Tag Archives: US politics

The Four-year Rule: One of the Must-Know Stock Trading rules for Beginners

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Are you interested in stock trading rules for beginners? The “four-year” rule is an important one to understand for growing your profits

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Are you interested in stock trading rules for beginners? Most “market rules” turn out to be demonstrations of the fact that random events tend to occur in bunches. The “research” they grow out of generally consists of studying statistics until you find start-and-end dates of periods when a hypothetical indicator would have paid off.

In most cases, if you change the start and/or end dates, the market rules/indicators lose their advantage or go into reverse. Even if you stick with the same start and end dates, the indicator will still go into reverse eventually.

However, the four-year rule is an exception among other stock trading rules for beginners. That’s because it’s based on events that tend to recur in predictable phases of the four-year U.S. Presidential term.

Some statistics are worth a close look

From the election of Andrew Jackson in 1832 till the election of Donald Trump in 2016, the U.S. has gone through 47 complete four-year Presidential terms.

In the first years of each of these 47 four-year presidential terms (starting with the year after the Presidential Election year) the average result for the U.S. stock market was a gain of 3%.

In the second years (the mid-term election years), the annual gain averaged 4.0%. The average result for the third years (the pre-Presidential Election years) was a 10.4% gain. The average for the fourth years (the Presidential Election years) was a gain of 6.0%. (Source: Stock Traders Almanac 2022.)

This pattern probably comes about because of a couple of unchanging things about most U.S. Presidential Elections:

  • First, most U.S. political office holders, regardless of party, want to get re-elected, or pave the way to the election of a successor from their own party.
  • Second, U.S. Presidential Elections bring out many “swing voters” who might not bother to vote in less important elections. They tend to get interested in the Presidential Election because of the torrent of attention it inspires, in the media and in day-to-day conversation.

That’s why newly elected or re-elected presidents often introduce unpleasant necessities in the first year or at least first half of the term. (The best recent example is the need President Trump felt to confront China early in his term.) Swing voters (or voters generally, for that matter) will have had time to get over the shock of the news before the next Presidential Election. In fact, the unpleasant necessities of the first half of the term may have begun paying dividends by the second half. Continue Reading…

Time to add $6,000 to your TFSA but consider holding off investing it until after Jan 6th

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Happy New Year! However, this first business week of the new year promises to snap investors rudely out of their holiday moods, given political events south of the border.

As of last Friday, January 1st, Canadians could add another $6,000 to their TFSAs, taking their total cumulative lifetime contributions to $75,500. As I outlined in my latest MoneySense Retired Money column, it’s generally a good idea to do this early in January just to maximize the time value of money.

However, I’d hold off committing to particular equity investments until the dust settles, given that this morning’s headlines no doubt focus on the incredible political drama taking place in Georgia on Tuesday, Jan. 5th and then in Washington on Wednesday, Jan 6th.

After this weekend’s dramatic capturing on tape of soon-to-be-ex President Trump’s attempt to persuade the State of Georgia to “find” (aka steal) almost 12,000 votes, both the Georgia runoffs and Wednesday’s supposedly ceremonial formal certification of the state electors votes confirming Joe Biden’s victory promise to be full of fireworks.

Fireworks almost inevitable in Washington this Wednesday

Things were simmering even before Sunday’s saturation TV coverage of what seemed yet another impeachable offence from Trump. Violence from far right-groups fomented by Trump’s fanning the flames in anticipation of Wednesday’s ceremony in Washington already seemed to be in the cards even before this weekend. That can be hardly good for stock markets although pre-market Monday futures were strongly up in the three major US indices.

Add in the ongoing stress of the still-raging pandemic and recent euphoria over vaccines, and the fact US and many global stocks have been hovering near record highs: not to mention cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, which this weekend smashed through US$30,000 for the first time.

So it hardly seems like there’s a need to rush to invest new TFSA money when all these portents mean prices could be cheaper later this week. Whether this creates yet another proverbial buying opportunity remains to be seen.

Some ideas for how to invest new TFSA money

Those in doubt who would rather invest sooner than later on any anticipated market downturns Monday could always hedge their bets with value-oriented balanced mutual funds or the Asset Allocation ETFs often mentioned on this site, from BlackRock iShares, BMO ETFs, Horizons ETFs or Vanguard Canada. Hard to believe it was just three years ago that the Hub published this blog about these “game-changers”  and they seem to me to make a lot of sense for the large “core” of most portfolios.  Continue Reading…

My Review of “A Warning” by Anonymous

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Based on the arrival of my library copy of “A Warning” this weekend, it’s clear that the controversial book about Donald Trump written by “Anonymous” is now in wide circulation, and hence there will soon be a new wave of reviews.

Recall that what amounted to a sneak preview of the book came late in 2018 after the New York Times departed from normal practice and published an opinion piece credited only to “A Senior Trump administration official” that gave an inside look at what those unfortunate enough to be subordinate to Trump have to endure on an almost daily basis. Talk about the worst job in the world!

At 250 pages it’s a quick read. At one level, and as a friend of mine who also got an early copy remarked, there’s not that much new to anyone who has been following this train wreck of a presidency on CNN or MSNBC.

Indeed, many of the early reviews based on pre-release copies gave us a good flavour of what you can expect in this book. My favourite passage in the book used not the imagery of a train wreck but an even more dramatic one of air traffic control. To wit:

‘The day-to-day management of the executive branch was falling apart before our eyes. Trump was all over the place. He was like a twelve-year old in an air traffic control tower, pushing the buttons of government indiscriminately, indifferent to the planes skidding across the runway and the flights frantically diverting away from the airport.’

The book includes eight chapters, beginning with the collapse of the steady state (you remember the “grownups” who were supposed to act as guard rails, many now since departed), moves on to Trump’s numerous defects in character, his Fake Views, his Assault on Democracy, his weakness for Strongmen, and a chapter on how he has divided America with a “New Mason-Dixon Line.” Then he surveys the apologists and his enablers who put ambition and fear over service to country, and ends with an appeal to the Electorate.

Surprisingly, the author isn’t that keen on the prospect of impeachment: even though the book is current enough to include the early innings of the Ukraine scandal. Instead, and perhaps sensibly, the appeal is to American voters to come to their collective senses and vote him out in the 2020 election.

Three years too late?

A cynic might quip that the very title “A Warning” comes at least three years too late. But for anyone who believes another four years of this madness will all but destroy American democracy, the title is apt if understated. Perhaps a Trumpian superlative would be an improvement: something like “An Urgent Warning.” Continue Reading…