When we started our financial independence journey back in 2011, we didn’t set a specific FI date or number. In our minds, we do not doubt whether we could become financially independent or not. We knew we’d become financially independent in the future. It was just a question of time. We simply needed to have patience and let our investments compound over time.
A few years into our FI journey, our FI plan started to evolve. Rather than having a specific liquid net worth and utilizing the 4% safe withdrawal rule, we decided to have enough dividend income to cover our expenses. Looking at the calendar, we randomly set a target of reaching this milestone by 2025 or earlier.
It’s funny how ten years seemed to have gone by in the blink of an eye. At the same time, a lot has happened in our lives…
Getting engaged and married
Having two kids
Moving from an apartment in Vancouver to a house in the suburb
Me having different job titles, going from engineering to project managing to product marketing to engineering
Starting my photography business ( I’ve been on a bit of break the last few years)
Starting this blog, writing articles, learning new things, and connecting with other like-minded people
One thing I’ve realized is that life is never static. It’s always dynamic. Although we can do as many projections and make as many plans as we possibly can, projections and plans do and will change. Therefore, with three years to go before 2025, I thought it would be a good time to re-examine our financial independence plans and see if we need to make any adjustments.
Our FI numbers
Since starting our FI journey, we have tracked our expenses meticulously. Here are our annual expenses since 2012:
Total Necessities
Total Annual Spending
2012
$26,210.52
$44,603.76
2013
$26,343.00
$45,260.88
2014
$29,058.96
$47,391.96
2015
$31,256.88
$47,270.16
2016
$29,831.40
$47,566.96
2017
$33,887.68
$51,144.77
2018
$31,840.75
$57,231.99
2019
$33,199.98
$54,906.02
2020
$35,511.60
$48,908.74
2021
$38,950.66
$71,852.02
Necessities cover core expenses like food, insurance, housing, clothing, utilities, car, etc. Other expenses are considered as non-core expenses which include things like dining out, skiing, camping, travel, charitable donations, gifts, etc.
The last two years have been abnormal in terms of spending. Due to the pandemic, our spending was much lower than usual in 2020. Then last year we had unplanned expenses of around $16,500 on our cat and our house. If we take this amount out, it’d put our 2021 annual spending to around $55,000.
Based on our historical spending trend, I would estimate that we need somewhere between $50,000 to $60,000 in dividend income annually to cover our expenses. To be on the safe side, I’d use $60,000 annual spending for any FI plans because we need to have inherent built-in flexibility on variables outside of our control, like major purchases, emergencies, etc.
The $60k annual spending estimate, of course, assumes that we continue to live in Vancouver and do not have many significant changes in our spending habits.
One thing to keep in mind is our spending can drastically come down if we decide to geo-arbitrage by moving to a smaller Canadian town or somewhere in South East Asia with a lower cost of living than Vancouver. On the flip side, the spending number can increase if we move to Denmark and live there for a few years (I’m ignoring the tax consequences for now).
How much do we need in our dividend portfolio?
How much do we need in our dividend portfolio to generate $60,000 in dividend income? Let’s do a quick math exercise, shall we?
For $60,000 dividend income per year, at 3% dividend yield, we’d need a dividend portfolio worth $2 million; at 4% dividend yield, we’d need a dividend portfolio worth $1.5 million. In other words, we need a portfolio valued between $1.5 million to $2 million. That’s certainly not a small chunk of change.
Now, if we take a middle-of-the-road approach and use a portfolio dividend yield of 3.5%, that means a portfolio value of around $1.714 million.
One thing is clear – we need to continue to save and invest money in our dividend portfolio. We also need to find the right mix between high-yield low-dividend growth stocks and low-yield high-dividend growth stocks.
With three years remaining in our FI timeline, it might be tempting to start buying more very-high-yield dividend stocks to make sure we can reach our FI target. But it is very important to make sure our dividend income is safe and remains sustainable over time. We definitely don’t want to hit $60,000 in dividend income one year only to see that amount slashed by 20% or more the next year.
The stability of our dividend income is extremely vital.
We also want to make sure the portfolio value continues to appreciate over time. The rationale is simple – total returns matter. Having a stable and safe dividend income and a portfolio that increases value over time will give us more options.
By 2025, both Mrs. T and I will be in our early 40s. With decades ahead of us, we need to ensure our dividend income can grow organically over time and inflation doesn’t eat into our dividend income’s buying power. It will be necessary to have some low-yield high-dividend growth stocks in our portfolio to allow for organic dividend growth.
The plan of living off dividends
Living off dividends is an amazing idea. Based on my dividend income projection, we should receive $51,000 in dividend income in 2025. However, when we compare that number with the $60,000 annual spending target, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that we are short by several thousand dollars. Continue Reading…
Some readers have maxed out their TFSA and RRSP. Now what?
Here are some recent reader questions and comments (adapted for site):
Reader 1:
“I’ve finally been able to max out my TFSA and RRSP. I’m 41. Now what? Should I consider investing in a taxable account? If so, what should I own?”
Reader 2:
“Mark, I’ve been reading your site for years. I’ve put a priority on paying down our mortgage for many years now, and striving to max out our kids’ Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) every year for their financial future. Those have been priorities number one and two for years.
When the TFSA came along, I thought it would be an excellent place to keep our family emergency fund for our house repairs and small renovations in a tax-free way but I’ve since realized by reading your site that I should have thought of this as an investment account (like you did) since day 1. I now invest in low-cost ETFs inside this account and I’ve never looked back! I have a six-figure portfolio thanks to you!
Now, with the mortgage balance down the high-five figures; RESPs maxed for our two kids and now our TFSAs maxed out as well – I’m thinking we should work on maxing out the RRSPs like you have and eventually get into taxable investing if we can.
Thoughts on my approach?”
Reader 3:
“Mark, I have been an avid reader of your blog for the last two years but this is my first intervention 🙂 Better later than never! My question today is how I can diversify my portfolio even more?
I’ve maxed out my registered accounts (RRSP: $32,000 in VEQT and TFSA: $75,000 also in VEQT) and invested significant chunks of money in a non-registered account ($50,000 in VEQT). I’m also helping my cousin with his RESP. I’ve also got an emergency fund with Tangerine.
At only 29, and single, I think I am off to a good start but it would be nice to find more ways to diversify my investments. I still have another $10,000 that I want to invest. What are some options?
Real estate? (not sure about this) Maybe Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)?
Crowdfunding?
Peer-to-peer lending? (seems risky)
Other?
Looking forward to your thoughts Mark!”
Wow, great stuff readers.
I mean, people thinking about investing inside your taxable accounts after your registered accounts are maxed; readers paying down their mortgage while diligently investing; folks wondering how to invest in a taxable account now that their emergency fund, TFSA and RRSP are managed and full: amazing stuff!
What’s The One Expense In Retirement That Most People Get The Least Satisfaction Out Of Spending?
Hint:
I love a warm fire on a cold, snowy day. But that same fire, if not properly contained, can do damage to anything in it’s way. Kind of like taxes.
Perhaps extreme to compare a roaring fire to taxes, but hear me out. Whatever goes into the fireplace (or to the government), you will never see (or spend) again.
Fortunately, much can be done with a little knowledge and planning. It’s useful to think of taxes as yet another, substantial retirement expense that needs to be managed.
Revisit/Understand Your Overall Financial Situation
At least 10 years before retirement, do some critical thinking about your finances.
Where will your retirement income and (cash flow) come from and when? What is the breakdown between “tax-paid” and “tax-deferred” money? Will your retirement cash flow be enough to meet your needs (or too much … a nice problem to have!)? How likely are you to receive an inheritance (or other money) that could push you into a higher tax bracket? Would it make sense to retire early and withdraw some funds sooner at a lower tax rate?
Making smarter investment choices is one of the key elements in building up adequate retirement savings. [1] People are constantly inundated with sales pitches for investment opportunities from banks, insurance companies, and their friends and relatives. For those with limited investment knowledge, this can be intimidating. The natural inclination is to seek advice from a professional investment advisor; however, many investment advisors may be motivated to recommend the investment vehicles that pay them the highest commission. In this environment, it’s wise for individual investors to have a basic knowledge of investments. This paper aims to provide seven fundamental principles that should lead to smarter investment decisions.
1. Ignore ‘hot’ investment tips
Investments are inherently risky; some have lower risk, others have higher risk. It is socially common for co-workers, friends, or relatives to announce that they have the inside scoop on an investment opportunity that is going to have a high return, if it is acted on immediately. To compound this, people tend to discuss their winning stock picks publicly, but do not readily disclose their losers. The media often provides flashy investment advice that may not be right for a vast majority of investors, while sensationalizing world events in the context of stock markets. There are constant psychological triggers to buy and sell securities without adequate knowledge built into everyday life, and acting on these triggers can be the single biggest threat to the long-term financial health of an investor.
Conclusion: Acting immediately on information from friends, family, and the media may lead to a bad investment experience.
2. Have a basic knowledge of investment vehicles
There are many ways for individuals to invest their savings in financial markets. The most common ways to invest include stocks and bonds, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Individual stocks and bonds are inherently risky investments requiring in-depth knowledge of the underlying company being considered. It is highly unlikely that individual investors will have the time, background, or resources to conduct the necessary analysis on enough companies to build a portfolio that is positioned to outperform a passive investment in a benchmark index – even professional money managers have trouble achieving this consistently[2]. An alternative is to invest in a basket of stocks and bonds in such a way that diversifies away the risk associated with any individual company. The exact number of securities that it takes to build an optimally well-diversified portfolio is up for debate, but it is safe to say that buying a handful of stocks and hoping for the best is not ideal.
Mutual funds are vehicles that allow investors to obtain a well-diversified portfolio through a pre-packaged product. For this service, investors pay a fee to the mutual fund company, referred to as management expense ratio (MER). The MER pays for the fund’s manager and other expenses. Many mutual fund companies claim that their managers have special predictive insights and the ability to find stocks that are poised to increase in price more than their peers. These actively managed funds have significantly higher fees than a mutual fund that simply buys all of the stocks in an index, called an index mutual fund, or index fund. The high fees paid to actively managed mutual funds could be warranted if they produced superior performance, but an overwhelming amount of evidence shows that superior long-term performance is not likely[3]. Currently, 98.5% of the assets invested in Canadian domiciled mutual funds are invested in actively managed mutual funds[4].
ETFs, like index mutual funds, invest passively in an index. ETFs tend to have much lower fees than mutual funds due to their underlying structure, while still allowing investors to invest in a well-diversified basket of securities.
Conclusion: It is not practical for the average investor to build a well-diversified portfolio using individual stocks and bonds. There is sufficient empirical evidence to show that actively managed mutual funds, on average, do not show any superior performance over index mutual funds. Investors are likely better off investing in index ETFs or low cost index mutual funds.
3. Understand the risk-return trade-off
Most investors build their portfolio using some mix of stocks and bonds; this is known as their asset mix. Stocks tend to be riskier than bonds, as measured by the standard deviation of their returns. Riskier investments must have higher expected returns to attract investors, and it follows that stocks must have higher expected returns than bonds.
In a recent white paper, PWL’s Raymond Kerzerho and Dan Bortolotti used historical data and current market expectations to demonstrate the expected returns for portfolios with various mixes of stocks and bonds. The results demonstrate the relationship between risk and return – portfolios with higher expected returns also have a higher expected standard deviation. Statistically, it can be expected that in 65% of trials, the returns of a portfolio will fall within one standard deviation of the average return; in 95% of trials, the portfolio returns will fall within two standard deviations of the average return.
To ensure a desirable risk-return expectation, investors must decide how much volatility they are willing to bear, while understanding that less volatility means lower long-term expected returns. Selecting the right asset mix is one of the keys to sticking with an investment plan.
Conclusion: Higher returns are associated with higher risk, as measured by standard deviation. Investors need to understand, and be comfortable with, the risk and return expectations of their portfolio.
4. Know your time horizon
In a given year, the return on a portfolio has a 95% chance of being within two standard deviations of the expected average return. As an example, the one year return on a 60% equity, 40% fixed income portfolio could be expected to fall between -9.8% and 21.4%. If an investor has a one year time horizon, this wide range of returns is not likely to be suitable. As the investor’s time horizon gets longer, it becomes more likely that the realized average return on the portfolio will be close to the expected average return. Investors can have different time horizons for various investment goals, but the funds associated with each goal must be invested appropriately to achieve a successful investment experience. In his book, Playing the Winner’s Game, Larry Swedroe outlines some suggested asset mixes based on investment time horizon.
Conclusion: A long time horizon gives investors the ability to withstand the short-term volatility that accompanies the higher expected returns of stocks. A short time horizon means that less risky investments must be chosen to avoid realizing losses.
5. Focus on time in the market, not timing the market
Timing the market is the action of timing buy and sell decisions in an attempt to gain additional profits by buying low and selling high. Data for US mutual fund cash flows and global equity returns from the Investment Company Institute shows how investors tend to fare at market timing; when markets were doing well, investors were pouring money into equity mutual funds, and when markets were doing poorly they were selling. This buying high and selling low behaviour is driven by the fear and greed that underlie investor psychology. These actions have extremely negative effects on the performance of a portfolio.
A simple solution to avoid market timing impulses is dollar-cost averaging, systematically investing the same amount each month. This method of entering the market alleviates the stress associated with market timing, and suits investors with a fixed amount available to invest each month.
Some investors may have a large lump sum to invest from a settlement, prize, or inheritance. Research from the Vanguard Group has shown that approximately two-thirds of the time, lump sum investing has resulted in superior risk-adjusted performance as compared to dollar-cost averaging[5]. Based on this research, if an investor is comfortable with their asset mix and its risk and return characteristics, it is statistically prudent to invest the full lump sum immediately. If the investor is more concerned about protecting against short-term losses and feelings of regret, then dollar-cost averaging is appropriate.
Conclusion: The simplest solution for investors to avoid market timing is to invest the same amount every week, month, or quarter without worrying about the short term movement of the market. When lump sum investing is deemed appropriate, the investor must be comfortable with the risk/return characteristics of their portfolio.
6. Costs impact wealth accumulation
If an investor decides to invest in an actively managed mutual fund, they are subject to management fees, which are especially high in Canada[6]. The fees, typically in the range of 1.5 to 2.5% of the account value on an annual basis, have a significant impact on wealth accumulation[7]. This can be best illustrated with an example. Assume that both an active mutual fund (2% annual fee) and a passive ETF (0.5% annual fee) generate the same long-term investment return, less their fees. If the market produces an assumed rate of return of 5% over 25 years, and an investor invests $10,000 each year in an RRSP, the value of the savings invested in the active mutual fund would be $364,593, whereas the value of the passive ETF investment would be $445,652. This is a difference of $81,059, or 18%, in favor of the low cost passive investment.
Conclusion: Costs can have a dramatic effect on wealth accumulation. Ask for all possible fees to be disclosed when working with a professional, and look for investments with low upfront and ongoing costs.
7. Utilize tax advantaged accounts
In Canada, we have a handful of tax advantaged accounts that can be used to hold qualified investments. The various accounts have different purposes, but both large and small investors can benefit from using them. For a long-term investor planning for retirement, two of the most useful account types are the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), and the Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA).
Contributions to the RRSP are deducted from taxable income in the year they are made, in most cases result ing in a tax refund. Investment growth and income build inside the RRSP tax free, and any withdrawals are taxed as income in the year they are withdrawn. The idea is that investors will contribute when they are in a high tax bracket, and withdraw when they are in a lower tax bracket. RRSP room builds based on 18% of the previous year’s earned income and can be carried forward indefinitely.
For the TFSA, there is no deduction from taxable income when money is added to it, and there is no tax payable on withdrawals. Like the RRSP, investment income and growth build tax free. Every Canadian resident starts building TFSA room when they turn 18, and currently all eligible people build $5,500 of new room each year.
Until both these accounts have been maximized, there are very few logical reasons to start investing in taxable accounts.
Conclusion: Before investing in taxable accounts, maximize the user of registered, tax-advantaged savings plans.
Becoming a smart investor
Acting on these principles is likely to be beneficial, but they all need to be tied together with a clear investment strategy. One method for sticking to an investment strategy is the creation of an Investment Policy Statement (IPS), which becomes a guideline for future investment decisions.
The IPS is created based on risk-return requirements, time horizon, and investment preferences; it sets rules for how much of each type of security should be held. An example of an IPS could be 20% Canadian stocks, 20% US stocks, 20% International stocks, and 40% bonds. When designed thoughtfully, an IPS allows the investor to separate their emotions from buy and sell decisions, instead basing decisions on the predetermined rules. When the portfolio strays from its targets due to market movement, it must be rebalanced to match the allocations set out in the IPS.
With a strategy in place, a smart investor will revisit their personal situation periodically (annually at least) to see if they should be modifying their IPS or their holdings. It is possible that new investment vehicles with lower costs or increased tax efficiency have been introduced, or that the investor’s time horizon or risk tolerance has changed due to a life event. Managing the optimal use of tax advantaged accounts must also be revisited periodically.
Tying these seven principles together and sticking to a consistent and methodical strategy can result in a pleasant, stress free investment experience, and long term wealth creation.
[1] Vijay Jog, “Investment Performance and Costs of Pension and other retirement Savings Funds in Canada: Implications on Wealth Accumulation and Retirement,” Department of Finance Canada, 2009
[2] Mark Carhart, “On Persistence in Mutual-fund Performance,” Journal of Finance, March 1997
[3]Aye M. Soe, “The Persistence Scorecard,” S&P Dow Jones Indices, June 2014
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