Doze off on the currency markets if you choose, but don’t come crying to us if you fall out of bed because the euro wakes you with a bang.

You can be forgiven for taking your eyes off EUR/CAD lately, with all the urgent drama in Q4. But the euro may jolt you awake—trading ranges are meant to be broken (see figure 1).

Figure 1: EUR vs. CAD

Street Consensus

Wall Street doesn’t publish many EUR versus CAD forecasts. But there is plenty on both currencies relative to the USD. Fortunately, if you know Street consensus on currency A vs. B and A vs. C, you can back into the strategists’ views of B vs. C.

Let’s do that.

Figure 2 shows the 15 most recently published forecasts for CAD and EUR vs. USD, with the arithmetic for EUR vs. CAD. Sentiment on this pair is mixed, with the median and average forecast coming in 2 cents off of the spot rate. Continue Reading…