All posts by Financial Independence Hub

History lessons for managing Market Mishaps: 10 things you can do

By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If there’s a consolation prize for growing older, it’s that we get to learn an increasing number of history lessons first-hand.  Take, for example, my past post on lessons from the 2008–2009 bear market:  “What Should I Do – or NOT Do – During the Next Bear Market?”  One suggestion I made for when the next bear came along (now here), was to revisit the article and review the lessons history has to offer us … if only we will heed them.

Good idea.  The circumstances precipitating each event may vary, but the abiding lessons remain relevant every time.  Continuing the theme, today’s post combines a two-part series revisiting 10 points on how to navigate down markets and economic crises.

Since most of us prefer action to idleness, we’ll first cover the following five actions you can take to help. In part 2, right below Part 1 here on the Hub, we’ll cover five things not to do in troubled financial times.

#1:  Simplify

It’s hard to remain calm in turbulent times, when everything seems to be happening at once.  To help, try embracing simplicity, in your life and your financial plans.  That’s not always so easy!  Here are two pieces to assist:

Why Simplicity Beats Complexity

Simple Investing Isn’t Easy

#2:  Trust the evidence to avoid “the big mistake.”

Every investor yearns to buy low and sell high.  But many end up doing just the opposite in a crisis, assuming, “this time, it’s different.”  Here’s a post on using evidence-based history to avoid making this big (if common) mistake:

How Evidence Based Investing Saves Long-Term Wealth by Avoiding the Big Mistake

#3:  Control the controllable

When the world around us seems especially chaotic, it can feel as if we have no say over anything.  There are some greater forces we must leave to fate, but disciplined portfolio management needn’t be one of them, as described in this important January 2019 post:

The Best Year-End Commentary Almost Never Published

#4:  Rebalance back to plan 

Among the most important “controllables” is sticking to your personalized investment mix by rebalancing your portfolio back to plan during down markets. Because this typically calls for selling excess bonds and buying low-priced stocks, rebalancing can feel scary and counterintuitive at the time. Here’s a piece on why it’s still a sensible thing to do:

Rebalancing in Down Markets: Scary, But Important

#5:  Maintain an adequate lifestyle reserve

So, this last one was much better completed in advance.  Still, it’s worth using the current crisis to see how you feel about past efforts:  Are your current lifestyle reserves enough for now?  If the answer is no, make a note to revisit this piece in the future … for next time. Continue Reading…

Canadian market outpaces global developed markets in first half

By Dale Roberts, Cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

For the first half of 2021 the Canadian stock market outpaced markets in the developed world. Canadian stocks are up over 17%. Our stock market is well positioned for any inflationary environment or what they call the reflation trade. The TSX is one of the most economically sensitive global indices in the world. Inflation-sensitive (or inflation friendly) sectors comprise 73% of the TSX composite weight, compared with less than 40% of the S&P 500.

Financials, materials, industrials, energy, real estate and consumer discretionary are known to be those economically-sensitive sectors. The Canadian stock market is on a roll and ready to roll in the economic restart or grand reopening. From S&P Global …

We see the Canadian market outperformance in U.S. dollar terms. For American readers, and on my Seeking Alpha blog I suggested that U.S. investors consider Canadian stocks.

Canadian markets and U.S. markets make for a very nice tag team.

Canadians are ready for the grand reopening

A recent Bloomberg post offered that the Royal Bank of Canada’s spending tracker shows consumer activity in early June was well above pre-pandemic levels. Consumer confidence has been hovering at record highs for more than a month. Job posting data from Indeed Canada show restaurants are ramping up hiring. Mobility data from Google shows Canadians are doing more walking, driving and taking public transportation.

The GDP numbers put the economy on track for growth of at least 2 per cent annualized in the second quarter, down from 5.6 per cent in the first three months of 2021. The expansion is seen accelerating to a pace of 9.1 per cent in the third quarter, with a 6 per cent gain in the final three months of 2021, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists earlier this month. The Bank of Canada has projected growth of 3.5 per cent in the second quarter.

Recovering from recent weakness caused by lockdowns

Canada appears primed for the reopening. We lead the developed world in vaccination levels. Most of us (the lucky ones) are flush with cash thanks to pandemic savings. We can’t wait to travel and buy experiences.

Let’s cross our fingers for Canada and the rest of the world. The virus is always the wild card. My guess, after too much reading on the virus and vaccines, is that Canada will have an incredible Summer. The vaccines are effective, even against those variants of concern.

The 2021 first half time show

  • Canadian stocks are up 17.3%.
  • Canadian bonds are down 3.5%.

If we look south of the border, U.S. stocks are up near 12.3% in Canadian dollar terms. The Canadian dollar has been stronger in the first half of 2021 compared to the U.S. dollar.

  • International developed markets are up 6.5% in Canadian dollar terms.
  • Developing market stocks are up 6% also in Canadian loonies.

A typical Canadian 60/40 balanced portfolio is up about 5.2% to 6.2% if we look to the BMO one ticket ETF and the iShares asset allocation ETF.

If we look at the horizons asset allocation ETF we see that they continue with that drastic outperformance. HBAL is up over 8% in the first half of 2021. Those ETFs are also total return, tax-efficient.

The sector watch

Canadian REITs are up 21.5% according to the BMO equal weight ETF. On the REIT front you might also consider the actively managed CI REIT ETF – RIT.

Energy (oil and gas) producers are up 55% year to date. Of course I put investing in Canadian energy stocks on the table, some 110% ago. Congrats to readers who jumped on that faster that I did.

We’re holding iShares capped energy index ETF.

BMO’s equal weight oil and gas ETF is up 48%. That index includes some pipelines that will bring down the performance. Pipes don’t have the sensitivity or torque of the producers.

A must read …

Here is an absolute must read on the global energy reality. The author suggests that traditional energy might offer very favourable long term prospects. That might be good for investors. Not so good for the planet. Continue Reading…

How one Tawcan reader lives on $360,000 a year of dividends almost tax-free

 

By Bob Lai, Tawcan

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Long time readers will know that my wife and I are deploying a hybrid investing strategy – we invest in both dividend paying stocks and index ETFs. It is our goal to have our portfolio generating enough dividend income to cover our expenses. When this happens, we can call ourselves financially independent and live off dividends. By constructing our portfolio and selecting stocks that grow dividends each year organically, we believe our dividend income will continue to grow organically and keep up with inflation so we don’t have to ever touch our principal.

In the past, I have done a few simulations showing that living of dividends is possible and that dividend income is very tax-efficient in Canada. But simulations are full of assumptions and the numbers can change. Wouldn’t it be nice to showcase someone that is living off dividends already?

As luck would have it, Reader B, a fellow Canadian, recently mentioned that he retired in 2004 at age 55 and has been living off dividends since. I was very intrigued by B’s story when he told me that he worked as a civil engineer and his wife worked as an administrator.

I fell off the chair when he told me that he and his wife started investing with $10,000 and have amassed a dividend portfolio that generates over $360,000 in dividends each year! 

That’s $30,000 a month! Holy cow! 

While working, they had above average salary (B made ~$110k and B’s wife made ~$90k in today’s money). The high household income has certainly helped them build the dividend portfolio. But I believe a lot of it is due to B and his wife’s living modestly – not a lavish lifestyle but not penny pinching either.

After a bit of emailing exchanges, he agreed to answer my questions about his experience with living off dividends (it took a bit of convincing haha!). I truly believe B’s knowledge will help a lot of dividend growth investors.

Note: B’s original reply was over 11,000 words not including my comments (our email exchanges were very long too). I went through his answers and edited some parts out. For ease of reading, I have decided to split the post into two posts.

I hope you’ll enjoy this Q&A as much as I did.

Living off dividends – How I’m receiving $360k dividends a year and paying almost no taxes

Q1:  First of all, B, thank you for participating. It’s wonderful to learn that you and your wife have been retired since 2004 and have been dividend investors for over 36 years.

A: Thank you, Bob, for giving me the opportunity to share my 36 plus years of dividend investing experience and results with you and your readers. After following your blog, I realized that we and many others were on the same dividend investing path. The only difference being that I was a few more years along in the investing journey. I felt others might benefit from my experience with dividend investing.

You’re on the right path, Bob, and given your rate of progress to date by the time you reach my age (72) you will certainly attain your dividend income goals and likely well beyond. So I wanted to encourage you to continue along the dividend investing path. It’s a very sound and profitable strategy.

I’m more than happy to share with others a few of my ideas on dividend investing and how it can be done in a tax-effective manner.

Q2:  How long have you been investing in dividend paying stocks?

A: I started investing in stocks in 1985. After the initial period of learning the ropes and finding my way in the investing and stock market world, it was only in 1990 after subscribing to a weekly investing newsletter that I finally saw the investing light and found that dividend investing was right for us.

So I guess you could say I’ve been traveling along the dividend paying stock road for some 31 years now. And we’ve been comfortably supplementing our lifestyle with an ever increasing stream of dividends since we retired in 2004 to the present day.

Diving into the dividend portfolio

Q3:  How much dividend income are you getting each year? Can you provide a detailed breakdown across non-registered and registered accounts? 

A: As of April 30, 2021, my wife and I are receiving $360,000 in combined pre-tax dividend income annually – that’s $30,000 per month – and still growing.

Our combined assets are distributed as follows:

  • RRIFs: 8.2%
  • TFSAs: 1.9%
  • Non-Reg Dividend Income Accounts: 85.5%
  • Other Short-Term Liquid Assets: 4.4%

So the amount we have in registered tax-sheltered plans totals 10.1% and is decreasing annually in compliance with RRIF mandatory withdrawal requirements.

These figures illustrate a problem that can develop gradually over time – a severe imbalance between registered and non-registered  accounts caused by the low contribution limits governing registered savings plans. Allowable contributions to registered plans are capped.

If one’s savings levels exceed the cap limits by a significant amount, then the balance between registered and non-registered accounts can tilt heavily towards the latter. The effect is that registered plans then become less and less significant in the overall account mix. This unbalanced effect means that we now have only 10.1% of our assets in tax sheltered accounts while 85.5% is held in “unsheltered” non-registered accounts.

So that makes it critical to find ways to ensure that holdings in non-registered accounts are as tax efficient as possible. The most optimum way to achieve tax-efficiency under such conditions is to focus on buying and holding Canadian dividend paying stocks in non-registered accounts.

We will continue to shift portions of our “other” assets toward Canadian dividend income as we go forward.

Our non-registered accounts are producing the entire $360K dividend income stream referenced above. The annual yield on market value is 4.2%. The actual yield on cost is much higher than the market yield. Our portfolio has returned nicely over the years.

Our annual mandatory RRIF withdrawals are the minimum required by age and proceeds are immediately re-invested in more dividend stocks and held in our non-registered accounts. We do not touch our TFSAs and contribute the maximum allowable amount each year.

Tawcan: My jaw dropped when you told me about your $360k a year dividend income. That is absolutely amazing! 

At 4.2% yield that means the market value of your portfolio is over $8.5M! Obviously your yield on cost would be much higher than that given you have invested over 30 years. Regardless, I’m betting that the cost basis of your non-registered portfolio is in the multi-million dollars range. It is very impressive considering you and your wife only made around $200k a year in today’s money.  

The Dividend Investing Philosophy

Q4:  Can you give us an idea of your general approach to dividend investing?

A: My dividend investment philosophy can be summed up as: “To buy gradually over time, high-quality Canadian tax-efficient dividend paying stocks and hold them indefinitely.”

I buy stocks gradually in roughly equal amounts and spread the purchases over time. I never invest large lump sums all at once. I’ll take an initial position in a stock, usually in the $10K value range, and then return again at an opportune price point and buy some more (i.e. dollar cost-averaging).

High quality stocks are selected – conservative large cap stocks – most often dividend aristocrats – minimum 2% yield with the odd exception for superior growth stocks or those with growth potential. Great focus is placed on buying dividend aristocrats and stocks in the TSX Composite 60 Index with a nod toward following the Beat the TSX strategy.

Tawcan: Funny B mentioned the BTSX strategy. Check out Matt, the brain behind Beating the TSX strategy, and his family’s amazing story about traveling the world with 4 kids

I exclusively buy only Canadian stocks – no USA stocks – none – no exceptions. The only US stocks I would consider are those that have a TSX listing and can be purchased in Canadian dollars for tax efficiency reasons.

Tawcan: It’s interesting that you only hold top Canadian dividend stocks and no US or international dividend paying stocks or ETFs. 

All our stock buys must be held in non-registered accounts – contributions can not be made to RRIFs and our TFSA contribution room is maxed out. My wife and I also invest in REITs and they require special attention (more on that later).

All stocks we buy must pay a dividend. As mentioned, I usually insist on a 2% yield or higher – but not too high. One never wants to over-reach for yield, which is often the warning sign for an impending dividend cut. If a stock does eliminate its dividend, then it’s automatically gone from our portfolios and we move on to another stock that does pay a reliable dividend.

On very rare occasions, it may be advisable/necessary to sell a stock for the following reasons:

  1. When a stock’s prospects have taken a downward turn.
  2. In the event of a takeover bid – friendly or otherwise – one often has little choice but to sell.
  3. For tax-loss selling purposes. We seldom pay any capital gains income tax at all. When we do realize a capital gain from a stock sale, then we’ll sell another stock (or partially sell) to realize an offsetting capital loss. But tax-loss selling is not usually done at year-end along with “the herd.” After waiting the mandatory 30 days and if the stock remains a solid investment, then we will often buy the stock back – hopefully at a lower price.

Under a buy and hold strategy, there is not a lot of opportunity for capital gains. By not selling, no capital gain is realized and so capital gains tax can be deferred indefinitely.

On the other hand, dividend income can be extremely tax efficient when you are income splitting between two people. We’ll get into the specifics a bit later.

Q5:  You mentioned that REITs require special attention. What did you mean by that?

A: Not all REITs are equal in terms of tax efficiency when held in a non-registered account where taxes on REIT distributions can vary from 0% to 53.53% (in Ontario). Therefore, the most tax-efficient place to hold a REIT is in a registered account. Continue Reading…

Whose Bias is it, anyway?

 

One of the great benefits of living in a free society is that people can have legitimate differences of opinion about the meaning of information and best courses of action.  In this space and, more recently, on social media, I have taken to pointing out the small army of credible sources who concur with my viewpoint that markets are frothy and likely headed for a significant tumble.  Not surprisingly, there are plenty of folks who think things look rosy and that there are no significant storm clouds on the horizon at all.  Obviously, we can’t both be right.

What I find interesting is that I have critics who allege that I am guilty of confirmation bias, a behavioural economics term that suggests people only seek out evidence that supports their pre-existing viewpoint.  While I certainly acknowledge that that might be possible, I find it interesting that the people making the accusation don’t recognize that the same allegation could be levied against them just as easily.  Both sides of the ongoing debate about what might be in store on the capital markets horizon could be accused of looking primarily, perhaps even exclusively, at information that supports their preferred narrative.  How exactly does one prove that one’s thinking has been fulsome and comprehensive? Continue Reading…

Mexico: US-style Living at one third the Cost

Chacala Beach, Nayarit, Mexico. Photo credit Billy Kaderli.

By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Mexico, that constantly media-bashed country to the south of the US, might be your better option for retirement.

One million Americans already call Mexico their home and it’s amazingly easy to obtain your residency visa for full-time living, most receiving theirs in a matter of days.

Snowbirds could easily add another million visitors to this number and can stay 6 months on a no-cost visitors visa!

With its proximity to the United States, both US and Mexican airlines offer non-stop flights to and from many destinations in the US. Or, of course, you could drive. So, visiting family or utilizing Medicare is much easier than if you were to live elsewhere overseas.

There are lots of reasons why Mexico is a great choice for retirement, so let’s list some:

Cost of Living

Mexico has everything that the US offers – along with a better lifestyle – at a fraction of the cost.

The Dollar exchange rate makes for attractive affordability.

The cost of a beer is 30 Pesos or about $1.50 at a bar. A lakeside lunch of grilled salmon with wine or margarita as your beverage plus a generous tip runs about $11USD per person.

Commonly used medicines at pharmacies won’t break the bank, and a consultation with a cardiologist or a surgeon is less than $40USD.

More on Medical Care

Many US doctors train in major Mexican hospitals where the “care” is still part of the healthcare industry.

Most doctors here – including specialists – are easily available through phone, WhatsApp or email and most speak English. Highly skilled dentists are abundant with oral surgeons performing teeth implants for a price less than your dental copay back home.

Assisted Living options run the gamut. Pricing for private rooms in a traditional Mexican mansion with gardens, comfort dogs, meals included, internet, laundry service and social activities and a driver to take you to appointments are about $2,000USD per month.

Housing

Here in Chapala, Mexico, all price ranges are available for both rentals and home ownership. For as little as $300 USD a month you can rent a one-bedroom furnished apartment or you can purchase a house in any of the towns which dot the lake for many times that amount.

Maids and gardeners are commonplace, and the price for plumbers, carpenters and electricians run about the same as a Lakeside lunch. Continue Reading…

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