Inflation is coming down in Canada and the U.S. And one can argue that the rate hikes have had little effect. After all, Canadians and Americans are spending money, and employment is strong. The economy has been very resilient. Perhaps inflation was transitory after all, caused by the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine. This is not the traditional inflation fight script. The economic soft landing argument is getting more support. Was inflation transitory?
Total inflation in Canada is back ‘on target’ in the 2% to 3% range.
According to Statistics Canada, the June slowdown was driven primarily by a year-over-year drop of 21.6% in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, the largest contributors to the rise in consumer prices are food costs — which rose 9.1% in June — and mortgage interest costs (up 30.1%).
It’s likely a very good guess that rates are staying higher for longer. The bond market is certainly suggesting that as well.
The 5-year remains elevated.
Fixed-rate mortgage holders will likely be resetting at higher borrowing costs over the next 2 to 3 years – adding several hundred dollars a month to the typical mortgage payment. Of course, that takes money out of the economy and money that would have been spent on goods and services.
Next year may be sunnier than forecast
In the Globe & Mail, Ian McGugen offered a very interesting post. Ian looks to one of the most optimistic economists, and that is a growing group.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist at investment banker Goldman Sachs, has set himself apart from the crowd in recent months by declaring that the United States will not sink into a recession. Continue Reading…
Are you looking for a smart and easy way to achieve financial independence?
Investing in a franchise may be the perfect solution. Franchises offer an established system with great potential for success and are a great way to get into the world of business ownership.
With the proper support, a franchise can help you reach your financial goals and provide a secure future for you and your family. This blog post will discuss why investing in a franchise is a great way to achieve financial independence.
The Benefits of Investing in a Franchise
Investing in a franchise is a smart way to achieve financial independence because it has many benefits. Firstly, you will have a low-risk, high-reward investment. Franchisors provide an established business model that has been proven to work. You also have access to resources and support from the franchisor, including training, marketing, and ongoing assistance. Building a resilient business with a proven track record increases your chances of success. Finding franchise opportunities is relatively easy, as many franchisors are actively looking for new investors.
● Low-Risk, High-Reward Investment
Investing in a franchise is a low-risk, high-reward investment opportunity. Franchisees benefit from a proven business model, an established customer base, and ongoing support from the franchisor. The initial investment required to start a franchise may seem high, but the risk is significantly lower compared to starting a business from scratch.
● Established Business Model
The established business model is one of the biggest advantages of investing in a franchise. This means the franchise has already figured out what works and what doesn’t, saving you the time, money, and effort required to establish a business from scratch. Franchisors have honed their processes and systems to create a winning formula that franchisees can easily replicate. This saves you time and effort and ensures that you start your business on a solid foundation with a proven track record of success.
● Access to Resources and Support
Investing in a franchise comes with the unique advantage of accessing a network of resources and support. Franchisors provide extensive training and support to ensure franchisees have the necessary knowledge and skills to run their businesses effectively. Continue Reading…
One of the biggest trends in the market, thus far in 2023, has been the flurry of inflows ($AUM) into money market and short-term fixed income. We have seen a “great migration to cash” as investors are literally being paid, handsomely, to park cash on the sidelines. We are now 6 months through the year and flows into the short end do not seem to be slowing down. Thus far YTD, we have seen $5.7bln flow into money market and ultra short-term fixed income ETFs, accounting for over 50% of all flows into fixed income ETFs in 2023 (Source: NBCFM ETF).
Money Market and Ultra Short-Term Fixed Income: after years of being a forgotten segment of the market, how and why are they the leading asset gatherer?
With the accelerated path of rising rates, we have seen in the short end of the yield curve; (the overnight rate) the yield curve inverted. An inversion of the yield curve is caused when shorter-term rates rise faster than longer-term rates. Generally, this is something that occurs but reverses quite quickly.
Not this time. We are currently in a period of a prolonged yield curve inversion, which could be a leading indicator of economic weakness to come. This inversion is exactly what these money market and ultra short-term fixed income investors are looking to cash in on. Lock in higher shorter-term rates and take advantage of the inverted yield curve.
For too long, investors were forced to move outside of investment grade bonds and further out the yield curve to achieve their yield and return expectations. The market has shifted that paradigm on its head and allowed investors to truly get paid to wait on the sidelines in cash.
Current Canadian Yield Curve
Source: Bloomberg, June 30, 2023
The short end appears to be the sweet spot for many investors, in terms of risk and reward.
Risk: by targeting the short end of the curve, investors will be minimizing their interest rate sensitivity (Duration exposure) and will generally be buying bonds that will be maturing in less than 1 year. Buying investment grade bonds, issued by high quality issuers, this close to maturity provides investors with downside protection as all these bonds will mature at par.[1]
Reward: Achieve a higher yield to maturity than further out the curve. Allowing investors to earn higher yields for lower interest rate sensitivity risk. The current market isn’t paying investors to lend money for longer periods. The front end provides an extremely attractive proposition for investors.
Today’s market is uniquely positioned and many market participants expect volatility to be on the horizon and as higher interest rates make their way through the economy, potentially causing growth to slowdown. Money market and short-term fixed income are well positioned for this environment, as investors can weather the potential volatility in the market while still meeting income and return needs. Continue Reading…
As an investment coach, my job is to educate and empower people with the knowledge to make informed investment decisions and set them on their journey towards financial freedom. However, over the last several years, I’ve found myself on a unique financial journey of my own.
Several years ago, my father was diagnosed with dementia. As his ability to manage his and my mother’s financial affairs began to diminish, I stepped into the role of their primary caregiver. This responsibility, layered on top of raising my two young boys, growing my investment coaching practice, and navigating a global health emergency, placed me firmly within the Sandwich Generation.
The Sandwich Generation refers to those caught in the middle of caregiving, balancing the needs of aging parents with the needs of their own families. According to a report by the Pew Research Center, nearly half (47%) of U.S. adults in their 40s and 50s fall into the Sandwich Generation. They are responsible for a parent who is 65 or older and either raising a young child or financially supporting a grown child.
In Canada, according to a 2020 report from Statistics Canada, around one in four Canadians aged 15 and older (7.8 million people) provided care to a family member or friend with a long-term health condition, a disability, or problems associated with aging. However, these figures likely underestimate the true prevalence of caregiving, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased the demand for home care.
With an aging population, these percentages are predicted to increase in the coming years, further magnifying the importance of addressing the challenges faced by the Sandwich Generation and all caregivers. It has been and continues to be an experience that has been for me mentally, emotionally, and physically stressful, filled with difficult conversations, worries about the future, and moments of feeling overwhelmed.
Despite my financial background, there were times when the responsibilities felt like a juggling act. The multitude of financial decisions to be made, from managing cash flow and long-term care planning for my parents to ensuring the financial stability of my own family, felt daunting. If I was experiencing this, I shudder to think what others who were not as well-versed financially were trying to cope?
Support from Caregiver Groups
In seeking support, I turned to various caregiver groups. It quickly became apparent that many others were grappling with the same challenges. They, too, were struggling to tackle the unique financial demands of being part of the Sandwich Generation.
From my experience, I found the core areas caregivers need to focus on revolved around these critical financial issues: Continue Reading…
Canadians asking how to invest in AI may want to consider an ETF holding large-cap tech stocks with diversified exposure to the rise of artificial intelligence
Deposit Photos
By David Wysocki
(Sponsor Content)
The rise of AI has sparked a huge wave of investor interest. Generative AI tools like Chat GPT have many Canadians asking how they can invest in AI, or wondering if they’ve missed the wave of excitement around this new technology.
We believe that this latest wave of excitement around AI is only the first stage of investor interest in what could become a technological mainstay for years or even decades to come. There could be hiccups and corrections in this area of the market in the short-term, but in the long-term we believe in the investment prospects of AI technology.
The question remains, though, where can Canadian investors go to find AI exposure for their investment portfolios? We believe that Canadians looking to invest in AI could consider the prospects of a large-cap technology ETF.
What is AI and how do companies make money from it?
AI stands for Artificial Intelligence and AI technologies are essentially machines that can perform cognitive functions we normally associate with a human mind. These are functions like critical analysis, prediction, and the creation of original works. AI tools are all around us and have been integrated into technologies for almost three decades, whether in gaming, online shopping, or social media.
In 2023 much of the focus around AI has been on one specific subset: generative AI. Generative AI is a form of AI focused on the creation of original works. Generative AI tools can write text or code, create images, even generate audio and video.
The business applications of AI in general, and generative AI in particular, are wide. First and foremost, generative AI can help businesses operate more efficiently. Many repetitive process tasks such as writing technical guides, analyzing legal text, conducting background research or even generating graphics can be done with an AI tool.
AI, however, cannot replace human workers entirely. In their current state AI technologies can add efficiency and scale to certain tasks, but they are not replacing human workers — especially highly skilled workers — en masse.
Companies in the tech sector developing AI software, as well as hardware tools that support AI, are seeing immediate business impacts as their AI tools are now in demand from a wide range of industries. So far, large-cap tech companies have been leaders in this AI race.
Why large-cap tech companies are AI leaders
The rallying value of technology stocks in 2023 so far has been driven largely by large-cap tech companies. In a still-uncertain macro environment, investors have flocked to large-cap tech for the combination of market share, business fundamentals, and exposure to innovation that these companies bring.
One of the innovation trends that has peaked investors’ interest is the rise of AI, specifically generative AI: tools like Chat GPT or Dall-E that can generate an original image or piece of text. What has made this AI investment trend interesting, however, is that it has largely focused on large-cap companies.
Historically, when a new technology comes into investors’ focus, large-cap companies capture some positive growth trends, but the biggest gainers in the short-term are usually smaller-cap tech companies tied directly to the new tech. In the case of generative AI, there has been a paradigm shift. Large-cap companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft have been so quick to roll out and announce new AI tools that they’ve been some of the primary beneficiaries.
Put simply, large-cap companies have established leadership in the AI space. But, there’s another key reason why large-cap companies, especially combined in an ETF package, can be attractive for Canadians looking to invest in AI: diversification.
How diversified exposure can benefit an AI investor
It takes more than software to build a market-leading AI. The end output of a generative AI tool is built on incredibly complex algorithms, software platforms, cloud infrastructure, and — crucially — hardware like semiconductors.
Semiconductors are the fuel behind the rise of AI, as investors recently experienced through Nvidia’s stock boom. That spike followed forecasts from Nvidia of demand for its semiconductors from other large-cap tech companies building AI tools and platforms.
The rise of AI has had similar impacts on a range of different tech subsectors. It has impacted areas like tech devices, software, and hardware in different ways. Investors seeking exposure to AI can gain breadth of exposure through an ETF holding large-cap stocks from many tech subsectors.
The Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF (HTA:TSX) works on the underlying investment thesis of investing in large-cap companies across the tech sector to gain diversification. HTA is designed to capture a range of growth opportunities in the technology sector, and the rise of generative AI has been a test case for the ETF’s long-term objective. Its varied exposure to large-cap companies in semiconductors, software, social media, and even IT services has allowed it to capture a wide range of positivity from investor interest in AI. Continue Reading…
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By Dale Roberts, cutthecrapinvesting
