General

Bonds are Back

Image from Outcome/Shutterstock

Guess who just got back today

Them wild-eyed boys that had been away

Haven’t changed, had much to say

But man, I still think them cats are crazy

 The boys are back in town, the boys are back in town

  • The Boys Are Back in Town, by Thin Lizzy 

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Government Bonds: The Gift That (Usually) Keeps on Giving

Historically, bonds have provided investors with two main benefits. Firstly, their yields have provided a reasonable, if unspectacular return. Secondly, they have offered diversification value, muting overall portfolio losses during bear markets. By owning high-quality bonds, you got paid for protecting your portfolio during times of market turmoil, which is akin to receiving (rather than paying) a premium for fire insurance: a remarkably sweet deal indeed!

However, these benefits have historically ranged from significant to nonexistent, depending on the investment environment. Given this fact, Investors should alter their bond exposure as conditions warrant, both in terms of their aggregate allocation to the asset class as well their bond portfolios’ exposures to changes in interest rates and credit conditions.

A Bear Market Sedative

As the following table illustrates, in five of the six equity bear markets before that of 2022, bonds provided investors with much needed gains, thereby mitigating the overall damage to their portfolios.

During the tech wreck of the early 2000s, a balanced portfolio that was 60% weighted in the S&P 500 and 40% weighted in 7–10-year U.S. Treasuries declined 16.41%, as compared to a fall of 42.46% for the all-stock portfolio. In the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009, the balanced portfolio lost 23.92% vs. a loss of 45.76% in equities.

The ZIRP Era and the Erosion of Bond Powers

During the GFC, central banks entered hyper-stimulus mode to stave off a collapse of the global financial system and avoid a worldwide depression. ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) stances became the norm for monetary authorities around the world, with rates remaining at historically low levels for the next 14 years.

Bonds eventually became a victim of their own success. Although stimulative policies were successful in making the great recession less severe than would have otherwise been the case, they also robbed bonds of their two key attributes. Firstly, high-quality bonds ceased to offer reasonable yields. Secondly, ultra low rates also limited the ability of bonds to provide capital gains during times of equity market turmoil, thereby hindering their diversification value.

In 2016, PIMCO Co-Founder and “Bond King” Bill Gross commented that to repeat the bond market’s 7.5% annualized return over the past 40 years, yields would have to drop to negative 17%:  the math just didn’t work!

A Clear Warning Sign

As the saying goes, “Hindsight is 20/20.” It is easy to understand what should have been done after an event has already happened, even if it was not obvious at the time. However, market behaviour during the Covid crash offered a clear warning that all was not well in bond land.

The following table compares countries by their pre-pandemic short-term rates and the returns of their 10-year government bonds during the subsequent bear market.

There is a near perfect relationship across countries in terms of where their short-term rates stood prior to the pandemic and the subsequent return of their 10-Year bonds.

  • In the countries that initially had relatively high short-term rates, such as the U.S. Canada, and Norway, 10-year bonds produced substantial gains and mitigated the damage caused by the vicious decline in stocks.
  • In countries that started with rates that were neither relatively high nor low, such as the UK and Australia, 10-year bonds provided some, albeit lower amounts of protection.
  • Lastly, in countries which started with the lowest rates, such as Sweden, Japan, Germany, and Switzerland, not only did government bonds fail to mitigate stock losses but actually declined.

Given the strong correlation between where pre-Covid rates stood in different countries and the subsequent ability of their bond markets to offset stock market losses, it was clear that there was little, if any, gas left in the tank in the post-Covid world of zero rates, leaving investors largely unprotected.

From Hedge to Texas Hedge

Post-Covid, not only did ultra-low rates obliterate the insurance value of bond holdings, but the unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus that had been injected into the global economy left bonds particularly vulnerable to capital losses. Against this backdrop, when the rubber of stimulus hit the road of inflation in early 2022, central banks were forced to raise rates at a clip not seen since the Volcker era of the 1980s, resulting in painful declines in bond prices. Continue Reading…

This Lunch is Free: Global Diversification with BMO All Equity ETF (Ticker: ZEQT)

By Sheldon Quan King, BMO Global Asset Management

(Sponsor Blog)

Diversification remains one of the most powerful portfolio construction tools available to investors—a principle first introduced by Harry Markowitz in the 1950s, who famously coined the phrase, “diversification is the only free lunch in investing.”1

At its core, diversification aims to maximize return for a given level of risk. This concept is the foundation behind BMO’s Asset Allocation ETFs, designed to provide investors with a globally diversified portfolio through a single, low-cost ETF. To deliver even greater value, BMO has recently reduced the management fee for some of its most popular Asset Allocation ETFs to just 0.15%.

The most important Decision

Asset allocation is widely recognized as the most critical determinant of long-term portfolio performance. The landmark research by Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) revealed that 90% of return variability can be attributed to the mix of asset classes within a portfolio: not market timing or individual security selection.

For investors seeking a disciplined, strategic asset allocation[i] ETF to meet a growth objective, BMO All Equity ETF (Ticker: ZEQT) is a compelling choice. With an asset mix of 100% equities and 0% fixed income, ZEQT provides global equity exposure for long-term growth, while maintaining its target asset mix with built-in rebalancing.

Target Asset Allocations 

   Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of May 30, 2025

Rethinking Global Diversification

Many global funds today are heavily concentrated in U.S. equities: given that a global benchmark, the MSCI World Index, allocates approximately 70% to the U.S. ZEQT offers a more balanced global allocation, reducing reliance on U.S. markets to 47%. Notably, ZEQT includes a 28% allocation to Canadian equities, appealing to investors looking to “buy Canada” amid geopolitical concerns such as trade tensions or tariff threats.

BMO Global Asset Management, as of April 30, 2025. The asset allocation is subject to change without notice.

 What’s inside: Key portfolio ingredients

The core building blocks of ZEQT are among the largest and most cost-effective ETFs in Canada. tracking well known indices like S&P and MSCI, to provide broad exposure to international markets:

  • BMO MSCI EAFE Index ETF – Ticker: ZEA (0.20% mgmt. fee): Covers developed equity markets outside North America, including Europe and Japan.
  • BMO MSCI Emerging Markets ETF – Ticker: ZEM (0.25% mgmt. fee): Adds growth potential from emerging market equities including India and Taiwan.BMO Global Asset Management, as of April 30, 2025. Investors only pay the mgmt fee at the ETF level of 0.15%, not the  underlying ETF mgmt fees of 0.20 and 0.25%.

To enhance U.S. market cap diversification and achieve more potential growth, ZEQT includes:

These ETFs apply a profitability screen, targeting higher-quality mid- and small-cap companies in the U.S. ZEQT also spans all major sectors, helping reduce risk as different sectors rotate in and out of favour through economic cycles.

Source: BMO Global Asset Management. The sector allocations are subject to change without notice. ZEQT sector allocation, as of June 2, 2025.

Bottom Line

For advisors who focus on delivering holistic wealth management — integrating tax, insurance, and estate planning — ZEQT offers a simple, scalable core portfolio solution for their practice. It allows advisors to efficiently manage client assets without sacrificing diversification,  transparency, or costs.

And for self-directed investors, ZEQT does all the heavy lifting. With global exposure, automatic rebalancing, and all-in-one simplicity, it truly represents a “set it and forget it” investment that is built for the long run.

Again, as of June 9, ZEQT alongside BMO’s  three other most popular asset allocation ETFs, management fees have been cut by three basis points to 0.15%: amongst the lowest in Canada.

* Effective after market close on June 6, 2025.

Footnotes

1 UBS, Diversification is the logical solution to an unpredictable future. January 10, 2025

Performance (%)

Fund Year-to-date 1-month 3-month 6-month 1-year 3-year 5-year 10-year Since inception
ZEQT 1.96 5.21 -1.37 1.01 14.77 13.92 10.82

Bloomberg, as of May 31, 2025. Inception date for ZEQT = January 24, 2022.

 

Definitions

[1]  Strategic Asset Allocation: a portfolio strategy where target allocations are set for various asset classes and then the portfolio is rebalanced periodically. The portfolio is rebalanced to the original allocations when they deviate significantly from the initial settings due to differing returns from the various assets.

Sheldon Quan King is Senior Product Manager for BMO Global Asset Management.  Sheldon has over 10+ years of industry experience and has spent the last 9 years growing BMO Global Asset Management’s suite of Mutual Funds and ETFs. Previously, on the ETF Institutional and Service team Sheldon and has also been a guest speaker at Canadian Universities delivering ETF education to students. His primary focus now is ETF product marketing at BMO ETFs by engaging stock exchanges, capital markets desks, index providers, and portfolio managers to grow BMO’s existing suite and and launch new ETFs. Sheldon graduated with a Bachelors Degree in Psychology from York University, and is a CFA Level 3 candidate. 

 Disclaimers:

This article is for informational or educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice or recommendations.

All investments involve risk. The value of an ETF can go down as well as up and you could lose money. The risk of an ETF is rated based on the volatility of the ETF’s returns using the standardized risk classification methodology mandated by the Canadian Securities Administrators. Historical volatility doesn’t tell you how volatile an ETF will be in the future. An ETF with a risk rating of “low” can still lose money. For more information about the risk rating and specific risks that can affect an ETF’s returns, see the BMO ETFs’ simplified prospectus. BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate.

Index returns do not reflect transactions costs or the deduction of other fees and expenses and it is not possible to invest directly in an Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZEA and ZEM or securities referred to herein are not sponsored, endorsed or promoted by MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”), and MSCI bears no liability with respect to ZEA or ZEM or securities or any index on which ZEA or ZEM or securities are based. The prospectus of the BMO ETFs contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship MSCI has with BMO Asset Management Inc. and any related BMO ETFs.

An S&P, Dow Jones, Standard & Poor or S&P index (the "Index"): the Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or its affiliates ("SPDJI"), and has been licensed for use by the Manager. S&P®, S&P 500®, US 500, The 500, iBoxx®, iTraxx® and CDX® are trademarks of S&P Global, Inc. or its affiliates ("S&P") and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"), and these trademarks have been licensed for use by SPDJI and sublicensed for certain purposes by the Manager. ZSP, ZMID and ZSML are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by SPDJI, Dow Jones, S&P, their respective affiliates, and none of such parties make any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product(s) nor do they have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of the Index.

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments in exchange traded funds. Please read the ETF Facts or simplified prospectus of the BMO ETFs before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Exchange traded funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO ETFs, please see the specific risks set out in the BMO ETF’s prospectus. BMO ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and/​or elimination.

BMO ETFs are managed by BMO Asset Management Inc., which is an investment fund manager and a portfolio manager, and a separate legal entity from Bank of Montreal.

This material is for information purposes only. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice to any party. Particular investments and/​or trading strategies should be evaluated and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.

The viewpoints expressed by the author represents their assessment of the markets at the time of publication. Those views are subject to change without notice at any time.

Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described in the most recent  prospectus.

“BMO (M-bar roundel symbol)” is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.

 

Financial Independence: While you’re still young enough to Enjoy it

Image by: Averie Woodard on Unsplash

By Jordan McCaleb

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Financial Independence (aka Findependence) is a dream many hope to achieve, the freedom to live the life you’ve always dreamed of, pursuing passions or simply choosing to work on your own terms. While these are all great reasons, what about achieving this earlier?

This article will explore key investment strategies and asset allocations to accelerate your path to early financial freedom, including the role of precious metals investments.

Traditional Investments & their Limits

It’s important to acknowledge that traditional investments (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and ETFs) will always be the building blocks when it comes to financial independence. 

However, when it comes to achieving Findependence earlier in life, traditional investments may have potential limitations and risks involved.

Potential Limitations and Risks:

  • Inflation: Inflation erodes the real value of your accumulated savings over time.
  • Market Volatility: Unpredictable swings and downturns can threaten your gains and potentially delay your FI (financial independence) timeline.
  • Economic Uncertainty: Geopolitical risks and unforeseen crises can increase risk and cause market corrections, impacting even the safest portfolio.

While traditional investments form a crucial base for any Findependence strategy, they may not be enough to achieve the resilience and growth required. Achieving financial independence early requires specific and powerful assets to drive your portfolio, providing a balance to your financial ecosystem.

Accelerating your FI Timeline: Beyond just Investing

Accelerating your Findependence timeline requires additional steps. A crucial part is increasing your savings rate, aiming for 50% to 75% of your income, creating a powerful snowball effect that reduces your time horizon. This pairs with increasing your income through career advancement, salary raises, or profitable side hustles.

Simultaneously, optimizing expenses and embracing a frugal lifestyle in areas like housing, transportation, and food can further boost investment growth over time. A key step is defining your (FI Number) typically 25 times your desired annual expenses ($50,000). This lifestyle-specific figure provides a clear target.

Diversifying for Resilience: Beyond the Basics

Beyond traditional investments and accelerating your timeline, diversification involves not just different stocks, but asset classes as well (equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives). Each behaves differently under various economic challenges. Diversifying across geographies and industries can protect against downturns in a market or sector.

A crucial concept to know is asset correlation: You want your assets to not run in the same direction. According to Stock Rover, this reduction in volatility can significantly impact overall returns. For example, a portfolio experiencing wild swings of +20% then -20% loses money, while reducing it to +10% then -10% swings leads to a healthier outcome. In essence, a low correlation portfolio better withstands economic turbulence.

Strategic Allocation: The Role of Precious Metals

When aiming for early Findependence, strategic alternative assets are crucial. Gold and silver stand out as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty due to their low correlation nature. Historical data from Investopedia reveals that while the S&P 500 dropped almost 10% (2007-2010) during the 2008 financial crisis, a 1971 gold investment significantly increased in value. Gold IRAs also offer tax advantages for those interested in physical metals. Continue Reading…

A Case Study in Applied EMH Testing

Has Trump’s Trade War and associated stock market manipulations altered the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

Image by Pexels: Alisia Kozik

By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I have long been interested in the interplay between politics and the stock market. We had a fascinating real world case study that played out in real time back in April.

Those who know me will likely know that I have long been a proponent of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which was put forward by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama as a means of explaining capital market behaviour. It comes in three forms: weak, semi-strong, and strong; each representing different levels of market efficiency.

The Weak form asserts that all past market prices and data are fully reflected in current stock prices. Therefore, technical analysis methods, which rely on historical data, are deemed useless as they cannot provide investors with a competitive edge. However, this form doesn’t deny the potential value of fundamental analysis.

The Semi-strong form extends beyond historical prices and suggests that all publicly available information is instantly priced into the market. This includes financial statements, news releases, economic indicators, and other public disclosures. Therefore, neither technical analysis nor fundamental analysis can yield superior returns consistently.

Finally, the Strong form asserts that all information, both public and private, is fully reflected in stock prices. Even insiders with privileged information cannot consistently achieve higher-than-average market returns. This form is criticized because it conflicts with securities regulations that prohibit insider trading.

While the EMH has faced criticisms and challenges, it remains a prominent theory in finance that has significant implications for investors and market participants. It has been both supported and challenged by various market phenomena. Here are some notable examples supporting EMH:

Random Walk Theory

Stock prices appear to follow a ‘random walk,’ meaning past prices do not predict future movements, something that is disclosed and disclaimed on every prospectus.

Index Fund Performance

Passive index funds often outperform actively managed funds, suggesting that markets efficiently price securities, especially once fees are taken into account.

Earnings Announcements

Stock prices quickly adjust to new earnings reports, reflecting the semi-strong form of EMH.

The obvious example that challenges EMH is the existence of stock market bubbles. Events like the Dot-Com Bubble and the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis show that prices can deviate significantly from intrinsic values and for prolonged periods of time. Such anomalies suggest that while markets are generally efficient, behavioural biases and structural factors can lead to inefficiencies, include macro-level mispricings. A well-known industry chestnut is that “markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Here’s where the story gets interesting …

Trump and Market Manipulation?

Donald Trump’s tariff reversal and social media post encouraging stock purchases just before the announcement has raised serious and credible accusations of market manipulation. When you know the market will move based on a Presidential post, telegraphing that move by encouraging supports to buy hours before it is announced is tantamount to insider trading.

Remember that the efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all available information, making it impossible to consistently achieve above-average returns through timing or insider knowledge. Continue Reading…

Mining Stocks that pay Dividends

Add to your long-term returns in the resource sector by investing in mining stocks that pay dividends

At TSI Network, we keep a sharp eye out for high-quality mining stocks that pay dividends.

Dividends are typically cash payouts that serve as a way companies share the wealth they’ve accumulated through operating the company. These payouts are drawn from earnings and cash flow and paid to the shareholders of the company. Typically, these dividends are paid quarterly, although they may be paid annually or even monthly.

Dividends can now contribute up to a third of your long-term investment returns, without even considering the tax-cutting effects of the dividend tax credit. In addition, dividends are far more reliable than capital gains. A stock that pays a $1 dividend this year will probably do the same next year. It may even increase its dividend payment.

Many investors buy gold stocks as a hedge against inflation, and some gold stocks pay dividends. But there are other mining stocks that also offer an inflation hedge: and on average pay higher dividends.

Copper stocks generally have higher dividend yields than gold stocks because they have steadier demand and more stable prices. As well, they’re usually much cheaper than gold stocks in relation to their earnings and cash flow. That means they potentially have less room to fall if markets in general fall. That’s also another way of saying that they can be less risky than gold.

Long term, copper should gain from rising demand and tighter supply. Major deposits are depleting, and environmental issues are holding back new mines.

Nutrien (symbol NTR on Toronto) is one of our favourite Canadian dividend-paying mining stocks. The company is the world’s largest producer of agricultural fertilizers, including mined potash. It took its current form on January 1, 2018, when Agrium Inc. (old symbol AGU) merged with rival Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (old symbol POT). The stock is well-suited to income-seeking investors. The company has increased its dividend by an average of 5.8% annually in the past five years. That dividend yields 3.4%.

 

What’s a mining stock?

Mining stocks are investments in companies that produce or explore for minerals, such as uranium, coal, molybdenum (which is used in steelmaking), copper, silver and gold.

Mining stocks can generally be broken up into two categories, majors and juniors. Majors are mining companies that have been in the mining business for many years and more often than not they operate on a global scale. Majors have proven methods for exploration and mining, and have consistent output year over year.

Junior mining stocks are mining companies that are new or have been in business for a decade or less. They are usually smaller companies and take on risky mining exploration. If a junior mining stock is successful at finding and mining, it can mean huge returns for investors.

 

4 ways you benefit when you invest in mining stocks that pay dividends

  1. Growth and income. The best dividend-paying stocks offer both capital-gain growth potential and regular income from dividend payments. In fact, dividends are likely to still be paid regardless of how quickly the price of the underlying stock rises.
  2. Dividends can grow. Stock prices rise and fall, so capital losses often follow capital gains, at least temporarily. Interest on a bond or GIC holds steady, at best. But top dividend paying stocks like to ratchet their dividends upward—hold them steady in a bad year, raise them in a good one. That also gives you a hedge against inflation. Continue Reading…