Inflation

Staying Financially Resilient: Investment Protection tips for Canadians

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | June 24, 2025

By Graham Priest

Special to Financial Independence Hub

As the second half of 2025 unfolds, many Canadians are grappling with economic uncertainty. Headlines about slowing growth, persistent inflation, and global trade tensions may have many wondering whether their portfolio is ready for what’s next. While economists debate whether Canada is teetering on the edge of a recession or not, the real concern for investors is ensuring their financial future remains secure. Here are some items to consider to help protect your investments during turbulent times.

Understand the Economic Landscape

Economic indicators suggest Canada’s economy is under strain. The Bank of Canada has maintained elevated interest rates to curb inflation, which — while cooling — remains a concern at around 2.5% in mid-2025. This has slowed consumer spending, impacting sectors like retail and manufacturing. The S&P/TSX Composite Index — heavily weighted toward financials, energy, and materials — has seen volatility, with energy stocks particularly vulnerable due to fluctuating oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. A potential recession could further pressure corporate profits, leading to declines in stock prices, especially in cyclical industries.

Diversify to reduce Risk

Diversification remains the key to maintaining a resilient portfolio. Spreading investments across asset classes — such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and even alternative assets like gold or infrastructure — can cushion against market swings. For instance, while equities may falter in a downturn, government bonds or fixed-income securities often provide stability. Within stocks, consider balancing exposure between cyclical sectors (e.g., consumer discretionary) and defensive ones (e.g., utilities or healthcare). Geographic diversification is also key, as international markets, particularly in the U.S. or emerging economies, can offset domestic weaknesses.

Avoid emotional decisions

Market dips can test even the steadiest investor. Panic-selling during a downturn often locks in losses and derails long-term goals. Historical data shows that markets recover over time. For example, after the 2008 financial crisis, the TSX rebounded significantly within a few years. Staying focused on your investment horizon — whether it’s retirement in 20 years or a home purchase in five — helps avoid knee-jerk reactions. Regular portfolio rebalancing ensures your asset mix aligns with your risk tolerance and objectives.

Leverage professional Advice

If you are feeling uncertain about the current economic environment and how it may impact your portfolio, now is an ideal time to consult an Investment Advisor. A professional can assess whether your portfolio is positioned to weather volatility and aligns with your financial goals. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: An online Canadian Retirement Club

Posted By Jonathan Chevreau | June 20, 2025

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a recently launched Retirement Club devoted to Canadians in or near the cusp of Retirement.

Primarily online, Retirement Club was launched by occasional MoneySense contributor Dale Roberts and a partner, Brent Schmidt. You can find the full MoneySense column by clicking on the highlighted headline: Retirement planning advice for people who don’t use an advisor.

Roberts, who once was an advisor for Tangerine, is known for his Cutthecrapinvesting blog and in the U.S. for his contributions to Seeking Alpha. While I have no financial or business interest in the club I did become a member. There are regular Zoom calls where (mostly) recent retirees exchange views on topics like the 4% Rule, RRSP-to-RRIF conversions, ETFs, Asset Allocation in the age of Trump 2.0 and many of the topics this Retired Money column often attempts to tackle.

You can find Roberts’ own announcement of the club – which charges an annual fee of $250 – on my own site earlier in mid-April. (+HST, but it may qualify as an Investment Counsel fee deductible on your personal tax returns). As always check with your accountant, advisor or tax professional).

My initial impression is that the club seems to involve a lot of work for someone who describes himself as semi-retired. But that seems to be par for the course for financial writers approaching retirement. I’m in a similar boat, as is the American blogger Fritz Gilbert, who recently announced the similarly ironic fact that he was retiring from Full-time Blogging about Retirement. (also in April).

Aimed at self-directed investors

In his introduction, Roberts wrote that many of his audience are self-directed investors. That jibes with his site’s campaign against high-fee investment funds, in favor of low-cost index funds or ETFs purchased at discount brokerages. While some, like myself, may also use the services of a fee-for-service advisor, many DIY retirees are in effect running their own pension plans. In theory, one of those much-written-about All-in-one Asset Allocation ETFs can do much of the heavy lifting for such investors, but in practice, there’s a fair bit of anxiety about markets, the Canadian government’s rules about TFSAs, RRIFs etc., Asset Allocation, the ongoing Trump Trade War and much more. So it makes sense to gather in one place and exchange views with others going through a similar process.

In a regular email update to Club members, Roberts explains that “the key concern of Retirement Clubbers is financial security and how to use their portfolio assets in the most efficient and cost-effective manner. That’s why we have a master list of retirement calculators (free and pay-for-service) to test.”

Delaying Government Pensions

As you’d expect, the Club regularly addresses the major chestnuts of Personal Finance as it relates to those within hailing distance of Retirement. The most common ‘Retirement Hack’ espoused by the Club is to delay receipt of the Canada Pension Plan [CPP] and Old Age Security [OAS] past the traditional retirement age of 65 to allow for more generous payouts at age 70. Most club members lean to taking these benefits as late as possible but of course personal circumstances may dictate earlier start dates.

To bridge the income gap (from age 60 to 70 for example) RRSP/RRIF accounts will be harvested (spent) in quick fashion: often termed an RRSP meltdown. TFSA and Taxable accounts can also be tapped to provide necessary funding as retirees delay receipt of those CPP and OAS benefits. Continue Reading…

Canadian Utility ETFs offer Lower Risk and tax-advantaged dividends

Posted By Pat McKeough | June 10, 2025

Utility investments typically benefit from stronger economic activity, and a top Canadian utilities ETF will let you take advantage of this: if you watch for low fees and sound stock holdings

Utility stocks are shares in companies that provide electric power, telecommunications, pipeline services and so on. Canadian utility shares have always been great sources of tax-advantaged distribution income.

While most utility stocks are steady income producers, some utilities also offer opportunities for growth. This happens mostly when utilities expand into new markets or geographic regions.

We still feel that investors will profit the most with a well-balanced portfolio of high-quality individual stocks, but ETFs can also play a role in a portfolio.

Holding utilities, or a Canadian utilities ETF, can be a sound component of most investor portfolios.

What kind of companies are included in Canadian utilities ETFs?

Canadian utilities ETFs typically include companies from several sectors, such as electric utilities providing power generation and distribution, natural gas utilities, water utilities, telecommunications companies, and pipeline operators that transport energy resources.

What are the risks of investing in Canadian utilities ETFs?

The main risks of investing in Canadian utilities ETFs include regulatory changes that could affect utility companies’ profitability, interest rate sensitivity that can cause price drops when rates rise, and concentration risk if the ETF is heavily weighted toward a few companies or specific utility subsectors.

Characteristics of the best utility investments

The best utility stocks, or ETFs that hold them, can deliver predictable, lower-risk dividends.

Traditionally, the utilities sector is said to suffer when interest rates rise: or if the market is worried about a rise.

This is because utilities typically have a lot of debt as part of their capital structure, and higher rates make it more expensive to raise money and refinance existing debt. As well, their shares, which typically offer high yields, compete with fixed-income instruments for investor interest.

However, higher interest rates are usually accompanied by increased economic activity and growth. That stronger economic activity is good for utilities: It pushes up demand for their power and so on and at the same time boosts the electricity rates they charge their customers.

Regardless of those positives, as interest rates rise, investors often sell off, or avoid, utilities stocks, and that can push down their price. Given the formula for dividend yield — specifically, annual dividend rate/stock price — a falling stock price (the bottom number in the fraction) pushes up the yield. In other words, when the stock price goes down, its dividend yield goes up.

How are Canadian utilities ETFs structured?

Canadian utilities ETFs are typically structured to track specific indexes using different weighting methodologies, with equal-weight and market-cap approaches being the most common.

When looking for investments in the utility sector, investors should avoid judging a company based solely on its dividend yield. That’s because a high yield can sometimes be a danger sign rather than a bargain. For example, a company’s dividend yield could be high simply due to its share price having dropped sharply (because you use a company’s share price to calculate yield). That low price can be a sign of an imminent dividend cut.

Apart from a good dividend yield, the utility stocks you invest in should have a long history of paying (and raising) their dividends. For a true measure of stability, focus on those companies that have maintained or raised their dividends during economic and stock-market downturns.

Are Canadian utilities ETFs a good investment for stability and income?

Canadian utilities ETFs typically provide stable income through consistent dividends and lower volatility compared to broader market investments, making them generally suitable for investors seeking stability and regular cash flow.

The best ETFs are focused on simple goals. Instead of picking and trading investments, operators of these ETFs manage investors’ money “passively,” with the goal of duplicating the performance of a market index. This lets the operator charge very low MERs (management expense ratios) compared to an average MER on conventional mutual funds of 2%-3%. Continue Reading…

The TACO Trade betrays deeper problems

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | June 4, 2025

By Alain Guillot

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Wall Street has been on a wild ride in recent months, and the cause isn’t some unknown geopolitical threat or economic collapse: it’s the unpredictable tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

In response to Trump’s repeated habit of threatening tariffs only to later walk them back, traders have coined a new acronym: TACO, short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The term, first popularized by Financial Timescolumnist Robert Armstrong, has become a strategy among investors: when Trump threatens tariffs, markets drop: but savvy traders anticipate a retreat and buy the dip, profiting from the inevitable rebound.

Trump, for his part, is not pleased with the nickname. In a recent Oval Office appearance, he rejected the idea that his constant backtracking reflects weakness, calling it a negotiation strategy. According to him, he often starts with an exaggerated number (such as a 145% tariff on Chinese goods) and then drops it during talks with foreign governments to create leverage.

Let’s be clear: negotiation is part of diplomacy and trade. But weaponizing tariffs in this on-again, off-again manner creates unnecessary chaos in global markets and harms businesses and consumers who are left guessing about what prices they will face or what products will become harder to obtain.

Why I don’t think Tariffs are a good tool for Prosperity

As a personal finance blogger and former financial advisor, I believe strongly in policies that promote long-term stability and broad-based prosperity. Tariffs, in theory, are designed to protect domestic industries from unfair foreign competition. But in practice — especially when used impulsively and inconsistently like we’ve seen under Trump — they often backfire.

Here’s why I personally don’t think tariffs are a great tool for building prosperity:

They raise prices for consumers. When tariffs are imposed, companies pass the extra cost down the line. That means your groceries, electronics, and clothing become more expensive: not because the market demands it, but because politicians created artificial barriers.
They create uncertainty. Markets hate unpredictability. Business owners delay hiring and investments. Global supply chains get disrupted. Investors pull back. And this doesn’t just hurt “Wall Street”: it hurts jobs, wages, and retirement portfolios. Continue Reading…

Taking on Tariffs with Defensive Stocks & Sector ETFs

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | June 3, 2025

By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The year 2025 offered the third bear market for U.S. stocks in the last 6 years. That is surprising in itself. Canadian stocks didn’t go into a bear market but they did fall by near 13%. The good news for readers of this blog is that Canadian defensive stocks rose to the occasion. South of the border defensive sector equities were even more robust. Defensive stocks take on tariffs, on the Sunday Reads.

There’s more than one way to manage risk. Within a balanced portfolio the most common strategy is to use bonds to manage stock market risk and volatilty. We might then turn to gold that makes the balanced portfolio better. I also like using defensive equities, working in concert with bonds, cash and gold.

2025 Total Returns (through May):

Gold $GLD: +25% Developed International $VEA: +17% Canadian $XIC :+7.1% Silver $SLV: +14% Bitcoin $IBIT: +12% EM $IEMG: +9% US Bonds $AGG: +3% Cash $BIL: +2% Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +2% REITs $VNQ: +1% S&P $SPY: +1% US Dollar $UUP: -7% Small Caps $IWM: -7% Oil $USO: -11%

Defensive sectors for retirement.

That’s a common theme or discussion in our Retirement Club for Canadians.

Let’s take a look at Canadian defensive stocks during the tariff-inspired bear market. The worst decline in 2025 for Canadian equities was January 30th to April 8th. The TSX Composite fell 12.9%.

From the beginning of the tariff tantrum to end of April …

Stock market down, defensives up – nice! 🙂

Consumer staples (XST-T) up 12.1%
Utilities (ZUT-T) up 11.1%

And be sure to check out this post – investing in Canadian utility stocks and ETFs.

Defensive sectors in the U.S.

If we look to U.S. stocks for the first quarter …

The U.S. defensive sectors all rose to the occasion. IVV = S&P 500.

Consumer staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Healthcare (XLV). Keep in mind, these are U.S. Dollar ETFs for U.S. dollar accounts. The most favourable tax treatment will be offered in your RRSP and Taxable accounts.

The defensive equities strategy has worked out wonderfully on both sides of the border.

Here’s the models in a retirement funding scenario from February through to the end of April. We start with $1,000,000 and spend at 4.8% of the portfolio value = $4,000 per month.