Stock market volatility can and will happen, which can really spook many investors.
To help with that, should you use an all-weather portfolio for changing market conditions?
Would an all-weather portfolio be best long-term?
How would I build an all-weather portfolio using Canadian ETFs?
Read on and find out our take, including the pros and cons of this all-weather investing approach.
The portfolio is designed for all seasons
If you prefer a more passive approach to investing, building an all-weather portfolio may be right for you. While this portfolio is designed to perform well during all seasons of the market, from an economic boom or bust and the messy stuff in between, we’ll see below that this approach is not without some flaws and drawbacks – just like any investing approach. Further, you could be missing out on some important aspects or assets for investing entirely.
Understanding how an all-weather portfolio works can help you to decide if this path could be right for you, or even if a blended all-weather approach could make much more sense.
What Is an All-Weather Portfolio?
Just as the name sounds, an all-weather portfolio is a portfolio that’s built to do well, regardless of changing market conditions.
This investing approach was popularized by Ray Dalio, a billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world. At the time of this post, Bridgewater currently manages over $140 billion in assets.
(FYI – this sounds very impressive of course, but we don’t invest in hedge funds and neither should you!)
Dalio’s all-weather philosophy is largely this:
Diversify your investments, hold specific asset classes in certain allocations, such that the portfolio can perform consistently throughout most economic conditions.
This includes periods of increasing volatility, rising inflation, and more. More specifically, this portfolio strategy is designed to help investors ride out four specific types of events:
Inflationary periods (rising prices)
Deflationary periods (falling prices)
Rising markets (bull/booming markets)
Falling markets (bear/busting markets)
How an All-Weather Portfolio Works
Based on back-testing, essentially Dalio and his Bridgewater team came up with a model after studying the relationship between asset class performance and changing market environments. The result of this relationship crystallized the following asset class allocation that would investors to benefit whether the market is moving up or down or sideways.
Here is the asset class breakdown:
We’ll provide more detailed funds to mimic this portfolio in a bit.
One thing you’ll realize from the portfolio above is the all-weather portfolio takes a much different approach than age-based allocations (i.e., more bonds as you get older in your portfolio), the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio, or other popular couch potato approaches. It essentially ignores an investor’s personal need for changing risk appetite. A drawback we’ll discuss more in a bit.
The theory of the All-Weather Portfolio is that:
The equity portion will thrive in bull markets.
Commodities and gold should support the portfolio for inflation.
Bonds will help investors when stock market growth is suffering…
Ignore stock market anxiety and negative stock predictions and instead focus your investing strategy on diversification and portfolio balance
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The current state of the world is generating stock market anxiety, as it often does. My guess is that the Israel-Hamas war is just getting started and will last a long time. I also suspect that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had something to do with getting it started, and will do what he can to keep it going. After all, when it comes to running his country, Putin takes a grasping-at-straws approach.
Putin may think that bringing the longstanding Mideast conflict back into the headlines is going to improve his chances of conquering Ukraine and bringing the Soviet Union back from the dead.
He thinks taking a long shot is better than no shot at all. Who knows? He might get lucky.
Early on in his war on Ukraine, Putin seemed to think that Chinese dictator Xi Jinping was going to take pity on him and his country, and offer free money and/or weapons to shore up Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Instead, Xi insists on staying out of the war, while paying discount prices for Russian oil. He takes special care not to let his country get caught up in the economic sanctions that the U.S. and NATO countries and allies are directing against the Russians.
It’s not that Putin is stupid. If a war between Israel and Hamas turns out to be a big drain on the U.S. budget, the U.S. might have less money available to arm Ukraine.
Up till lately, however, Israel has had little to say about Russia’s treatment of Ukraine. Israel may soon take a more active role in helping Ukraine defend itself.
Any war is a terrible thing, and this one is no different. The stock market seems to be creeping upward. Maybe it knows something that Putin hasn’t figured out.
Meanwhile, if your stock portfolio makes sense to you, we advise against selling due to Mideast fears.
Stock market anxiety recedes with investment quality, diversification and portfolio balance
You’ll find that many of your worries concern things that are unlikely to happen; that are already largely discounted in current stock prices; and that probably won’t matter as much as you feared they would.
You get a much better return on time spent if you devote less of it to worrying about high risk investments, and more of it to an investing strategy. Create a strategy that is built upon analyzing the quality and diversification of your investments, and the structure and balance of your portfolio.
There’s another advantage as well. A calm investor is much less likely to react in haste and make sudden decisions that could prove to be damaging in the long run. Continue Reading…
One of the most important developments in the financial world in recent years has been the growth of evidence-based investing. But what exactly is it? In the first of a new series of exclusive articles for Justwealth, the UK based author and journalist Robin Powell explains why founding your investment strategy on four basic principles can dramatically improve your chances of achieving your long-term goals.
By Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor
Special to Financial Independence Hub
It takes between seven and nine years to train to be a doctor in Canada. For surgeons it takes as many as 14. Even then, both doctors and surgeons are required to engage in continuous learning throughout their careers.
Becoming a financial adviser, investment consultant or money manager is considerably less onerous. What’s more, unless you deliberately set out to defraud your clients, you’re unlikely to be stripped of your right to operate.
Of course, there are still examples of poor medical practice. It was only as recently as the early 1990s that a group of epidemiologists at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, first coined the phrase evidence-based medicine. Sadly, though, professional malpractice in the investing industry is far more common, and there are many who have worked in it for decades and yet act as if they have little or no grasp of the evidence on how investing works.
A glaring illustration of this is a study published in May 2018 called The Misguided Belief of Financial Advisers. The researchers analyzed the returns achieved by around 4,400 advisers across Canada: both for their clients and for themselves. They found that the advisers made the same mistakes investing their own money as they did when investing their clients’ money.
For example, they traded too frequently, chased returns, preferred expensive, actively managed funds, and weren’t sufficiently diversified. All of those things have been shown, time and again, to lead to lower returns. On average, the clients of the advisers analyzed underperformed the market by around three per cent a year: a huge margin.
What is evidence-based investing?
In recent years, we’ve seen the development of what’s called evidence-based investing (EBI). Like evidence-based medicine, it entails the ongoing critical appraisal of evidence, rather than relying on traditional practices or expert opinions.
So what sort of evidence are we talking about? Essentially there are four main elements to the evidence that underpins EBI.
First, the evidence is based on research that is genuinely independent; in other words, the research wasn’t paid for or subsidized by organizations with a vested interest in the outcome.
Secondly, it’s peer-reviewed. This means that the findings are published in a peer-reviewed journal which is closely examined by experts on the subject.
Thirdly, the evidence is time-tested. Investment strategies often succeed over short time periods, but fail over longer ones. Investors should disregard any evidence that hasn’t stood the test of time.
Finally, the evidence results from rigorous data analysis. As everyone knows, data can be very misleading if it hasn’t been properly analysed.
The good news is that, even when all four of these filters are strictly applied, there is still plenty of evidence to inform our investment decisions. Since the 1950s, finance departments at universities across the globe have produced many thousands of relevant studies.
What does the evidence tell us?
What, then, are the main lessons from academic research on investing? This is a wide-ranging subject, and one we’ll look at in more detail in future articles, but there are four main takeaways.
Markets are broadly efficient
Because markets are competitive and prices reflect all knowable information, it’s very hard to identify stocks, bonds or entire asset classes which are either undervalued or overvalued at any one time. No, prices aren’t perfect, but they’re the most reliable guide we have as to how much a security is worth.
Diversification is an investor’s friend
It’s vital for investors to diversify across different asset classes, economic sectors and regions of the world. As well as reducing your risk, diversification can also improve your returns in the long run, and it is rightly referred to as “the only free lunch in investing.”
Costs make a big difference
The investing industry and the media tend to focus on investment performance. But while performance comes and goes, fees and charges never falter. Continue Reading…
“I will invest in the stock market when things calm down,” said my friend Mercedes after the market crashed following the COVID pandemic.
Another friend said something similar after the terrorist attack of 9/11.
The thing is that in the markets and in life, everything is always uncertain.
Even when everything seems calm, there might be a surprise the next hour. And when everything is chaotic, long periods of peace and calm may follow. Between WWI and WWII, there were 20 years and 9 months of peace and prosperity.
After WWII there have been almost 80 years of economic, scientific, and technological improvement.
* Countries like China, India, and Brazil took millions of people out of poverty.
* The information technology changed how business, governments, and people communicate.
* There have been medical breakthroughs for various diseases which have improved global health.
Dealing with uncertainty in the stock market isn’t too difficult. At my age (56), I have seen a few economic cycles. I know that markets go up and markets go down. The best action I can take is to sit on my hands and do nothing.
In our regular life, it’s more challenging. Life also works in cycles, but these cycles can be more difficult to discern, and we don’t always know what to do.
How to deal with uncertainty in Life
These are some tips from our community on how to deal with uncertainty:
Kelly Bron Johnson, IDEA Advisor Supporting Businesses to Create Completely Inclusive Workplace Cultures: I won’t lie – it makes me feel very destabilized. It affects all my planning. For example, right now the teachers are on strike and my kids are home from school. We don’t know how long it will go for. It’s hard to make plans and to work without knowing how long the strike will last. I just try to take one day at a time and one task at a time and keep going. Continue Reading…
Aspiring homeowners and families looking to invest in property often seek expert advice. To provide a range of perspectives, we’ve gathered sixteen pieces of advice from CEOs, founders, and other industry professionals. From understanding the market rather than chasing it, to securing a property warranty, this article offers a wealth of insights for property investment.
Understand, Don’t Chase, the Market
Consider Property’s Rentability
Diversify Your Real Estate Investments
Seek Immediate Return on Investment
Research and Plan Your Investment
Leverage Home Inspection Power
Invest in a Fixer-Upper
Consider Total Cost of Ownership
Have a Clear Exit Strategy
Start Small in Property Investment
Diversify Your Real Estate Portfolio
Think Long-Term for Value Appreciation
Look into Emerging Neighborhoods
Define Your Investment Goals
Establish a Clear Budget
Secure a Property Warranty
Understand, don’t chase, the Market
If there’s one piece of advice I consistently circle back to, it’s this: don’t just chase the market, understand it. Now, that might sound a bit cliche, but let me unpack that for you with an example and a personal anecdote.
Many aspiring homeowners or investors get drawn into this frenzy of buying property anywhere there’s a buzz. You know, a new major employer coming into the area, a big infrastructure project announcement, or maybe where there’s a sudden spike in property values. But here’s the twist: not every “hot” market is suitable for every investor. — Shri Ganeshram, CEO and Founder, Awning.com
Consider Property’s Rentability
I’d suggest considering the “rentability” of the property. If your circumstances change and you need to move, having a property that’s attractive to renters can provide a steady income stream.
Look for properties with features that are in high demand in the rental market, such as a good layout, modern amenities, and proximity to employment centers. I’ve seen clients turn unexpected relocations into opportunities by choosing properties that are easy to rent, thereby securing a secondary income source. — Alexander Capozzolo, CEO, SD House Guys
Diversify your Real Estate Investments
Different types of real estate investments, such as residential properties, commercial properties, or vacation rentals, can react differently to market fluctuations. By spreading your investments across various property types, I’ve seen how it can reduce the overall risk associated with real estate investing.
I’ve witnessed that diversification can provide a more stable income stream. For instance, while one property might experience a vacancy, another may continue to generate rental income.
I’ve found that different markets may perform differently at various times. By advising clients to invest in properties in different geographic locations, I’ve seen them benefit from a broader range of market conditions. — Ritika Asrani, Owner and Head Broker, St Maarten Real Estate
Seek Immediate Return on Investment
One piece of real estate investment advice I’d give is to focus on buying property that can give you a return on investment (ROI) immediately. That’s because when interest rates are high, property prices decrease, making it harder to know what kind of appreciation you can expect in the future.
As a bonus tip, invest where there are median-priced homes to maximize your returns. For example, if you invest in a $300,000 house with an 8% versus a 4% interest rate, the mortgage difference would be just $615 per month.
On the other hand, if you invest in a $1 million property with the same interest rates (8% versus 4%), the mortgage difference you’d pay would be over $2,000 per month.
Ultimately, to maximize your returns and minimize risk as an investor, buy properties that will give you cash flow from day one and limit your mortgage payments. — Ryan Chaw, Founder and Real Estate Investor, Newbie Real Estate Investing
Research and Plan your Investment
Thoroughly research the local real estate market dynamics. Understand not only current property values but also potential growth or decline in the area. In our global property management experience, we’ve seen the value in choosing properties located in areas with growing job opportunities, infrastructure development, and a strong community presence.
Additionally, always factor in the long-term perspective: real estate typically appreciates over time, so patience and a well-planned strategy can yield returns. Consider your investment goals and financial capabilities carefully. Determine whether you seek rental income, capital appreciation, or both. Calculate a budget, including property purchase, maintenance, and potential vacancies.
Finally, don’t underestimate the significance of a property management company, especially if investing in different locations or operating remotely. Their expertise can help navigate property investment complexities and ensure your investment thrives. — Johan Hajji, CEO and Founder, UpperKey
Leverage Home Inspection Power
One tip I’d offer is to leverage the power of “home inspection” before finalizing any deal. A thorough inspection can reveal potential issues like structural damage or outdated electrical systems, allowing you to either negotiate the price or avoid a money pit.
I‘ve had clients who saved thousands by using the findings of a home inspection to negotiate a lower purchase price, turning what could have been a costly mistake into a savvy investment. — Gagan Saini, CEO, JIT Home Buyers
Invest in a Fixer-Upper
My career in remodeling and carpentry started with a real estate investment. I bought a home in disrepair for very little money and began piecing it together, learning how to perform various construction tasks along the way.
At first, I just got one room livable. Then, at night and on weekends, piece by piece, I finished the kitchen, then the bathroom, then the basement. If you enjoy problem-solving and working with your hands, you’ll enjoy a fixer-upper much more than a property that you paint and resell. — Rick Berres, Owner, Honey-Doers
Consider Total Cost of Ownership
One piece of advice would be to think long term and consider the “total cost of ownership,” not just the purchase price. This includes property taxes, maintenance, and potential homeowner association (HOA) fees.
I recommend it to create a detailed budget that accounts for these ongoing costs to ensure the investment is sustainable in the long run. Clients who’ve taken this holistic approach have been better prepared for the financial responsibilities of property ownership, avoiding unexpected financial strain down the line. — Erik Wright, CEO, New Horizon Home Buyers
Have a Clear Exit Strategy
Have a solid exit plan from the get-go. It’s not just about buying a property; it’s about understanding how you’re going to profit from it. Are you looking for long-term rental income, or do you plan to flip the property for a quick return?
Having a clear strategy helps you make informed decisions and ensures that your investment aligns with your financial goals. Real estate can be a fantastic wealth-building tool, but knowing your exit strategy keeps you on the right path to success. — Loren Howard, Founder, Prime Plus Mortgages
Start Small in Property Investment
Start small. For aspiring homeowners or families looking to invest in property, it is important to start small. While it may be tempting to jump into a larger, more expensive property as your first investment, starting with a smaller and more affordable property can be a smarter financial decision in the long run.
By starting small, you will have less risk and financial burden, allowing you to learn and gain experience in the real estate market without being overwhelmed. Additionally, starting small will also give you a better understanding of your financial capabilities and help you make more informed decisions for future investments.
Furthermore, starting with a smaller property can also provide potential for quicker returns on investment. With lower purchase prices and potentially lower maintenance costs, you may be able to see profits sooner than with a larger, more expensive property. — Keith Sant, CMO, Eazy House Sale
Diversify your Real Estate Portfolio
I would advise diversifying your portfolio if you’re searching for real estate investment tips. Think about making investments in a variety of real estate, including commercial, residential, and even holiday rentals. This diversification can create several income streams while reducing risk. Continue Reading…
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