All posts by Robb Engen

How much will my Defined Benefit pension pay In Retirement?

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I contribute to a defined benefit pension plan at work. How much will I get from the pension plan in retirement? That depends on when I retire or leave the plan. Hang on, we’re about to get math-y.

Normal retirement age is 65 and I joined the pension plan in 2009 at age 30. Retiring in 2044 (the year I turn 65) would give me 35 years of pensionable service.

The pension plan has a retirement calculator on its website. Curious about the amount of retirement income I’d receive at various ages, I took a look. The calculator just needed a couple of inputs: current salary, plus an assumption for future annual salary increases (I used 2 per cent).

Retiring at age 65 would max out my pensionable service and give me an annual retirement income of $46,000 in today’s dollars. Continue Reading…

The stock market crash that never came

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It’s been 10 years since the global financial crisis bottomed out. Since then stocks have basically been on an uninterrupted tear, with the TSX doubling in value, and the S&P 500 nearly quadrupling in value. In that time, investors have survived the European debt crisis, Greece’s debt crisis, a Russian financial crisis, the Brexit decision, Trump’s election, and countless other doomsday predictions.

Markets have reached all-time highs so frequently that investors are understandably nervous about an upcoming crash. The problem is, nobody knows when a crash might hit, if ever, or how severe it might be if it does occur. Stocks may continue to go up for a few years, or maybe go sideways for a while, or we might suffer a small correction of 10-15 percent before the next bull market begins.

The tech bubble and financial crisis are still fresh enough in our minds to convince investors that declines of 40-50 per cent are normal, when in fact these were major black swan events that perhaps we’ll never see again.

Investing at all-time highs

Let’s say you’re a nervous investor who decided to get out of the stock market at some point in the last 10 years, whether due to Europe, Brexit, Trump, or simply because the markets were looking “expensive.”  What’s the cost of waiting for a correction? It turns out to be quite high.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

The Cogent Advisor blog looked at U.S. investment returns over the period 1927 through 2016. That’s 91 years, or 1,092 months. The average monthly return was 0.95 per cent. But when they removed the returns from the best performing 91 months, the remaining 1,001 months provided an average return of virtually zero (0.1 per cent). In other words, 8.5 per cent of the months delivered almost 100 per cent of the return.

Their takeaway: Even if you believe the probability of a correction is high, it’s far from certain. And when the correction doesn’t happen, the expected opportunity cost of having waited is much greater than the expected benefit.

The Crash That Never Came

One reader who I’ll call Jason emailed me and confessed that while he used to invest in index funds he got nervous after Trump’s election and moved everything to a full service wealth management firm last year. He didn’t say in the email, but I can imagine he stressed this concern with his new advisor, who placed him into a conservative portfolio aimed to provide downside protection in the event of a crash.

Here’s Jason, one year later:

I just took a look at the past 12-month performance and it was 3 per cent vs the market of ~13 per cent. I have a sinking feeling I made a mistake and should move it back to self manage using index funds.

I sent my advisor a few questions and basically got the answer that they protect the downside, and have a lower risk targeting 4-6 per cent average over five years.

I still feel nervous, but at age 42 I think I should be more in the market. We have been at all-time highs for a while so I am torn between a bear market that may start now and the downside protection would be warranted. That said, maybe not.

Continue Reading…

Sh*it my advisor says

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Some investors eventually leave their commission-based advisors and opt to set up a simple portfolio of index funds or ETFs on their own. There are plenty of compelling reasons to do so; the reduction in fees alone can save investors thousands of dollars a year, and academic research shows that the lower your costs, the greater your share of an investment’s return.

Related: Steak Knives, Yes. Financial Advice, Maybe Not

In my fee-only planning service, many clients end up doing exactly that. I always enjoy hearing the rebuttals from bank and investment firm advisors whenever they hear their clients want to move to a lower-cost portfolio. Here I’ve tried to capture some of that conversation with sh*t my advisor says:

Sexism: When my husband told him we’re choosing simple index investing and that I handle the family finances he smirked and said to my husband, “What credentials does your wife have to manage money?”

The real enemy: Our investment company is being vilified when the true villains are credit card companies with their interest rates.

Proof of concept: I have tons of clients with assets over $500,000 so I must be doing something right.

Working for free: My advisor told me she basically worked for me for free for the past eight years and accused me of dumping her just as my assets were growing.

It takes a professional: People think they can trade mutual funds or ETFs on their own but it’s not as easy as you think. Plus, you don’t have anyone like me to call up and ask if you’re doing the right thing. Re-balancing a portfolio is easy if you have the background, but doing it like you’re thinking about (indexing) is very tough without the training and knowledge.

What’s in a fee?: The fees are at 2 per cent (Ed. Note: actually, 2.76 per cent) because this isn’t just about buying and selling. We created a complete portfolio with you for your tolerance in the market and deal in actively traded mutual funds that most of the time outperform the market.

Nortel: ETFs aren’t all that great. When you buy an ETF you buy the whole fund. In the late 90s when Nortel owned 30 per cent of the TSX it crashed. If you purchased that ETF you’d be down 30 per cent too! But with a mutual fund you can’t buy that much. You are only able to purchase up to 10 per cent of any one company. So you would have been fairly safe with the crash of Nortel.

Downside protection: If the market goes down 20 per cent your ETFs will too. You are much more protected with mutual funds.

Apples-to-apples: All of our fees are wrapped up together in our MER. We do not charge account fees, transaction fees, advisory fees, admin fees or fees for our service. It is just the MER.

Clairvoyance: The bond market has likely reached its peak and appears to moving in a different direction. The equity markets are very risky at this time. In my mind the only safe place left is guaranteed deposits. Continue Reading…

Boosting Retirement Savings during your final Working Years

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Whether you’re a late starter or seasoned saver, the five years or so leading up to retirement just might be the most crucial time to get your finances in order.

Most retirement-ready checklists suggest your final working years is a time to double-down on retirement savings. The idea being that major financial burdens, such as paying down the mortgage and raising children, should be behind you and those savings can be parlayed into big contributions to your retirement nest egg.

High-income earners should look to their unused RRSP contribution room and contribute as much as possible in their final working years. This has the added benefit of generating big tax returns, which can be reinvested into your RRSP or used to pay down any outstanding debts.

Procrastinators have a final chance to break any bad spending habits and set their finances straight. The first step is to draw up a financial plan. Make it a top priority to pay down any remaining debt and get spending under control. You should then have a rough idea when debt-freedom is in sight and from there decide how long to continue working to meet your retirement savings goals.

Retirement income target

The often-used retirement income target is 70 per cent of your final pay, meaning if you earned a $100,000 salary in your final working years then you should aim for a retirement income goal of $70,000 per year. But new research suggests a more realistic retirement income target may be closer to 50 per cent.

Regardless, you’ll need to find YOUR retirement number and determine whether you can reach your income goals through some combination of workplace pension, personal savings (RRSP, TFSA, non-registered investments), CPP, OAS, and/or GIS.

Piecing that puzzle together takes a lot of planning (and still plenty of guess work). No wonder choosing a retirement date can seem like such a daunting challenge!

Taking advantage of your final working years

Continue Reading…

Dear Generation X: Here’s how to fix your Finances

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The number of financial responsibilities facing Generation X – those ages 37 to 52 today – seems overwhelming. Getting married, having kids, and raising a family can be expensive enough. Now factor in building an emergency fund, paying down the mortgage, setting aside money for retirement, saving for your child’s education, and everything else that comes along with improving your finances. It’s a tall order – I’ve been there! In fact, I’m living it.

But let’s skip the scaremongering and over-generalizations and get to some common sense advice.

How do you balance paying off debt, saving, and investing with the everyday costs of supporting a family? Let’s start by setting up a simple plan for each of these categories to ensure that you are on the right financial path. Here’s how to fix Generation X finances:

Treat consumer debt like a financial sin

You can’t move the needle forward financially if you’re constantly spending more than you earn. But when your mortgage payment, car payment(s), daycare costs, groceries, and gas take up your entire available budget then you have no wiggle room to plan for unexpected costs.

Not only that, when the “I deserve this” moments come up and you want to treat yourself or your family to dinner, a movie night, or a vacation you end up going into debt (just this one time) to make ends meet.

Start with a list of everything you currently spend over a period of three months. Where does all your money go? Find a way to slash expenses so that you’re no longer going into debt just to get through the month.

Make it a rule: No new debt this year

Now it’s time to tackle your current debt, whether that’s in the form of a lingering line of credit or (gasp!) a high-interest credit card. If it’s the latter, put all savings and extra spending on hold and throw every extra dollar at that debt until it’s paid off.
Continue Reading…