All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Four ETFs to play the modern gold rush

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Pixabay/olenchic

• Gold is shining again; prices have surged to record highs this year and are forecast to climb further.

• Central banks are buying at a record pace, while investors seek protection from rising debt and currency debasement through gold ETFs.

• BMO’s gold ETF suite offers choice: ZGLD for stability, ZGD for growth, and ZJG for high-octane exposure.

Gold shines in 2025

By Erin Allen, Director, Online Distribution, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog) 

Gold’s reputation as an ancient store of value has rarely felt more modern.

The metal has been one of 2025’s standout performers among major asset classes, surging to record highs of around US$3,900 per ounce as of September 2025. The rally has been fueled by central bank buying, rising fiscal concerns, and investors seeking protection from a weakening U.S. dollar.

BMO Capital Markets recently lifted its gold price forecasts to an average of US$3,900 for the final quarter of 2025 and US$4,400 for 2026, reflecting what analysts describe as structural changes in the geopolitical and financial landscape¹.

The key driver: debt. With deficits in the U.S., Japan, and Europe ballooning, gold is increasingly being viewed not just as a safe haven, but as a strategic hedge against long-term currency debasement.

In this piece, we unpack what’s driving gold’s renewed strength, assess whether it’s sustainable, and outline ways investors can gain exposure through BMO ETFs from the physical metal itself to large and small-cap miners.

Central banks are quietly building reserves

One of the biggest tailwinds for gold has been record levels of central bank buying.

According to Reuters, central banks now hold 36,000 tonnes of gold, having added more than 1,000 tonnes annually for three consecutive years². This surge reflects a broad reassessment of what constitutes a safe asset.

Geopolitical instability and questions over the long-term stability of U.S. Treasuries have prompted central banks to diversify reserves. Gold has even overtaken the euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset, and for the first time since 1996, represents a larger share of reserves than Treasuries².

Chart 1: Foreign central banks hold more gold than Treasuries

Gold fell from 75% to 15% of reserves; Treasuries rose and surpassed gold holdings around 2023 for central banks.

The World Gold Council notes that while emerging markets typically hold 5–25% of their reserves in gold, developed economies hold more than 70%³. This steady official-sector accumulation underscores the global shift to tangible assets amid growing fiscal and political uncertainty.

Trade tensions and currency debasement fears

Gold’s strength also reflects what Bloomberg calls the “debasement trade.” As government debt piles up and fiscal discipline erodes, investors are moving out of major currencies and into alternative stores of value such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin⁴.

The U.S. dollar is down roughly 8% year-to-date, while gold continues to post record highs. Bloomberg notes that the current cycle echoes previous bouts of U.S. dollar weakness following the global financial crisis and periods of aggressive monetary easing⁴.

As George Heppel, Vice President, Commodity Research at BMO Capital Markets, explains, both cyclical and structural forces are converging¹:

“What we’re really seeing this year is the combination of a short-term thesis and a long-term thesis for holding gold, which has created a perfect storm for the metal. And naturally all of this increases concerns around sticky or growing inflation and the potential for negative real rates next year, which makes gold an attractive asset to be holding as an inflation hedge,” he says.

With U.S. debt climbing and political gridlock persisting, investors have reason to question the durability of fiat currencies. Gold, with no counterparty risk and a finite supply, has reasserted its role as a monetary anchor.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) – also known as the “Trump tax cuts” – will add an estimated US$19 trillion to U.S. debt over 30 years as written, or US$32 trillion if made permanent⁵.

“The passage of OBBBA will put tremendous pressure on the nation’s fiscal and economic health. Layered onto an already unsustainable outlook, the new law increases the risk of higher interest costs, slower growth, volatile markets, and reduced capacity to respond to future crises or invest in national priorities,” the CBO warned.

Chart 2: Debt soars under OBBBA

Projected U.S. debt-to-GDP rises sharply from 2025 to 2054, peaking at 219% under the highest scenario in the chart.

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Gold ETF demand surges to near-record levels

While central banks are leading the charge, investors are not far behind.

According to ETF.com, global gold ETFs have attracted US$44 billion in inflows this year, equivalent to roughly 443 metric tonnes of the metal⁶. That puts 2025 on track to rival the record US$49.5 billion set in 2020: the strongest year ever for gold-backed funds. Canada alone saw over $1B flow into commodity ETFs, largely driven by gold, according to National Bank of Canada’s September flows report.

Gold ETFs have become the preferred way to access gold, offering liquidity, transparency, and simplicity: all without the complications of physical storage.

Investment banks turn bullish

Institutional sentiment has followed suit.

BMO analysts believe the gold market is undergoing profound structural change, driven by debt, inflation, and de-dollarization. The bank has raised its long-term gold-price assumption to US$3,000 per ounce, up from US$2,200, placing it near the top of sell-side consensus¹. Continue Reading…

Avoid being trapped by a Mortgage as a FIRE Retiree: 5 Tips

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Can you really achieve Financial Independence when you still have a mortgage looming over you? Our insights will help you avoid feeling trapped by payments.

Image: Iryna for Adobe

By Dan Coconate

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Achieving Financial Independence early brings freedom, flexibility, and opportunities. But entering this new chapter requires thoughtful planning, especially when it comes to housing.

Avoid being trapped by a mortgage in early retirement by adopting a strategic approach that aligns with your financial goals. Whether you plan to downsize, relocate, or stay put, being proactive can preserve your hard-earned independence without a mortgage becoming a financial burden.

Below are five essential tips to guide you through managing your mortgage while protecting your financial independence.

Prioritize Paying off your Mortgage

Carrying a mortgage into Financial Independence can feel like dragging a heavy anchor. If you can, aim to own your home outright before retiring early. This eliminates one of the largest monthly expenses, giving you greater control over your budget. Many Canadians find success by accelerating their payments or making lump-sum contributions when possible. Debt-free living provides immense peace of mind and opens up new possibilities for pursuing the lifestyle you envisioned.

Consider Downsizing

Scaling down your home can offer financial and lifestyle benefits. Downsizing can free up home equity, reduce maintenance costs, and even lower property taxes. However, a well-thought-out plan ensures you don’t trade your current home for another financial burden.

It is possible to buy a new home before selling yours: you just need to be strategic about it. You also don’t have to limit yourself to smaller square footage; consider homes in less expensive areas or those better suited to your needs.

Explore Passive Income from Real Estate

Turning your property into a source of income can significantly offset costs. For instance, renting out a portion of your home or owning a rental property can transform your mortgage payment into a cash-flow opportunity. Many pursuing Financial Independence have increasingly tapped into short-term vacation rentals or long-term tenants to supplement their budgets. Proper research and planning ensure this approach aligns with your goals while providing notable financial advantages. Continue Reading…

Gold’s Shiny Moment — But I’m still not buying it

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By Alain Guillot
Special to Financial Independence Hub

It’s all over the news. The price of one ounce of gold is over $4,000

Millions of people — and even some governments — consider gold to be an investment. Good for them.

Ever since I became interested in investing, I’ve always dismissed the idea of owning gold. I still haven’t changed my mind, but I must admit: the gold bugs are having a good moment.

As of October 22nd, gold was trading at $4,067. That’s a 48% increase from one year ago when it was $2,744. Congratulations, gold bugs. Especially to my friend Michael who has been telling me to buy gold for the past 10 years.

It’s been an amazing run. If you had put your money into gold at the beginning of the millennium, in January 2000, you would have ended up with more money than if you had invested in the S&P 500. A lot more. About three times as much, as you can see from this chart.

And remember: the S&P 500 represents real businesses. Companies producing goods and services, generating profits, paying dividends, and giving you a claim on future cash flows — cash flows that are much larger today than 25 years ago. Gold, on the other hand, is — as British economist John Maynard Keynes put it — a barbarous relic. It produces nothing. It just looks shiny.

Yes, it has some industrial use in electronics, and millions of people all over the world wear it as jewelry. But economically speaking, it’s just a shiny object.

So how does this shiny object — which does nothing except sparkle — outperform one of the greatest bull markets in U.S. history? It boggles my mind.

Why I still prefer stocks

First, let me tell you why I prefer stocks.

The reason I prefer stocks over gold is simple: cash flow compounds.

When you own productive assets:

Companies earn profits.
They reinvest those profits to grow.
They pay dividends or buy back shares.
Your slice of the economic pie keeps expanding — even while you sleep.

That compounding effect is relentless. It’s like planting a tree that keeps bearing fruit year after year. Gold, on the other hand, just sits there. It doesn’t grow. It doesn’t reproduce. It doesn’t innovate. You’re entirely dependent on the next buyer being willing to pay more for it than you did.

That’s not investing. That’s speculation.

Why some like Gold

I admit it, gold does have a legitimate purpose:  it serves as insurance against currency collapse or geopolitical disasters. Imagine for a second that you live in a country with high inflation, like Venezuela. If you have gold, you don’t care that the local currency, the Bolivar, collapses. You are good, you have gold.

One possible reason for gold’s recent rise is central banks. Many of them have been buying gold as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Traditionally they buy U.S. dollars, but some of them are switching to gold because their relationship with the U.S. has been deteriorating. Continue Reading…

Adding DayMAX™ ETFs to Enhance Income and Diversification (HDIV/HYLD)

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Image courtesy Hamilton ETFs

By Hamilton ETFs

(Sponsor Blog: originally posted by Hamilton ETFs on Sept. 30, 2025)   

The Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Covered Call ETF (HDIV) and the Hamilton Enhanced U.S. Covered Call ETF (HYLD) portfolios have recently been modified slightly to introduce new positions in the DayMAX™ ETFs.

Over the years, portfolio changes within HDIV and HYLD have been made to meet their objective of providing attractive monthly income, while also considering improved diversification and other expected benefits for unitholders. In January 2024, HDIV and HYLD reached an important milestone with the full internalization of their holdings. This change removed all third-party ETFs, brought the top-level management fee of HDIV and HYLD down to 0% (subject to the fees of the underlying portfolio ETFs), and supported increases to monthly distributions.

Following the recent launch of the DayMAX™ ETFs, Canada’s first ETFs using zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options, a decision was made to introduce them to HDIV and HYLD, to help deliver higher yields and broader diversification.

DayMAX™ ETFs at a Glance

DayMAX™ ETFs are Canada’s first suite of ETFs to apply daily option strategies. By combining 0DTE options with modest 25% leverage, they aim to deliver higher and more frequent tax-efficient income. The lineup includes:

For a full overview, see DayMAX™ ETFs: Seize the Day.

Key Changes to HDIV and HYLD

The portfolio changes involved modestly reducing HDIV and HYLD’s exposure to select YIELD MAXIMIZER™ ETFs and adding positions in DayMAX™ ETFs, specifically CDAY, SDAY, and QDAY.

Both fund families are designed to generate high tax-efficient income, but they differ in how it is achieved. YIELD MAXIMIZER™ ETFs use longer-duration covered calls, while DayMAX™ ETFs employ Zero-Day-to-Expiration (0DTE) options, contracts that expire the same day they are written. This structure allows DayMAX™ ETFs to write options approximately 250 times per year, compared to 12 with traditional monthly contracts, creating more frequent opportunities to generate option premium income. By combining the longer-duration covered calls of YIELD MAXIMIZER™ ETFs with the daily options strategies of DayMAX™ ETFs, HDIV and HYLD are now diversified across time horizons and income streams, monetizing both monthly and daily volatility.

For the full list of updated holdings, please visit the fund pages: HDIV holdings and HYLD holdings.

Expected Benefits of Adding DayMAX™ ETFs to HDIV and HYLD

  1. Higher Yields: The introduction of DayMAX™ positions increases the internal portfolio yield of both HDIV and HYLD, supporting their primary objective of providing attractive monthly income.
  2. Increased Diversification: By adding DayMAX™ ETFs, HDIV and HYLD expand their holdings to broader exposure, increasing portfolio breadth.
  3. Improved Alignment to their Respective Markets: The sector weights of HDIV and HYLD are now closer to those of the Canadian and U.S. markets, respectively, as approximated by the sector weights of the S&P/TSX 60 and S&P 500. Continue Reading…

The Politics of Portfolio Management

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Image courtesy Pexels/Karola G.

By John De Goey, CFP, CIM

Special to Financial Independence Hub

The interplay between politics and economics has never been starker. We have an American President who is doing more to stick his nose into the affairs of those that are supposed to be at arms length than any of his predecessors ever dreamed.

Despite this, people who offer commentary on both the economy and capital markets (they are separate things) act as though what’s going on on Capitol Hill is so unremarkable that they conspicuously fail to work any acknowledgement of the dysfunction into their commentary.

Last week, I sat in on a webinar hosted by Jeff Schulze, CFA, who is managing director, head of economic and market strategy for Clearbridge Investments. In his presentation, Schulze noted that the S&P 500 is currently trading at 23 times forward earnings and that only the late 1990s saw a higher number. He added that there has been recent downward pressure on the federal funds rate and opined that the ‘one big beautiful bill’ will offer further fiscal stimulus down the road.

In a dashboard of 12 indicator variables, only one was flashing red (recession). Four were yellow (neutral) and seven were green (expansion).  He went on to opine that corporate profits don’t look recessionary. He concluded that a near-term recession is unlikely. I’m not disputing his economic evidence:  I’m simply noticing that there was not a word about political implications or developments. That silence strikes me as conspicuously odd.

There are many smart people who look closely at all manner of economic indicators who also look the other way regarding politics. As if they are not related. Why is that? They don’t talk about what’s going on Capitol Hill at all. The topic is taboo. It’s “polarizing.” Some even allege it’s beyond the purview of their mandate. I disagree.

EMH vs Active Management

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) posits that capital markets do an excellent job of digesting all available information (from all fields of endeavour) quickly and accurately. By synthesizing information into a consistent worldview, EMH implies that no one can reliably ‘beat the market’ through security selection or timing strategies.

The economic forecast offered by Clearbridge seemed predicated on the assumption that what’s going on in Washington is normal, but it also seemed predicated on market inefficiency since Schulze made multiple references to the need for active management. If the market is efficient, then it is already reliably taking the dysfunction in Washington into account. If, on the other hand, it is inefficient, then the vagaries of an unpredictable President stand out as being meaningful and should be noted. So if the conduct of the President is a meaningful consideration, why wasn’t it mentioned by a guy who implicitly rejects EMH? Continue Reading…