All posts by Financial Independence Hub

Coping with the Fear of Market Downturns

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Image courtesy RetireEarlyLifestyle.com/Kiplinger

By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli

Special to Financial Independence Hub

On our latest adventure, we were on the beach in Isla Mujeres, Mexico when a lady recognized us from our website RetireEarlyLifestyle.com. After some pleasantries, she asked if we could address the fears of the market declining and how to handle it.

We appreciated that input from one of our Readers.

Previous market declines

Since the surviving of the 1987 crash when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 20% in one day, there have been other downturns including the recent ones of 2007-2008 and the Covid meltdown in March of 2021. We have learned from each of them.

They can be trying on one’s patience and confidence, so how is it best to handle them?

Noise, corrections and bears

First, let’s define these meltdowns.

Between a 5-10% decline in the averages is called noise and can happen at any time.

Many individual issues have these gyrations which is why we own the Indexes. They are more stable.

Over a 10% drop is called a correction, meaning it is wringing the excesses out of the markets. The markets are constantly being over-extended and under-extended and these 10% moves correct for those times.

If the averages drop 20% or more, it is considered to be a bear market and we tend to have these every 56 months.

On average, bear markets last 289 days or 9.6 months with an average loss of 36.34%. These can be painful for one’s financial health – or an opportunity – depending on where you are in the investment cycle.

A number of events can lead to a bear market including higher interest rates, rising inflation, a sputtering economy, and a military conflict or geopolitical crisis. Seems we have all of these presently.

If you are in the accumulation phase and buying more shares at cheaper prices, this can be a bonus for you. However, if you are now retired and living off your investments with your account values dropping, that can be difficult to swallow.

How to calm your nerves to prevent panic selling

It’s important to note the difference between trading and investing.

Traders drive the day-to-day activity, booking profits and hopefully taking losses quickly. We investors take a longer view to ride out these cross currents of the markets knowing that – over the long run – we will be fine. Continue Reading…

Hedged vs Unhedged ETFs explained

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Currency hedging can impact an ETF’s price and overall performance; learn about hedged and unhedged ETFs in Canada here.

 

By David Kitai, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

The idea behind an ETF is relatively simple. At the most basic level, an ETF issuer creates a basket of securities and lists that basket on a stock exchange for investors to buy and sell. The ETF tracks the value of that basket and moves on the market accordingly.

The trouble is, nothing is ever quite so simple. Many Canadian investors want exposure to US securities, as US markets are the largest and most important in the world. What happens when the securities an ETF issuer uses are based in the US, and trade in US dollars, but their ETF will be listed on the TSX and trade in Canadian dollars?

Now, two factors are impacting the ETF: the value of its basket of securities, and the fluctuating exchange rate between USD and CAD. That means, regardless of the value of its holdings, if the USD goes up, the value of the ETF will also go up. If the USD falls, the ETF will also fall. This is called currency risk.

Some ETFs will employ a strategy called currency hedging to minimize the impact of currency risk on an ETF’s value. Those ETFs will usually be described as “Hedged CAD.”

What “Hedged CAD” means

Generally, when an ETF is Hedged to CAD its portfolio managers use a tool called a “currency forward” to lock in a specific exchange rate on a future date. In our Canadian ETF holding US securities example, if the USD has fallen by that date, the ETF makes a gain from the contract which offsets the value it lost from a falling USD on the portfolio holdings. If the USD has risen, the ETF nets a loss from the contract, which also offsets the value it gained from the rising USD.

The goal of currency hedging is not to maximize returns: the goal is to reduce the impact from currency risk as much as possible.

Harvest offers both hedged and unhedged ETFs in its lineup. A select group of Harvest Equity Income ETFs offer a Hedged “A” series and an unhedged “B” series to suit the goals of different investors. You can find a schedule of hedged and unhedged ETFs here.

Hedged vs Unhedged ETFs

So why would some investors want an unhedged ETF? The answer can vary somewhat. Currency hedging also comes with a small cost that is factored into performance over time.

Some investors may buy an unhedged ETF because they want to take on  exposure to currency risk. Some investors want to be exposed to certain currencies, and getting currency exposure through an ETF holding foreign securities is one way to achieve that. If an investor believes in the thesis behind a specific ETF, for example the US healthcare sector, and also believes the USD will rise against the Canadian dollar, then buying the unhedged “B” series of the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL:TSX) would give them exposure to both a basket of US healthcare stocks and the value of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Continue Reading…

Buying a House in Canada: Why I couldn’t wait to NOT be a Homeowner

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By Kyle Prevost, MillionDollar Journey

Special to Financial Independence Hub

By the end of the summer of 2021 I was no longer a homeowner.

In many countries that statement would be a simple matter of personal finance. Selling an asset, paying off a loan (mortgage) and moving on to another living space.

But not in Canada.

No, in Canada selling our house means that my wife and I are making a massive change to our identities. A core shift in our very essence.

Many would say we are taking a careless step backward on the path to living a fulfilled “real adult” life.

Several friends and family will likely believe that we are crazy for tossing away “the best investment one can ever make.”

The absolute obsession with homeownership in Canada continues to astound me. The emotional connection between Canadians and their real estate has been well documented, but that doesn’t make it any more logical! Even though my wife and I have owned a home for years, this was much less because we subscribed to the traditional “own at all costs” mentality, and more due to the fact that rural Manitoba housing vs rent decisions are quite different than most places in Canada.

We’ll certainly miss some of the small luxuries (goodbye big garage) of our old home, but here’s some of the reasons why we believe selling our house will be a weight off of our shoulders.

1.) Endless Fear of Hearing a Strange Noise

Is that the furnace taking its last breath?

Perhaps it’s the water treatment system deciding to spring a leak?

Is that rain I hear – is it possible our septic system is backing up?!

My dad loves fixing stuff.  His day is not complete until he has improved the physical world around him.

I am not my dad.

My lack of handyman skills has now become a joke that I’m comfortable laughing at, but for years I was incredibly self-conscious about possessing nearly zero masculinity-affirming fix-it ability. You want someone to work hard doing menial chores such as cutting lawns, raking leaves, shovelling snow, or lifting heavy things from Point A to Point B – I got you covered.

Anything that requires technical skills or mechanical problem-solving ability… not so much.

Because my father’s handyman-dominant brain was not passed down to his oldest son, I lived in perpetual fear of things breaking when I owned a home. I never really got this “pride of ownership” thing. For me it was definitely more of a “fear of ownership”. I had so much of my net worth tied up in this one asset – that required constant maintenance – and I really had no idea what it was doing. “Learning by doing” constantly scared me as errors were quite costly.

Hiring any specialized help on something like an air conditioning unit always seemed to cost triple what was estimated, so that just exponentially added to my anxiety levels around maintenance.

Renting = not my problem!!!

2.) Renting is Simply a Better Financial Decision Than Buying – in 2021 Canada.

I know … that’s a big statement.

It’s probably worth an article all on its own.

It will probably lead to crazy comments (as all real estate articles in Canada do).

But it’s quantifiably true.

We’ll get into the “fringe” elements of why owning can be so expensive in a second, but for now let’s just look at the direct dollars and cents comparison.

Before we get too deep into this, I don’t want to argue with you unless you have viewed the following content by some of Canada’s smartest personal minds.

i) Preet Banerjee compares renting a house and renting a mortgage and then explains why he is a renter.

ii) John Robertson (my vote for most underrated personal finance philosopher – and it’s not even close) tells you why he is a renter and presents the best rent vs buy calculator that I’ve ever seen.

iii) Here’s Ben Felix’s 5% rule in action. I personally believe that Ben is shooting a bit high on real estate estimates (today’s giant houses are not comparable to historical returns data he quotes), and a bit low on property taxes + maintenance costs. He also isn’t factoring in closing costs (which are a pretty big deal when you move the number of times the average Canadian does), nor the difference between renters insurance and home insurance. I do like his methodology, but the 5% rule of thumb for non-recoverable costs is pretty badly slanted towards real estate due to the factors mentioned above. I could probably live with a 6% rule – but find a 7% rule to be a much more true measure (speaking as a soon-to-be former homeowner of ten years).

iv) I’ve talked to many real estate experts who claim “the 1%” rule of thumb is a great filter for a potential landlord looking to add a revenue-generating property to their real estate portfolio. That means that if you can’t get at least 1% of your purchase price in monthly rent, then it’s not really worth considering the property. The flip side of that is that if you’re renting for substantially less than 1% of the purchase price of a comparable home – then you’re getting a good deal. Bryce over at Millennial Revolution explains his rule of 150 which comes to similar conclusions.

Those are all great looks at accurately comparing financial costs vs benefits of purchasing a house to live in.

So, let’s use them to look at a few options across Canada at the moment.

Toronto Real Estate

The average price of a property sold in the GTA in May of 2021 was $1,108,453 (a massive 28% gain over a year earlier) while the average rent is closer to $2,100 (down 14%).

  • Our 1% rule of thumb says that a $1,100,000 house better get you $11,000 per month in rent – or it’s not a good buy.
  • Using John’s or Preet’s calculators we see that renting is WAY ahead given these parameters.
  • My modified Ben Felix 7% rule tells us that if we can rent for $6,466 – then it’s a pretty good deal to rent.  If we stick to his original 5% rule, we need to rent for less than $4,618 to be a good deal.
  • Bryce’s preferred rule of 150 means that the $2,100 rental average, would dictate a mortgage payment of $1,400 as a good measuring stick for if they should buy.  A $1,400 mortgage (HAHA – good one) would correlate to a purchase price of roughly $350,000 (depending on a few variables.

Conclusion: By any measure… this makes no sense.

Buying a House in Calgary

Maybe this is just a Toronto thing. Let’s go to a city that has seen its housing market really fall on tough times as a result of the oil collapse, PLUS rent has actually gone up over the last year.

The average rent in Calgary is roughly $1,200 and the average cost of a property is $510,000. Those stats might be skewed a bit by average home type in the rental world vs average home type in the purchase world. Let’s say average rent for comparable might be $1,500.

  • Our 1% rule of thumb says that a $510,000 house better get you $5,100 per month in rent – or it’s not a good buy.
  • Using John’s or Preet’s calculators we see that renting is substantially ahead given these parameters.
  • My modified Ben Felix 7% rule tells us that if we can rent for under $3,000  – then it’s a pretty good deal to rent.  If we stick to his original 5% rule, we need to rent for less than $2,125 to be a good deal.
  • Bryce’s preferred rule of 150 means that the $1,500 rental average, would dictate a mortgage payment of $1,000 as a good measuring stick for if they should buy or not.  A $1,000 mortgage would correlate to a purchase price of roughly $230,000.

Home Prices in Halifax

Ok, enough of these “big city places”. We all know that house prices are way cheaper on the East Coast, so let’s run the numbers for Canada’s semi-hidden gem of a city.

The average rent in Halifax is about $1,600 per month and the average cost of property is $465,000.

If we adjust upward to $1,800 in allowing for comparable properties (I checked, you can rent a solid single-family unit for 1,800 in Halifax – even better in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia) then we get the following analysis.

  • Our 1% rule of thumb says that a $465,000 house better get you $4,650 per month in rent – or it’s not a good buy.
  • Using John’s or Preet’s calculators we see that renting is substantially ahead given these parameters.
  • My modified Ben Felix 7% rule tells us that if we can rent for under $2,700  – then it’s a pretty good deal to rent.  If we stick to his original 5% rule, we need to rent for less than $1,937 to be a good deal.
  • Bryce’s preferred rule of 150 means that the $1,800 rental average, would dictate a mortgage payment of $1,200 as a good measuring stick for if they should buy or not.  A $1,200 mortgage would correlate to a purchase price of roughly $280,000.

…that’s why I’m not afraid to be a renter the rest of my life and why I’m not worried about “hopping off” the property ladder.

If you’re still not convinced, here are a few more stats for you.

  • Canada’s current price-to-rent levels are 574% higher than they were in 1970.
  • Since 1970, Canada’s price-to-rent level has risen at roughly 21x as quickly as the USA’s.
  • Canada’s current price-to-rent levels are substantially higher now than the USA’s was before their 2008/09 housing crash.

3.) Opportunity Cost of Being Rooted Into Place

I grew up in a single house – owned by a homeowner. (My parents were unique in that my dad built his own house on a very cheap piece of rural land and never took out a mortgage. Feel free to try and copy that strategy in 2021.)

It was really nice. I get that there can be some very pleasant reasons to own the house/condo that you live in.

But let’s be honest about the big picture here – there are some large trade offs involved.

Buying a home makes you much less likely to move in order to accept a promotion or career opportunity. That’s impossible to quantify, but it’s a really significant consideration. One of the quickest ways to climb in any industry (or even make an advantageous jump to a new industry) is to be willing to move to where the opportunity is. The cost to your career of feeling as if you are anchored to the house you worked so hard to get into could be massive!

4.) Our Brains Work Differently When We Think About Renting a Place to Live vs “Buying a Forever Home” – Lifestyle Inflation is Almost Inevitable.

Funny things begin to happen as we approach the leap from renter to homeowner.  Suddenly, cost-benefit calculations we were doing about third bedrooms or fancy kitchens fly out the window… only the best will do for our “forever home” after all.

Weird mantras like, “We’ll grow into it,” begin to creep into our heads and suddenly we’re looking at fancy countertops, upgrading bathrooms, etc. Continue Reading…

Living the Dividend Dream

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By Mark Seed

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Incredibly, there are some investors out there truly living their dividend dream.

Today’s post highlights one of those investors for investing inspiration…

But let’s back up a bit …

Some time ago … yours truly wrote a controversial post about the intent to live off dividends and distributions from our portfolio.

Indexers gasped and likely unsubscribed to my site!

Well, even though some considerable time has passed since that post my thinking and income goals remain the same – as least in part for semi-retirement planning:

I continue to believe “living off dividends” (and/or distributions) should work out well for us.

And I’m not alone.

For today’s post, I’m profiling a very successful investor …. who not only dreams of dividends but is living the dividend dream right now.

Living The Dividend Dream

Welcome to the site for this latest investor profile, The Dividend Dream.

Living the Dividend Dream - Investor Profile

Source: https://twitter.com/DreamDividend

I look forward to sharing this interesting new investor profile below but first up, a recap about why dividends and distributions continue to matter to me/us on our income journey.

Yes, my approach to live off dividends remains alive and well in 2023!

MOA Dividend Income Target 2023

My dedicated page including many of the stocks I own. 

Here are some reasons why some investors couldn’t care less about dividends:

  • The trouble with any “live off the dividends” approach is that you’d need to save too much to generate your desired income. Fair. 
  • Dividends are not magical – there is nothing special about them. Sure, of course they are not magical or free! 
  • A dollar of dividends is = a one dollar increase in the stock price. True. 
  • Stock picking (with dividend stocks) is fraught with under performance of the index long-term. I’m not convinced about that. 
  • You can never possibly know long-term how dividends may or may not be paid by any company. Fair. 
In many respects these investors are not wrong and/or are not pointing out some challenges with DIY stock investing.

You do need a bunch of capital to generate meaningful dividend income.

Dividends are part of total return.

Stock picking to some degree opens opportunities for market under performance.

However, my responses and approach to some of these items are as follows, since I believe dividend investing offers far more good than harm:

  • While market underperformance may occur (that is subjective and up to personal investment success, luck, and other factors that are very difficult to substantiate), dividend investing offers up some essential long-term investing discipline, for me at least, to stay the investing course, including when markets tank in any given year. If anything, I buy more!
  • This way of investing provides HUGE motivation and inspiration – to keep investing, in any market climate. The way I see it: money that makes money can make more money.
  • Dividend investing, seeing the tangible money flow into our accounts month-after-month, reinforces my belief that nobody cares more about my financial well-being than I do (except for my wife!). Ha.

All kidding aside…dividend investing and having a plan associated with building ever-growing income offers something that some other ways of investing just can’t readily offer: support for the emotional discipline to execute this strategy, come heck or high water, or even until the end of all capitalism as we know it!

But that’s just me and our plan.

Your mileage might vary and that’s OK.

There are many ways to invest and many reasons that folks invest in what they do.

That said, dividend investing is far from any local phenomena.

I reached out to The Dividend Dream for her to share her reasons for investing in dividend paying stocks, including why dividends matter (or not!), and any considerations she has for any investors at any age on their investing journey. [Editor’s note: for now, “she” wishes to remain anonymous, as explained below; hence there is no photo-JC]

Living The Dividend Dream – Dividend Dream – welcome to the site! 

Hey hey … thanks for having me. I appreciate the invite!

Before we dive into your investing thesis, why you own what you own, and much more – tell us a bit about yourself.

Well, what can I say. People call me The Dream, Dream Girl, aka Dreamer.

I’m anonymous for now as I’m still working a bit, although I entered into a “freestyle” work optional state this year (2023). I’m a businesswoman, living in the southern United States. My field is strategy and marketing, and I went to a top MBA school. I’m in my mid-40s and am married to a wonderful woman who is a professor. I am the breadwinner in the family – by far – so I feel financially responsible for our future. And yeah … that’s the skinny, essentially.

Interesting!

I feel personal finance is personal – a constant refrain on this site. What I mean by this is: everyone’s financial situation is different, and they have personal reasons to invest the way they do, to realize their individualized goals.

How did you get started with investing?

I actually have been thinking about “retirement” ever since I was a teenager. Really, it’s always been more about being financially secure and independent. My family fell on some hard times and it scared me. I didn’t really have any choice but to rely on myself. I held several jobs in high school and throughout college. So … long story short, after college I started like everyone else with a 401(k) at work, trying to max that out every year. But when I started getting into my 30s that’s when I started to really breakout out of the mold, rolling past 401(k)s into investment accounts where I had complete control and could pick to hold whatever assets I wanted, not just the choices provided by an employer.

Awesome. OK, let’s get into it. Why dividend investing? Why do you invest the way you do? Continue Reading…

When Women Succeed, we all Succeed. We just need to “Embrace Equity”

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By Christine Van Cauwenberghe

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Today is International Women’s Day (IWD), an opportunity to mark the social, political, economic, and cultural achievements of women.

The day also serves as a global call-to-action to promote gender parity. This year’s theme – embrace equity – is pertinent as equity is no longer a nice-to-have, but a must-have.

Over the years, we’ve come to better understand the impact of gender bias and discrimination, specifically in finance where women are traditionally overlooked and underrepresented – as advisors and as clients. By investing in gender equity, we can unlock economic growth and lay the groundwork for generations of women to take greater control of their financial futures.

Stereotypically and historically, financial planning has largely been viewed as a man’s job. While progress has been made to change this narrative, we need to see a greater shift away from monolithic thinking around traditional gender roles. Now more than ever, Canadians are seeking financial advice – this is creating an exciting opportunity for women to break the gender bias and get certified as a financial planner to catalyze representation in financial services. Relationship-building, intuitive insight, emotional intelligence, and trust are all traits that differentiate a good financial planner from a great one. These are skills that many women inherently hold and could further hone, making them well-suited to excel in an advisor role. They just need an entryway.

Canadian women will soon control half of accumulated financial wealth

Today, women are playing an active role in financial decision-making – for themselves and their households. Research shows that by 2026, women in Canada will control almost half of all accumulated financial wealth, pointing to a probable surge in demand for financial advice among females. Not to mention, women, on average, live longer than men, meaning that at some point in their lives they will take on the role of sole financial decision-maker. Despite this need, many women are unable to find a financial planner they connect with and 70 per cent change their advisor within one year following the death of their partner or spouse. Continue Reading…