Tag Archives: Retirement

Tariffs Troubles? Remember this Timeless Tip: “It’s already priced in.”

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Image: Canva Custom Creation/Lowrie Financial

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to Financial Independence Hub

A key concern many investors have at the moment is the impact of Trump’s tariffs on goods produced outside the U.S. on the markets. I’m hearing from those wondering if they should do something to protect their wealth; their primary question is: What should I do with my investments?

My answer (as it usually is when investors are concerned about the geopolitical impact on the markets): stick with the plan because, by the time the news is public and you become concerned, the markets have already accounted for it/priced it in, so any reaction you take is too late.

A useful historical reference on tariffs is President Trump’s first term. Starting in 2017, his administration targeted China, implementing tariffs on a broad range of products by 2018. The following years saw ongoing trade negotiations that led to an agreement, though many tariffs remained. Despite the uncertainty, both U.S. and Chinese markets outperformed the MSCI World ex USA Index over Trump’s four-year term. Have a look at the data from 2017 to 2020, as Dimensional compares China MSCI Index to US S&P 500 Index to MSCI World ex USA Index.

Markets are forward-looking, meaning that the potential economic effects of tariffs are likely already factored into current prices. As a result, when these anticipated changes materialize, their impact on markets may be limited.

Understanding how Market Pricing Works

Let’s talk about the price of stocks.

It stands to reason: To make money in the market, you need to sell your holdings for more than you paid. Of course, we’re all familiar with good old “buy low, sell high.” But despite its simplicity, many investors fall short. Instead, they end up doing just the opposite, or at least leaving returns on the table that could have been theirs to keep.

You can defend against these human foibles by understanding how stock pricing works and using that knowledge to your advantage.

Good News, Bad News, and Market Views

How do you know when a stock or stock fund is priced for buying or selling?

The short answer is, we don’t.

And yet, many investors still let current events dominate their decisions. They sell when they fear bad news means prices are going to fall. Or they buy when good news breaks. They invest in funds that do the same.

While this may seem logical, there’s a problem with it: You’re betting you or your fund manager can place winning trades before markets have already priced in the news.

To be blunt, that’s a losing bet.

You’re betting that you know more about what the price should be at any given point than what the formidable force of the market has already decided. Every so often, you might be right. But the preponderance of the evidence suggests any “wins” are more a matter of luck than skill.

Me and You against the World

Whenever you try to buy low or sell high, who is the force on the other side of the trading table?

It’s the market.

The market includes millions of individuals, institutions, banks, and brokerages trading hundreds of billions of dollars every moment of every day. It includes highly paid analysts continuously watching every move the markets make. It includes AI-driven engines seeking to get their trades in nanoseconds ahead of everyone else.

And you think you can beat that?

We believe it’s far more reasonable to assume, by the time you’ve heard the news, the collective market has too, and has already priced it in.

  • News of a recession, under way or avoided? It’s already priced in.
  • Inflation on the rise, or abating? It’s already priced in.
  • A company suffers a calamity or makes a major breakthrough? It’s already priced in.
  • The government passes critical legislation that helps or hinders global trading? It’s…

And so on. Here’s your best assumption:

If it’s public knowledge, it’s already priced in. (And if it’s insider information, it’s illegal to trade on it.)

What we don’t yet Know

As soon as an event is priced in, several things make it difficult to profitably trade on the news:

You’re Buying High, Selling Low: If you trade on news after it’s been priced in, odds are you’ll buy at a higher price (after good news) or sell at a lower price (based on bad news). Continue Reading…

Looking to treat your loved one this Valentine’s Day? Give the gift of a financial conversation

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Only half of Canadian couples discuss finances in detail, an IG Wealth Management study conducted by Pollard found. This week may be a good time to examine your joint lifestyle and retirement goals.

 

Image by Deposit Photos

By Blair Evans

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Valentine’s Day is here and while love may be in the air, there’s an often-overlooked gift that can strengthen your relationship: a meaningful conversation about finances.

Unsurprisingly, many Canadian couples shy away from discussing money with their partners. According to a recent study by IG Wealth Management, in partnership with Pollara Strategic Insights, only half of married or common law Canadians discuss finances with their partner in detail, with roughly a third talking about it only briefly.

Yet, when thinking about your future together, especially retirement, these conversations are crucial. You and your partner should be aligned on your retirement goals and lifestyle to ensure you plan appropriately and are fiscally prepared to enjoy those golden years.

Transparency on Finances can pay off in multiple ways

Image by Pexels

Transparency around your finances and having proactive conversations with your partner can also pay off come tax season.

Working together to file each of your tax returns can unlock opportunities to maximize deductions and credits.

You may be able to transfer unused credits, like tuition and disability amounts, to your partner to help alleviate their tax bill.

Couples can also combine their medical expenses and charitable donations together to minimize their overall tax obligation.

If your relationship is built for the long haul, it’s important to plan for life’s uncertainties.  Building an emergency fund, as well as having an updated will and power of attorney, along with proper life and disability insurance plans are essential to prepare for any emergencies or untimely circumstances. Continue Reading…

A Misunderstanding about Taking CPP Early to Invest

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By Michael J. Wiener

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Recently, Braden Warwick at PWL Capital created an excellent CPP calculator that we can all use.  One of the numbers this calculator reports is the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) you’ll get between your CPP contributions and the CPP pension you’ll collect.  Some financial advisors (but not Braden) decide it makes sense for their clients to take CPP as early as possible (age 60), and invest the proceeds.  Their reasoning is that they believe they can earn a higher return.  Here I explain why this logic compares the wrong returns.

The return you’ll get on your CPP contributions depends on the contributions you and your employer have made and the benefits you’ll get.  These amounts depend on many factors about your life as well as some assumptions about the future.  Typically, the return people get on CPP is between inflation+2% and inflation+4%.  (However, it can go higher if you took time off work with a disability or to raise your children.  It also goes higher if you ignore the CPP contributions your employer made on your behalf, but I think this makes a false comparison.)

If we examine people’s lifetime investment record, not many beat inflation by as much as CPP does.  However, some do.  And many more think they will in the future.  In particular, many financial advisors believe they can do better for their clients.

But what are we comparing here?  These advisors are imagining a world where CPP doesn’t exist.  Instead of making CPP contributions, their clients invest this money with the advisor.  In this fictitious world, the advisor may or may not outperform CPP.  However, this isn’t the world we live in.  CPP is mandatory for those earning a wage.

The choice people have to make is at what age they’ll start collecting their CPP pension.  The CPP rules permit starting anywhere from age 60 to 70.  The longer you wait, the higher the monthly payments get.  Consider an example of twins who are now 70.  The first started CPP a decade ago at 60 and the payments have risen with inflation to be $850 per month now.  The other waited and has just started getting $2000 per month.  The benefit of waiting is substantial if you have enough savings to bridge the gap between retiring and collecting CPP, and don’t have severely compromised health.

Those with enough savings to bridge a gap of a few years have a choice to make.  Should they take CPP immediately upon retiring, or should they spend their savings for a while in return for larger future CPP payments?  Some advisors will say to take CPP right away and invest the money, but this is motivated reasoning.  The more money we invest with advisors, the more they make. Continue Reading…

The Cost of Overspending in Retirement: How a Withdrawal Strategy saved $16,500 annually

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A Retirement Income Solution: How Milestones Retirement Insights helped one Alberta Couple Save $16,500 annually

By Ian Moyer

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Retirement is meant to be a time of relaxation and enjoyment, but for many Canadians, managing retirement income efficiently can be a major challenge. This was the case for a couple in Alberta, aged 70 and retired for five years. They were concerned about depleting their savings too quickly and needed a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy to better sustain their retirement lifestyle.

The Problem: Overspending Without a Plan

The couple had a mix of financial assets, including:

  • RRSPs: $400,000 remaining
  • TFSAs: $75,000 remaining
  • Joint Non-Registered Savings: $50,000 remaining

They were spending $80,000 a year without a clear withdrawal strategy, leading to inefficiencies and over-taxation. This lack of guidance was costing them $16,500 annually, money that could have been used to enhance their lifestyle.

 

 The Solution: A Tailored Withdrawal Strategy

Using Milestones Retirement Insights, they were able to restructure their withdrawals to maximize after-tax income while preserving their savings for the long term. Here’s how:

  1. Prioritizing TFSA Withdrawals: We tapped into their tax-free savings account first, allowing them to access funds without triggering additional taxes.
  2. Splitting RRSP Withdrawals Over Time: By drawing from their RRSP in smaller increments, we kept their income within lower tax brackets.
  3. Non-Registered Savings for Gaps: Joint savings were used strategically to fill gaps, minimizing tax exposure while ensuring consistent income.
  4. Optimal RRIF Conversion: We structured their RRSP to RRIF transition to further reduce taxes and take advantage of pension income splitting.

Key Consideration: RRSP to RRIF Conversion

When you reach retirement, a registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) has the option of converting to a registered retirement income fund (RRIF). To provide a sustainable retirement income and minimize your income and estate taxes, we’ve calculated an average annual RRIF payment of $28,112 starting at age 70. At an assumed rate of return of 5%, this investment will deplete to $0 at age 88. Continue Reading…

The History of Shiny New Toys: Are U.S. Tech valuations stretched?

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Just as I thought it was going alright
I found out I’m wrong when I thought I was right
It’s always the same, it’s just a shame, that’s all
I could say day and you’d say night
Tell me it’s black when I know that it’s white
Always the same, it’s just a shame, and that’s all

— That’s All, by Genesis

Shutterstock/Outcome

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

As we enter 2025, the general consensus is that stocks are set to deliver another year of decent returns. Most strategists contend that we will be in a goldilocks environment characterized by positive readings on economic growth, profits, inflation, and rates.

This sentiment is particularly evident in the current valuation level of the S&P 500 Index. Regardless of which metric one uses, the index is extremely elevated relative to its historical range. Interestingly, U.S. stocks are an outlier when compared to other major markets (including Canada), which are trading at valuations that are in line with historical averages.

 

The Best of Times and the Worst of Times

Unfortunately, the history books are quite clear about what can happen to markets that attain peak valuations. The four largest debacles in the history of modern markets were all preceded by peak valuations.

  • In 1929, the U.S stock market traded at the highest PE multiple in its history up to that time. This lofty multiple presaged the worst 10 years in the history of the U.S. stock market.
  • In 1989, the Japanese stock market was trading at 65 times earnings. The aggregate value of Japanese stocks exceeded that of U.S. stocks despite the fact that the U.S. economy was three times the size of its Japanese counterpart. Soon after, things went from sensational to miserable, with Japanese stocks suffering a particularly prolonged and steep decline.
  • In early 2000, the S&P 500 Index, aided and abetted by a tremendous bubble in technology, media, and telecom stocks, reached the highest multiple in its history. Not long thereafter, the index suffered a peak trough decline of roughly 50% over the next few years.
  • In early 2008, the S&P 500 stood at its highest valuation in history, with the exception of the multiples that preceded the Great Depression and the tech wreck. The ensuing debacle brought the global economy to the brink of collapse and required an unprecedented amount of monetary stimulus and government bailouts.

The bottom line is that markets have historically been a very poor predictor of the future. At times when asset prices were most convinced of heaven, they could not have been more wrong. The loftiest valuations have not merely been followed by tough times, but by the worst of times. Time and gain, peak multiples have foreshadowed the worst results, which brings to mind one of my favorite quotes from John Kenneth Galbraith:

“There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.”

The Common Feature

There is one common feature to these sorrowful tales of peak multiples which ended in tears. In each case, peak valuations followed a prolonged period of near-perfect environments characterized by strong economic and profit growth unmarred by any obvious clouds on the horizon.

  • The years preceding the Great Depression entailed an economy that had not merely been growing but booming.
  • Prior to 1989, the Japanese economy enjoyed decades of torrid growth, prompting some economists and strategists to predict that it would eventually eclipse the U.S. economy.
  • In early 2008, the U.S. economy was being propelled by a real estate bubble underpinned by an “it can only go up” mindset and a related explosion in lax credit and lending standards.

The S&P 500 Index currently stands at its highest multiple in the postwar era, save for the late 1990s tech bubble. Optimists justify this development by pointing to what they believe to be a rosy future with respect to the U.S. economy, earnings, inflation, and interest rates. Sound familiar?

I’m not saying that highly elevated multiples necessarily foreshadow imminent doom. However, when juxtaposing the current valuation of the S&P 500 with historical experience, one should consider becoming more defensive. As famous philosopher George Santayana stated, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Driving without Airbags or Seatbelts

The underlying cause of the aforementioned market crashes is not merely economies and profits that were contracting, but that asset prices were priced for exactly the opposite. This left markets woefully exposed when the proverbial music stopped.

Think of market risk like you think about driving a car. If you are driving a car with airbags and you are wearing a seatbelt, then chances are you will emerge with minimal or no injuries if you get into an accident. However, if your car has no airbags and you are not wearing a seatbelt, then the chances that you will sustain serious injuries (or worse) are materially higher. Similarly, when multiples are at or below average levels and profits hit a rough patch, the resulting carnage in asset prices tends to be muted. Conversely, if any financial bumps in the road occur when valuations lie significantly higher than historical averages, then the ensuing losses will be much more severe. Also, even if you manage to complete your journey without any mishaps, it’s not clear that having no airbags and not wearing a seatbelt made your ride much more enjoyable or comfortable than if this had not been the case. Continue Reading…