Tag Archives: volatility

Offence vs Defence

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  • Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
  • Turn and face the strange
  • Ch-ch-changes
  • Don’t want to be a richer man
  • Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
  • Turn and face the strange
  • Ch-ch-changes
  • There’s gonna have to be a different man
  • Time may change me
  • But I can’t trace time — Changes, by David Bowie
Image courtesy Outcome/Shutterstock

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

There is a basic principle that most people follow when it comes to their spending decisions. In essence, people generally try to either

(1) Get the most they can for the least amount of money, or

(2) Spend the least amount of money on the things they want (i.e. get the best deal)

In other words, rational utility maximizers try to be as efficient as possible when parting with their hard-earned dollars.

Strangely, many investors abandon this principle when it comes to their portfolios. With investing, what you get is return (hopefully more than less), and what you pay (other than fees) is risk. People often focus on return without any regard for the amount of risk they are taking. Alternately, many make the mistake of reducing risk at any cost, regardless of the magnitude of potential returns they leave on the table.

The foundation of successful investing necessitates achieving an optimal balance between return and risk. Different types of assets (volatile speculative stocks, stable dividend paying stocks, bonds, etc.) have very different risk and return characteristics. Relatedly, a portfolio’s level of exposure to different asset classes is the primary determinant of its risk and return profile, including how efficient the balance is between the two.

Offense, Defense, & Bobby Knight

Robert Montgomery “Bobby” Knight was an American men’s college basketball coach. Nicknamed “the General,”h e won 902 NCAA Division I men’s basketball games, a record at the time of his retirement. He is quoted as saying:

“As coaches we talk about two things: offense and defense. There is a third phase we neglect, which is more important. It’s conversion from offense to defense and defense to offense.”

Nobody can escape the fact that you can’t have your cake and eat it too. You can’t increase potential returns without taking greater risk. Similarly, you can’t reduce the possibility of losses without reducing the potential for returns.

Picking up Pennies in Front of a Steamroller vs. Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Notwithstanding this unfortunate tradeoff, there are times when investors should focus heavily on return on capital (i.e. being more aggressive), times when they should be more concerned with return of capital (i.e. being more defensive), and all points in between.

Sometimes, there is significantly more downside than upside from taking risk. Although it is still possible to reap decent returns in such environments, the odds aren’t in your favour. Reaching further out on the risk curve in such regimes is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller:  the potential rewards are small relative to the possible consequences. At the other end of the spectrum, there are environments in which the probability of gains dwarfs the probability of losses. Although there is a relatively small chance that you could lose money in such circumstances, the wind is clearly at your back. At these junctures, dialing up your risk exposure is akin to shooting fish in a barrel – the likelihood of success is high while the risk of an adverse event is small.

John F. Kennedy & the Chameleonic Nature of Markets

Former President John F. Kennedy asserted that “The one unchangeable certainty is that nothing is certain or unchangeable.” With regard to markets, the risk and return profiles of different asset classes are not stagnant. Rather, they change over time depending on a variety of factors, including interest rates, economic growth, inflation, valuations, etc.

Given this dynamic, it follows that determining your optimal asset mix is not a “one and done” treatise, but rather a dynamic process that takes into account changing conditions. Yesterday’s optimal portfolio may not look like today’s, which in turn may be significantly different than the one of the future.

It’s not just the risk vs. return profile of any given asset class that should inform its weight with portfolios, but also how it compares with those for other asset classes. As such, investors should use changing risk/return profiles among asset classes to “tilt” their portfolios, increasing the weights of certain types of investments while decreasing others.

In “normal” times, the expected return from stocks exceeds the yields offered by cash and high-grade bonds by roughly 3% per annum. However, this difference can expand or contract depending on economic conditions and relative valuations among asset classes.

In the decade plus era following the global financial crisis, not only did rates remain at historically low levels, but the prospective returns on equities were abnormally high given the positive impact that low rates have on spending, earnings growth, and multiples. Against this backdrop, the prospective returns from stocks far exceeded yields on safe harbour investments. Under these conditions, it is no surprise that investors who had outsized exposure to stocks vs. bonds were handsomely rewarded.

Expected Return on Stocks vs. Yield on High Grade Bonds: Post GFC Era

As things currently stand, the picture is markedly different. Following the most significant rate-hiking cycle in decades, bonds are once again “back in the game.” Moreover, lofty equity market valuations (at least in the U.S.) suggest that the S&P 500 Index will deliver below-average returns over the next several years. Continue Reading…

7 Business Leaders on handling Dividend Stock volatility

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Image: Jakub Zerdzicki on Pexels

Navigating the unpredictable waters of dividend stocks requires a steady hand and a well-informed strategy. To help you master the art of managing volatility and work toward Financial Independence, seven seasoned business leaders share their invaluable advice. From adopting a long-term perspective to assessing the fundamentals of dividend stocks, these insights are grounded in real-world experience. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this article delivers practical strategies from top professionals to strengthen your investment approach and achieve sustained success.

 

  • Focus on Long-Term Perspective
  • Track Dividend Payout Ratios
  • Maintain a Cash Cushion
  • Diversify Across Multiple Sectors
  • Stay the Course
  • Reinvest Dividends Automatically
  • Check Dividend Stock Fundamentals

During periods of volatility, I focus on maintaining a long-term perspective with dividend stocks and ensuring that the underlying companies have strong fundamentals. I recommend prioritizing dividend growth over just high yields, as companies with a history of increasing dividends, even in turbulent times, tend to be more resilient. One specific piece of advice I offer is to avoid panic selling when the market dips. Instead, consider reinvesting dividends or using the volatility as an opportunity to acquire shares at a lower price, provided the company’s outlook remains strong. This strategy allows you to take advantage of market fluctuations while staying focused on the long-term growth potential of the dividend stream. — Peter Reagan, Financial Market Strategist, Birch Gold Group

Track Dividend Payout Ratios

I discovered that tracking dividend payout ratios has been crucial during market swings: I specifically look for companies maintaining ratios below 75% even in tough times. Just last quarter, when the market got shaky, I held onto Procter & Gamble despite price drops because their steady 60% payout ratio showed they could sustain dividends through the volatility. — Adam Garcia, Founder, The Stock Dork

Maintain a Cash Cushion

As a financial expert, I’ve learned that the best defense during volatile periods is maintaining a cash cushion equal to about 2-3 years of living expenses alongside my dividend stocks. Last month, this strategy helped me stay calm when one of my core holdings dropped 15%: instead of panic-selling, I actually bought more shares at a discount because I knew my basic needs were covered. — Jonathan Gerber, President, RVW Wealth

Diversify across Multiple Sectors

As a financial advisor specializing in income investments, I understand that periods of market volatility can be unsettling: especially for dividend investors who rely on steady income. However, my approach is centered on maintaining a long-term perspective and staying disciplined with my strategy. Here’s how I handle volatility in my dividend stock portfolio: 

In volatile markets, it’s easy to get caught up in short-term price swings. However, I prioritize the fundamentals of the companies I invest in. Are they consistently generating revenue and profits? Are they able to maintain their dividend payouts, even if the stock price fluctuates? Companies with a history of stable earnings and reliable dividend payments are generally better equipped to withstand market downturns.

During times of volatility, I make sure my dividend stocks are well-diversified across multiple sectors. Some sectors—such as utilities and consumer staples—are typically more stable during economic downturns. Diversification helps mitigate the risk that a downturn in one sector will significantly impact my overall income stream. Continue Reading…

Using Collectibles as a Hedge against traditional Market Volatility

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Image by Unsplash: Mick Haupt

By Devin Partida

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Today’s markets are difficult to navigate.

Keeping up with traditional market volatility can be difficult due to constantly changing market indexes and financial trends.

So, how do you stay afloat? To diversify your portfolio with assets that won’t move with the market, invest in collectibles.

What is Considered a Collectable?

Has anything been handed down to you as a generational gift? How about a piece of memorabilia from your favorite band or sports team? If these items are considered valuable due to rarity, historical significance or simple worth, they are considered collectibles.

Collectibles come in all shapes and sizes. From the smallest coins to the biggest cars, they might make valuable investments. Here are typical examples:

Art

One of the most common collectibles, art comes in many different forms. If you have a painting, sculpture or other piece that you think is valuable, you can research your art through museums or online collections.

Coins

Coin collecting is a centuries-old hobby. Coins are small and easy to access, making them an excellent place for beginners to start. Though tiny, they can be highly valuable. The 1943 Lincoln Head Copper Penny was once just a penny but now sells for over $204,000.

Sports Memorabilia

With new stars emerging every year, sports memorabilia will never go out of style. The market for sports collectibles is increasing in value for current sports stars like LeBron James and Steph Curry, alongside Hall of Famers and older sports legends.

Benefits of Investing in Collectibles

Investing in collectibles can bring various benefits — to your wallet and future. Here are four positive impacts:

1. Retain Value during Market Downturns

Volatility occurs when the market experiences dramatic price changes. When stocks change and prices shift, collectibles retain value because they are not solely based on the economy. Collectibles often maintain historical resilience, meaning their historic worth protects them during downturns.

2. Generate Return on Investment (ROI)

Collectibles can yield a great ROI. If you know the value of your collectibles, budget appropriately and care for your items, they could be worth a lot. Most collectibles appreciate around 10% each year, contributing to your financial security.

3. Enjoy a New Hobby

Although collectibles can be used as a financial strategy, they also make a fun hobby. What is something that interests you? Everyone has something that fascinates them, and almost anything can be collected. With collectibles, making smart financial investments can be more exciting.

4. Diversify your Portfolio

Investing in multiple assets is a smart way to protect yourself — and your money. Diversification mitigates unsystematic risks that could occur when the market shifts. Using collectibles along with traditional investments gives you more protection against volatility.

How to make successful Collectible Investments

Collectibles provide many financial benefits, but they also come with risks. Before starting your collection, understand the necessary steps to take and things to watch out for.

Make informed purchases

Do your research first if you want to start a collection or purchase a single item. When investing in online stock, people use investing apps to help them make smart decisions and avoid fraud. In-person investments require the same safety measures. Sellers could trick you into spending money on counterfeit items, so be smart when investing.

Understand Liquidity

Liquidity refers to how quickly an investment can be sold or turned into cash without impacting its price. Although collectibles gain value over time, they are meant to be long-term assets. Unlike stocks and bonds, which can be converted to cash in 1-2 days, collectibles may take years. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t invest in collectibles — it just means you must be aware of timelines.

Integrate Collectibles into a broader Investment Strategy

Collectibles are a great way to diversify your portfolio as an additional form of investment. You should never rely on one asset, so don’t entirely count on your collectible to secure you financially. Practice safe investing habits by creating a plan and budgeting accordingly. Continue Reading…

Three ways to lower Risk in your portfolio with ETFs

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Here are some of the ways ETFs can be used strategically to help you sleep better at night.

Image courtesy BMO ETFs/Getty Images

By Erin Allen, VP, Online Distribution, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

Volatility is often seen as the price of admission for achieving investment returns, but too much of it can feel like paying a hefty fee for a ride on an intense roller coaster, only to find yourself feeling queasy by the end and unable to enjoy the rest of the amusement park.

If the recent stock market turbulence in early August has left you contemplating panic selling, take a moment to breathe. Market corrections are a normal and healthy aspect of investing, and your portfolio doesn’t have to experience such dramatic ups and downs.

Why? Well, various defensively oriented ETFs can offer strategic ways to manage and mitigate risk, helping you stay the course and remain invested through the market’s inevitable fluctuations. Here are some ideas featuring BMO ‘s ETFs lineup:

Low-volatility ETFs

Imagine the broad market, such as the S&P 500 index, as a vast sea where the waves represent market volatility, and your investment portfolio is your boat navigating these waters.

How your boat responds to these waves is dictated by its beta, a measure that indicates both the direction and magnitude of your portfolio’s fluctuations relative to the market.

To put it simply, if the market’s “waves” have a beta of 1, and your portfolio also has a beta of 1, this means your portfolio will typically move in sync with the market, rising and falling to the same degree.

Now, consider if your boat were lighter and more susceptible to the waves, symbolized by a beta of two. In this scenario, your portfolio would be expected to swing twice as much as the market: more pronounced highs and lows.

Conversely, imagine your boat is a sturdy cargo ship with a beta of 0.5. In this case, your portfolio would react more calmly to market waves, experiencing only half the ups and downs of the market. This stability is what low-beta stocks can offer, and they can be conveniently accessed through various ETFs.

One such example is the BMO Low Volatility Canadian Equity ETF (ZLB)1, which selects Canadian stocks for their low beta. Compared to the broad Canadian market, ZLB is overweight in defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities, which are less sensitive to economic cycles.

Holding allocations are as of August 19, 2024; sourced here1.

This ETF not only offers reduced volatility and smaller peak-to-trough losses compared to the BMO S&P/TSX Composite ETF (ZCN)2 but has also managed to outperform it — demonstrating that it is very much possible to achieve more return for less risk2.

To diversify further, you can also consider low-volatility ETFs from other geographic regions. These include three; BMO Low Volatility International Equity ETF (ZLD)3, BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity ETF (ZLE)4, and the BMO Low Volatility US Equity ETF (ZLU)5.

Ultra-short-term bond ETFs

While ETFs like the ZLB1 are engineered for reduced volatility through low-beta stock selection, it’s important to remember that they still hold equities.

In extreme market downturns, such as the one experienced in March 2020 during the onset of COVID-19, these funds can still be susceptible to market risk. This is pervasive and unavoidable if you’re invested in stocks; it affects virtually all equities regardless of individual company performances.

To fortify a portfolio against such downturns, diversification into other asset classes, particularly bonds, is crucial. However, not just any bonds will do — specific types, like those held by the BMO Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF (ZST)6, are particularly beneficial in these scenarios.

ZST, which pays monthly distributions, primarily selects investment-grade corporate bonds6. The focus on high credit quality, predominantly A and BBB rated bonds, is critical for reducing risk as these ratings indicate a lower likelihood of default and thus, offer greater safety during economic uncertainties.

Moreover, ZST targets bonds with less than a year until maturity6. This short duration is pivotal for those looking to minimize interest rate risk. Short-term bonds are less sensitive to changes in interest rates compared to long-term bonds, which can experience significant price drops when rates rise.

Charts as of July 31st, 2024 6

This strategic combination of high credit quality and short maturity durations7 is why, as demonstrated in the chart below, ZST has been able to steadily appreciate in value without experiencing the same level of volatility as broader aggregate bond ETFs like the BMO Aggregate Bond ETF (ZAG)8.

Buffer ETFs

If you recall the days of using training wheels when learning to ride a bike, you’ll appreciate the concept of buffer ETFs. Just as training wheels keep you from tipping over while also limiting how fast and freely you can ride, buffer ETFs aim to moderate the range of investment outcomes — both up and down.

Buffer ETFs may sound complex, but the principle behind them is straightforward. These ETFs utilize options to limit your downside risk while also capping your potential upside returns.

For example, a buffer ETF might offer to limit your exposure to a maximum 10% price return of a reference asset (like the S&P 500 index) over a year while absorbing the first -15% of any losses during the same period.

If the reference asset rises, your investment increases alongside it, up to a 10% cap. However, if the reference asset declines, the ETF absorbs the first 15% of any loss. Only after this “downside buffer” is exhausted would you start to experience losses.

BMO offers four such buffer ETFs, each named according to the start month of their outcome period when the initial upside cap and buffer limits are set. These include: Continue Reading…

Private Equity: A Portfolio Perspective

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So don’t ask me no questions
And I won’t tell you no lies
So don’t ask me about my business
And I won’t tell you goodbye

  • Lynyrd Skynyrd
Image courtesy Outcome/Shutterstock

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I know virtually nothing about investing in private companies. However, I do know a thing or two about the theoretical and practical aspects of asset allocation and portfolio construction. In this vein, I will discuss the value of private equity (PE) investments within a portfolio context. Importantly, I will explain why PE investments may contribute less to one’s portfolio than is widely perceived.

Before I get into it, I am compelled to state one important caveat. Generalized statements about PE are less meaningful than is the case with public equities. The dispersion of returns across public equity funds is far lower than across PE managers. Whereas most long stock funds fall within +/- 5% of the average over a several year period, there is a far wider dispersion among underperformers and outperformers in the PE space. As such, it is important to note that the following analysis does not apply to any specific PE investment but rather to PE as an asset class in general.

The Perfect Asset Class?

PE allocations are broadly perceived as offering higher returns than their publicly traded counterparts. In addition, they are regarded as having lower volatility than and lower correlation to stocks. Given these perceived attributes, PE investments can be regarded as the “magic sauce” for increasing portfolio returns while lowering portfolio volatility. In combination, these attributes can significantly enhance portfolios’ risk-adjusted returns. However, the assumptions underlying these features are highly questionable.

Saturation, Lower Returns, & Echoes of Charlie Munger

It is reasonable to expect that average returns within the PE industry will be lower than in decades past. The number of active PE firms has increased more than fivefold, from just under two thousand in 2000 to over 9000 today. This impressive increase pales in comparison to growth in assets under management, which went from roughly $600 billion in 2000 to $7.6 trillion as of the end of 2022. It seems unlikely if not impossible that the number of attractive investment opportunities can keep pace with the dramatic increase in the amount of money chasing them.

Another reason to suspect that PE managers’ returns will be lower going forward is that their incentives and objectives have changed. The smaller PE industry of yesteryear was incentivized to deliver strong returns to maximize performance fees.  In contrast, today’s behemoth managers are motivated to maximize assets under management and management fees. The name of the game is to raise as much money as possible, invest it as quickly as possible, and begin raising money for the next fund. The objective is no longer to produce the best returns, but rather to deliver acceptable returns on the largest asset base possible. As the great Charlie Munger stated, “Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.”

There are no Bear Markets in Private Equity!

It is also likely that PE investments on average have both higher volatility and greater correlation to stocks than may appear. The values of public equities are determined by exchange-quoted prices every single day. In contrast, private assets are not marked to market daily. Not only do PE managers value their holdings infrequently, but they also must employ a significant degree of subjectivity in determining the value of their holdings. Importantly, there is an inherent bias for not adjusting private valuations when public equities suffer losses. Continue Reading…