Tag Archives: short-term bonds

Do you really need an Emergency Fund?

Photo by Mark König on Unsplash

By Anita Bruinsma, CFA

Clarity Personal Finance

One of the most agreed-upon financial planning concepts is the importance of an emergency fund. Having quick access to money to pay for an unexpected expense or job loss can prevent unwanted credit card debt and can lower stress levels.

Not everyone is on board though. Some people feel that keeping money in cash instead of investing it means you’re sacrificing too much potential growth. This might be a particularly true for people who are targeting financial freedom. Since investing is an important component of reaching financial goals, it’s understandable that you don’t want to drag down your overall rate of return by holding cash.

Having access to money for unexpected expenses, though, is important for pretty much everyone. So do you need an emergency fund and if you do, how much should it be?

Do you need an emergency fund?

If you have a home equity line of credit (HELOC), you might not need funds sitting in a savings account. Whether it’s a good idea to depend on your HELOC as an emergency fund depends on two main factors: if you had to borrow from it, how long would it take you to pay if off and what is the rate of interest you’re paying?

Generally, as long as the rate of interest on the line of credit is below what you could expect to earn in the stock market, and assuming you’re able to pay down the line of credit within a reasonable time period, then using your line of credit isn’t a bad idea. The key is to make sure you are disciplined in paying down the line of credit quickly, otherwise the interest cost will outweigh what you could earn in the market.

How much do you need?

For those who don’t have a HELOC or who prefer to have a safety net in cash, determining the right amount of money to keep in an easy-to-access, low-return account is important.

There are really two kinds of emergency funds: one that will pay your expenses if you lose your job or can’t work for a period of time, and one that will pay for the large, unpredictable expenses that crop up in everyday life.

The job loss emergency fund

Job loss can mean you were laid off or that you can’t work due to illness, an accident, or a personal/family crisis. You might have heard the standard advice that says you need 3-6 months’ worth of living expense to protect against a job loss. Like all personal finance shortcuts, this isn’t necessarily helpful. How much you need in an emergency fund is highly dependent on your situation.

Here are the main factors that influence how much you should have set aside in your job loss emergency fund:

  1. Do you have job stability? If your industry is known for sudden layoffs or if your role might be considered non-essential to an organization, you have a higher risk of losing your job and it might take you longer to find a new one. It would be wise to have a bigger cushion than someone who works in a stable industry or performs an essential role.
  1. Do you have disability insurance? If you have an accident or get really sick, you’ll receive some kind of payment while you have to take time off work. It won’t necessarily be enough but it will help and you’ll need a smaller emergency fund. If you expect to receive no pay if you need to take time off work, you need a bigger emergency fund.  
  1. What kind of lifestyle do you want to maintain? If you are laid off, you’ll need to pare back your spending. But to what extent? What do you consider to be “essential”? Are the kids’ swimming lessons essential? What about your gym membership? Understanding what essential means to you will help you decide how much to set aside.
  1. Do you have a partner or spouse? If you have a partner or spouse with whom you share the financial responsibilities of running a household and they are employed, would they be able to cover the essentials if you lost your job? How would your lifestyle be impacted? What is their job stability like? Do they work in the same industry as you do? If so, there might be a higher risk of both of you being laid off at the same time.
  1. Do you have savings in a TFSA or a non-registered account? If all of your money is in RRSPs or your pension, you don’t have any good options for withdrawing money in an emergency. However, you could choose to rely on your TFSA or non-registered funds for a portion of your needs.

The large expense emergency fund

For your large expense emergency fund, the amount you want to have available depends on how many opportunities for unexpected expenses you are exposed to and what other resources you could draw on. Continue Reading…

Get Income at the Short End

Franklin Templeton/iStock

By Brian Calder,

Franklin Bissett Investment Management

(Sponsor Content)

Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide: that could be the description of the 2022 investor year. It has been a difficult 2022, and many investors are looking to enhance their cash positions while preserving capital, given market volatility and rising interest rates. In this environment of high inflation, higher rates, and slow economic growth, an ultra-short duration bond strategy could be timely.

The major equity and bond markets have been hit hard this year by geopolitical shocks, fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, and sluggish growth. Rapid and aggressive moves by major central banks to increase interest rates resulted in a flat or inverted bond yield curve and contributed to elevated market volatility. An inverted yield curve means that interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than those of long-term bonds. For instance, on October 6, 2022, the yield on the three-month Government of Canada bond was around 3.68%, while the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond was 3.34%.

An inverted yield curve is often seen as a pessimistic market signal about the prospects for the wider economy in the near term. Bond markets have priced in even more interest rate hikes from central banks like the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

So, rather than thinking about being ‘ahead of the curve,’ it may be time for investors to be at the front of the curve.

These challenging market conditions are ideal for an ultra-short-duration bond strategy. Duration is a number that’s used to measure how sensitive a bond’s price is to changes in interest rates:  how much the price is likely to change as rates change. The longer the duration, the greater the sensitivity to shifts in interest rates for a bond. Understanding the use of duration can help an investor determine the position of bonds in a portfolio.

Time for short-term thinking

At the front end of the federal government bond yield curve, opportunities are available for investors because the curve remains flat in the middle and at the back end. A yield comparison of the Canadian market as of August 31, 2022, showed that an ultra-short duration strategy outperformed three-month Treasury bills and was competitive with one-year to three-year government bonds. Because short-term yields are less sensitive to rate hikes, they can be more protected and stable, plus they are not as exposed to potential drawdowns like those seen in strategies with longer-term exposures.

Also, an ultra-short duration strategy can be less volatile than longer bonds (see chart).

 

Continue Reading…