All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Your first New Year’s resolution: Maximize your TFSA contribution for 2022

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column describes the first New Year’s Resolution most of us can accomplish on or soon after January 1, 2022.

And unlike resolving to go to the gym or to buy (and use) that new Peloton, this is one you can tick off your to-do list within minutes of changing the calendar to 2022.

I refer of course to making your annual TFSA contribution — $6,000 this year — and you can read all about it by clicking on the highlighted text here to go to the full MoneySense column: Why contributing to a TFSA is a Good Resolution.

Every year since the program commenced in 2009, as close to January 1st as possible, each member of our family faithfully adds the maximum contribution amount (initially $5,000, briefly $10,000 and currently $6,000) to our TFSAs. And because we view them not as tax-free savings accounts but as tax-free Investment accounts, they have all grown substantially: to the point my family members do not wish the exact balances to be divulged to this broad readership. Arguably, TFSA is a misnomer: they should have been called TSIAs.

The column describes Robb Engen’s blog, titled “A sensible RRSP vs TFSA comparison” which reprises David Chilton, who said it all depends on:

  1. If you go the RRSP route, don’t spend your refund.
  2. If you go the TFSA route, don’t spend your TFSA.
  3. Whatever route you go, save more!

 

How about the Cash Flows & Portfolios blog entitled Can you retire using just your TFSA? It begins with this glowing commendation for the TFSA: “The opportunity for Canadians to save and invest tax-free over decades could be considered one of the greatest wonders of our modern financial world.”

The blog’s authors (known only as Mark and Joe) conclude that if you start early enough (like our daughter) you could indeed retire using just a TFSA.

To recap the rules: the cumulative contribution amount as of Jan. 1, 2022 is now $81,500. If you believe in the time value of money, it follows that you should contribute the full $6,000 the moment the new year begins, which is why I always call it “New Year’s Resolution Number 1.” Unlike joining fitness clubs, you can tick this one off your To-do list moments after you sing Auld Lang Syne (assuming you use an online discount brokerage).

Because of the long time horizon, young people could well put only equities into their TFSA, and if they do so from the get-go they will far outstrip the performance of the sadly all-too-common default option of parking TFSA funds in GICs that pay almost nothing relative to inflation.

Not only does an 18-year old have a good 47 years until the traditional retirement age of 65, keep in mind that unlike RRSPs, you can keep contributing to TFSAs well into your 90s or 100s, if you live that long. I knew a lady who was contributing to hers past age 100! Those near retirement could ratchet it down to a conservative Asset Allocation ETF like VBAL, ZBAL or XBAL, all of which cover the world of stocks and bonds in C$ in a traditional 60/40 asset mix of stocks to bonds.

I do try to avoid putting US-based dividend paying stocks or ETFs in the TFSA: put those in your RRSP or RRIF. Canadian dividends and interest belong in a TFSA, as do speculative US or foreign stocks that don’t pay dividends.

Speaking of RRSPs, what about the perennial question of which to fund first: TFSA or RRSP? My short answer is to do both but if you really have to choose, I’d pick the TFSA in most situations. Certainly, young people in a low tax bracket and older folk who are in danger of seeing OAS or GIS benefits clawed back should prioritize the TFSA.

Those in top tax brackets by virtue of high employment income should maximize their RRSPs but if you’re in the top tax bracket then you can probably also afford to maximize your TFSA. If despite such a high income you are encumbered by a lot of mortgage debt and/or credit card debt, I’d even suggest liquidating some of your TFSA to eliminate some of that debt: you can always regain your lost TFSA contribution room in future years and once you are debt-free there should be few obstacles to maximizing retirement savings in all such tax-optimized vehicles.

 

A Q&A on FIRE and Geo-Arbitrage between FindependenceHub.com & RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

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Global early retirees Billy and Akaisha Kaderli

Almost since the Hub’s inception in 2014, the principals behind the popular RetireEarlyLifestyle.com have provided in-depth coverage of global travel and the tips to achieve early Financial Independence they used themselves to “retire” in their early 30s.

The following email interview was between myself and Billy and Akaisha Kaderli.  Our intention is to publish it on both sites. Here’s the link to their version, which ran Dec. 14th. 

So without further ado:

JC Q1: Akaisha and Billy, you are about the same age as myself and my wife Ruth and apart from being American and Canadian, we appear to have several things in common: we both run sites focused on Financial Independence, have written some books on same, and continue to be working at least on our own terms even though we have achieved Findependence years ago: more than 30 in your case, seven in ours. One difference is you travel a lot more, while we are content to stay in our Toronto home near Lake Ontario and take just a few weeks abroad, preferably if it’s a business expense. So let me start with the provocative statement that I think travel is expensive and over-rated. I have no doubt you can rebut that!

A&B: First, let us clarify that the time we spend on our website is what we consider to be our volunteer time. Yes, there are products that we sell, but 99% of our information is free because we are passionate about teaching financial literacy to those who want to learn.

In regards to your comment about travel being expensive and over-rated, it depends.

We think that there are differing styles of travel. There are tourists, visitors and travelers. There is no one-right-way to journey around, and we love it that people get out and about, expanding their minds.

Tourists tend to go on vacation for a week or two, spending a good deal of money on lodging, transport, entertainment and meals. Every day must be “perfect” and if the weather doesn’t cooperate or if service is not great, then there is this sense of disappointment. They tend to go to resorts or even exotic locations, but the lodging and amenities have a sense of Disneyland unreality, and are often over-priced.

Sure, there might be a water buffalo in some rice fields, with “workers” wearing a “traditional clothing uniform” but the real locals are miles away. Tourists will pay $10 or more for a beer that the residents of the area would purchase for about a buck.

Also, Tourists might like the idea of a vacation or might not. Mostly, they like the comfort and routine of home, and a vacation is an interruption in their experience of the familiar. Many times, it borders on the feeling that “this is a waste of time. I’d rather be home.” They don’t know any local phrases in a foreign language except maybe Yes, No, Thank you, Bathroom and Beer. Tourists have more of a passive approach to their excursion and want to be entertained. Then they rate their experience with their friends when they return home.

In order to go on this vacation, they stop their mail, perhaps have a house sitter or family member/friend water their plants or watch their pet. They have probably cleaned out their refrigerator and have to stock up once again when they return home. And it all seems to be a hassle. “Would have been easier to just stay at home in the first place. Plus, now we have this credit card bill and all these souvenirs to give to friends.”

Visitors on the other hand stay in a location for a bit longer – maybe even a month or so. They know some survival phrases in the local language and choose lodging that is more middle range than a resort option. About half the time, they will eat outside of big chain restaurants with well-known names and take a chance on a local restaurant.

They are a bit more self-guided in their entertainment choices, perhaps utilizing Google maps or a local tour of the area to become familiar with their surroundings. They may select local transportation or hire a driver to go from archaeological ruins and museums or they might take a self-directed walking tour.

Using a daypack, they bring their own drinking water and perhaps some snacks to munch on as they go from place to place in their day.

Traveling for them is not necessarily a “vacation” but more of an experience, or a sabbatical. They could take cooking classes, language classes, painting courses and the like and they interact with the local people.

After their time away from home, their lives have altered in some way, perhaps expanding their perspectives or dropping an outworn routine. They look forward to their next adventure.

Then you have Travelers.

Billy and Akaisha at Chacala Beach, Nayarit, Mexico

These are the people who go from place-to-place with no itinerary other than their own style of meandering. They usually buy only one-way tickets, figuring out how to return – if they do –  at another time. They communicate with the native inhabitants in their own language, purchase food, clothing and travel equipment from markets in the area and will often eat street food or dine in local restaurants.

These people travel for months, sometimes years at a time and rent apart-hotels, AirBnBs, house sit or bargain for a hotel room for a monthly rate. They may or may not have a home base for when they return from their wandering.

Travelers are more flexible mentally and are willing to have their routines interrupted. If the weather pattern is not to their liking, they might move on, or hunker down till the cold, heat, or rain stops. They do not live their traveling life as in “Today is Tuesday so it must be Belgium.” They speak with other travelers to get insight into their possible next stop.

Travelers employ digital equipment and apps to communicate with family and friends. They utilize email, sending digital photos or videos taken of their experiences, and they travel lightly. They throw their daypacks onto a bus or carry them on an affordable inter-country flight. Getting their cash in the currency of the country they are living in, they work the ATMs with a debit card that pays the withdrawal fee back.

They manage their lives online and have been receiving paperless mail for a long time. Photos are placed up in the cloud and they take care of business via Skype, WhatsApp or Signal, benefitting from medical tourism for their health care.

Travel does not cost them “more.” In fact, if they were spending their time “at home” they would still have a baseline of expenses – lodging, food, transport, entertainment for instance. But now they have incorporated these same expenses along with globe-trotting which creates memories for a lifetime and stories to share.

In general, travel has broadened their minds, giving them a unique perspective of the world and a confidence and self-reliance that pervades daily living.

We think it’s important to know one’s traveling style and enjoy who you are. There is not a one-size-fits-all, and we recognize that travel isn’t for everyone.

Someone has to stay home, attend the roses and mow the lawn!

Hub CFO Jonathan Chevreau

How does extensive travel differ from short vacations from full-time employment?

JC Q2: To clarify, we enjoy travel too; was just playing devil’s advocate. Before we switch to Findependence, do you think there’s a big difference between the expensive two-week vacations many salaried employees take, and actually renting a house or suite abroad for 3 or 4 months at a time in Semi-retirement?

A&B: Yes, there is a big difference, actually.

When one is still working, vacations are stress busters. Work hard, play hard.

These holidays tend to be results of pent up demand for luxury; things we have denied ourselves during our working life like splurging on fine meals out, visiting an exotic place far from home, a ski vacation, or a safari. Continue Reading…

Vanguard 2022 Outlook projects lower 10-year returns for 60/40 portfolios

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Vanguard Global Economist Joe Davis: Vanguard.com

Returns on the traditional 60% stocks/40% bonds balanced portfolio are expected to be roughly half of what investors realized over the last decade, according to the Vanguard Group’s 2022 Economic and Market Outlook, which is being released today (Monday, Dec. 13).

Global stocks are expected to outperform U.S. stocks bonds significantly over the next ten years while US and global bonds will be in the range of 1.3% to 2.4% annualized ,

Here are Vanguard’s 10-year annualized return projections:

  • Global equities: 5.2% – 7.2%
  • U.S. equities: 2.3% – 4.3%
  • Global bonds: 1.3% – 2.3%
  • U.S. bonds: 1.4%– 2.4%

The report issued by Valley Forge, PA-based Vanguard is titled Striking a better balance: ironic given its projections for performance of balanced portfolios.

“The road ahead for investors promises to be a challenging one,” said Joe Davis, Vanguard’s global chief economist and co-author of the report. “Global markets will test investors’ discipline as they navigate the risks of unwinding monetary policy support, slower growth, and rising real rates.”

In an advance webinar aired last Thursday, Davis said: “Wage inflation will dictates the pace of rate hikes in 2022.” He said the US Federal reserve is likely to raise rates to at least 2.5% this cycle in order to maintain price stability. As for stocks, we are in an era of “high valuations and low rates,” which creates a “fragile backdrop for markets ….[which] will chip away at future returns.” Better valuations are in developed markets outside the US, small-caps and Value. More stretched valuations are in Emerging Markets, the US, Growth and Large-cap, Davis said.

US equities have not been this overvalued since the dot-com bubble, Davis said, adding that a secular decline in rates has been three decades in the marking.

For Bond markets, best values is in TIPS and short-term treasuries. Most stretched are long-term treasuries, mortgage backed securities and international credit. In between are intermediate treasures and high-yield bonds.

Policy accommodations

In Monday’s press release, Vanguard said challenges are likely to be most evident with the unwind of monetary policy, a critical factor in 2022 as central bankers assess a rapidly evolving economic landscape. Inflationary pressures have sharpened the focus on monetary policymakers as these pressures may drive changes in central bank communications and actions. Vanguard projects that central banks will largely try to avoid sharp and unexpected shifts in the timing of policy changes, particularly of policy rate increases, but that conditions will force them to act in 2022 and quite possibly by more than markets are anticipating.

Economic outlook

With the global economic recovery expected to continue in 2022, Vanguard economists foresee the low-hanging fruit of rebounding activity to give way to slower growth, regardless of supply- chain dynamics. In both the U.S. and the Euro area, Vanguard expects economic growth to normalize to 4%. In the U.K., Vanguard expects growth of about 5.5%, and in China, expectations are that growth will fall to about 5%.

Inflation

Vanguard expects labor markets will continue to tighten, with several major economies quickly approaching full employment. Vanguard estimates the cyclical effects of supply constraints will persist well into early 2022 and then normalize as the structural deflationary forces of technology and unemployment take hold again. These factors contribute to expectations that inflation will trend higher for some time before slowing in the second half of 2022.

Don’t fear a “lost decade” for US stocks but a lower-return one

Vanguard’s long-term outlook for global asset returns for 2022 and beyond remains guarded, particularly for equities where valuations are high and low real interest rates continue to act as a strong gravitational pull on future returns. Investors should not fear a “lost decade” for U.S. stocks, but rather, a lower-return one, it says. For fixed income, low interest rates mean investors should expect lower returns. However, because rates have risen modestly since 2020, Vanguard’s outlook is commensurately higher.

International equities will outperform US in coming decades

Given the differences in valuations between the U.S. and non-U.S. developed markets, Vanguard projects international equities will outperform U.S. equities in the coming decades and value stocks will outperform growth in the U.S.

It says investors are best served in a broadly-diversified portfolio, including international equities.

“While the economic recovery is expected to continue through 2022, easy gains in growth from rebounding activity are behind us, and policy will replace health as the leading consideration for investors,” Davis said, “Despite a potential low-return environment, we are still expecting a positive premium for bearing equity risk. Investors should continue to focus on what they can control, and if they have the patience to weather potential periods of underperformance, we believe accepting some active risk offers the opportunity to offset low future returns.”

Inflation: Transitory with a Twist

At the advance webinar, Vanguard America’s Senior Economist Roger Aliaga-Diaz projects inflation to be “Transitory with a Twist.” He foresees only a modest decline in inflation in 2022. Central banks, including the Fed, will have to normalize sooner than later. “We may see next week [i.e. this week: Dec. 13 to Dec 17] accelerating tapering but not likely to hike rates.” He expects “one or two” hikes in the second half of 2022. Inflation will be around 5% early in 2022 but this should be in the low 3s by the end of 2022. Continue Reading…

Stocks expected to keep outperforming bonds next 10 years: Franklin Templeton

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Investors should expect North American and international equities to continue to outperform bonds over the next ten years, according to senior portfolio managers for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. As the accompanying chart illustrates, expected returns for equities the next 10 years range from a 4.6% for US stocks to a high of 6.5% for Emerging Markets stocks. Canadian stocks are expected to do almost as well, at 6%, and EAFE equities will also outperform US stocks, with retiring expectations of 4.9%.

Returns for bonds are more modest: Franklin Templeton projects 1.8% return for Government of Canada Bonds and 2.4% for Global Investment Grade Bonds. The chart shows the volatility, topped by Emerging Markets at 16.9% and Canadian equities at 15%.

The forecasts were provided Tuesday at a virtual webinar at the Franklin Templeton 2022 Global Investment Outlook.

3% Global Growth should keep pace with Inflation

Over the next 7 to 10 years, the firm expects 3% annual global growth, roughly keeping up with inflation, said CFA William Yun, executive vice president for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. Over that time, equities should outperform fixed income and non-US equities should outperform US equities, he said.

Looking to Canada, Canadian stocks should have slightly higher expected returns, albeit with greater volatility, said Senior Vice President Ian Riach. The outperformance will be because of lower  “more reasonable” valuations for Canadian stocks, he added. “We are quite positive on the Energy and Financial Services sectors.”
Continue Reading…