By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting
Special to Financial Independence Hub
While there is only one trading day left in 2024, it is clear that it is another year that fooled everyone. The year 2023 fooled economists and market prognosticators with U.S. stocks up over 26% in U.S. Dollars (and up more in Canadian Dollars). 2024 is shaping up as a carbon copy in performance and in big swing and miss predictions. Canadian stocks are looking to finish the year up over 20%. Good luck making predictions as we enter 2025: a zero visibility age. Trump economic ‘policy’ will likely shape the year. There’s just no tellin’ what will happen.
But before we move on to 2025, some Santa stock market rally housekeeping.
Here’s the history of Santa rallies from 2000 on Seeking Alpha.

As can be seen from the chart, a Santa rally has successfully occurred 18 times out of 24 in the 2000s. One year saw a flat performance, while five years saw a decline, including as recently as 2023.
But so far, Santa read the Trump economic policy and went back into Santa’s house to have a nice hot chocolate. Here’s the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP), more representative of broader market sentiment.

Or maybe Santa went inside for something a little stronger, perhaps a few hot totties.

And more holiday fun …

Did a rally start last Tuesday? Who knows. True, US and Canadian markets took a big hit down yesterday with the Dow down 418.5 points or 1% and Nasdaq fell 1.2% (Monday, Dec. 30th). But it doesn’t really matter it’s obvious that 2024 was a wonderful year for investors who stayed the course, stayed invested; for investors who stuck to their investment plan. The final returns for stock markets will simply be statistics for the record books.
Trumpenomics and 2025
In the Globe & Mail John Rapley did a nice summary of the battle between the Fed, bond markets and Donald Trump’s economic ‘policy’. I put policy in quotes because the incoming U.S. President’s platform is currently more threats than anything else.
Here’s a key paragraph …
But it now looks like the Fed may be girding for a battle with the administration, with some governors hinting that they’re beginning to factor the inflationary impact of his policies into their own projections. If they decide to counterbalance a loose fiscal policy with a tight monetary one, the economic prognosis may well change.
Translation: proposed Trump tax cuts and looser regulations will battle with inflationary tariffs and deportations. Add in crippling U.S. debts and deficits. The bond market has been moving rates higher. The stock market (other than the magnificent tech) is moving lower over the last month. Both stocks and bonds are repricing Trump. But Trump is like a box of chocolates – you don’t know you will get.
The zero visibility age
Ian McGugan (also in the Globe & Mail) frames why forecasts are likely to be wrong (again) in this zero visibility age …
The simple explanation for these forecasting failures is that the world has entered some very odd economic territory. Lingering effects of pandemic weirdness, manic exuberance around artificial intelligence and a surprising resurgence of strongman politics are helping to create a thick fog of uncertainty.
It’s a weird mix of optimism, fear and uncomfortable uncertainty that can make you make all kinds of strange (and uncomfortable screwed-up) expressions. Continue Reading…






