Tag Archives: interest rates

Is the Fixed Income Market buying what the Fed is Selling?

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | July 27, 2017

Fed’s Balance Sheet Normalization Guidelines (in billions)

By Kevin Flanagan , WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In the post-Federal Reserve (Fed)-meeting world of the money and bond markets, there seems to be a disconnect between what market participants are thinking and the Fed policy decisions actually being made. It is a case of the market not buying what the Fed is selling.

In other words, the term “policy mistake” has begun to enter the discussion, as the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena appears to be operating under the assumption that the Fed should perhaps ease up on its tightening campaign because

(a) inflation has been slowing in recent months, and

(b) economic growth has been lackluster. This line of reasoning concludes that the policy makers will go too far with their rate hike and balance sheet normalization plans, to the detriment of the economic setting.

Based on the Fed’s actions at the June FOMC meeting, the policy makers do not seem to be deterred in their “full steam ahead” outlook, as they envision yet another rate hike this year and expect “to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year” as well. (On Wednesday, July 27, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged — Editor.)

So, let’s assume economic and financial conditions do live up to the Fed’s expectations, what then will their plan look like for phasing out their reinvestment program.

Bonds: Ain’t no cure for the summertime blues

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | July 21, 2017

By Kevin Flanagan , WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Since Election Day, the focus in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been essentially domestic-driven. In other words, market participants have been setting their sights on potential fiscal policy developments and, of course, the latest actions from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, as the calendar turned to summer, investors were greeted with a new twist for Treasuries: more-hawkish-than-expected rhetoric coming from other developed markets’ central banks, elevating global bond yields in the process. The question that lies ahead on the rate front is whether words become deeds; if so, the fixed income arena could be in for a case of summertime blues.

Two of the more noteworthy developments from the global central bank perspective involved the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BOC), each occurring in just the last few weeks. The genesis was at an ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, where President Draghi made remarks that the bond market viewed as being on the hawkish side.

Although the ECB tried to walk back the comments, stating they were misinterpreted, the damage was done, and yields nevertheless finished higher. Interestingly, the FOMC minutes released early in July were a nonevent, but the ECB minutes were a different story, as the headlines stated that policy makers “discussed removing the easing biases in their policy communication,” specifically on their Quantitative Easing (QE) program. These news events were accompanied by earlier comments from BOC president Poloz that intimated that Canadian policy makers may be considering a rate hike at one of their upcoming meetings.

Unexpected shift in tone

Needless to say, the shift in tone was not expected in the global bond markets. Continue Reading…

U.S. Corporate Bonds: Taking all the credit

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | June 8, 2017

Investment-Grade Spread (RS) vs. High-Yield Spread (LS)

By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Without a doubt, one of the better-performing sectors in the fixed-income arena over the last year or so has been the U.S. corporate bond market. Indeed, both the high-yield (HY) and investment-grade (IG) asset classes have enjoyed visibly positive returns both in 2016 and thus far in 2017, with HY registering specifically robust readings. Against this backdrop, questions have surfaced as to whether these types of performance can be sustained for the remainder of 2017.

And here we are, roughly five months into the calendar, and the question remains: Can the U.S. corporate bond market continue to produce positive outcomes? Oftentimes, market participants tend to focus on more recent trends, and in the process apply their findings to determine whether an asset could be overbought or oversold. In order to put recent developments in U.S. corporates into some perspective, we thought it would be a useful exercise to take a look at how HY and IG spreads have fared over a longer period (See chart at the top of this blog.)

So, where exactly are U.S. corporate bond spreads? According to the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Corporate Index, IG spreads have narrowed by 10 basis points (bps) since the end of the year, and stood at 113 bps as of this writing. This is the lowest level since the latter half of 2014. On the HY front, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index shows the spread at 376 bps, a decline of 33 bps from the year-end 2016 tally, and also resides at levels last seen almost three years ago.

A slightly more dramatic way of looking at the current readings is to focus on how much these spreads have come in since the recent high watermarks were posted in February of last year. From this key risk-off period, IG spreads have declined by more than 100 bps, and an eye-popping 463 bps for HY. It is this combination of recent spread-narrowing and current levels that has prompted the aforementioned questions.

Some historical perspective

This is where some historical perspective is in order, specifically: Have we entered uncharted territory? Continue Reading…

Do global bond yields matter any more?

Posted By Financial Independence Hub | May 2, 2017

By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Do global bond yields matter anymore? Following the results of Election Day and the subsequent response in the U.S. bond market, this was certainly a valid question. Indeed, with U.S. Treasury (UST) yields ascending rather visibly, a key investment force (relative yield advantage vs. the rest of the G7 universe) that had helped keep UST yields in check, if not push them even lower, seemed to fall off the fixed-income radar.

With the first quarter of 2017 now in the books, and the markets almost five months removed from the U.S. election, we thought it would be useful to provide some insight as to where the UST 10-Year yield resides now, and consider whether the relative yield advantage still exists.

While it has not always been a one-way street to the upside, G7 10-year yields have all risen to varying degrees, with the one notable exception being the UK, where gilts have actually seen a decline of 6 basis points (bps) since November 7. Italian 10-year yields fall on the other end of the spectrum, as the 10-year has experienced an increase of 61 bps, while the gain in France has been pegged at 50 bps. To put this in some additional perspective, the rise in the UST 10-Year was +56 bps. Rounding out the 10-year yield tallies: Canada +41 bps; Germany +18 bps and Japan +12 bps.

It should also be noted that the experience thus far in 2017 seems to have been a bit more country/region specific and not just the kind of broader move in global rates that investors have witnessed before. To be sure, here in the U.S., Treasury yields have been responding to developments in Washington D.C., such as the Fed pushing up its first rate hike three months earlier than expected and continued political headlines in the first few months of the Trump administration.

The Long & Short of it: Long vs. Short-term Mortgages

Posted By Robb Engen | May 1, 2017

Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. No doubt you’ve heard this line if you’ve bought a home or had to renew your mortgage at some point in the past decade, followed by an eager banker or mortgage broker urging you to “lock in” now.

Most homeowners in Canada prefer fixed-rate terms for predictability and peace of mind, with five-year terms being the most popular.

Yet despite its popularity, the five-year fixed rate is likely the least advantageous term for borrowers.

Going Long: 10-Year Mortgage Term

For those looking for greater protection against (eventual) rising interest rates, a longer term is worth a look. A 10-year fixed rate mortgage today can be had for as low as 3.69 per cent.

Another reason to consider a longer mortgage term: a safeguard against the possibility of a housing crash. What happens if prices fall 20 per cent or more in the next few years, wiping away your home equity before it’s time to renew? A 10-year term, while more expensive than a shorter term, does offer a double-dose of protection in case prices fall or interest rates rise substantially. Continue Reading…

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