Tag Archives: stocks

Is short-termism hurting your investment?

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By Bob Lai, Tawcan
Special to Financial Independence Hub

Are you a patient investor? Or are you looking at your portfolio multiple times a day, having the itch to sell everything? Despite having done DIY investing for over a decade and making my shares of investment mistakes in the past, I am still learning about investing on a daily basis.

One key lesson I’ve learned is short-termism will hurt your investment. As investors, we need to have patience and a long term view.

What is short-termism?

Per Wikipedia, short-termism is giving priority to immediate profit, quickly executed projects and short-term results, over long term results and far-seeing action.

On the surface, it seems that short-termism is associated with investment strategies like day trading, momentum trading, short selling, and options trading. However, I believe many investors that invest in individual dividend stocks and passive index ETFs often fall into the short-termism trap as well.

How so?

On one hand, it’s about short-term profit taking. On the other hand, it’s about paying too much attention to the short-term share price movement and feeling the need to tweak your investment portfolio. Some common portfolio management questions I’ve seen on Facebook and Twitter are:

“Should I take profits when the stock goes up and re-invest the money later? Give me a reason why I shouldn’t sell and should just hold?”

“I purchased Royal Bank at $110. It’s frustrating seeing the share price going up to $150 and then dropping back down to $125. Should I sell when the stock is at a 52-week high and buy back when the stock price dips?”

“I have a small paper loss on Brookfield Asset Management, I don’t think the company is doing well, should I sell and invest the money elsewhere?”

“I bought some Apple shares recently. Apple had a terrible quarter and I’m down. I’m convinced that Apple is going to crash and burn. Should I sell and run now?”

And the questions go on and on…

Why do we fall into the short-termism trap?

There are many reasons why we fall into the short-termism trap. Some of the common reasons I believe are:

  • The need to be correct – we as investors want to see our investments increase in value once we make the purchase. When this happens, it means we’re right and made the correct investment decision. If the share price goes down, that must mean we are wrong and are terrible at investing. The need to be correct becomes a burning desire. Nobody wants to be told that they are wrong and be the laughingstock.
  • The need to be validated – we all have the need to be validated by others but for some reason, this need is even stronger when it comes to investing. We want others to validate that we made the right investment decision so we can feel good inside. The desire to be validated can be like drugs, once someone validates you, you begin to want even more. The need to be validated is a very slippery slope…
  • Looking for gains right away – It’s exciting to see investment gains. It is even more exuberating to see significant gains in a few days. It’s like going to the casino and winning 1000 times on your bet or winning the lottery. Why wait for five years to see multi-bagger gains when you can get the same type of gains in a week? Long-term investing is for losers!
  • Ego – for some reason we all believe we are better investors than who we truly are. Believe me, I fall into this trap from time to time. Deep inside, we believe that we can predict how companies will do in the future accurately by looking at past performance and public information.

How to escape the short-termism trap?

So how do we escape the short-termism trap? I think the best method is to understand your short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals. Are you investing for the short-term or are you investing for the long-term? Knowing this will dictate what kind of investments you should buy. Continue Reading…

Value Investing: Looking beneath the surface

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Image from Outcome/QuoteInspector.com.

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It goes without saying that 2022 was a less than stellar year for equity investors. The MSCI All Country World Index of stocks fell 18.4%. There was virtually nowhere to hide, with equities in nearly every country and region suffering significant losses. Canadian stocks were somewhat of a standout, with the TSX Composite Index falling only 5.8% for the year.

Looking below the surface, there was an interesting development underlying these broader market movements, with value stocks far outpacing their growth counterparts. Globally, value stocks suffered a loss of 7.5% as compared to a decline of 28.6% in growth stocks. This substantial outperformance was pervasive across countries and regions, including the U.S., Europe, Asia, and emerging markets. In the U.S., 2022’s outperformance of value stocks was the highest since the collapse of the tech bubble in 2000.

These historically outsized numbers have left investors wondering whether value’s outperformance has any legs left and/or whether they should now be tilting their portfolios in favor of a relative rebound in growth stocks. As the following missive demonstrates, value stocks are far more likely than not to continue outperforming.

Context is everything: Value is the “Dog” that finally has its Day

From a contextual perspective, 2022 followed an unprecedented period of value stock underperformance.

U.S Value vs. U.S. Growth Stocks – Rolling 3 Year Returns: 1982-2022

 

Although there have been (and will be) times when value stocks underperform their growth counterparts, the sheer scale of value’s underperformance in the several years preceding 2022 is almost without precedent in modern history. The extent of value vs. growth underperformance is matched only by that which occurred during growth stocks’ heyday in the internet bubble of the late 1990s.

Shades of Tech Bubble Insanity

The relative performance of growth vs. value stocks cannot be deemed either rational or irrational without analyzing their relative valuations. To the extent that the phenomenal winning streak of growth vs. value stocks in the runup to 2022 can be justified by commensurately superior earnings growth, it can be construed as rational. On the other hand, if the “rubber” of growth’s outperformance never met the “road” of superior profits, then at the very least you need to consider the possibility that crazy (i.e. greed, hope, etc.) had indeed entered the building.

The extreme valuations reached by many growth companies during the height of the pandemic bring to mind a warning that was issued by a market commentator during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, who stated that the prices of many stocks were “not only discounting the future, but also the hereafter.”

U.S. Value Stocks: Valuation Discount to U.S. Growth Stocks: (1995-2022)

 

Based on forward PE ratios, at the end of 2021 U.S. value stocks stood at a 56.3% discount to U.S. growth stocks. From a historical perspective, this discount is over double the average discount of 27.9% since 1995 and is matched only by the 56.6% discount near the height of the tech bubble in early 2000. This valuation anomaly was not just a U.S. phenomenon, with global value stocks hitting a 57.5% discount to global growth stocks, more than twice their average discount of 27.6% since 2002 and even larger than that which prevailed in early 2000 at the peak of the tech mania. Continue Reading…

Investing in Crypto or Stocks: Which is safer for your Portfolio?

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Considering whether to buy crypto or stocks? Investing in top stocks makes a lot more sense than buying crypto and we explain why in this article.

Are you interested in investing in crypto or stocks? I still can’t think of anything that would make me optimistic on bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, even after the deep slump the whole sector has gone through recently. The best thing I can say about bitcoin is that it will probably remain volatile, rather than vaporizing like the worst crypto performers.

Please don’t misunderstand. I respect and agree with the many investors who have high expectations for the future of blockchain. (That’s the digital technique that serves as a foundation for bitcoin and other crypto creations.) Some investor/digital gurus think blockchain will change the world. They may be right. However, bitcoin is simply the earliest and most widely known blockchain user.

Bitcoin’s stature as a blockchain poster child has earned it plenty of media and public recognition. But bitcoin’s link with blockchain has no bearing on the future of bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency) as a substitute for money.

This may surprise respondents to a recent survey about their plans for retirement financing. One quarter of those surveyed, and 30% of millennials, said they were planning to rely on “cryptocurrencies” to finance some of their golden years.

Should I invest in crypto or stocks? Understanding false narratives and how it relates to Bitcoin investment risk

The term “false narrative” has been around at least since the 1830s, but came into common use around the time of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Each of the two main political parties accused the other of concocting and spreading an incomplete and/or biased story that falsely showed their candidate in a bad light.

However, it’s easy to concoct your own false narrative and let it guide your financial decisions. Widespread false narratives happen rarely enough that they find a way into history. Personal false narratives happen much more often. But each one is a little different from the next, and most people would prefer not to talk about them.

Here is a look at a false narrative involving Bitcoin investment risk: Continue Reading…

Are Dividend investors leading the charge?

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By Dale Roberts

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Where have all of the investors gone? It’s no surprise that “advised” Canadian mutual fund investors have been bailing on the wealth building thing. Most of them are sold high-fee funds and see little or no advice. They lose out on two counts. And in 2022 even ETF investors have largely bailed on buying growth assets (stocks and REITs) as they go on sale. The ETF’ers are moving to cash ETFs and bonds. Where I see continued enthusiasm (OK, they are rabid) is in the Canadian dividend investor camp. They love the lower prices that can bring bigger dividend payments. Dividend investors are leading the charge on the Sunday Reads.

ETFs gained while mutual funds felt pain in 2022.

From that Advisor’s Edge post …

As of the end of November, Canadian mutual funds had outflows of $35.6 billion in 2022, or 2% of 2021 year-end assets, National Bank Financial (NBF) said in a report on Jan. 5th. (Full-year mutual fund data is yet to come.)

“Only money market mutual funds recorded inflows, an indication of the capital-preservation mode that informed many investor decisions this year,” it said.

During 2021’s rising markets, mutual fund sales soared to a dramatic record-breaking $112 billion, outselling ETFs for the first time since 2018.

ETFs back on top

Canadian ETF inflows in 2022 landed back on top, with a “whopping” $35.5 billion in net flows in 2022, or 10% or of 2021 year-end assets, the report said.

As part of tactical positioning, cash-alternative ETFs were a “major story” of 2022, the report said, describing them as “an inflow darling” since the first such fund was launched in 2013. In 2022, the funds more than doubled in assets to $15 billion amid the year’s bond selloff. CI High Interest Savings ETF was the fund with the most inflow ($3.2 billion) for the year.

Equity ETFs scored $13 billion in 2022, or about 37% of ETF net flows.

(Back to Dale)

The move to safety

So while ETF investors did add equities in modest fashion, there was a greater move to safety: cash and bonds. Of course, we’re supposed to do the opposite: buy more growth assets as they go on sale. You know that ‘be greedy when others are fearful’ Warren Buffett kind of thinking.

I’ve continued to ask readers:  what stocks and ETFs are you buying? That post was from the end of September. Looking back that was near the bottom for 2022. Stocks have bounced back modestly from the time of the post. We could go below September of 2022 prices or not. Who knows? But sale prices are good, that we know.

On Findependence Hub: how to navigate the coming worldwide recession.

Dividend investors are on FIRE

While focusing (too much) on the dividends can have its drawbacks, there’s no denying that dividend investing leads to very good behaviour. I am truly pleased to see that Canadian dividend investors (friends) are chomping at the bit to buy more stocks and greater dividends.

On My Own Advisor, Mark offers the Weekend Reading: Dividends on FIRE edition. Thanks to Mark for including my Canadian Wide Moat Stock Portfolio update.

In Mark’s post you’ll find a few portfolio and dividend focused updates for the investing year of 2022. Included in the mix – drip investor, and Jordan at Money Maaster.

Mark also offered his recent portfolio update.

Rob at Passive Canadian Income updated his dividend and portfolio performance for December in this post.

Totals For 2022

Dividends Year To Date Total – $10,692.84
Other Passive Income Year to date – $13,491.23
Total Passive Income for 2022 —– $24,184.07
Year End Goal – $25,000

Canadian stocks are offering very good value these days. Kyle delivered a very good post on MoneySense – Making sense of the markets. Kyle included some very good broader market and investment commentary. And on Canadian stocks …

Our current P/E valuation discount relative to the U.S.’s S&P 500 shows that as a group, Canadian stocks are substantially cheaper than in the past when compared to American stocks.

That crazy good savings rate

For some inspiration Bob offers 9 weird things he did to save money in his 20s. Bob has always had a crazy (good) savings rate. That is certainly one of the keys to building wealth. It’s not what you make, but what you keep, and then what and how you invest. Continue Reading…

All good things must come to an end: There by the grace of Paul Volcker went Asset Prices

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Image courtesy Creative Commons/Outcome

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

During the OPEC oil embargo of the early 1970s, the price of oil jumped from roughly $24 to almost $65 in less than a year, causing a spike in the cost of many goods and services and igniting runaway inflation.

At that time, the workforce was much more unionized, with many labour agreements containing cost of living wage adjustments which were triggered by rising inflation.

The resulting increases in workers’ wages spurred further inflation, which in turn caused additional wage increases and ultimately led to a wage-price spiral.The consumer price index, which stood at 3.2% in 1972, rose to 11.0% by 1974. It then receded to a range of 6%-9% for four years before rebounding to 13.5% in 1980.

Image New York Times/Outcome

After being appointed Fed Chairman in 1979, Paul Volcker embarked on a vicious campaign to break the back of inflation, raising rates as high as 20%. His steely resolve brought inflation down to 3.2% by the end of 1983, setting the stage for an extended period of low inflation and falling interest rates. The decline in rates was turbocharged during the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, which prompted the Fed to adopt extremely stimulative policies and usher in over a decade of ultra-low rates.

Importantly, Volcker’s take no prisoners approach was largely responsible for the low inflation, declining rate, and generally favourable investment environment that prevailed over the next four decades.

How declining Interest Rates affect Asset Prices: Let me count the ways

The long-term effects of low inflation and declining rates on asset prices cannot be understated. According to [Warren] Buffett:

“Interest rates power everything in the economic universe. They are like gravity in valuations. If interest rates are nothing, values can be almost infinite. If interest rates are extremely high, that’s a huge gravitational pull on values.”

On the earnings front, low rates make it easier for consumers to borrow money for purchases, thereby increasing companies’ sales volumes and revenues. They also enhance companies’ profitability by lowering their cost of capital and making it easier for them to invest in facilities, equipment, and inventory. Lastly, higher profits and asset prices create a virtuous cycle – they cause a wealth effect where people feel richer and more willing to spend, thereby further spurring company profits and even higher asset prices.

Declining rates also exert a huge influence on valuations. The fair value of a company can be determined by calculating the present value of its future cash flows. As such, lower rates result in higher multiples, from elevated P/E ratios on stocks to higher multiples on operating income from real estate assets, etc.

The effects of the one-two punch of higher earnings and higher valuations unleashed by decades of falling rates cannot be overestimated. Stocks had an incredible four decade run, with the S&P 500 Index rising from a low of 102 in August 1982 to 4,796 by the beginning of 2022, producing a compound annual return of 10.3%. For private equity and other levered strategies, the macroeconomic backdrop has been particularly hospitable, resulting in windfall profits.

It is with good reason and ample evidence that investing legend Marty Zweig concluded:

“In the stock market, as with horse racing, money makes the mare go. Monetary conditions exert an enormous influence on stock prices. Indeed, the monetary climate – primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy – is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.”

To be sure, there are other factors that provided tailwinds for markets over the last 40 years. Advances in technology and productivity gains bolstered profit margins. Limited military conflict undoubtedly played its part. Increased globalization and China’s massive contributions to global productive capacity also contributed to a favourable investment climate. These influences notwithstanding, 40 years of declining interest rates and cheap money have likely been the single greatest driver of rising asset prices.

All Good things must come to an End

The low inflation which enabled central banks to maintain historically low rates and keep the liquidity taps flowing has reversed course. In early 2021, inflation exploded through the upper band of the Fed’s desired range, prompting it to begin raising rates and embark on one of the quickest rate-hiking cycles in history. Continue Reading…