Tag Archives: retirement income

Thinking about retirement? Here are 2 two key income sources to expect

By Scott Ronalds

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If you’re at the point where you’re starting to think seriously about retirement, you’re probably wondering how much money you’re going to need to enjoy life after work, and where it’s going to come from.

Everybody’s wants and needs are different, so there’s no magic number as to how much you should have saved by a certain age. Plus, the face of retirement has changed significantly, with many people working part-time into their seventies and eighties, and others hanging it up in their fifties.

That said, by making a few assumptions, we can give you a rough estimate of what you can expect from government sources and your portfolio when you decide to retire.

The basics

To keep it simple, we’ll use a scenario which assumes you’re 65 and plan to fully retire from your job this year. A few other assumptions:

  • You don’t have a pension plan with your employer.
  • You’re eligible for full Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and Old Age Security (OAS) benefits.
  • You have an RSP that you plan to convert to a RIF this year, and you plan to take the minimum required payments (which will start next year) from your account. (Note: you aren’t required to convert your RSP to a RIF until the calendar year you turn 71, but you can convert at any age before 71 if you choose).
  • You don’t have any other investments or sources of income.

First off, let’s look at what you’ll get from the government. You can expect monthly CPP payments of roughly $1,114 ($13,370/year) and OAS payments of about $578 ($6,936/year). In total, you can plan on collecting about $1,690 a month, or just over $20,000 a year. These amounts are indexed to inflation. You can decide to defer taking CPP benefits until you’re older, or take them earlier, in which case your benefits will be increased or decreased, respectively. You can also defer taking OAS to receive a larger monthly benefit.

More than likely, this isn’t going to cover your living expenses or fund the lifestyle you want in retirement. So you’re going to need to rely on your portfolio to cover the shortfall.

RIFing it

Converting your RSP to a RIF means your minimum withdrawal next year will be equivalent to 4.0% of your portfolio’s year-end market value. This figure is based on your age, 65, at the end of the current calendar year. Continue Reading…

The 4 Percent Rule: Is there a new normal for Canadian retirees?

By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Those two questions are certainly related, or let’s say one can determine the other. If you can earn a 7 percent annual return from your investments that will generate much more income compared to investments that only earn a 1 percent return. A $500,000 portfolio generating that 7 percent return could pay out $35,000 per year and maintain the original portfolio balance. You get ‘paid’ that $35,000 and you still have your initial $500,000.

A 1 percent return on your portfolio will only deliver $5,000 per year. Of course you could simply take out the $35,000 per year from your lower yielding portfolio, but over time the money will disappear.

So how much can you ‘safely’ take out of your retirement investment portfolio?

The financial gurus would suggest that spending 7 percent of your portfolio is much too aggressive. The gold standard retirement studies suggest that you can take out 4 percent – 4.5 percent of your portfolio value, inflation adjusted (2-3 percent annual increase in spending) and you will have a high probability of success over a 30 year period. You are creating perpetual income, just as would a pension. In fact, if your investments are positioned sensibly you are mimicking a pension – you are creating your own pension.

It’s an industry standard so much so that they call it – The 4 Percent Rule. 

The 4 Percent Rule: A Safe Withdrawal Rate in Retirement

The 4 percent rule is based on the work of Bill Bengen. The rule has been challenged and studied perhaps more than any other research in the retirement landscape. Mr. Bengen also took another look and challenged his own 4 percent rule in this 2012 article for Financial Advisor Magazine, How Much is Enough? 

Here’s the final thought from Mr. Bengen in that article. While there are no guarantees in life, and in investing, the rule of thumb has held up.

In summary, the 4.5 percent rule (and its infinite variations for time horizon, tax bracket, current market valuations, etc.) may be challenged in coming years. However, it appears to be working now.

The sensible retirement portfolio (pension) will typically consist of two components, a growth component (stocks) and a risk reducing agent (bonds). Durable income is created from enough growth in the stocks in a lower risk or lower volatility arrangement. Investing can be quite simple, even in the more ‘complicated’ retirement funding stage. Once again, we’re back to that simple mix of stocks and bonds. As always, we want to keep our fees as low as possible. This is no time to be paying ‘others’.

But is that 4 percent rule dead? Many think so. The reason for that is that the bond component of the portfolio, well, it kinda stinks these days. Or at least the yield or income from the bonds is nothing to write home about.

Challenges with the 4 Per cent Rule

Go back a couple of decades and your basic lower risk investment grades bonds would pay retirees 6-7 percent. The bonds on their own were enough to create durable income in a lower risk environment. Retirees did not need to take on much or any stock market risk. These days it might be difficult to generate more than 3 percent from your bond component. The yield on Canadian Bond Universe Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) XBB from iShares is 3.18 percent.

Yields have started to creep up over the last year, but they are still historically low. And bond yields can stay low. They do not have to go up just because they are down. Bond yields can and have in the past stayed very low for decades. We should always keep in mind that we do not know where bonds will go over time, just as we do not know where stock markets will go over the near term. Continue Reading…

Is typical retirement advice good? – Testing popular Retirement rules of thumb

Special to the Financial Independence Hub 

You want to retire soon. How should you set up your retirement income?

You talk with some friends, read about it on the internet, and talk with a financial advisor. Are you actually getting good advice?

When it comes to retirement income, most financial advisors rely on a few rules of thumb handed down from one generation of advisors to the next. The rules appear to be common sense and are usually accepted without question.

Do these rules of thumb actually work?

Before giving clients this advice, I tested them with 150 years’ history of stocks, bonds and inflation. I wanted to see if these rules were reliable for a typical 30-year retirement. (The average retirement age is 62. In 50% of couples that reach their 60s, one of them makes it to age 92.) 

These five rules are the “conventional wisdom” – the advice typically given to seniors:

  1. 4% Rule”: You can safely withdraw 4% of your investments and increase it by inflation for the rest of your life. For example, $40,000 per year from a $1 million portfolio.
  2. “Age Rule”: Your age is the percentage of bonds you should have. For example, at age 70, you should have 70% in bonds and 30% in stocks.
  3. “Sequence of returns”: Invest conservatively because you can’t afford to take a loss. You can run out of money because of the “sequence of returns.” You can’t recover from investment losses early in your retirement.
  4. Don’t touch your principal. Try to live off the interest.
  5. Cash buffer: Keep cash equal to 2 years’ income to draw on when your investments are down.

The results: NONE of these rules of thumb are reliable, based on history.

Let’s look at each to understand this.

1.) “4% Rule”: Can you safely withdraw 4% of your investments plus inflation for the rest of your life?

Based on history, the “4% Rule” was safe for equity-focused investors, but not for most seniors.

In the results shown in the graphic at the top of this blog, the blue line is the “4% Rule,” showing how often in the last 150 years a 4% withdrawal plus inflation provided a reliable income for 30 years.

The “4% Rule” only works with at least 50% in stocks.

The “4% Rule” worked only if you invest with a minimum of 50% in stocks. Even safer is 70-100% in stocks. It is best to avoid a success rate below 95% or 97%. They mean a 1 in 20 or 1 in 30 chance of running out of money during your retirement.

Most seniors invest more conservatively than this and the 4% Rule failed miserably for them.

A “3% Rule” has been reliable in history, but means you only get $30,000 per year plus inflation from a $1 million portfolio, instead of $40,000 per year.

These results are counter-intuitive. The more you invest in stocks, the safer your retirement income would have been in history.

To understand this, it is important to understand that stocks are risky short-term, but reliable long-term. Bonds are reliable short-term, but risky long-term. Why? Bonds get killed by inflation or rising interest rates. If either happens during your retirement, you can easily run out of money with bonds.

The chart below illustrates this clearly. It shows the standard deviation (measure of risk) of stocks, bonds and cash over various time periods in the last 200 years. Note that stocks are much riskier short-term, but actually lower risk for periods of time longer than 20 years.

Stocks are more reliable after inflation than bonds after 20 years.

Ed’s advice: Replace the “4% Rule” with “2.5% +.2% for every 10% in stocks Rule.”  For example, with 10% in stocks, use a “2.7% Rule.” If you invest 70% or more in stocks, then the “4% Rule is safe.

2.) “Age Rule”: Your age is the percentage of bonds you should have. For example, at age 70, you should have 70% in bonds and 30% in stocks.

Continue Reading…

Generating Retirement cash flow from your Investments

Here are some strategies for getting cash flow from your retirement portfolio:

1.) Income only

This option is popular with retirees who want to maintain the value of their assets. Using this strategy, the retiree subsists on whatever income their bond and stock holdings generate.

Pros: As it doesn’t involve tapping into principal, this approach provides some insurance that a retiree won’t outlive assets. Investors tend to be more relaxed with short-term market volatility while receiving regular payouts.

Cons: Days are long gone where you could buy GICs and bonds yielding a safe 10 or 12%. Retirees in the 1990s were dismayed to see the interest on renewals drop from double-digit to mid-single digit rates, and now you may not get much more than 2%.

More investors are leaning towards dividend-paying stocks. A basket of dividend-paying stocks might generate 3% or 4% without taking on too much risk. Given these current low returns, the securities in a portfolio may have trouble generating a livable yield. Depending on your income requirements, you’ll likely need quite a large amount of invested capital to generate the income you desire.

Related: Why Living Off The Dividends No Longer Appeals To Me

Be careful when hunting for yield. Dividends are not guaranteed. Changes to a company’s dividend policy could occasionally result in payouts being reduced or eliminated altogether.

In reality, most investors will need to dip into their principal anyway to meet unexpected large expenses.

2.) Total return strategy

Here, retirees reinvest all income, dividends and capital gains back into their holdings at their target allocation after taking the amount they need for annual living expenses.

Pros: By rebalancing, it forces the investor to sell appreciated assets on a regular basis while leaving underperforming assets in place, or adding to them.

Cons: If there is a prolonged market downturn, withdrawals can drastically erode capital and reduce future return potential. That argues for holding a comfortable cushion of at least 3 –5 years worth of living expenses in liquid form – cash or cash alternatives. Continue Reading…

Creating retirement income: a Fixed Payment Strategy

Once you stop working you may want to simplify your investment strategy. Your objective shifts from growing your investment portfolio to generating income. Flat and unpredictable markets, combined with historically low interest rates, can make this a challenging time in terms of creating retirement income.

One idea for creating a reasonably consistent level of monthly income is with a Monthly Income Fund. These funds have been around for quite some time. They hold a variety of government, municipal and corporate bonds, preferred shares and dividend stocks, and the payments come from a combination of interest and dividends, and sometimes, return of capital.

With these investments, cash flow is based on the number of units you own, not on the market value of the assets.

In non-registered accounts, the distributions can be more tax efficient than interest earned on GICs and bonds. However, keep in mind that there can also be taxable distributions in December (just as in other mutual funds) in addition to the monthly payout amounts.

Comparison of monthly income funds

Monthly income funds are sold by Canadian banks and mutual fund companies, and are also available in ETF versions.

The following chart is a comparison of some funds sold by Canadian banks as well as two popular ETFs. Continue Reading…