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We’ve all been enjoying the bull market. But getting a historically respectable 6 per cent return, or even doubling it, can feel underwhelming when the economy is roaring ahead and the Nasdaq has gone up 30 per cent. From what I see, the difference between the big winners and the also-ran-investors often comes down to whether or not they let their biases cloud their judgement. Even experienced investors are not immune.
It’s such a big problem that an entire field of study has sprouted out of this: behavioral economics. Economist Richard Thaler won a Nobel prize for his work looking at how these biases operate among humans in a supposedly rational market.
Here’s a roundup of the worst mistakes I see again and again from DIY investors (which is why a lot of these people would be better off with a set-it-and-forget-it strategy).
Running with the herd
If you want an above-average return, then don’t rush into what the crowd is doing.
Probably the most outrageous example of this mistake is to be found in the irrational exuberance over Bitcoin. Just $1,000 worth of Bitcoin from a few years ago would be over $1 million today. If you threw caution to the wind and invested in this years ago, then you have certainly seen the kind of ROI that Wall Street hedge fund managers can only dream of. But all those gains are in the past, to the benefit of the early adopters.
The vast majority of investors have arrived late to this party. Most of the large gains have already been captured. And while there may be more growth yet to come, experts say that Bitcoin eventually seems destined to repeat its bust cycles of 2011 and 2014. The herd is about to race off a cliff. Usually, by the time your neighbor next door is jumping on the bandwagon, it’s already past time to get off.
Recency bias
We all know that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And yet, it is basically human nature to ignore that knowledge.
In life, recency bias is actually a useful rule of thumb a lot of the time. Your friend who always shows up late will show up late again. The restaurant you liked years ago, but whose quality keeps declining will continue to suck, in new and intolerable ways.
For investing, recency bias can really do harm. We see a line graph showing a steadily-rising return, like with the Nasdaq: well, why wouldn’t that trend continue? Because it can’t. Over time, as an asset rises in value, we can expect it to fall back down to the mean.






