All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Fed Watch: The “New” normal is really just the “Old” normal

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By Kevin Flanagan, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of 2019 is now in the books. While the result did not deviate from the market’s expectations on the rate front, the policy statement did provide further evidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is going about things in a different way than investors have been accustomed to over the last few years. Is this decision-making process the “new” normal? No, it is really just the “old” normal, or how the Fed typically conducts monetary policy when the Fed Funds Rate target is not zero.

Since the FOMC began raising rates in December 2015, and picked up the pace during the last two years, the plan was to move the Fed Funds Rate target away from zero, i.e., to normalize policy. Now, with the upper band of the policy rate target at 2.50%, or close to what is considered a neutral rate, the voting members have achieved their goal. So instead of raising rates in a somewhat gradual, but more importantly, predictable manner, further possible rate hikes will hinge upon upcoming economic data. In other words, monetary policy has become data-dependent. This is how the FOMC typically went about its business prior to the global financial crisis/great recession.

With inflation below the Fed’s 2.0% target, the policymakers can afford to be patient and, in the words of Chair Powell, “flexible” as well. Certainly, the decline in risk assets as 2018 came to a close created an environment of tighter financial conditions. The question now is whether that development had any visible, longer-lasting impact on economic growth.

Waters will be muddy for a while

So, where do things stand as the markets look ahead? Unfortunately, the waters will be muddy for a while. Due to the partial government shutdown, both the Fed and the bond market have not been receiving any fresh insights on the economy. The only exceptions have been the Bureau of Labor Statistics and private vendors. Continue Reading…

5 mistakes people make buying Term Insurance

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By Jane Rupert

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

An essential component of planning for the future involves planning your finances. After all, when your career finally falls into place, your funds need to be managed appropriately too. How you save, invest, spend and leverage your income can help with deciding how secure (or not secure) your finances for the coming years will be. In times like these, when the avenues and options are aplenty, it shouldn’t be too difficult to choose the right options for yourself. You can also do research on finding recommended independent agents who can help you get the right insurance policy for your need.

However, making mistakes when you try to work things out on your own is only human, and that’s why we’re here to throw light on some mistakes that you can avoid.

When we say mistakes, we’re talking particularly about Term Life Insurance. Term Life Insurance involves selecting the term or duration for which you will be paying your premium and also allowing your policy to mature and grow in monetary value. Needless to say, the longer you let it mature, the larger your policy amount is going to be when you decide to cash it in or pass it on to your family. That being said, it’s a given that we believe in the importance of taking up a life insurance policy. So, let’s also throw some light on mistakes that you should avoid making when you decide to invest in one.

1.) Being hasty

There are tons of policies and financial companies that you can choose from, so why be hasty about it? A common mistake some people make is to go for the first policy that is presented to them, without doing their own research and weighing out the alternatives in the market. Now, this could lead to you overpaying for your policy or taking up too many riders, without deriving any actual, significant benefit from it. Hence, step one is to always check out multiple, get instant term life insurance quotes, make a proper comparison and then decide which policy best suits your requirement.  

2.) Buying small

For some of us, an insurance policy is a way to make up for deficit income. Whether it’s because of disability or unemployment, it’s important to have something as a backup to help you out in times of financial crisis. However, a common mistake people make is to take a policy that is only just enough to make up for their income, without considering the long-term repercussions of it. Taking a small policy amount also means that it won’t last you too long, and if a sudden medical emergency arises, for example, you might burn through that amount in no time. Taking a larger policy amount is a smart move because it ensures that you have a broader net to fall on if times get rough. Continue Reading…

Three times you might want to change your asset allocation

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By Steve Lowrie

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

2018 was a tough year for many investments: including equities, which delivered negative returns.”  As we covered here, periodic negative returns are nothing new. But it’s been a while since they’ve lined up with a calendar year: not since 2011 here in Canada.

I suppose it’s human nature to want to try to avoid the dive by heading for higher ground. So, when markets trend down, this FAQ heats up: Is it time to change my asset allocation?

In past posts, like this one here at the Hub, I’ve generally advised sticking with your investment plans, including your asset allocation, rather than reacting to market volatility. But that doesn’t mean you can’t ever change your asset allocation. Today, let’s cover three times you may want to.

1.) If you’ve built your portfolio on shaky ground

If your current “allocation” is actually just a random assortment of investments, there’s never a bad time to establish an underlying plan to guide the way, and to alter your allocations accordingly. Especially if your current portfolio is high-priced and premised on active management (trying to dodge in and out of winning/losing markets or securities), the sooner you can transition into a solidly built portfolio, the better. In this piece, I covered how to determine and document your asset allocation with an Investment Policy Statement.

2.) If your financial circumstances have changed

What if you receive a financial windfall such as an inheritance, or you encounter a hardship such as losing your job? If your financial “landscape” changes, it makes sense to revisit your asset allocation and adjust it if needed, to reflect any changes in your personal financial goals, and any increased or decreased capacity to take on investment risks.

3.) If your life has changed

Even if your financial circumstances haven’t changed, your life may. Marriage, divorce or widowhood; the birth of a child; a career change or retirement. These are the sorts of events that might call for a fresh look at whether your current asset allocations continue to reflect your evolving needs.

You may have noticed a theme here: If particulars in your own life change, it can make good sense to alter your asset allocation to reflect your revised circumstances.

The flip side of this coin holds true too: Avoid changing your asset allocation just because the markets are heading up, down or sideways.

So, if your annual performance reports had you seeing red at year-end, please ask yourself: Has anything in your own life changed, or are you reacting to market mood swings? If you’ve built a plan and it still reflects your goals, your best bet is to stick with it. That still doesn’t guarantee success, but it still gives you your greatest odds.

Steve Lowrie holds the CFA designation and has 25 years of experience dealing with individual investors. Before creating Lowrie Financial in 2009, he worked at various Bay Street brokerage firms both as an advisor and in management. “I help investors ignore the Wall and Bay Street hype and hysteria, and focus on what’s best for themselves.” This blog originally appeared on his site on Dec. 1, 2018 and is republished here with permission. 

Can you afford to launch a startup? Yes!

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By Emily Roberts

(Sponsored Content)

There is a common misconception that starting a business is an expensive proposition. You need equipment, a website, an office, and staff to get the venture off the ground. Sure, in some instances, you will need all that and more: but there are ways to minimize your expenditure and secure funding to help you get going.

Why start a business?

Whether you have been ‘packaged out’ or are looking to transition into a new career, there has never been a better time to start a business. Working for yourself gives you unprecedented freedom. You can work flexible hours, from home if you choose, and any profit you make is yours. For anyone tired of working for someone else, while they reap the benefits, there’s a lot to like about being your own boss.

Financial support for entrepreneurs

There is a ton of support available for entrepreneurs. Fundera recently compiled a list of 105 different ways to secure money for your small business. You might not be eligible for all of them, but it’s worth taking a look.

Look for free loans first. These don’t need to be repaid, so it’s a win-win for you. If your startup is in a tech, science, or health niche, there are Federal small business grants available. These include the Small Business Technology Transfer Program and the Small Business Innovation Research Program. Check grants on offer in your state too, as there is less competition for state funding.

To check the full list of available grants and funding packages, click here.

Tools and equipment

Many businesses need tools and equipment to get started. For example, if you want to set up a handyman business, you’ll need a truck, basic tools, and possibly gardening equipment. Some of these you’ll likely already have, but you may need to purchase other items. Continue Reading…

ETF investors sitting comfortably in the Balanced Growth sweet spot

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By Dale Roberts
Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In October I penned this blog post, The Balanced Growth Portfolio. The Investor’s Sweet Spot. A Balanced Growth model with typically be in the area of 70-80% in stocks and the remainder in bonds. It’s a growth portfolio, but with a modest allocation to bonds to reduce the price risks. As I often write, those bonds work like shock absorbers through market volatility or market corrections. They help smooth out the ride.

I’d call this model the sweet spot as it might offer the best balance of very good total return potential with less risk compared to an all-stock portfolio. It many periods it will deliver the best risk-adjusted returns.

In fact, in many periods the Balanced Growth portfolio model can deliver the same returns as an all-stock model, while taking on less risk. Stock market corrections become the great equalizer. The pure equity model will certainly outperform in a long bull market run, but then the stock market corrections come along and bring the stocks down to earth while the Balanced Growth model then moves into the lead. They might play a game of tortoise and the hare for many years or decades.

See my above post link for charts on that comparison.

Let’s look at the ETF holdings of Canadians

Industry statistics are published by the Canadian ETF Association. You can access the December 2018 report and commentary here.

The chart at the top of this blog shows the monthly breakdown of assets held in ETFs. Current Month is month’s end December 2018, Previous Month is November, of course. Keep in mind that the assets will be affected by the total inflows and outflows (purchases and sells) and also the market variance. The stock markets fell in December and that will bring down the total stock assets number.

 

We see that Canadian ETF investors are in that sweet spot of near 70% equities and 30% bonds. And the good news is that while the stock markets were pulling their little December hissy fit, investors were adding new monies to their ETFs: both Fixed Income and Equities. And you’ll see that Canadian ETF investors are acquiring within the Balanced Growth band.

We see that investors did respond to the stock market price risks and moved more monies into the fixed income side of the ledger in December. No problem there. Sometimes Mr. Market gives us a little love tap and reminds us that markets can go down in a hurry. We get a very considerate warning shot across the bow. On that here’s my Seeking Alpha article from one year ago Mr. Volatility is Asking You, Taunting You – So You Wanna Go?

Many of us might be getting a little flabby with respect to our risk taking ability. We have not been tested much in the last decade coming out of the Great Recession. We should always remember that markets can be volatile and they can fall by some 30%, 40% or 50% or more in a major market correction. I reminded readers of those risks in my first post to the Tangerine Forward Thinking blog with Why You Might Still Want Bonds In Your Investment Portfolio.

Ensure that you know your risk tolerance level and that your portfolio is best matched to you risk tolerance level. Have a more than solid investment plan but consider that emotional risk. From that Seeking Alpha article and offered by the most ferocious heavyweight boxer of all time, Mike Tyson …

Everyone has a plan until I punch them in the face.

Yes, Mr. Market may punch you in the face one day. Are you ready? I can take a punch in the market and in the boxing ring. I grew up with a boxing ring in the backyard so that my older brother could practice punching someone in the face as he prepared for and kept in fighting shape for playing Junior ‘hockey’. He only ever lost one hockey fight. Me and my face take full credit. Mr. Market has thrown a few punches too.

All said, be prepared.

How are Robo-Advised Canadians putting monies to work? 

Keep in mind that many investors will create their own ETF Model Portfolios through their discount brokerage. But of course there’s a massive move to the Canadian Robo Advisors, where investors can access digital and human advice that will then lead to the recommendation of risk-appropriate ETF portfolios. That risk assessment is key. Continue Reading…