Sequence of Returns Risk: Chart by Stefano Starkel
My latest MoneySense Retired Money column touches on a number of blogs that regular readers of Findependence Hub may already have seen, but ties together a few disparate threads that may warrant revisiting. Click on the highlighted headline here for the full article: The CAPE ratio, the 4% rule and retirement anxiety.
The focus is on the 4% Rule, Sequence of Returns Risk early in Retirement, and stock valuations measured by the CAPE Ratio.
The 4% Rule is one of those Personal Finance chestnuts, a topic we explored in Retired Money as recently as late 2025 (here.) My Findependence Hub blog on the 4% Rule appeared late in July here.
Robert Shiller’s CAPE Ratio: the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio (CAPE), is a measure of how fairly valued or overvalued stocks may be. The blog on the CAPE Ratio ran late in August here. Both are under my byline: Each contains full raw quotes from a variety of business owners and investment professionals on both sides of the border, gathered on Linked In and a service called Connectively, formerly Featured.com.
A useful primer on the CAPE Ratio was provided by blogger Michael J. Wiener, on his Michael James on Money blog (from early August), also republished here on Findependence Hub in August. He says the CAPE Ratio is “just the current price divided by the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade.” Investopedia defines the CAPE Ratio as “a valuation measure that uses real earnings per share over a 10-year period to smooth out fluctuations in corporate profits.” You can find more on CAPE here on Wikipedia.
See also this recent Findependence Hub blog by Stefano Starkel titled the The Alternative to the 4% Rule isn’t a different number: It’s a different mechanism. There, Starkel argues that “the fragile part of a fixed-withdrawal plan is Sequence-of-Returns risk.” He shows a chart [shown above] that demonstrates how early losses in Retirement can have a dramatically negative impact on returns and thus Retirement income.
Stay Calm
Sure, proper diversification and asset allocation should allow you to Stay Calm, which happens to be the title of a new book published early in September by David Booth: he’s a founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), one of the better indexing companies out there. I have finished reading it and plan to review it for MoneySense in the near future.
The main principles of the DFA approach to investing is to keep costs low by minimizing trading and using passive investing vehicles like ETFs, and above all trust the markets over the long term while avoiding picking individual stocks and attempting to time financial markets.
As we aim to do roughly every month, today’s blog on Financial Independence taps the expertise of multiple business owners and investment experts on both sides of the border gathered through Connectively in partnership with LinkedIn.
This edition looks specifically at the FIRE movement, which of course is an acronym for Financial Independence Retire Early.
The paragraph reproduced below is how we posed the question.
The subsequent replies chosen are presented almost in full, with links to the source contained in their bios at the end of each section. I’ve added subheadings to speed readers through the content I hope is relevant to them.
What is your take on the FIRE movement (Financial Independence Retire Early)? Do you prefer a different term, do you believe in the FI part but not the RE part? How early is too early to “retire?” How do you define Retirement? Full-stop never work again, or just no longer being a corporate salaried employee. Any favorite FIRE blogs or podcasts you subscribe to or recommend?
“Most FIRE folks I’ve encountered don’t actually stop working; they stop working for someone else.”
Ah, the FIRE movement: where twenty-somethings eat rice and beans for a decade so they never have to attend another Monday morning meeting. I love the “FI” part with my whole heart. Financial Independence isn’t a trend; it’s just smart adulting. Building an emergency fund, crushing high-interest debt, investing consistently: that’s timeless wisdom dressed up in a catchy acronym.
The “RE” part, though? That’s where I raise a legal eyebrow. Retiring at 32 sounds thrilling until you realize you’ve got 50+ years of healthcare costs, inflation, and “what if the market tanks in year three” anxiety ahead of you. I’ve seen too many bankruptcy filings from people who front-loaded their optimism and back-loaded their income planning. So my official stance: FI, yes. RE, only if your math is bulletproof and you have a contingency plan tighter than a loan shark’s payment schedule.
How early is too early? There’s no magic number, but if you’re retiring before you’ve stress-tested your plan against a recession, a health crisis, and at least one kid’s emergency root canal, you’re retiring on hope, not strategy. I’d rather see someone retire at 45 with a fortress of a financial plan than at 35 with a house of cards.
As for defining “retirement”, I don’t buy the full-stop-never-work-again version. Most FIRE folks I’ve encountered don’t actually stop working; they stop working for someone else. They pivot to consulting, passion projects, or that Etsy shop selling hand-painted rocks. That’s not retirement—that’s career emancipation. And frankly, that’s healthier. Purposeless days can be as damaging to your well-being as an unpaid credit card is to your credit score.
Favorite resources? I keep an eye on “ChooseFI” for community-driven inspiration and practical steps, and “Mr. Money Mustache” for someone who’ll bluntly tell you to stop buying lattes and start buying index funds. But I always tell people: read these for motivation, not gospel. Your debt situation, your state’s laws, and your risk tolerance are yours alone—no blog can litigate your specific financial life like a good advisor (or attorney) can.
Bottom line: chase Financial Independence like it’s your job. Just make sure “Retiring Early” doesn’t quietly become “Filing for Bankruptcy Early” instead. — Loretta Kilday, DebtCC Spokesperson, Debt Consolidation Care
“I prefer the term Financial Autonomy.”
Financial Independence is the ultimate risk management strategy, yet the “Retire Early” label often misdiagnoses the goal as an escape from productivity rather than an acquisition of professional autonomy.
I prefer the term Financial Autonomy because it reflects a shift in capital allocation rather than a cessation of value creation. After two decades overseeing financial strategy and delivery operations, I have found that high-performing leaders rarely want to stop contributing; they simply want to stop answering to inefficient structures. Retirement should not be defined as a full-stop end to work, but as the pivot point where professional activity is driven entirely by intellectual curiosity rather than financial necessity.
The math of independence must be approached with the same discipline as a corporate balance sheet. Many proponents of early retirement rely on withdrawal models that fail to account for long-tail risks like global healthcare inflation or currency volatility across a 50-year horizon. It is too early to step away until a portfolio has been stress-tested against at least two distinct economic cycles. True independence requires ensuring that passive cash flow exceeds lifestyle burn even during prolonged periods of market stagnation.
Durable financial planning relies on economic history and financial biographies rather than the fleeting trends of modern hustle culture. Understanding how capital markets and labor value have shifted over the last century provides a more stable framework for long-term planning. The objective is to reach a stage where you are no longer a salaried employee by obligation, but a contributor to the economy by design. Sustainable returns are not just about the balance in a brokerage account; they are about the continued growth and leverage of your human capital. — Abhishek Pareek, Founder & Director, Coders.dev
“Real freedom is being able to say no to what drains you and yes to what sustains you.”
I’ve seen too many high achievers burn out chasing Financial Independence, then realize they don’t know who they are without the hustle. The problem isn’t the FIRE framework itself, it’s that people use it to escape rather than create. They’re running from burnout instead of asking why they’re burned out in the first place.
I believe in the FI part because autonomy matters. But retiring at 35 or 40 can backfire if you haven’t figured out what actually fulfills you beyond hitting achievement metrics. I think of retirement as the freedom to choose work that aligns with your values, not necessarily stopping work altogether. Some of my most miserable clients were financially independent but spiritually empty because they’d built their entire identity around accumulation. Real freedom is being able to say no to what drains you and yes to what sustains you, whether that happens at 45 or 65. — Samka Keranovic, Founder, Drwmbs
“Financial Independence is about buying your freedom to choose.”
I love the ambition behind FIRE, but I’d reframe it slightly: Financial Independence is about buying your freedom to choose, and that’s something I think about constantly running operations at Scale By SEO.
The FI part is undeniable. When you’ve built enough cushion that a bad month doesn’t sink you, you make sharper decisions, negotiate better, and sleep easier. The RE part is where I’d push back on the label, because most people who “retire early” at 35 or 40 are really just changing what they work on, not stopping work entirely.
That’s my definition of retirement, honestly: it’s not never working again, it’s never being forced to work on something you don’t care about. Full-stop retirement sounds like a fast track to boredom for a lot of driven people. The folks I admire treat FI as leverage. They leave the salaried corporate role and pour energy into something they own, whether that’s a business, a portfolio of projects, or in my world, building free tools like our customizable QR code generator because they want to, not because payroll depends on it.
How early is too early? Whenever the math only works if nothing ever goes wrong. I apply the same logic I use with clients: we back our SEO plans with a six-month performance guarantee, continuing services for free if KPIs aren’t met, because we’d rather absorb the risk ourselves than ask a small business to bet everything on hope. That’s the FIRE mindset done right, protect the downside first, then race toward freedom. If someone at 32 has a plan that survives market crashes, health surprises, and inflation, more power to them. If it only works in a spreadsheet, they’ve built a fantasy, not a plan.
For reading and listening, I’d point people to Mr. Money Mustache for the no-nonsense math and ChooseFI for the community side of the equation. Both do a great job separating hype from substance, which is the same standard I’d hold any advice to, financial or otherwise. — Melissa Basmayor, Marketing Coordinator, Freeqrcode.ai
“The financial objective, in my view, should be freedom of choice rather than freedom from all work.”
I strongly believe in the FI part of FIRE, but I am less attached to the idea that financial independence should automatically lead to retiring as early as possible.
For me, Financial Independence means reaching the point where your decisions are no longer dictated by the next paycheck. That could mean leaving a corporate job, changing careers, starting a business, working fewer hours, or simply having enough financial security to say no to work you no longer want to do.
I therefore prefer to think of FIRE as “Financial Independence, Reclaiming Employment” rather than necessarily “Retire Early.”
I do not think there is a universal age that is too early to retire. The bigger question is what someone is retiring to. Work provides more than income: routine, social contact, intellectual challenge and a sense of usefulness. If someone reaches financial independence at 40 but removes all of those things without replacing them, early retirement may not feel as rewarding as expected.
My definition of retirement is not “never earn another dollar.” It is reaching the point where paid work becomes optional rather than compulsory.
The financial objective, in my view, should be freedom of choice rather than freedom from all work. — Cem Oner, Founder / Finance & Public Data Publisher, Hesap Cebimde
“My definition of retirement is not ‘never work again.’ It’s never being forced to work again. Huge difference.”
I’m a believer in the FI part, one hundred percent. The RE part is where I push back, and here’s why: I built Scale By SEO from scratch, and I’ve watched consistent effort compound the same way money does. Walking away from work you love at 35 to sit on a beach sounds like quitting a marathon at mile twenty because your legs feel fine.
My preferred term is “Financial independence, work on your terms.” The money buys you optionality, not an exit. It means you take a client because you want to, not because rent is due. That’s the real win.
How early is too early? There’s no magic number, but too early is when you retire from something instead of to something. If you don’t have a reason to get up in the morning that isn’t a paycheck, the money won’t fix that. I’ve watched business owners sell out and go stir-crazy within a year. Purpose doesn’t have a price target.
And my definition of retirement is not “never work again.” It’s never being forced to work again. Huge difference. I run an SEO agency out of Harlingen, Texas, and I genuinely enjoy helping small businesses, plumbers, healthcare practices, auto body shops, get found online. Would I stop doing that because a portfolio hit a number? Absolutely not. Work you choose is one of life’s great pleasures.
On resources, Mr. Money Mustache is still the best voice in the space, and his writing is funny on top of being smart.
The ChooseFI podcast is my go-to for practical tactics, and JL Collins’ “The Simple Path to Wealth” is the book I’d hand anyone starting from zero. His stock series alone is worth hours of your time.
One warning: the FIRE crowd can obsess over the math and skip the meaning. Independence is a tool. Decide what it’s for before you chase it. I’d rather be sixty and excited about my work than forty and bored on a beach. — Wayne Lowry, CEO, Scale By SEO
“Buy the freedom, skip the recliner.”
Buy the freedom, skip the recliner. That’s my FIRE philosophy in one line, and I think it’s the healthiest version of the movement.
I buy the FI part completely. Financial Independence is just margin in your life: low overhead, real savings, the ability to say no. Running a small roastery teaches you that fast. Since Craig Keel founded Equipoise Coffee in 2021, every day has been about prioritizing when resources are tight. Do we spend on another single-origin like the Ethiopian Yirgacheffe, or on brewing guides that help people make better coffee at home? Margin is what lets you make those calls from strategy instead of panic. Personal finance works the same way.
The RE part is where I’d edit the script. I prefer “financial independence” plain and simple, maybe “financial autonomy,” because “retire early” sells an ending when most people actually want a beginning. I define retirement as the point where work becomes a choice rather than an obligation. By that definition, I know plenty of “retired” people who work more passionately than any salaried employee, and plenty of employed people who retired emotionally years ago.
How early is too early? When you’ve funded decades of pure consumption with nothing you’re building toward, you’ve traded one imbalance for another. Our whole brand philosophy is balance, in the cup and in life. A coffee that’s all brightness and no body falls flat, and so does a life that’s all freedom and no purpose.
On resources, Mr. Money Mustache is the classic and still worth reading, less for the math than for the “build the life you want, then save for it” ethos. ChooseFI is a solid podcast with a wide range of guest stories worth sampling.
So if FIRE means engineering the freedom to do work you love, I’m all in. If it means never working again, that just sounds like a long, quiet fade. — Rory Keel, Owner, Equipoise Coffee
My honest take: the “FI” half matters far more than the “RE” half
My honest take: the “FI” half matters far more than the “RE” half — the math (25 times your annual expenses, per the 4% rule) doesn’t care whether financial independence means quitting work entirely or just no longer needing the paycheck, and that distinction gets lost when people fixate on “retiring early.” I’d define retirement less as “never earning another dollar” and more as your paycheck becoming optional — once a portfolio can sustain a lower, safe withdrawal without more contributions, working becomes a choice about meaning rather than survival. The lever that actually moves someone’s FIRE date isn’t income, it’s savings rate: saving 10% of your income buys roughly one year of retirement for every nine years worked, but push that to 50% and it gets close to one-for-one, a bigger shift than most raises ever deliver. I build the free FIRE and compound-interest calculators at TheSmartWealthTools.com, so I watch that one input move people’s timelines by decades more than any other number on the page. — Haggai Tzouk, Founder, TheSmartWealthTools.com
Financial Independence is real. The “retire early” part is where people lose the plot.
I’m Runbo Li, co-founder and CEO of Magic Hour. The FIRE movement gets the diagnosis right but the prescription wrong. Financial independence is real. The “retire early” part is where people lose the plot.
I watched my parents run small businesses my entire life. They never talked about retirement. They talked about freedom. Freedom to pick which problems they wanted to solve, which customers they wanted to serve, which days they wanted to work. That’s a fundamentally different orientation than “stop working as fast as possible.” Continue Reading…
As those who follow me on social media may already know, financial guru David Chilton interviewed me on his popular The Wealthy Barber podcast, which dropped Tuesday on YouTube.com. You can find the full 39-minute clip here: try 1.5x speed if you’re pressed for time!
David is a good interviewer and got me to confess a few things I might not have coughed up otherwise. Mostly, we chatted about personal finance in Canada, retirement and retirement planning and — a particular concern for David — the plight of young Canadians priced out of the Canadian real estate market. This included a discussion of our own family’s situation and how the “Bank of Mum and Dad” may be enlisted to supplement down payments scraped up by some combination of TFSAs, the RRSP Home Buyers Plan and the new First Home Savings Accounts (FHSAs) that David is quite enthusiastic abøut.
Naturally we talked about Retirement. David himself is retiring at the end of this year soon after he turns 65, so he will have “beaten” me to Full Retirement by roughly eight years. I wrote about his looming Retirement recently in my MoneySense Retired Money column, which was also flagged here on Findependence Hub.
A Who’s Who of Canadian Personal Finance
I was David’s 71st interview on the podcast since he launched it two years ago: he says he plans to keep it going at least until the end of this year. As I comment in the interview, his many guests constitute a veritable “Who’s who” of Canadian personal finance, with a handful of Americans thrown in.
Glad to be part of it and to join such luminaries as Ben Felix, Preet Banerjee, Rob Carrick, Fred Vettese and many more. As David notes, a lot of his guests are younger newer voices known as “Finfluencers,” a group I also wrote about in Retired Money earlier this summer.
We also discuss other more “seasoned” financial commentators, including Bruce Cohen, Ellen Roseman, Jim Daw, Mike Grenby and other pioneers of the genre. Some of those veterans’ names came up in another Retired Money interview I did after Rob Carrick retired a year ago from his full-time job at the Globe & Mail.
The financial novels spawned by The Wealthy Barber
With an estimated 4- to 5- million copies of his books sold worldwide, it’s no surprize that Chilton’s pseudo-fiction financial format spawned many imitators. I fondly recall Jim Daw (retired from the Toronto Star) cracking a joke about the many financial novel knockoffs inspired by The Wealthy Barber. Rather than a “branch” of personal finance literature, Jim quipped in his review of my own Findependence Day that this specialized field consituted merely a “twig” of the genre.
While much of the interview was perforce about investing and retirement, good interviewer that he is David manages to coax some confessions about my own lifestyle and choices. For example, I tackled headon the fact that the title of my own similarly titled The Wealthy Boomer was not initially conceived as a ripoff of Chilton’s far more commercially successful The Wealthy Barber: that title was just a description of the possible demographic target for the book’s publisher.
We also talked about 12 Good Years, the blog that blogger Fritz Gilbert originally ran on his Retirement Manifesto blog. That article make she case that new or aspiring retirees should strive to make the best of the years between ages 60 and 72, whether for strenuous travel or demanding hobbies, physically or mentally. Continue Reading…
Vanguard Canada opens Toronto Stock Exchange on Sept. 9, 2026. Photo courtesy TMX Group.
Yesterday, Vanguard Investments Canada Inc. announced the launch of what it says is its first actively managed fixed-income ETF: the Vanguard Global Core-Plus Bond ETF (TSX: VCOR). VCOR began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday (Sept.9, 2026), where Vanguard opened trading for the day (as shown on left.)
The new ETF was a major focus of one of two major presentations at Vanguard Canada’s annual Global Insights Forum, held in Toronto at the Royal York Hotel. The other was billed as Megatrends, AI and Market Implications.
In a press release, Vanguard Capital Management CIO and Global Head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group Sara Devereux described VCOR as being part of the firm’s push to make Vanguard’s specialized fixed-income capabilities accessible to more investors. She said it “combines the resources of our global investment platform, a disciplined active process, and broad diversification across fixed-income markets in a single ETF.”
It aims to provide investors and their financial advisors with an “actively managed, single-ticket fixed-income solution at a low management fee of 0.25%.” While the “core” allocation is to investment-grade bonds, it also invests in global rates, credit, and securitized markets, along with a “plus” component that allocates to higher-yielding bonds. Depending on markets, investors can expect allocations of between 20% and 50% for investment-grade credit; 0 to 20% U.S. treasuries/agency; 10 to 35% mortgages; 5 to 20% Emerging Markets debt and 0 to 20% high-yield corporates. The fund seeks to hedge its U.S.-dollar currency exposure back to the Canadian dollar and plans to pay monthly distributions.
Sal D’Angelo, Head of Vanguard Canada, said active ETFs have experienced significant growth in Canada and now account for roughly a third of Canadian ETF assets: “We continue to see strong advisor and investor demand for active global fixed-income solutions that offer broader diversification and access to a wider opportunity set.”
Bonds becoming more important for financial advisors as well as their clients
Dan Shaykevich/Linkedin
At the Forum on Wednesday, the new ETF was the focus of a presentation by Vanguard principal and senior portfolio manager Dan Shaykevich (pictured on right). Fixed income is once again playing a central role in investor portfolios, he said. As Canadian financial advisors prepare for CRM3 (Client Relationship Model Phase 3), it will also play a more important role for advisors too. The fund taps one of the world’s largest Fixed-Income money managers: Vanguard’s global fixed income team manages US4.2 trillion in assets under management, including C$30 billion in Canadian Bonds. It’s supported by more than 20 portfolio managers, 35 traders, 50 credit researchers and at least eight quantitative analysts.
Generally speaking, financial advisors tend to spend more time with clients on equities than on Fixed Income, Shaykevich said, “even though Fixed Income may be 20 to 40%” of advisors’ money under management.
Marketing materials distributed at the event included an insert on Fixed Income Investing reminding investors that bonds can complement the growth potential of equities by providing stability, generating income and supporing diversification.
The insert lists several already existing Canadian Index-based Fixed Income ETFs. They include: Continue Reading…
So just how pricey is the U.S. stock market compared to Canada and international stocks? Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio is the valuation metric that most financial gurus and experts point to in answering this question. In his Michael James on Money blog republished here last week, Michael J. Wiener provided a useful definition of the CAPE Ratio and how he uses it in his own portfolio. See How I handle high stock prices in my portfolio.
In this blog, we once again polled dozens of financial experts and business owners on both sides of the border via Linked In and Connectively.
We’ve picked roughly a dozen of the 34 responses submitted, presented below, with subheads summarizing the main points made in each submission. Linked to their respective websites are contained in the italicized bios that end each contribution.
Here’s how we posed the question at Connectively:
What is your current view of US and global stock market valuations? Based on Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio do you regard US and global/Canadian stocks as fairly valued or in danger of being overvalued and vulnerable to a major correction? If so, what actions would you suggest investors take, depending on their age and risk tolerance?
Waiting for CAPE ratios to normalize can also cost you
Based on Shiller’s CAPE ratio, U.S. stock valuations have been quite elevated from their historic average for some time now, but the readers who kept hoping for the CAPE to normalize before buying have basically missed an entire decade of gains, which makes me very skeptical of relying solely on CAPE ratios to time the market.
What I recommend telling the people is that high CAPE implies certain things about low future return on investment over the following 10 years, but nothing can be said about the upcoming months or the upcoming year: that’s the most important point for those building a strategy for the future, and not reacting to the headlines.
Those who still have decades to go before reaching Retirement should probably just keep all the money invested and use dollar cost averaging as the main way to get through the volatility period. In case of those approaching retirement (within 5-10 years), it would be wise to reassess the allocations, have enough cash to survive at least one or two years without investing anything, and maybe increase the allocation in non-US markets, as they currently trade at relatively more attractive multiples (Canada and Europe).
My concern with MintWit readers is not overvaluation itself: but that people would panic-sell during the upcoming market correction due to ignoring their risk tolerance for many years during the growth period. — Scott Brown, Founder, MintWit
Rebalance away from high-multiple growth equities into defensive dividend assets, short-duration bonds, and cash equivalents
Based on the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, I view United States equity valuations as historically elevated and vulnerable to a correction. Conversely, international and Canadian equities trade at more reasonable multiples, offering comparatively defensive valuation buffers.
In this environment, asset allocation must align with individual horizons and risk tolerance. Younger investors with long horizons and high risk tolerance should maintain disciplined dollar-cost averaging into global indexes while tilting toward undervalued non-US markets. Meanwhile, older investors and conservative individuals nearing retirement should actively de-risk portfolios. I recommend rebalancing away from high-multiple growth equities into defensive dividend assets, short-duration bonds, and cash equivalents to preserve accumulated wealth against drawdown risk. — RUTAO XU, Founder & COO, TAOAPEX LTD
A high CAPE is not a signal to panic or exit, it is a signal to temper expectations and rebalance toward your actual targets
The number tells the story better than any opinion could. The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 sits at roughly 42 as of August 2026, more than double the long run historical median of 17, and only 18 months in over a century of data have ever read higher, all of them clustered around the year 1999. That is not moderately expensive, that is rare territory, the kind the market has visited only once before.
History does not treat a high CAPE as a countdown clock. It has almost no power to call the next 12 months, and the market spent most of the 1990s looking expensive by this same measure while doubling anyway. What it does predict, fairly consistently, is weaker average returns over the following decade, not a specific crash date.
Globally the picture is not uniform either, since markets like Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan currently show some of the richest valuations after a sharp rally, while earnings growth there has kept ordinary P/E multiples looking more reasonable than CAPE alone suggests. The lesson I would offer is this: A high CAPE is not a signal to panic or exit, it is a signal to temper expectations, rebalance toward your actual targets, and make sure your risk exposure matches your time horizon, not the headline. — Swayam Doshi, Founder, Suspire
“The U.S. stock market is undeniably skating on historically thin ice.”
Let’s get the legal record straight first: I am a consumer finance and bankruptcy attorney, not a Wall Street portfolio manager or a licensed investment advisor. My daily work involves helping people survive the financial wreckage of bad decisions, not predicting market tops. But after thirty years watching market cycles pop and drop, I know exactly what overvaluation looks like right before it hits my desk in the form of Chapter 7 bankruptcy petitions.
If we look at Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, the U.S. stock market is undeniably skating on historically thin ice. With the U.S. CAPE ratio consistently hovering well above its long-term historical average of about 17, equities are priced for absolute perfection in a world that is notoriously messy.
While global and Canadian stocks are valued somewhat more reasonably, a severe correction in New York will inevitably drag Toronto, London, and Tokyo down with it. The market is vulnerable, and ignoring this is a luxury only the financially reckless can afford.
The action you should take depends entirely on your financial runway:
For Boomers and those near retirement, “sequence of returns risk” is your mortal enemy. If the market corrects 20% tomorrow and you are forced to sell equities to fund your daily life, your portfolio may never recover. My advice? De-leverage aggressively. Enter retirement completely debt-free. Build a two-year cash or short-term Treasury cushion completely outside the stock market. This ensures that if the market takes a dive, you can live off your cash buffer without being forced to sell your depreciated stocks at clearance-sale prices.
For Gen Z and Millennials, a major market correction is actually a gift. You have the ultimate asset on your side: time. If the market drops, do not panic, do not look at your account balance, and under no circumstances should you sell. Keep your job, protect your emergency fund, and continue dollar-cost averaging into broad, low-cost index funds. You are simply buying world-class assets on sale, and your future self will thank you.
Valuations tell us about the market weather, but your personal debt levels and emergency reserves determine whether your financial house will survive the storm. Do not let market greed outpace your common sense. — Lyle Solomon, Principal Attorney, Oak View Law Group
This is “not a market screaming for a correction. It is a market with very little margin of safety left …”
I’d rather answer this with our own numbers than with a CAPE reading, because CAPE describes an index and says almost nothing about the company someone actually owns.
Across the 881 U.S. and European companies we cover, our valuation model currently rates 67% fairly valued, 24% undervalued and 9% overvalued. Of the 487 names where we publish a fair-value estimate, 31% already trade above it, and the median remaining upside on the rest is 14.5%.
That is not a market screaming for a correction. It is a market with very little margin of safety left, which is a different and less dramatic problem. A high CAPE has preceded flat decades and strong ones; as a timing signal it has been unreliable enough that acting on it has cost more than ignoring it. What it does tell you reliably is that a dollar invested today buys less future earnings than it used to.
On what investors should do about that, split by age and risk tolerance: I can’t answer that responsibly. Those decisions turn on income stability, time horizon, existing holdings and tax position, none of which I can see, and one answer covering everyone would be worth less than no answer.
The discipline that survives the question is narrower and duller: when the median name carries thin upside, the edge comes from refusing to overpay, not from predicting the turn. That is a rule about your own behaviour, and it needs no forecast. — Razvan Luca, Founder, Talval Research
“Nobody, at any age, should bet money they need within five years on today’s prices.”
The honest read: Shiller’s CAPE ratio has been sitting well above its long-term historical average for years, and when valuations stretch that far, forward returns over the next decade tend to disappoint.
That doesn’t guarantee a crash next quarter, but it tells you the margin of safety is thin. US stocks look expensive; Canadian and broader global markets trade at meaningful discounts, which is exactly why diversifying across geographies matters more than conviction in one hot market.
My advice by age and risk tolerance is straightforward. If you’re under 40, stay invested, keep buying through any correction, and let time do the heavy lifting; volatility is your friend when you’re accumulating. If you’re 40 to 55, this is the window to rebalance, trim concentrated winners, and shift some exposure toward undervalued international markets and bonds so a 30 percent drawdown doesn’t wreck your timeline.
If you’re near or in retirement, you can’t afford to ride out a lost decade, so hold two to three years of expenses in cash and short-term instruments and keep the rest diversified. Nobody, at any age, should bet money they need within five years on today’s prices.
I run the free QR code generator at Scale By SEO, and the discipline transfers more than people think. We never promise clients outcomes we can’t measure; that’s why our SEO plans carry a six-month performance guarantee where work continues for free if KPIs aren’t met. I bring that same skepticism to markets: demand evidence, demand accountability, and never confuse a bull market for skill. Before we publish guidance, we research it, and before you act on valuation fears, you should too.
Overvalued markets don’t have to crash; they can simply grind sideways for years, and the investors who win are the ones who sized their risk properly long before headlines turned negative. Position for the world as it is, not as you hope it becomes. — Melissa Basmayor, Marketing Coordinator, Freeqrcode.ai
“CAPE should influence portfolio construction, not dictate market timing.”
My current view is that U.S. equities look expensive, and CAPE is flashing a genuine long term warning, but I would not use it as a signal to call the next crash.
The S&P 500 CAPE is around 41 to 42, far above its long-term average and close to historically extreme levels. That suggests future real returns from U.S. equities could be much lower than investors have become accustomed to. Vanguard also currently describes U.S. equity valuations as effectively at their highest historical percentile.
I would be more comfortable with international and Canadian equities than simply owning more U.S. mega cap technology, although they are not immune to a correction. The Bank of Canada itself says Canadian equity valuations remain elevated and increasingly stretched compared with history. So I would call the US clearly expensive, Canada and many international markets less extreme, but not cheap. Continue Reading…
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Sure, proper diversification and asset allocation should allow you to Stay Calm, which happens to be the title of a new book published early in September by David Booth: he’s a founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA), one of the better indexing companies out there. I have finished reading it and plan to review it for MoneySense in the near future.
