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By Dale Roberts, Cutthecrapinvesting
Special to the Financial Independence Hub
You’ve worked for decades to build your retirement nest egg. You have invested smartly. The investment portfolio is required to fund a significant portion of your retirement years. In fact, you need those monies to last for many decades. Should you invest in an all-stock portfolio? That approach might deliver greater income than the traditional stock and bond portfolio.
Yup. More stocks might deliver more growth. No one can deny that stocks are the growth engine of a portfolio. When we own stocks we become business owners and we share in the success (or failure) of those companies. In the past, owning a big basket of market-leading companies has worked out more than well.
When stocks earn 8% we can spend 8%?
Retirement funding is tricky business. It’s much more complicated than the accumulation stage. The sequence of returns does not matter that much at all when we are building our portfolios, and we have decades until that retirement start date. We might see several good years that are followed by two or three bad years. Those bad years will not affect your retirement readiness when you have decades to recover. A savvy investor will even enjoy those bad years as the stocks go ‘on sale’.
But in retirement the order of stock market and portfolio returns do matter. That’s called sequence-of-returns risk. A bad year or a few bad years early in retirement can permanently impair your portfolio and your retirement. Even before that retirement start date we are already in the retirement risk zone.
But stocks beat the crap out of bonds
Most retirees and most financial planners will add some bonds to the portfolios of retirees. Those bonds work like shock absorbers. While there is no guarantee, good bonds have a habit of going up in price when stocks get hit hard. This is typical retirement planning ‘thinking’. And yes, there are other weapons besides bonds.
On Twitter we had a very robust discussion on retirement funding and risk. Financial Planner Ed Rempel defended the all-stock portfolio for retirees. And he provided some support with this chart:
According to Mr. Rempel, the success rate for an all equity portfolio is 97% for a period that spans over 100 years. Success is defined as the retiree being able to spend at 4% of the portfolio value, every year, with an adjustment equal to inflation. Of course that’s called the 4% rule. That’s a retirement planning benchmark that is useful, but is then usually disposed of for dozens of reasons. For Boomer and Echo I had asked if there was a new normal for Canadian retirees . Continue Reading…
