
Fourth Quarter 2026 Strategy Report (Q4 2026)
By Bipan Rai, BMO ETF & Structured Solutions
(Sponsor Blog)
Both as an epic poem and as a summer blockbuster hit film, ‘The Odyssey’ offers many lessons. For those of us in the investment profession, the most important one is to appreciate the evolving risks and what they could mean for our base case scenarios: lest we end up lost like our hero Odysseus. And to be frank, there are a lot of similarities between the beginning of Odysseus’s journey and where we are in the market cycle right now.
Currently, we remain entrenched in the ‘reflation’ part of the macroeconomic cycle. That is when most leading indicators imply that economic growth remains firm while price pressures remain sticky. Recent data backs this view: with composite Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) across the world’s largest economies still above levels that mark expanding economic growth (the notable exception being China).
The recent estimate for the September PMI reading in the U.S. indicates that businesses haven’t been this optimistic about future sales growth in years. That is also aligned to the strong U.S. data of late – including recent non-farm payrolls and retail sales reports – which suggests that the economy is expanding above its estimated potential growth rate.
This is the backdrop that we’ve operated in for several quarters, and it should continue to support broad risk appetite. However, we must also be mindful of the rising risks that are making this backdrop more precarious to those from prior quarters.
For instance, the conflict in the Middle East continues to complicate matters. It’s now been over seven months of below normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz: with global shortages leading to a pronounced increase in the prices of both energy and refined products. That is directly feeding into producer and consumer prices such that central banks can no longer look past the second-round effects. Indeed, three of the ‘big four’ central banks have hiked policy rates over the past month (the Federal Reserve, or the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan). There is also a very good chance that the Bank of Canada will end up hiking rates at one of its two remaining meetings this year. These are the main reasons why front-end yields have been rising across several markets.
Equally important are the moves in the long end, which are being driven by a multitude of factors. For one, there is increased competition amongst issuers, with U.S. corporations (hyperscalers mainly) looking to term out borrowing. (1)That is ‘crowding out’ sovereign bonds in the long end.
Second, the artificial intelligence (AI) boom is compounding the narrative of robust U.S. economic growth, which is raising market estimates of the long-run neutral interest rate: pushing up long-end yields (2) in the process. Finally, credibility risk is rising as few countries are seriously considering fiscal discipline at this point. All these factors are weighing on buyers in the long end, who are now far more price sensitive than they have been in years past.
Chart 1 – Long-term drivers for U.S. long-end yields
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2026.
And remember that given its composition, the S&P 500 Index is effectively a long-duration asset. Sectors that are mostly made up of firms whose valuation depends heavily on distant future cash flows (like technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, etc.) make up around 60% of the index. That leaves them vulnerable to higher long-end yields.
Chart 2 – The majority of S&P 500 sectors are negatively correlated to U.S. 10-year yield shifts
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2026.
Correlation: A statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to one another. Positive correlation indicates similar movements, up or down together, while negative correlation indicates opposite movements (when one rises, the other falls).
Another risk for markets is no longer a nascent one: the public backlash against AI. At the very least, this has been compounded by recent news that some frontier models had gone rogue, leading to a push within the industry for increased self-regulation or “pacing.” That compounds the lack of favourability of AI among the voting public that politicians are finding harder to ignore. For us, increased ‘pacing’ or regulation will matter given the heavy degree of capital investment we’ve seen go into the space. Any signs of waning demand or excess data center capacity imply a capex slowdown: a serious risk for both economic growth and for risk appetite. Continue Reading…











