By Benjamin Felix, for Boomer & Echo
Special to the Financial Independence Hub
Canadians value few things more than a home that is owned outright. This might be especially true for retirees. The thinking seems to be that once your mortgage is paid off, your housing expenses evaporate. Unfortunately, this could not be further from the truth.
The alternative, renting, is often frowned upon. Renting is seen as throwing money away. The reality is that renting in retirement can make a lot of sense, both financially and psychologically, when it is properly understood.
The first step to accepting renting as a sensible housing choice is understanding the financial aspect of the decision. To compare the financial implications of renting and owning we need a common ground. That common ground is unrecoverable costs.
Unrecoverable Costs
Rent is an unrecoverable cost. It is paid in exchange for a place to live, and there is no equity or other residual value afterward. That is easy to grasp.
Owning also has unrecoverable costs. They are less obvious and usually get missed in the renting versus owning discussion. An owner of a mortgage-free home still has to pay property taxes and maintenance costs, both unrecoverable, to maintain their home. Each of these costs can be estimated at 1% of the value of the home per year on average.
In addition, an owner absorbs an economic cost for keeping their capital in their home as opposed to investing it in stocks and bonds. This economic cost, or opportunity cost, is a real cost that an owner needs to consider. Estimating this portion of the cost of owning is harder to do. It requires estimating expected returns for stocks, bonds, and real estate for comparison with each other.
Expected Returns
Estimating expected returns is not an easy task; it starts with understanding historical risk premiums. The market will demand more expected return for riskier assets, and this relationship is visible in historical returns.
For stocks, bonds, and real estate, the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook offers data going back to 1900. Globally, the real return for real estate, that’s net of inflation, from 1900 through 2017 was 1.3%, while stocks returned 5% after inflation, and bonds returned 1.9%. If we assume inflation at 1.7%, then we would be thinking about a 3% nominal return for real estate, a 6.7% nominal return for global stocks, and a 3.6% nominal return for global bonds.
To keep things simple and conservative, we will assume that real estate continues to return a nominal 3%, while stocks return an average of 6%, and bonds return 3%.
The Cost of Capital
With a set of expected returns, we can now start thinking about the cost of capital. Every dollar that a home owner has in home equity is a dollar that they could be investing in a portfolio of stocks and bonds. A retiree is unlikely to have an aggressive portfolio of 100% stocks, so we will use the 5.10% expected return for a 70% stock and 30% bond portfolio. The 2.10% difference in expected returns between the portfolio and real estate is the opportunity cost carried by the owner.
It is important to note that asset allocation, which is a big driver of these numbers, will depend on many factors including other sources of income like pensions, tolerance for risk, and portfolio withdrawal rate.
Comparing Apples to Apples
Adding up the unrecoverable costs, we now have 4.10% of the home value between property tax, maintenance costs, and the cost of capital. This is the figure that we can compare to rent.
A $500,000 home would have an estimated annual unrecoverable cost of $20,500 ($500,000 X 4.10%), or $1,708 per month. If a suitable rental could be found for that amount, then renting would be an equivalent financial decision in terms of the expected economic impact.
Other Financial Considerations
So far, we have looked at pre-tax returns. Taxes could play an important role in this decision. Increases in the value of a principal residence are not taxed. Income and capital returns on an investment portfolio are taxed. Continue Reading…