
By Bipan Rai, BMO Global Asset Management
(Sponsor Blog)
When one hears the term ‘American exceptionalism,’ for some investors, the first images that come to mind are perhaps that of a certain President-elect and his inclinations towards jingoism. But the usage of the term outside of the U.S. has intensified of late, particularly when it comes to markets.
Indeed, more than any other time in modern history, the U.S. markets are benefitting from a strong influx of foreign capital (Chart 1). The impact has been profound, with U.S. equity market valuations now at levels that go beyond what is generally thought reasonable, while the U.S. dollar (USD) is trading close to two-year highs. Within the leading global equity index, the U.S. accounts for almost 70% of the weight, well over double where things stood a few decades ago.
Chart 1 – U.S. Attracts more Foreign Capital than any Other Point in History
Source: BEA, BMO Global Asset Management, as of December 31, 2024.
Chart 2 – Two-Year Price Return of Selected Equity Indices
*In USD terms, prices only. Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of December 31, 2024.
Now, there are several easily digestible reasons why the U.S. market continues to capture the hearts and minds of investors worldwide. To start, U.S. economic fundamentals remain sound, with flexible labour and deep capital markets combining to deliver an enviable track record of productivity. That’s directly helped generate impressive earnings for American companies. Additionally, lower debt levels among U.S. households (compared to other developed markets) buttress a strong propensity to consume. As such, the U.S. economy has expanded by an average of just under 3% year-over-year (YoY) over the past four quarters – even with interest rates not far off generational highs.
Chart 3 – Average Real Growth by Economy (Past Four Quarters, Year-Over-Year)
Source: BMO Global Asset Management Q3 2023-Q3 2024
Those sorts of fundamentals form the bedrock of why the U.S. continues to draw in foreign capital. From the eyes of global investors, Japanese and European markets offer too low of a yield, with political risk for the latter becoming more of a risk going forward. Meanwhile, authorities in China appear bent on moving forward with deleveraging in the real estate sector and at the regional government level. That means the necessary stimulus to prop up Chinese consumption will likely be done piecemeal and via monetary policy. Elsewhere, while some Emerging Markets (EM) may still offer relatively attractive yields, the risk profile looks very different as inflation threats linger and the world’s largest buyer of EM goods (the U.S.) becomes more insular. And we haven’t even mentioned the liquidity of U.S. assets – which becomes very attractive during volatile periods. Add it all up, and the risk/return profile in the U.S. looks far better than it does in any other country.
4 Reasons to Reorient Exposures
However, having said the above, the coast is not all clear for another banner year for U.S. assets. Instead, we see strong enough arguments that tell us that U.S. assets shouldn’t perform to the same degree that they have over the past few years. Being less enthusiastic about the theme of ‘U.S. exceptionalism’ means that we will be orienting our strategy for the coming year away from index plays and towards alternative investments and structured outcomes that are tailored towards generating cashflow. There are many reasons why we think this will be the optimal strategy to pursue. Continue Reading…








