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How (not) to trade US midterm elections: you can’t Trump staying the course

Investors should avoid making major portfolio changes in advance of the US midterm elections, says former advisor Dale Roberts

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

When I was an advisor at Tangerine Investments I would have many more-than-interesting conversations with clients about short-term economic and political events; especially over Donald Trump. For those of you who do not live under a rock, Donald Trump is the more than controversial President of The United States. Mr. Trump went from real estate magnate and reality TV show host to the most important chair in the world. Many will write and say that the President who resides over the world’s largest and most influential economy and the world’s most powerful armed forces (by many times over) is the most ‘powerful person’ in the world.

So as investors, and for those who manage money, we should pay attention to what the most powerful person on earth does and says, right?

Nope.

As investors, we don’t invest in Presidents or Prime Ministers, we invest in economies and the companies that help drive those economies. With respect to investing in the U.S. the world’s greatest investor, Warren Buffett, often writes …

Never bet against America.

And heading into the Presidential elections of 2016 Mr. Buffett (a vocal Democrat and Hillary Clinton supporter) offered in a Nasdaq interview 

“America works … I’ve said this before, it’ll work wonderfully under Hillary Clinton, and I think it’ll work fine under Donald Trump … For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start.”

Ahhh, and there’s the very powerful and destructive key phrase tucked into that sentience; the two words “bet against.” If you make a short-term move, make a guess on a short term event, you’ve just turned investing into betting/gambling. You’ve turned investing into trading. As the saying goes, on the list of the world’s most successful investors you won’t find any traders.

Successful investors have a long-term outlook and a long-term holding period. Boring works. Excitement is for the casino. When asked what is his favourite holding period for a stock or investment Mr. Buffett will reply “forever.”

So don’t listen to me, but you might listen to the word’s greatest investor: who often states that he has never invested based on a short-term economic event or economic prediction or political event or political commentary.

An investor with a well-balanced portfolio will likely invest in US and International markets. When we invest in America we often own market-leading companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Walmart, Home Depot, McDonald’s, Coke and Pepsico, Costco, Amazon, Google, Netflix, AT &T, Exxon Mobil, Clorox, Facebook, Colgate-Palmolive, Goldman Sachs, and even Mr. Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway.

You’re not investing in Donald Trump, you’re investing in McDonald’s.

Investors can ignore the midterm elections

If you now understand that you don’t need to pay attention to the current President of the United States, you also do not need to pay attention to the next President of the United States, nor do you need to pay attention to the next group of Congresswomen and Congressmen and Senators who will fill the seats of The House of Representatives. You can ignore the midterm elections on Tuesday November 6th, 2018. You can ignore the Presidential election that will follow two years later. Continue Reading…