In my experience, the bond market typically reacts to developments in the stock market, not the other way around. Being a baby boomer (right at the tail end, mind you), I thought: Am I missing something here? Could the paradigm have shifted? Thus, I decided to do a little bit more investigating, and what I found was that, in my opinion, no, the paradigm had not shifted. The recent decline in the UST 10-Year yield had its genesis in the latest sell-off in the stock market, which began in early May and continued throughout the month.

Dow Jones Industrial Avg. vs. UST 10-Year Yield

Take a look at the graph. The UST 10-Year yield was essentially straddling the 2.50% threshold in the opening days of May until the Dow Joes Industrial Average (DJIA) took a nearly 475-point nosedive on May 7. This began the downward trend in which we find ourselves now. Remember, that trend was in response to the breakdown in U.S./China trade talks and the attendant escalation in “tariff talk.” Then round 2 hit as the DJIA plunged 617 points on May 13, leading the UST 10-Year to break through the 2.40% level, ultimately falling down to 2.37% —which, at that time, matched the 2019 low watermark set back in March. Notice how stocks rebounded somewhat after this episode: and what did the 10-Year yield do? That’s right, it moved back up as a result. Continue Reading…