All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Retired Money: Tax Brackets, Income Thresholds, Inflation Factors & other things retirees need to consider going into 2025

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at a variety of tax and savings limits changes that are effective early in 2025. Click on the highlighted headline for the full column: What retirees need to know about tax brackets for 2025.

As the column notes, at or near Retirement taxes and inflation are the two big threats to preserving enough wealth to last a lifetime.  The tax burden hits home with the annual tax-filing deadline in April, but the time to start thinking about the yearly ordeal is before year-end.

The complexity of this task is compounded by almost-annual changes to tax brackets, the Basic Personal Amount, OAS thresholds, inflation adjustments and much more. For starters, I recommend reading an excellent article by CIBC Wealth’s tax guru, Jamie Golombek, which appeared in the Financial Post here on Nov. 23rd, shortly after the Canada Revenue Agency released its new tax numbers for the year 2025.

 Let’s look first at inflation, the second serious scourge retirees face if they live long enough. Here, a useful tool suggested by certified financial planner Morgan Ulmer is Statistics Canada’s Personal Inflation Calculator, which lets you compare your personal inflation rate to the general CPI.

Ulmer, of Toronto-based Caring for Clients, sees the higher tax brackets and inflation adjustments as an “opportunity for retirees to build a savings reserve.” CPP is indexed to inflation yearly while OAS is indexed quarterly.  So “if a retiree is able to increase their spending at a rate that is less than CPI, the difference could be saved as an emergency reserve or invested in a TFSA.”

 Inflation and Tax Bracket changes

 Back to some key data cited by Jamie Golombek.  The inflation rate used to index 2025 tax brackets and amounts will be 2.7%: just over half the 4.7% in effect in 2024.  The good news is that the Basic Personal Amount (BPA) on which no federal tax is levied rises to $16,129 in 2025: It was $15,000 in 2023.

All five federal income tax brackets are indexed to that 2.7% inflation rate. In 2025, the bottom federal tax bracket of 15% will apply to incomes between zero and $57,375. The second lowest bracket of 20.5% will apply to incomes between $57,375 and $114,750. The 26% bracket applies to income between $114,750 and $177,882, while incomes between $177,882 and $253,414 will attract a 29% federal tax. After that the federal rate will kick in at 33%.

Below is a table summarizing that information prepared for MoneySense:

MoneySense.ca

 Don’t forget there will be additional provincial taxes on top of the federal haul, also indexed to inflation at various provincial rates.

 What is relevant for those in the Retirement zone is the higher threshold on Old Age Security: in 2025, according to Canada.ca, OAS begins to get clawed back for taxable income of $90,997.  OAS benefits disappear entirely at $148,451 for those aged 65-74 in 2025, and at $154,196 for those 75 or over. Note the OAS clawback is based on individual incomes, not household income.

Deferring CPP and OAS till 70

 Matthew Ardrey, portfolio manager and Senior Financial Planner for Toronto-based TriDelta Financial, agrees that tax brackets, whether federal or provincial, “become more of a consideration in retirement.” For many Canadians receiving employment income on a T-4, there is little we can do as retirees to keep income in the lower tax brackets. But there’s plenty to think about when considering tax minimization and decumulation strategies. Referring to Golombek’s article, Ardrey says that using federal brackets only, taxpayers can receive $57,375 of income and pay very low rates of taxation, especially when the $16,129 basic personal amount is considered.”

Retirees under age 70 can defer CPP and OAS until 70 and try to live on withdrawals from their registered plans instead. With no other income, taxpayers could have almost $50,000 of after-tax income, or $100,000 for tax-paying couples. Continue Reading…

Franklin Templeton 2025-2035 Outlook: Stocks will beat bonds, EAFE/EM may edge out North American stocks

Stocks are expected to outperform bonds over the next 10 years but EAFE and Emerging Markets will probably do a little better than U.S. and Canadian equities, portfolio managers for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions told advisors and the media in its 2025 Outlook session held Thursday in Toronto. The twice-annual economic outlook marks the 70th year that Franklin Templeton has operated in Canada: Sir John Templeton’s famous Templeton Growth Fund was launched in Canada in 1954. It has been in the U.S. more than 75 years.

Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager Ian Riach [pictured left] said in a presentation distributed to attendees that “expected returns for fixed income have become slightly less attractive as yields have moved lower over the past year. EAFE and Emerging market equities [are] expected to outperform U.S and Canadian equities.” The most likely path to stable returns will be through “a diversified and dynamic approach,” he said.

Shorter-term Macro themes

Addressing major shorter-term themes, Riach said the United States continues to lead in Growth, while Canada is improving and the rest of the world is “challenged.” Inflation continues to trend down but some areas are faster than others. Fiscal policy “remains supportive” while “central banks remain data dependent.”

Addressing Canadian economic growth, Riach said Canada’s  inflation backdrop “continues to surprise to the downside” and is now at target levels as leading indicators continue to improve from weak levels. Thus far, Canadians holding mortgages have not yet been impacted by higher interest rates, based on the cumulative share of mortgages outstanding in February 2022 that have been subject to a payment increase.

Economic Growth in Europe and Asia. 

European sentiment is improving but remains at weak levels while Asian manufacturing “has started to fall,” he said. Economic growth in China remains weak: “Consumer sentiment has yet to recover from deteriorating property sector and labor market imbalances.”

Addressing Emerging Markets ex China, Riach said weakening leading manufacturing indicators will “challenge upside potential of cyclical regions broadly.”

In the United States, AI-related stocks (Artificial Intelligence) continue to power U.S. earnings growth expectations. However, Riach said, “this has been broadening to the ‘forgotten 493’ somewhat.” (i.e. away from the Mag 7.)

 

Inflation much improved

Worldwide, inflation is much improved and is now below Central Bank targets, Riach said.

 

Asset Allocation

Moving to recommended portfolio positioning, Franklin Templeton is overweight equities, underweight bonds and neutral on Cash. Within stocks, it is overweight Canadian and U.S. equities, Underweight EAFE (Europe Australasia and Far East) and Neutral on Emerging Markets.

The second major presentation was delivered by Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy for Franklin Templeton’s ClearBridge Investments. Schulze [pictured on right] is known for his “Anatomy of a Recession” analytical work, which assesses 12 variables that historically foreshadow recession.

However, as the chart below shows, the recession dashboard is currently signalling expansion rather than recession:

 

Addressing employment, Schulze said that while the pace of job creation has slowed substantially over the past few years, “it has settled in line with the pace experienced during the previous economic expansion.” As a result, U.S. consumer spending is robust.
Continue Reading…

Retired Money: A Canadian immigration success story

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column is a bit of a departure in that its focus is on 57-year old blogger and YouTuber Alain Guillot, who came to Canada from Columbia with nothing but entrepreneurial gumption and a dream of being part of the North America depicted on TV at home.

For the full MoneySense column, click on this headline: The first $100,000 is the hardest to save for newcomers.  

The re-election of Donald Trump is almost certain to make Immigration an even more contentious issue. However, as I am myself the child of (British) immigrants I am naturally sympathetic to those who are brave or desperate enough to leave the land of their births to find opportunities in North America.

Which is one reason that over the past year, I’ve been corresponding with an interesting blogger and former financial advisor, Alain Guillot, and occasionally republish his blogs on my site, Findependence Hub. It’s called simply AlainGuillot.com

           He aims to write at least one blog a week and has 600 subscribers on his YouTube channel,  where he is more than half way to being able to monetize it. Now Guillot has just self-published a short e-book entitled The Wealth Paradox: Navigating Money, Free will, and Success, which you can find on Kindle for a very reasonable price. The subtitle explains more: How unconventional thinking influences your Financial and Personal Life.

Side hustles and Entrepreneurism

           One reason Guillot got my attention in the first place was that he emigrated to Canada from Colombia, a place I once visited (San Andres). He soon discovered he was almost forced to become an entrepreneur in Canada. Continue Reading…

How to navigate all the newish alternatives to Twitter/X

Image from The Verge

It’s been two years since Elon Musk acquired the former Twitter, now X. That led to a steady Xodus (sorry!) of hundreds of thousands or millions of formerly loyal users to new platforms like Mastodon and, the following summer, Facebook’s Threads.

Since last week’s shocking re-election of Donald Trump, another wave of X users has left for bluer pastures, this time for Bluesky, founded in part by former X co-creator Jack Dorsey, and some venture capitalists.

There is also a surge of Xpatriates moving to the decentralized Mastodon service. Mastodon creator Eugen Rochko posted Friday on Mastodon that it has benefited from the Xodus as well. Official “app downloads are up 47% on IOS and 17% on Android.” Sign-ups are up roughly 27% compared to the previous month, with 90,000 new accounts.

Thus far, though, Bluesky has drawn more media attention this week. Bluesky has been around since 2021 but had a slow start, beginning with an “invitation-only” approach to big names or those with massive followings. It is now wide open and free to all comers.

But the floodgates have really opened since last week’s election and Musk’s infiltration of the new Trump 2.0 administration. A million new users flocked to Bluesky in the last week alone, bringing the total user base to 15 million, according to Time.  I am one of them, joining on Remembrance Day.

Truth to tell, (certainly not Truth Social!) I had NOT planned to join Bluesky, as I am already on Mastodon, Threads and — oh yeah — Linked In and Facebook. Since I have not yet left X, I felt 5 or 6 social media platforms was probably two or three too many. Even so, some contacts at X the past week suggested I try Bluesky as well, saying the new rush of sign-ups was reminiscent of the good old days of early Twitter.

So, somewhat reluctantly, I signed up, using the same handle as on most of my other accounts: @JonChevreau. I guess part of my reasoning was that when it comes to handles it’s a bit of a land grab and I didn’t want someone else posing as me at Bluesky. That appears to have happened to Mad Money’s Jim Cramer.

Now I’d be the first to say it’s ridiculous to be active on half a dozen social media accounts. It would be nearly impossible for someone with a full-time job and long commute but as I am semi-retired and work from home, it is (barely) manageable. Like most journalists, I’m a bit of a news junkie, though my focus is primarily financial (hence this website) and secondarily, politics (on the theory that politics is always going to impact our personal Financial Independence).

Social media splitting into Red and Blue Silos

Many journalists on X have been agonizing about staying there as standards have slipped under Musk and the site is rife with misinformation, most of it right of centre. In fact at Mastodon, we generally refer to X as “the Hell site.” I see broadcaster Don Lemon just announced his departure from X and arrival on Bluesky.

The problem is of course that many of us have spent the better part of 10 or 15 years building a large network of followers on X. In my case, I restrict most of my X posts to financial content, if only to promote the latest blog from this site. To the extent site sponsors like to see their guest blogs on the site promoted as much as possible on various social media, it’s hard to make the break. It takes years to build up a following in the tens of thousands.

But between Musk buying X and now joining the incoming Trump administration, the die seems to have been inevitably cast. Social media has fragmented into political siloes. X is now a Trump propaganda machine that amplifies what Trump’s own Truth Social was doing. It’s in effect Pravda for the incoming Republican White House. Call it the Red Silo. That was likely the main reason Lemon finally departed.

What you might call the “Resistance” is Threads, Bluesky and to a lesser extent Mastodon, which together I think of as the “Blue Silo.” But in addition to departures from X, I’m also seeing lots of Threads users moving this week to Bluesky: some abandoning it altogether and others opting to become “dual citizens.” One frustration I have myself with Threads is the current limit of following no more than 7500 people. Because of the still-common practice of “reciprocal following,” that policy also curtails Follower growth to a similar number.

Let me go through my evolving personal strategy for navigating these sites. I’ll list these in the order in which I tend to use them first thing in the morning and periodically throughout the day and often evening.

1.) Mastodon

This is my first port of call, even though my Follower account there after two years is less than 10% of what it is on X. Mastodon seems to me to be a bit of a Blue (i.e. U.S. Democrat) silo, as are the next two sites I’ll list: Threads and Bluesky. Presumably many liberal Canadians are sympathetic to that political orientation although things could change soon.

Why do I give Mastodon priority? For several reasons. First, it’s NOT owned by a single billionaire who can upset the apple cart and change the rules on some arbitrary whim. As I explained in a similar post to today’s when I joined Mastodon two years ago — Life After Twitter — unlike the centralized Twitter platform (or indeed Threads or Bluesky), Mastodon is decentralized.

That’s the first thing you need to know about it when signing on. First you have to pick a server, which is run by volunteers around the world. I often get pushback from people checking out alternatives who are under the impression Mastodon is too technical.

It’s not really: all these platforms behave in a similar way, albeit with subtle differences. The main stumbling block with Mastodon is picking the “instance,” which is another word for server. I picked one of the few (or only?) Canadian ones: mstdn.ca. It’s also called Mastodon Canada and bills itself as being run by Canadians for Canadians. Note too that  Mastodon is spelt with the letter o in two places, NOT the letter “a”!

The other big reason I prefer Mastodon is that unlike the billionaire-owned centralized platforms, Mastodon does not use an “algorithm” to steer content in your direction. X, Threads and Bluesky all do this to some extent: either they explicitly ask you what kind of content you want or they gradually infer what you want from the content you appear to gravitate to. Down the road, the danger is they will monetize all this for advertisers or other purposes. When they’re free, remember that YOU are the product! Continue Reading…

A few thoughts on Trump’s victory and investing under Trump 2.0

Deposit Photos

By now, there’s not much I can add to the ubiquitous media coverage of Donald Trump’s shocking imminent return to power.

Since our “beat” here is Financial Independence I’ll spin this that way. A few weeks back we looked at a Franklin Templeton webinar on the investment implications of either a Harris or a Trump victory. See this blog I wrote on October 23rd, headlined Don’t mix politics and investing but financial community thinks a Trump victory more positive for stocks.

You can say that again. As I write this in a daze mid Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1300 points or 3%. Bond prices, on the other hand, are going in the opposite direction.

Franklin Templeton also issued a press backgrounder conveying the view of various money managers. For obvious reasons, below I have cherrypicked the ones that address a Trump victory.

Before we get to that, I’ll point to a Globe & Mail column by Andrew Coyne published Wednesday (Nov 6th), in the aftermath of the election result. The headline tells the tale: Trump’s election is a crisis like no other, not only for the U.S. but the world. (likely under a paywall.) The world yes, but especially Canada. If you can access the column also check the hundreds of reader comments, which offer many and varied takes on the implications of Trump 2.0 on the Canadian economy and politics.

Personally, during the run-up to the election I did not tinker with our family’s portfolio to take advantage of any alleged “Trump trade” or “Kamala stocks.” Those who noted this site’s 10th anniversary the day before the election will probably feel this is a broken record, but I’ve found that a globally diversified balanced portfolio with exposure to all major asset classes is adequate preparation for whatever the investment world may have in store for us.

Asset Allocation ETFs play offence and defence

Let the money managers at places like Franklin Templeton, Vanguard Group, BMO ETFs, Blackrock or Robo advisors decide the relative proportions. Those who engage financial advisors or portfolio managers may want to check in for a portfolio update. For average DIY investors, those Asset Allocation ETFs often referred to in this site should allow investors to sleep at night no matter what horrors await us in January and beyond. In other words, the stocks component of these AA ETFs let you play offence and benefit from the rising of stocks as animal spirits take over investors. But a healthy fixed-income allocation also allows you to play defence in case things get too ebullient. As the old saying goes, you want to “Eat well and sleep well.”

Continue Reading…