Before you Decide: How do you Know if you made a Good Financial Decision?

Evidence over emotion. Process over prediction. Better decisions over better guesses.

Image created with ChatGPT by Lowrie Financial

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Welcome to Before You Decide, a series about the decisions that shape our financial lives. Each article explores a common financial question through the lens of evidence, behavioural finance, and more than three decades of working with Canadian families. The goal is not to predict the future, but to make better financial decisions with the information available today.

A financial decision can be sensible and still produce a disappointing result. It can also be poorly considered and make money. That is what makes investing so difficult.

Most of us naturally judge our decisions by their outcomes. If an investment rises, we assume the decision was good. If it falls, we assume somebody made a mistake. Behavioural economists have a name for this tendency. They call it outcome bias.

Outcome bias is our tendency to judge the quality of a decision by the result it produced rather than by the quality of the reasoning that led to it. The problem is that luck sits between a decision and its outcome, which means a good result does not always prove that the original decision was sound.

Every important financial decision should therefore be judged twice. The first judgment should take place when the decision is made, based on the quality of the reasoning and the information reasonably available at the time. The second should take place much later, after the outcome is known.

Most investors only perform the second evaluation, and that is where many costly mistakes begin.

Every investor eventually faces two different questions: Did my investment work, and was it a good decision? Those questions may sound similar, but they are not the same.

Why is outcome bias especially relevant today?

A relatively small group of technology and artificial intelligence related companies has recently produced outsized returns. Investors who concentrated their portfolios in some of these companies have been rewarded handsomely, while investors holding broadly diversified global portfolios may be wondering whether diversification has become an expensive form of caution.

We have seen this movie before.

During the technology and telecommunications boom of the late 1990s, a relatively small group of companies dominated both market returns and investor attention. The technologies were real, and many of the companies were genuinely innovative. That did not mean every investment made sense or every price was justified.

The same distinction matters today. Artificial Intelligence (AI) may profoundly change the economy without making every AI-related investment a good decision at current prices.

For a Canadian investor, a concentrated position in AI-related stocks may also involve several overlapping risks. It can amount to a concentrated commitment to one sector, one country, one currency, and often a relatively small number of companies. Those risks may continue to be rewarded for years, but they remain risks nonetheless.

The important question is not simply whether the investment works. It is whether the decision itself was well reasoned, whether the risks were understood, and whether the position made sense within the investor’s broader financial plan.

What are the four possible outcomes of a financial decision?

Every financial decision eventually falls into one of four categories:

A good process combined with a good outcome is what every investor hopes for. You followed a sensible process, understood the risks, and received a favourable result.

A good process followed by a disappointing outcome is more difficult to accept, but it does not necessarily mean the process failed. Good decisions improve the odds, they do not guarantee a particular result.

A poor process followed by a poor outcome is painful, although at least the mistake is visible. Something in the original reasoning can be examined, understood, and improved.

The most dangerous combination is a poor process followed by a good outcome. In that situation, the result appears to validate the decision, confidence grows, and the same choice may be repeated with more conviction and more money behind it. Nothing in the outcome forces the investor to question the original reasoning.

This is outcome bias at its most expensive. A temporary success becomes a lasting lesson for entirely the wrong reason.

Why do investors judge decisions by their outcomes?

Looking at the result is easy. Examining the decision is much harder.

By the time most people make an important financial choice, they have usually considered taxes, investment products, market forecasts, retirement planning, family needs, and competing advice. Mental fatigue encourages shortcuts, and recent performance becomes one of the easiest shortcuts available.

If the investment made money, it must have been a good decision. That conclusion feels natural, but it is not reliable.

I explored this idea in an earlier article about choice overload and decision fatigue. One of the best-known studies in behavioural economics found that shoppers presented with twenty-four varieties of jam were much less likely to make a purchase than shoppers offered only six. More choice attracted more attention, but it produced fewer decisions.

Investors face far more than twenty-four choices. Individual companies, sectors, countries, currencies, investment styles, economic forecasts, and an endless stream of financial commentary compete for our attention every day. When the menu becomes overwhelming, we naturally look for an easier way to judge our decisions, and recent returns become that shortcut.

There is another problem. We examine our losses far more carefully than our successes. When an investment disappoints, we search for mistakes. When it performs exceptionally well, we rarely ask how much of the result may simply have been good fortune.

Success seldom asks us to defend our thinking, which is one reason poor decisions with good outcomes can survive for so long.

How can you tell the difference between skill and luck?

One useful test is to ask whether a skilled participant can deliberately produce a poor result.

In an activity dominated by skill, that is usually possible. A strong chess player can lose a game on purpose because the relationship between skill and outcome is direct enough to control.

Now think about a concentrated stock portfolio over a single year. Could you reliably make it lose money? Probably not. Unexpected news, changing interest rates, investor enthusiasm, government policy, and countless other factors could move the investment in either direction.

That does not mean skill has no place in investing. Skill appears in building a diversified portfolio, managing risk, controlling costs, minimizing taxes, and staying disciplined when markets become emotional. It also appears in knowing what can be controlled and refusing to pretend that everything else can be predicted.

One year’s return therefore tells us far less about skill than most of us would like to believe.

Why is one investment result not enough to judge a decision?

A single investment outcome contains a great deal of noise, while a pattern across many decisions tells us much more.

Researchers at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania studied what happened when a large employer simplified the investment choices in its workplace retirement plan. Participants generally traded less, paid lower investment costs, and held more appropriate portfolios. The researchers estimated that lower costs alone could leave the average participant approximately US$9,400 better off over twenty years.

The participants did not become better investors because they learned to predict markets. They became better investors because the decision-making environment improved.

That distinction matters because better financial outcomes often come from better decision-making processes rather than better predictions.

What does outcome bias look like in real life?

Several years ago, I had a client who decided, against my advice, to sell a diversified investment portfolio and make a concentrated commitment to residential investment real estate in Toronto.

The decision did not happen in isolation. Another advisor was enthusiastically promoting recent real estate returns and presenting the strategy as an opportunity that should not be missed. Like many investment stories built on recent success, it appealed to a powerful fear of missing out. Continue Reading…

Beyond the Vault: How Retirees can earn Monthly Income from Gold’s Historic Run

By Paul MacDonald, CFA, Harvest ETFs

(Special to Financial Independence Hub)

Gold has ascended to record highs since the start of 2025, proving to be one of the defining stories in the market at the midway point of the decade. Indeed, the yellow metal has rewarded patience as much as conviction with its run-up in 2025 and 2026. The spot price of gold bullion was priced just over US$2,500 per ounce starting 2025 and finished up the year nearly 60%. That momentum carried into the new year in 2026, with gold surging to an all-time high of over $5,500 an ounce in late January.

The gold rally hit turbulence due to the escalating US-Iran military conflict, pushing oil and inflation expectations higher. This prompted markets to price out U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, spurring the yellow metal to lose more than 10% in the month of March alone; its worst monthly decline since 2013.

Gold Price in USD/oz Since 2014

Source: Bloomberg, June 30, 2026.

Gold has held onto the bulk of its gains heading into the summer of 2026. That has left investors, particularly those in or approaching retirement, to weigh how the world’s oldest store of value fits alongside the steady income their portfolios need to provide.

The different ways to own gold

Investors have often leaned on gold in two distinct ways: bullion and equities.

Gold bullion, which is represented in physical bars, coins, and the ETFs that track the spot price directly, has served its traditional role as a store of value and a hedge against currency debasement, fiscal uncertainty, and geopolitical shocks. Bullion has no counterpart risk, does not default, and does not dilute. This is why long-term allocators, and central banks, favour it as a ballast. This is the kind of protection retirees may prioritize or seek when preserving capital matters as much as growing it.

Rising sovereign debt and eroding confidence in fiat monetary systems have driven both physical bar purchases and large institutional buying. Meanwhile, global gold ETF inflows reached a record US$89 billion in 2025.

Gold equities, which are represented by gold miners and the ETFs built around them, offer a different exposure entirely. Miners carry operating leverage to the gold price. Their earnings, and respective share prices, tend to amplify moves in the underlying metal, for better and worse.https://www.etf.com/sections/data-dive/gdx-stock-vs-gold-price-miner-etf

That leverage showed up clearly in performance, as mining ETFs more than doubled the return of gold spot in 2025. Take the Harvest Global Gold Giants Index ETF (TSX: HGGG) as an example. This ETF is designed to give investors gold exposure through large-scale gold miners and HGGG has climbed 87% over a 1-year period as of June 30, 2026.

HPYG | Gold bullion & gold equities with monthly income

The Harvest Premium Yield Gold ETF (TSX: HPYG) launched on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, and stands as an option for investors who want exposure to both sides of the equation; gold bullion and leading gold equities, without having to choose between preservation and growth. That combined approach pairs the ballast of physical gold with the torque of producer stocks in a single vehicle. Continue Reading…

The Best High-Risk Stocks to Invest In for Aggressive Investors

Aggressive investors looking at high-risk, aggressive stocks to invest in should only allocate a small part of their portfolios to those investments 

TSInetwork.ca

There are always investment-related worries to occupy the minds of investors looking for good Canadian stocks; but focusing on high-risk, aggressive stocks to invest in just makes it worse. That applies even to “hot” investments similar to a ChatGPT stock.

It’s only natural to worry about your investments, even good Canadian stocks, whether that’s during the kind of bull market we saw in 2021, or the COVID downturn of 2020 or the current volatile market.

But being able to overcome that worry is one of the most important traits a successful investor can have. It’s especially important when investors are looking for high-risk stocks to invest in.

Anxiety recedes with investment quality, diversification and balance

You’ll find that many of your worries centre on things that are unlikely to happen; that are already largely discounted in current stock prices; and that probably won’t matter as much as you feared they would. That also applies when you’re looking for the best high-risk, aggressive stocks to invest in, like something similar to a ChatGPT-like stock or other AI star.

You get a much better return on time spent if you devote less of it to worrying about high-risk, aggressive stocks to invest in, and more of it on forming an investing strategy that focuses on good Canadian stocks, for example. Create a strategy that is built upon analyzing the quality and diversification of your investments, and the structure and balance of your portfolio.

There’s another advantage as well. A calm investor is much less likely to react in haste and make sudden decisions that could prove to be damaging in the long run such as devoting a large portion of your portfolio to a ChatGPT-like stock or another darling of momentum investors instead of focusing on good Canadian stocks.

Pink sheet stocks are the Wild West of U.S.-based stocks—and only for investors looking for high-risk stocks to invest in … with money they can afford to lose

Companies that trade on the U.S. over-the-counter market are said to trade as “pink sheet stocks,” a holdover from the days when the quotes for these stocks were printed on pink paper.

Today, OTC Markets Group (formerly Pink OTC Markets Inc.), a private company, is the main provider of pricing and financial information for the over-the-counter (OTC) securities markets.

OTC Markets Group operates a centralized information network that includes services for market makers, issuers, brokers and OTC investors. This information aims to make OTC trading more efficient and improve access to capital for OTC issuers.

Unlike good Canadian stocks, many companies that trade “pink sheets stocks” usually don’t have sufficient market caps, or enough shareholders, to meet most stock exchanges’ minimum criteria. That includes several penny stocks that purport to be the next ChatGPT stock.

Over-the-counter shares are often sporadically or inactively traded. That can make buying penny stocks and pink sheet stocks (and selling them) more difficult and expensive than shares of larger stock exchanges.

As well, over-the-counter stocks trade through “market makers,” or traders who maintain an orderly market in a particular stock by standing ready to buy or sell shares. The market maker’s job is to maintain a firm bid and ask price for their assigned securities. If a broker wants to buy a stock, but there are no offers to sell it, the market maker fills the order by selling shares from their own firm’s account. If a broker wants to sell, but no one wants to buy, the market maker buys the shares.

Over-the-counter stocks may at times seem to offer extraordinary opportunities, but this can be an expensive illusion. Most legitimate companies with substantial growth potential will want to leave the over-the-counter market as quickly as possible, and move to the major markets. This tilts the odds against you.

That’s why we’ve always stayed out of the over-the-counter market, and are likely to continue to stay out as we focus on good Canadian stocks and good U.S. stocks. There are just too many attractive buying opportunities in major markets where risk is lower and your chances of making money are much better. Continue Reading…

How to think about a Mortgage Renewal Offer before you Sign

Image courtesy of FairRate Canada

By Andy Atchison, FairRate Canada

(Special to Financial Independence Hub)

Getting a mortgage renewal letter seems pretty straightforward. Your lender gives you a new rate and payment, you sign it, and you’re done.

At least that’s how it looks.

What I started wondering was: how does the average homeowner actually know if the offer they’re getting is any good?

I’m not a mortgage broker or financial adviser. I’m just someone who started digging into this and realized it’s surprisingly difficult to get a simple answer. You can search mortgage rates online in about 30 seconds. The problem is that the rate you find isn’t necessarily comparable to the renewal offer sitting in front of you.

There can be different conditions, different mortgage types, different equity requirements and all sorts of other details attached to an advertised rate. So if your bank offers you 4.89% and you find 4.24% online, that doesn’t automatically mean your bank is ripping you off.

But I’d certainly want to know why there’s a difference.

The rate is a starting point

Obviously the interest rate matters.

A difference that looks fairly small on paper can make a noticeable difference to your payment, especially with a large mortgage balance.

But there are other things worth looking at too.

What are the prepayment privileges? What happens if you need to break the mortgage early? Is it portable? Are there fees or restrictions? And if another lender has a lower rate, what would it actually cost and involve to move the mortgage?

Those details aren’t nearly as exciting as finding a lower rate, but they can matter.

There’s nothing wrong with staying with your bank

I think this part sometimes gets lost.

Switching lenders isn’t automatically the smart move. Continue Reading…

Your Best Investment could become a Huge Tax Problem

How American and Canadian investors can reduce capital gains taxes after decades of buying and holding.

AlainGuilot.com via Grok


By Alain Guillot

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Buying a broad-market ETF and holding it for decades is one of the simplest ways to build wealth.

You buy an ETF like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) for U.S. investors or the iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF (XIU) for Canadian investors. You reinvest the dividends, ignore the daily market noise and continue adding money whenever you can.

Twenty years later, the strategy has worked beautifully.

But now you have a new problem: how do you reduce capital gains tax when selling an ETF that has increased enormously in value?

This is the strange punishment for being a successful long-term investor.

You followed the advice to buy and hold. You resisted panic selling. You avoided speculation and unnecessary trading.

Now your portfolio may contain hundreds of thousands of dollars in unrealized gains.

Selling a large amount in one year could create a substantial tax bill. It could also push your income into a higher tax bracket and affect income-tested benefits.

This is not merely a theoretical question for me. I have accumulated VOO and XIU for many years, and I know that selling a large portion at once could create a painful tax expense.

Fortunately, selling everything in one year is not the only option.

First, Understand the Capital Gains Problem

Suppose you invested $200,000 in VOO over many years.

Your investment is now worth $700,000.

Your unrealized capital gain is approximately:

$700,000 market value − $200,000 cost = $500,000 gain

You do not owe capital gains tax simply because VOO increased in value.

The tax is generally triggered when you sell or otherwise dispose of the investment.

That means you have some control over when the gain is realized.

The central question is not:

How can I avoid paying any tax?

A better question is:

How can I realize this gain gradually and pay the lowest reasonable amount of tax over my lifetime?

That change in perspective is important.

Reduce Capital Gains Tax by Avoiding One Giant Sale

The worst approach may be to sell the entire position without first calculating the consequences.

A large sale could concentrate decades of gains into a single tax year.

In both Canada and the United States, capital gains interact with the investor’s other income. Realizing more gains can bump you up to a higher tax braket and thus you will pay a higher tax rate.

A more efficient strategy is often to sell your ETF gradually.

For example, an investor could sell enough each year to cover:

  • Annual living expenses
  • Planned travel
  • Major purchases
  • Charitable donations
  • Portfolio rebalancing

Instead of realizing a $500,000 gain in one year, the investor might spread the gain over 10, 15 or 20 years.

This does not eliminate the tax.

It gives the investor more control over the rate and timing and hi might be taxed in a lower tax bracket.

Strategy 1: Sell more during Low-income Years

Some years are naturally better than others for realizing capital gains.

Good opportunities may arise:

  • After retirement but before pensions begin
  • Before collecting Social Security or government benefits
  • Before mandatory retirement-account withdrawals
  • During a sabbatical or period of reduced employment
  • In a year with large deductions
  • In a year when business income is unusually low

These lower-income years can create room to realize gains at a more favourable rate.

For American investors

The United States applies special federal tax rates to long-term capital gains.

Depending on taxable income, some long-term capital gains may fall into the 0% federal capital gains bracket. Higher-income investors generally face 15% or 20% federal rates, and some may also owe the 3.8% net investment income tax. State taxes may apply as well.

This creates a powerful planning opportunity.

An American investor with unusually low taxable income may sell some VOO, realize a long-term gain and potentially pay no federal capital gains tax on part of that gain.

The investor can then buy VOO again.

The newly purchased shares receive a higher cost basis, reducing a future taxable gain.

For Canadian investors

Canada does not have a special 0% capital gains bracket comparable to the American system.

Instead, only a portion of a capital gain is included in taxable income. The proposed increase in Canada’s capital gains inclusion rate was cancelled, leaving the one-half inclusion system in place.

If a Canadian investor realizes a $20,000 capital gain, $10,000 is generally included in taxable income under the one-half inclusion rate.

The final tax depends on the investor’s federal and provincial marginal tax rates.

A Canadian investor with little other income may therefore realize gains at a relatively modest tax cost. The investor can repurchase their ETF immediately, increasing the adjusted cost base.

This practice is known as capital gain harvesting.

Strategy 2: Harvest Capital Gains every year

Most investors have heard about tax-loss harvesting.

Capital gain harvesting receives far less attention.

Here is how it works:

  1. Estimate your taxable income for the year.
  2. Calculate how much additional capital gain you can realize without entering an undesirable tax bracket.
  3. Sell enough of your ETF to realize that gain.
  4. Repurchase the same ETF inmediately after selling it.
  5. Record the transaction and update the cost basis.

The investor remains invested while gradually increasing the tax cost of the portfolio.

Over many years, this can reduce the unrealized gain that remains in the account. I use this strategy every year. I sell a portion of my investments, realize some capital gains, and buy the same investment inmediately after selling it.

Can you buy the same ETF back immediately?

Yes, when you sold it for a gain.

The American wash-sale rule and the Canadian superficial-loss rule are designed to restrict the recognition of losses when substantially identical securities are quickly repurchased.

They do not generally prevent an investor from repurchasing an investment immediately after realizing a gain.

Capital gain harvesting can therefore be completed without remaining out of the market for 30 days.

The disadvantage is that you are paying some tax earlier than necessary. As a citizen of this wonderful country, I don’t mind paying some taxes on my gains, as long as those taxes are not exessive and feel as a punishment for my success.

Money paid in tax today can no longer remain invested and compound.

The strategy is most attractive when the current tax rate is lower than the rate you reasonably expect to face later.

Strategy 3: Use Capital Losses to Offset your ETF Gains

A diversified portfolio may contain investments that have declined in value.

Selling one of those investments creates a capital loss that may offset part of the gain realized from selling your ETF. This strategy is called Tax-loss harvesting.

For example:

  • Gain from selling VOO: $30,000
  • Loss from selling another investment: $12,000
  • Net capital gain: $18,000

This allows the investor to reduce the VOO position while limiting the immediate tax bill.

United States

American investors can use capital losses against capital gains.

When losses exceed gains, a limited amount may generally be deducted against other income, with unused losses carried forward to later years.

The wash-sale rule must be considered before repurchasing the losing investment.

Canada

Canadian net capital losses can generally be used against taxable capital gains.

Unused net capital losses may normally be carried back as far as three years or carried forward to future years.

Canada’s superficial-loss rule may deny an immediate loss when the investor—or an affiliated person—buys the same or identical property during the restricted period and still owns it 30 days after the sale.

Again, this rule matters for losses, not gains.

Strategy 4: Donate your ETF instead of Cash

Investors who regularly support charities should consider donating appreciated ETF shares directly.

This can be much more tax-efficient than selling your ETF and donating cash.

For American investors

An American investor who donates qualifying appreciated securities held for more than one year may generally avoid recognizing the embedded capital gain.

The investor may also qualify for a charitable deduction, subject to deduction limits, documentation requirements and whether the investor itemizes deductions.

The charity receives the shares and can sell them without creating a capital gains tax bill for the donor.

Instead of donating $10,000 in cash, the investor could transfer $10,000 of his long held ETF containing a large unrealized gain.

The investor keeps the cash and removes some of the portfolio’s oldest, lowest-cost shares.

For Canadian investors

Canada also offers favourable treatment for direct donations of publicly traded securities to registered charities.

Qualifying donations can receive a zero capital-gains inclusion rate, while the donor may also receive a charitable donation tax credit.

The important word is directly.

Selling your ETF first and donating the cash may trigger the capital gain. Transferring the ETF shares directly to the charity may avoid it.

This is one of the few strategies that can genuinely eliminate the tax on part of an appreciated ETF position.

Of course, it only makes financial sense for money that the investor already intends to give to charity.

Strategy 5: Choose which Shares to Sell

This is one area where the American and Canadian systems differ significantly.

American investors may identify specific shares

An American investor may have purchased his favorite ETF at many different prices.

Some shares may have a cost basis of $150, while newer shares may have a basis of $500.

When selling, the investor may be able to instruct the broker to sell specific shares.

Selling the highest-cost shares first produces a smaller taxable gain.

For example:

  • Sale price: $600
  • Old share cost: $150
  • Gain: $450

Compared with:

  • Sale price: $600
  • Newer share cost: $500
  • Gain: $100

Specific-share identification can help American investors control which gains are realized. Proper instructions and records are essential. IRS guidance requires investors to maintain records supporting the basis of their investments.

Canadian investors use an average adjusted cost base

Canadian investors generally cannot select the highest-cost ETF shares and pretend those were the only units sold.

Identical securities are pooled together.

The investor must calculate the average adjusted cost base of all identical ETF units held in non-registered accounts. The gain on a sale is based on that average cost.

This makes accurate recordkeeping especially important.

Broker records may not always correctly combine ETF held across multiple Canadian taxable accounts.

Honestly I prefer the Canadian systeme of average adjusted cost much better. I have been making many different purchases during more than 10 years. It’s a headache to keep record of that small purchase I did of the XIU ETF 10 years ago.

Strategy 6: Keep Accurate Records

Before worrying about how to reduce capital gains tax, make sure the gain has been calculated correctly.

An incorrect cost basis can produce an unnecessarily large tax bill.

The records should include:

  • Every purchase
  • Reinvested distributions
  • Brokerage commissions
  • Stock splits
  • Transfers between brokers
  • Return-of-capital distributions
  • Previous sales
  • Currency conversions, when applicable

Special issue for Canadians holding U.S ETFs in U.S. dollars

U.S. ETF trades in U.S. dollars, but Canadian taxes must generally be calculated in Canadian dollars.

The purchase cost must be translated into Canadian dollars using the appropriate exchange rate at the time of purchase. The sale proceeds must also be translated using the relevant exchange rate at the time of sale.

A gain that appears to be modest in U.S. dollars may be larger in Canadian dollars if the Canadian dollar weakened during the holding period.

The CRA calculates gains by subtracting the adjusted cost base and selling expenses from the proceeds of disposition.

Investors who accumulated a U.S. ETF over 20 years may need to reconstruct many transactions.

That effort can be worthwhile.

Finding forgotten purchases, commissions or reinvested distributions may increase the adjusted cost base and reduce the taxable gain.

Strategy 7: Stop Reinvesting Dividends

An investor who is approaching retirement may not need to continue reinvesting every dividend from their ETF.

Instead, the cash distributions can be used for living expenses.

Continue Reading…