General

Hello 2025: Investing in the Zero Visibility Age

 

By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

While there is only one trading day left in 2024, it is clear that it is another year that fooled everyone. The year 2023 fooled economists and market prognosticators with U.S. stocks up over 26% in U.S. Dollars (and up more in Canadian Dollars). 2024 is shaping up as a carbon copy in performance and in big swing and miss predictions. Canadian stocks are looking to finish the year up over 20%. Good luck making predictions as we enter 2025: a zero visibility age. Trump economic ‘policy’ will likely shape the year. There’s just no tellin’ what will happen.

But before we move on to 2025, some Santa stock market rally housekeeping.

Here’s the history of Santa rallies from 2000 on Seeking Alpha.

As can be seen from the chart, a Santa rally has successfully occurred 18 times out of 24 in the 2000s. One year saw a flat performance, while five years saw a decline, including as recently as 2023.

But so far, Santa read the Trump economic policy and went back into Santa’s house to have a nice hot chocolate. Here’s the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), more representative of broader market sentiment.

Or maybe Santa went inside for something a little stronger, perhaps a few hot totties.

And more holiday fun …

Did a rally start last Tuesday? Who knows. True, US and Canadian markets took a big hit down yesterday  with the Dow down 418.5 points or 1% and Nasdaq fell 1.2% (Monday, Dec. 30th). But it doesn’t really matter it’s obvious that 2024 was a wonderful year for investors who stayed the course, stayed invested; for investors who stuck to their investment plan. The final returns for stock markets will simply be statistics for the record books.

Trumpenomics and 2025

In the Globe & Mail John Rapley did a nice summary of the battle between the Fed, bond markets and Donald Trump’s economic ‘policy’. I put policy in quotes because the incoming U.S. President’s platform is currently more threats than anything else.

Here’s a key paragraph …

But it now looks like the Fed may be girding for a battle with the administration, with some governors hinting that they’re beginning to factor the inflationary impact of his policies into their own projections. If they decide to counterbalance a loose fiscal policy with a tight monetary one, the economic prognosis may well change.

Translation: proposed Trump tax cuts and looser regulations will battle with inflationary tariffs and deportations. Add in crippling U.S. debts and deficits. The bond market has been moving rates higher. The stock market (other than the magnificent tech) is moving lower over the last month. Both stocks and bonds are repricing Trump. But Trump is like a box of chocolates – you don’t know you will get.

The zero visibility age

Ian McGugan (also in the Globe & Mail) frames why forecasts are likely to be wrong (again) in this zero visibility age …

The simple explanation for these forecasting failures is that the world has entered some very odd economic territory. Lingering effects of pandemic weirdness, manic exuberance around artificial intelligence and a surprising resurgence of strongman politics are helping to create a thick fog of uncertainty.

It’s a weird mix of optimism, fear and uncomfortable uncertainty that can make you make all kinds of strange (and uncomfortable screwed-up) expressions. Continue Reading…

7 Tips to Save on Health Insurance in 2025

Image courtesy Pexels: Leeloo The First

By Evan Tunis

Special to Financial Independence Hub

As healthcare costs continue to rise, finding ways to save on health insurance is becoming increasingly important.

In 2025, it is estimated that the average American family will spend over $25,000 a year on healthcare expenses.

This high cost not only affects individuals and families but also puts a strain on the overall economy.

 

Here are 7 tips to save on health insurance in 2025

Compare Plans

With the rise of online marketplaces, comparing health insurance plans has become easier than ever. Take the time to shop around and compare different plans from various providers. Consider factors such as premiums, deductibles, and coverage options before making your decision. You may find a plan that offers the same coverage for a lower cost.

Consider High-deductible Plans

High-deductible health plans (HDHPs) typically have lower premiums but higher deductibles. This means you will pay less each month for insurance, but will have to pay more out of pocket before your insurance kicks in. If you are generally healthy and do not require frequent medical care, an HDHP could save you money in the long run.

Utilize Preventive Care Services

Many health insurance plans cover preventive care services at no additional cost to the patient. Take advantage of these services — such as check-ups, screenings, and vaccinations — to catch any potential health issues early on and avoid expensive treatments in the future. Continue Reading…

Big Canadian Bank Earnings: Three ways to invest with ETFs

Here’s a look at the different ways investors can express a view on Canada’s banking sector via ETFs.

Getty Images courtesy BMO ETFs

 

By Skye Collyer

BMO Global Asset Management

(Sponsor Blog) 

The first week of December brought a flurry of earnings reports from Canada’s “Big Six” banks: Bank of Montreal (BMO), Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Scotiabank (BNS), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), and National Bank of Canada (NA).

The best way to describe the results? A “mixed bag.” For example, BMO missed earnings expectations and increased provisions for potential loan losses.

Meanwhile, CIBC reported a jump in Q4 profits year-over-year and raised its dividend, a move mirrored by NA and RBC. BNS posted a rise in Q4 profits but warned of headwinds from a slowing economy and decelerating loan growth.

The biggest disappointment came from TD, which fell 7% intraday after adjusted earnings took a hit from penalties tied to anti-money laundering violations in the U.S. and a cap on asset growth for its U.S. retail banking business1.

What’s the takeaway for investors? Short-term fortunes can vary dramatically among the Big Six, so unless you have expertise in this space and the time to stay on top of developments, stock picking might not be ideal.

Historically, Canadian banks as a group have delivered strong earnings and dividend growth, making them a more reliable bet for long-term investors.

Instead of zeroing in on individual names, you might consider investing in the entire industry through ETFs. Here are three ETF options, catering to different risk profiles2 and objectives.

BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF (ZEB)

The flagship ETF for investors looking to express a neutral, bullish view on Canada’s banks — without worrying about which one will outperform — is the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF (ZEB).

This ETF is a heavyweight in the space, with just shy of $4 billion in assets under management as of December 19, 2024, and it has been a staple for Canadian bank investors since its launch in October 20093.

It tracks the performance of the Solactive Equal Weight Canada Banks Index, which — as the name suggests — gives equal weight to all six banks regardless of their size. This approach is rebalanced periodically, introducing a natural “buy low, sell high” mechanic.

ZEB charges a 0.28% Management Expense Ratio (MER) and currently pays a 4.00% distribution yield4. What’s particularly attractive for income-focused investors is the monthly distribution schedule, compared to the quarterly payouts of individual bank stocks.

BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF (ZWB)

If you’re seeking higher cash flow and don’t mind capping some potential share price appreciation, the BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF (ZWB) could be an appealing alternative to ZEB.

ZWB holds the exact same six Canadian bank stocks as ZEB and is also well-capitalized, with $3.2 billion in assets under management as of Dec 19, 20245. However, it boasts a higher 6.67% distribution yield as of Dec 19, 2024. How does it achieve this? By employing a covered call strategy. Here’s how it works:

ZWB sells call options on the bank stocks it holds and receives premiums , which generate additional yield for the fund (with premiums taxed favourably at the capital gains rate).

In exchange, ZWB agrees to sell a stock at a set price (the strike price) if the stock’s market price exceeds that level by the option’s expiration. This caps the upside price appreciation of the shares over and above the selected strike price.

However, if the stocks stay flat or decline, ZWB keeps the premium and the underlying shares, adding a layer of enhanced yield while providing a volatility cushion.

While this strategy increases cash flow, it does come with trade-offs. Investors sacrifice some of their potential price gains for enhanced monthly cash flow. The fund charges a 0.71% MER as of June 30, 2023, reflecting the costs associated with managing the options. Read more about our covered call ETF methodology here.

BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF (ZBI)

Stocks aren’t the only way to invest in Canada’s banking sector. Banks also issue a variety of securities such as corporate bonds, preferred shares, and limited recourse capital notes (LRCNs).

LRCNs are hybrid securities that function like bonds but are designed to absorb losses in extreme scenarios, providing a layer of stability for the issuing bank.

These instruments often provide returns that are less correlated with bank stocks and typically come with lower volatility. However, accessing them as a retail investor can be challenging. That’s where the BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF (ZBI) comes in.

ZBI offers a convenient way to gain exposure to all these securities in a single ETF. As of Dec. 12, its portfolio is diversified as follows: 53.46% in corporate bonds, 26.61% in limited recourse capital notes, 10.83% in preferred stock, and 9.10% in non-viable contingent capital securities7.

Rated as low risk*, ZBI charges a 0.28% MER as of June 30th, 2023 and offers a 3.55% distribution yield as of December 19th, with monthly payouts. It’s an excellent way to complement common bank stocks with quasi-fixed-income exposure.

Want more insights on Canadian bank earnings?

Listen to our deep dive into the fourth quarter earnings from Canada’s Big Six, breaking down recent results and examining key economic variables. Listen here. Continue Reading…

The Fairway to Financial Freedom: Lessons from Golf for Building Wealth 

What can golf teach you about financial freedom? You’d be surprised… These lessons from the golf course will help you become a finance whizz. 

Pixabay

By Jordan Fuller

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Golf and personal finance share surprising similarities: both take precision, patience, and strategy to be successful. Just as golfers navigate challenging courses with a clear plan, approaching your financial journey with foresight and discipline is the best way to get the result you want. 

This article explores how lessons from golf — planning, mastering fundamentals, adaptability, and learning from mistakes —can guide us toward building wealth and achieving financial freedom. By aligning these principles with your financial goals, you can chart a course to lasting prosperity. 

Lesson 1: The Importance of Planning 

In golf, players develop a course strategy before teeing off, analyzing each hole to decide on club selection and shot placement. This preparation helps them to navigate challenges and optimize performance during the game. 

Similarly, in personal finance, setting long-term goals and crafting a detailed financial plan can set you up for success from the start. This approach helps you anticipate financial obstacles and make informed decisions, leading to a secure financial future. 

Lesson 2: Master your Basic Techniques 

In golf, a proper grip, stance, and swing form the foundation of a consistent game. The grip is the only connection to the club, influencing your control and power over the golf ball. A correct stance keeps you balanced and aligned, while a smooth swing leads to accurate shots. 

In personal finance, grasping core concepts like budgeting, saving, and investing early sets the stage for financial stability. Without these as a strong foundation, success will be much harder.  

  • Budgeting: Tracking income and expenses helps manage spending and achieve financial goals. 
  • Saving: Building an emergency fund and setting aside money for future needs provide a safety net and prepare for unforeseen expenses. 
  • Investing: Allocating funds to assets like stocks or bonds can grow wealth over time, leveraging the power of compound interest. 

Lesson 3: Adaptability 

In golf, each hole presents unique challenges — varying terrains, weather conditions, and obstacles — that require players to adjust their strategies on the go. This adaptability is a big part of success on the course. 

In personal finance, adapting to economic changes is just as important. Markets fluctuate due to things like inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. By diversifying your investment portfolio across different asset classes, you can manage risk and capitalize on opportunities in various market conditions. 

Lesson 4: Consistency over Spectacular 

In golf, consistently playing steady shots often leads to better scores than attempting risky, spectacular ones. This approach minimizes errors and builds up your confidence over time. 

When it comes to investing, steady, consistent contributions harness the power of compound interest, leading to much bigger accumulation of wealth. For example, investing $50 monthly in an S&P 500 ETF over 20 years can grow to approximately $43,700, showing how regular, modest investments can yield great returns. 

This strategy reduces exposure to market volatility and avoids the pitfalls of high-risk ventures. Both in golf and investing, a disciplined, consistent approach often outperforms the allure of high-risk, high-reward tactics. 

Lesson 5: Short Game Mastery 

In golf, excelling in your short game — putting and chipping — is a must if you want a good score. You can’t just rely on a powerful drive … It’s the smaller, less impressive moves that really count. 

Mastering short-game techniques allows golfers to recover from missed greens and avoid unnecessary strokes, directly influencing their final score. Don’t just stick to the golf mats on the driving range: spend time on the putting and chipping green too. Continue Reading…