All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Then and Now – Revisiting the need for bonds

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Image courtesy myownadvisor/Pexels

By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to Financial Independence Hub

It has been said bonds make bad times better.

Is this the reason to own bonds?

Welcome to another Then and Now post, a continuation of my series where I revisit some older blogposts and either rip them to shreds (because my thinking has totally changed on such subjects) or I’ll confirm my position on various personal finance topics or specific stock and ETF investments.

Since my last Then and Now post (whereby I shared I sold out of all Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock to buy other equities in recent years), I figured it might be interesting to review this post and update my thinking from a few years ago before the pandemic hit – on bonds.

Then – on bonds

Back in 2015 when the original post was shared, I referenced this quote that frames my own portfolio management approach when it comes to my bias to owning stocks over bonds:

“If you want to make the most money, you should invest in stocks. But if you want to keep the money you made in stocks, you should invest in bonds.” – Paul Merriman.

Bonds are essentially parachutes when equity markets fall; bonds will cushion the portfolio landing. And equity markets can fail big at times!

While I understand there are different ways to measure the “equity risk premium,” the summary IMO is the same: the risk premium is the measure of the additional return that investors demand or expect for taking on a particular kind of risk, relative to some alternative.

Buy a bond and hold it until it matures and you know what you will get back.

Invest in equities and the range of outcomes is wide.

With equities, you could make a lot of money, but you could lose a lot.

Equities have to have a higher expected return to compensate investors for taking on this risk.

Otherwise, if the risk premium is not there – why bother with stocks at all?

Now – on bonds

That’s the rub these days, for many investors. Why invest in stocks when interest rates are higher and you can earn 4-5% essentially risk-free?

Of course, there is no way of knowing how equities or bonds will perform until returns for each happen. You can consider rebalancing your portfolio from time to time between stocks and bonds because you expect equities will do better longer-term but that doesn’t mean they will short-term.

Which brings me back to this: risk is the price of the entry ticket to buy and hold stocks. Continue Reading…

Is a Tax Credit a better way to support Social Housing?

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image courtesy CMI Financial Group

By Kevin Fettig

Special to Financial Independence Hub

One of the biggest challenges in Canada’s rental housing crisis is the lack of new affordable housing units being built.

Despite efforts through the National Housing Strategy’s five programs, only 17,000 units were delivered after four years. This disappointing outcome is only a modest improvement over Ottawa’s track record in the past 30 years. For example, between 1996 and 2013, fewer than 7,000 new units were provided by federal and provincial governments.

In contrast, the United States built 3.5 million subsidized rental units from 1987 to 2021. Adjusted for population, this is equivalent to building 11,000 units per year in Canada. Both countries have tightened the tax benefits of rental real estate, but the U.S. offset this policy shift by introducing the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) to mitigate the impact of these changes on low- and middle-income renters.

A Canadian LIHTC would offer an alternative method of federal funding by leveraging private-sector expertise in owning, building, and managing low-income rental housing. The LIHTC would provide tax credits to both for-profit and nonprofit owners of rental housing, with nonprofits having the option to sell these tax credits. A key aspect of the program would be its efficient resource allocation, achieved by creating competition among developers for tax credits and using a market-based test for the viability and need for low-income housing.

Complements existing Renter Support Initiatives

The program could be designed to complement existing renter support initiatives, such as local government programs, housing allowances, and rent supplements. It would work by providing tax credits to developers, who would then pass them on to investors to offset their income tax.

Unlike earlier tax credit programs like the Multiple Unit Residential Buildings (MURB) provision, this program would have a cap, with credits allocated annually to each region based on population. The credits would be federally funded and awarded according to provincial objectives. Continue Reading…

Beat the TSX portfolio, Canadian Wide Moats rule

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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

In this Sunday Reads we’ll begin with a look at the first half returns for the Beat The TSX Portfolio and the Canadian Wide Moat Portfolios. The Beat The TSX Portfolio is a pure value play, discovered by those big dividends. The Canadian Wide Moat Portfolio relies on the moats – a lack of competition. There are a few key oligopoly sectors in Canada. While both Canadian stock portfolio approaches have a nice history of beating the market, the BTSX is more volatile, while the Wide Moats are more low volatility by design. The BTSX Portfolio continues to struggle while the Wide Moats continue to best the market.

Here’s the updated post on The Beat The TSX Portfolio.

For the first half of 2024, it’s 6% vs 1.3% in favour of the passive TSX Composite.

And here’s the updated post for the Canadian Wide Moat Portfolios.

The wide moat portfolio has beat the TSX by some 1.6% annual over the last decade. That said, it has underperformed from 2023. I can still find no better model for the large cap Canadian space. It tracks closely to (but slightly outperforms) the BMO Low Volatility ETF – ZLB.TO.

Shareholder yield

I really liked this post and screen in the Globe & Mail (sub required). Companies that have a lot of free cash flow typically perform very well. They can buy back shares (increasing your ownership) and pay bigger and increasing dividends. We call that combination the shareholder yield. The screen also looked at valuation, quality and more. Here’s where it landed. It’s a nice sixpack …

And check out the buy back and dividend history for Canadian Natural Resources. My favourite oil and gas stock …

More on oil and gas …

The markets last week Continue Reading…

Navigating the Challenges of Solo Entrepreneurship

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By Devin Partida

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Solo entrepreneurs face unique financial challenges, including inconsistent income streams, high operational costs, limited access to capital and the difficulty of separating personal and business finances. Effective financial planning becomes crucial to navigating these hurdles and ensuring sustainable business operations and long-term success.

Creating realistic budgets, building emergency funds and managing expenses allows solo entrepreneurs to stabilize their financial health. Additionally, seeking professional financial advice offers personalized strategies, tax planning and investment guidance, which are essential for securing a stable and prosperous future.

Unique financial hurdles for Solo Entrepreneurs

Variable revenue presents significant challenges for solo entrepreneurs in budgeting and managing expenses. The unpredictable nature of income makes it difficult to plan for consistent cash flow, often leading to financial strain. According to a recent survey, 77% of respondents reported their expenses increased by 6% or more due to inflation, further complicating financial planning.

Solo entrepreneurs also face the challenge of managing overhead costs without the benefit of economies of scale. Unlike larger businesses that can reduce per-unit costs through bulk purchasing, they must find ways to cover operational expenses efficiently. In fact, 37% of small businesses resort to borrowing to meet their operating expenses, which highlights the financial pressure they endure.

Securing loans and investments is another hurdle for solo entrepreneurs. Financial institutions and investors may view them as high-risk due to their lack of a proven track record and limited collateral. This makes it difficult for single proprietors to obtain the necessary funding to grow and sustain their businesses. Continue Reading…

Are Alternative Investments really the Holy Grail of Investing?

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Amazon.ca

By Michael J. Wiener

Special to Financial Independence Hub 

Tony Robbins’ latest book, The Holy Grail of Investing, written with Christopher Zook, is a strong sales pitch for investors to move into alternative investments such as private equity, private credit, and venture capital.

I decided to give it a chance to challenge my current plans to stay out of alternative investments.  The book has some interesting parts — mainly the interviews with several alternative investment managers — but it didn’t change my mind.

The book begins with the usual disclaimers about not being intended “to serve as the basis for any financial decision” and not being a substitute for expert legal and accounting advice.  However, it also has a disclosure:

“Tony Robbins is a minority passive shareholder of CAZ Investments, an SEC registered investment advisor (RIA).  Mr. Robbins does not have an active role in the company.  However, as shareholder, Mr. Robbins and Mr. Zook have a financial incentive to promote and direct business to CAZ Investments.”

This disclosure could certainly make a reader suspect the authors’ motives for their breathless promotion of the benefits of alternative investments and their reverence for alternative investment managers.  However, I chose to ignore this and evaluate the book’s contents for myself.

The most compelling part of the pitch was that “private equity produced average annual returns of 14.28 percent over the thirty-six-year period ending in 2022.  The S&P 500 produced 9.24 percent.”  Unfortunately, the way private equity returns are calculated is misleading, as I explained in an earlier post.  The actual returns investors get is lower than these advertised returns.

Ray Dalio and uncorrelated investment strategies

The authors frequently repeat that Ray “Dalio’s approach is to utilize eight to twelve uncorrelated investment strategies.”  However, if the reported returns of alternative investments are fantasies, then their correlation values are fantasies as well.  I have no confidence as an investor that my true risk level would be as low as it appears.

Much of the rest of the authors’ descriptions of alternative investments sounds good, but there is no good reason for me to believe that I would get better returns than if I continue to own public equities.

I choose not to invest in individual stocks because I know that I’d be competing against brilliant investors working full-time.  I don’t place my money with star fund managers because I can’t predict which few managers will outperform by enough to cover their fees.  These problems look even worse to me in the alternative investment space.  I don’t lack confidence, but I try to be realistic about going up against the best in the world. Continue Reading…