Tag Archives: theme investing

My search for the next great stock

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By Aman Raina, SageInvestors

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I get asked a lot about how to find companies and stocks to invest in. Where do you start? It’s a great question and also an overwhelming question to people. They’ve set up the broker account. They put in some money. They’re now ready to buy stocks. Where to start?

A few years ago I wrote a blog on how to find stocks to invest, where I suggested a simple and easy starting point in identifying companies to evaluate. The premise was identify the core necessities of life that we need on daily basis and find those stocks that offer that value proposition. The necessities of life are essentially food, clothing, shelter, and transportation (I may add another one communication). Identify the companies in each pillar and evaluate them to find the best run, best managed, best performing.

These days, one of the prominent business thought leaders is Scott Galloway. He is a walking market research machine and can hit with you with so much data you’ll faint. If you want proof check out one if his presentations.

Galloway blogs as well and awhile back he posted a piece of how Uber could get its groove back after all the leadership missteps. He mused on the following:

“…Begin thinking of Uber as an OS. The most impressive firm of the nineties was the original gangster leveraging the operating system — Microsoft. The most influential firms of the last decade, the Four (Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google), have become operating systems for retail, media, connections, and information, respectively … and extract serious rents from the apps that sit on top of the OS. What firm has busted a move and blown through $100B market cap that isn’t effectively an OS? The latest, Netflix, has taken advantage of the extraordinarily lame cable industry and now occupies the second-most-important screen, the television. Netflix has increased its market cap 2400% in the last five years.

In sum, the only way Uber gets from $70B to $700B is to become the OS for travel, becoming the user interface / API / rules for all transportation. Leveraging AI, cheap capital, and relationships with 40M of the planet’s wealthiest consumers each month, Uber should expand its offering (dramatically). Same interface, but instead of entering “ACK airport,” where I’m headed Sunday morning, I type in “London,” and using AI — connecting the dots of my preferences, economic weight class, deals at the time, APIs — Uber presents the best options for not just the ride to the airport, but the flights to JFK, then London, the car that picks me up, and the hotel I stay at. Uber has the license to do this. The ride-hailing firm can’t get there on its own and will acquire other firms…”

It’s a pretty compelling argument and it made me wonder what other “OS’s” are out there in other industries? Then I thought about my pillars, food, clothing, shelter, transportation? Has anyone staked their claim as owning the OS for these pillars? Where would Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple play in this? I thought it would an interesting exercise to carry out and may it can uncover some interesting investment opportunities. My search for the next great stock had begun.
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Dogs of the Dow is themed ETF investing but flawed

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Dog Breed Small Brabant AccountantInner Circle members often ask us about themed ETF investing strategies, and most of the time, we tell them we do not recommend investing in themes.

For example, some ETFs out there are based on the so-called “Dogs of the Dow” stocks. Essentially, the “Dogs of the Dow” ETF is based on a collection of the lowest-priced, highest dividend yielding stocks that trade on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and are updated yearly.

Rising interest rates will work against Dogs of the Dow ETF investing approach
The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (symbol SDOG on New York; www. alpssectordividenddogs.com), is an example of an ETF that applies the “Dogs of the Dow” theory on a sector-by-sector basis using the stocks in the S&P 500.

As we mentioned above, the Dogs of the Dow approach involves buying the lowest-priced, highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At the end of each year, you pick the 10 stocks from the 30-stock Dow with the highest dividend yields. You then invest an equal dollar amount in each, hold them for one year and repeat these steps annually.

The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF picks five stocks from each of the 10 sectors as defined by the S&P 500 index—consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, industrials, information technology, materials, telecommunication services and utilities. The ETF picks the stocks with the highest dividend yields. Each holding is then equally weighted so that every company has a similar influence on the ETF’s total return. The end result is a portfolio of 50 large-cap stocks.

The Dogs of the Dow strategy worked well in the 1990s because interest rates were going down. This tended to raise all stock prices. But high-yielding stocks were affected more than most, because they attracted former bond investors who were switching into stocks.
Interest rates are now likely to remain steady, or they could creep upward. So we see little appeal in a Dogs of the Dow approach.

For that matter, we see little appeal in following any formulaic approach to investing. The one basic rule about things like this is that if it sounds too good to be true, then it isn’t true.

The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF holds a number of stocks we recommend in Wall Street Stock Forecaster (including McDonald’s, Kraft Foods Group, Wells Fargo & Co., Baxter International, Pfizer, General Electric and Intel). It also holds a lot of stocks we don’t recommend. But, more to the point, we don’t recommend using a Dogs of the Dow approach to picking stocks or ETF investing.

There is no “philosopher’s stone”

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Investor Toolkit: Why you should avoid “theme investing”

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Patrick McKeough, TSInetwork.ca

By Patrick McKeough, TSInetwork.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Today’s tip: “Theme investing may seem to be a good way to simplify your investments by following a developing trend. But it can force investors to pay too much attention to investment fads and predictions and too little to the fundamentals of good companies.”

Theme investing has natural appeal. It simplifies things. Investors like it because they feel it can put their investment returns into overdrive. Some also feel it adds fringe benefits to their investing, by letting them support social objectives.

Brokers like it because it gives them a rationale to recommend a variety of stocks.
If a client thinks gold prices are headed up, a broker can think of all sorts of gold-themed investment opportunities. They include established gold miners; junior gold companies that are working on a promising gold property; or penny golds that are outright speculations. Other possibilities are financial companies that sell gold-related merchandise like gold coins.

If the client supports environmental causes, the broker can propose investments with a “green theme.”  They include solar-power equipment makers; companies that claim their products are less harmful to the environment than competitors’ products; or companies that claim to operate with a high degree of environmental concern.

When you focus on an investing theme, however, it’s easy to overlook the fundamentals. If you’re sure gold prices are headed up, for instance, why trouble yourself with tiresome matters like finances or geology?

Predictions are the hard way to make investment decisions

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