Jeremy Siegel recently wrote, with Jeremy Schwartz, the sixth edition of his popular book, Stocks for the long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies.
I read the fifth edition nearly a decade ago, and because the book is good enough to reread, this sixth edition gave me the perfect opportunity to read it again.
I won’t repeat comments from my first review. I’ll stick to material that either I chose not to comment on earlier, or is new in this edition.
Bonds and Inflation
“Yale economist Irving Fisher” has had a “long-held belief that bonds were overrated as safe investments in a world with uncertain inflation.” Investors learned this lesson the hard way recently as interest rates spiked at a time when long-term bonds paid ultra-low returns. This created double-digit losses in bond investments, despite the perception that bonds are safe. Siegel adds “because of the uncertainty of inflation, bonds can be quite risky for long-term investors.”
The lesson here is that inflation-protected bonds offer lower risk, and long-term bonds are riskier than short-term bonds.
Mean Reversion
While stock returns look like a random walk in the short term, Figure 3.2 in the book shows that the long-term volatility of stocks and bonds refutes the random-walk hypothesis. Over two or three decades, stocks are less risky than the random walk hypothesis would predict, and bonds are riskier.
Professors Robert Stombaugh and Luboš Pástor disagree with this conclusion, claiming that factors such as parameter and model uncertainty make stocks look riskier a priori than they look ex post. Siegel disagrees with “their analysis because they assume there is a certain, after inflation (i.e., real) risk-free financial instrument that investors can buy to guarantee purchasing power for any date in the future.” Siegel says that existing securities based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have flaws. CPI is an imperfect measure of inflation, and there is the possibility that future governments will manipulate CPI. Continue Reading…
Today’s headline is borrowed from a Tweet that you’ll find later in this post. That notion is so bang on and perhaps summarizes what has been going on for a year or three, and well, forever.
The investors and portfolio managers that have been scared off by the risks have been treated to some level of underperformance, or what we’d call opportunity costs. Greater returns were available for those who stayed invested and stuck to their investment plan. The economy and stock markets have been fooling most everyone. Bears sound smart. Bulls make money.
In a Tweet (below) you’ll find the recent and very generous returns for U.S. and Canadian stocks.
Awareness is preparedness
In this blog I often shine a light on risk. Awareness is preparedness. The idea is to reinforce the basic investment truth that we have to invest within our risk tolerance level. And the fact is, most investors take on too much risk. Studies show that when we enter recessions and severe stock market corrections most investors (or too many) will end up buying high and selling low. Essentially doing the opposite of how we build investment wealth over time.
Use the awareness of risk to embrace a portfolio that aligns with your risk tolerance level so that you can stay fully invested. We don’t use risk and the discussion of risk to time the markets. The last few years have offered a pronounced demonstration that guess work does not work.
Tax time can be overwhelming, but a financial advisor can help simplify the process and ensure you’re maximizing all the credits and deductions available to you and your family. While financial planning should take place year-round, there are important considerations, strategies and dates that should be top of mind at year-end to help reduce your taxes and keep more of your hard-earned money in your pocket.
Year-End Tax Planning Checklist for Individuals
• Saving for retirement with a Retirement Savings Plan (RSP)
Most of us know making an RSP contribution is generally a sound decision if you have unused room available. Once you’ve decided to contribute settled on how much, you should then determine whether it’s best to contribute to your own plan or a spousal RSP for your spouse or common-law partner. Making a spousal contribution before the end of the year rather than waiting until the first 60 days of next year could affect who pays tax on eventual withdrawals.
Planning your retirement income
Speak with a financial advisor to discuss retirement income options, including basing your Retirement Income Fund (RIF) withdrawals on the age of your younger spouse or common-law partner. Determine if you qualify for the pension income credit, which may allow you to significantly reduce federal taxes (provincial credit amounts vary) on the first $2,000 of your pension or RIF income. If you have or will reach age 71 this year and have unused RSP contribution room, you should make your RSP contribution by December 31 or you may lose that option.
Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSAs)
You should always consider contributing to a TFSA to take advantage of tax-sheltered savings. The contribution limit for 2023 is $6,500 and rising to $7,000 for next year, but don’t forget about any unused contribution room that is carried forward from year to year. Gifting money to your spouse or common-law partner to make their contribution can also provide additional tax advantages. The sooner you contribute to a TFSA, the faster your investments can grow tax-free. Meanwhile, if a TFSA withdrawal is in your plans, doing so before year-end rather than early in the new year gives you back your contribution room a lot sooner.
Registered Education Savings Plans (RESPs)
Contributions to an RESP entitle you to a Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG) of up to $500 per year, or $1,000 if there is unused grant room from previous years. If you’ve accumulated even more than $1,000 of room, making an RESP contribution prior to year-end will allow for more combined grants this year and next. Speak with a financial advisor to help you maximize your CESG.
Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP)
The Home Buyers’ Plan allows you to borrow funds from your RSP to purchase your first home, so long as you purchase the home before October 1 of the year following the withdrawal and all withdrawals are made in the same calendar year. Repayment of the withdrawals begins two years following the year of the withdrawal. Delaying your withdrawal to next year rather than late this year will allow more time to purchase a new home, make more withdrawals if necessary and delay the start of required repayments.
Considering taxes when realizing gains or losses on your investments
If you have or will realize capital gains in 2023, consider triggering capital losses prior to the end of the year. Losses can offset gains, reducing any taxes that could otherwise be associated with those gains. If your 2023 capital losses exceed your capital gains, they can be applied against gains in any of the previous three years to help you recover taxes paid on those gains. Speak to your financial advisor prior to repurchasing any investment you sold at a loss, as doing so too quickly puts the loss at risk of being denied.
Key Strategies to Enhance Charitable Giving
December is synonymous with the season of giving, but many Canadians miss out on giving in the most tax-efficient way. Whether it’s a continuation of donations made throughout the year or an initial donation, there are several strategies to consider when donating prior to year-end.
Maximize the value of donation tax credits
The first $200 of donations you claim on your tax return receive a lower donation tax credit rate than donations claimed above $200 (except in Alberta). To limit donations subject to the lower $200 credit rate outside Alberta, consider bringing forward donations planned early in the new year and make them prior to December 31st. Not only will the charity get the funds sooner, but you’ll get the tax benefit a full year earlier. Continue Reading…
The 60/40 portfolio has been long considered the prototypical balanced portfolio. This strategy consists of the portfolio investing 60% of its capital to equities and the remaining allocation of 40% in fixed income.
The two segments in the portfolio each have its unique purpose: equities have provided growth and fixed income has historically provided stability and income. When combined, it allowed a portfolio to have stable growth, while generating steady income.
In the last decade, however, the 60/40 portfolio has been challenged on two fronts. The first has been due to the lack of yield available in the bond market, as interest rates have grinded to all-time lows. As a result, many looked to the equity market to generate higher dividends in order to make up for the yield shortfall left by fixed income.
The second shortcoming of the 60/40 portfolio has been the higher correlation between bonds and equities experienced in recent years, which has limited the ability for balanced portfolios to minimize volatility.
However, the resurgence of bond yields in the recent central bank tightening cycle has breathed new life into the 60/40 portfolio. Suddenly, bonds are generating yields not seen since the pre-Great Financial Crisis era. A higher sustained interest rate environment also means a slower growth environment; that means equity risk premiums (the expected excess returns, needed to compensate investors to take on additional risk above risk-free assets) will be lower. This means fixed income may look more attractive than equities on a risk-adjusted basis, which may mean more investors may allocate to bonds in the coming years. Fixed income as a result, will play a crucial role in building portfolios going forward and its resurgence has revived the balanced portfolio.
Investors can efficiently access balanced portfolios through one-ticket asset allocation ETFs. These solutions are based on various risk profiles. In addition to the asset allocation ETFs, we also have various all-in-one ETFs that are built to generate additional distribution yield for income/dividend-oriented investors. Investors in these portfolios only pay the overall management fee and not the fees to the underlying ETFs.
How to use All-in-One ETFs
Standalone investment: All-in-one ETFs are designed by investment professionals and regularly rebalanced. Given these ETFs hold various underlying equity and fixed income ETFs, they are well diversified, and investors can regularly contribute to them over time. Continue Reading…
With people living longer than ever, retirement now makes up a significant portion of our lives. Could it be the perfect time to start a business? Here are the pros and cons of becoming an entrepreneur in your golden years.
Important Considerations
Entrepreneurship can enrich your life in immeasurable ways. However, before launching your own business, you should consider the following challenges.
Financial Risk
According to a 2018 study by Harvard Business Review, older entrepreneurs tend to run more successful companies. The businesses that financially thrive in their first five years are, on average, started by 45-year-old entrepreneurs, probably due to this cohort’s experience and willingness to take risks.
Although the odds may be in your favor, it’s still important to consider whether you have the capital to run a business — and to pick up the pieces if it doesn’t work out. Over 80% of small businesses fail because of cash flow problems. Decide how much money you’re willing to invest and potentially lose in your new venture.
Time Commitment
How do you envision retirement? If you’re considering entrepreneurship, you’re probably not the type of person who wants to lounge around sipping drinks on a beach.
If you do want a more relaxed retirement, however, you might find the time commitment required to run a business overwhelming. Entrepreneurs often put in long days to get their businesses up and running. Even after your company gets off the ground, you may find yourself having to work longer hours than you were expecting.
Of course, as a business owner, you also have a lot of sway over how big you want to let your venture get. If things start getting out of hand, you can always scale back.
Social Security Deductions
If you’re younger than full retirement age in the U.S. — which can range from 66-67, depending on when you were born — becoming an entrepreneur during retirement can affect your Social Security benefits.
Before you reach full retirement age, the IRS will deduct one dollar from your benefit payments for every two dollars you earn above $21,240. The year you reach full retirement age, the IRS will subtract one dollar from your Social Security benefits for every three dollars you earn above $56,520.
Consider whether these fees will impact your ability to retire comfortably. You might find you’re earning more money from your business than you would from Social Security anyway, so the deductions may be of little consequence.
Benefits of Entrepreneurship
Although it may be challenging, starting your own business will likely enrich your life. Here are some ways it could positively affect your retirement: Continue Reading…
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