All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

3 of top 6 NYT bestsellers reprise Trump’s last year in office, with two more to come

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Sadly for democracy, the summer of 2021 has seen yet another flurry of books about former US president Donald Trump. The three main ones are shown in the photo above (taken from the Toronto Sunday Star’s reprint of the New York Times Book Review that appeared on August 15th, referencing late July sales).  

And two more may shortly join them on the list, both by authors who have tackled this terrain at least once before: one by Bob Woodward, Peril, coauthored with Robert Costa, and Mary Trump’s sequel, The Reckoning, which came out this week, more on which below.

While we did publish a version of this blog earlier this summer I have revised it to reflect the fact that the three books already published make up three of the top six bestsellers .

Notice that all three titles originated with words originally from Trump’s mouth. I have now read or listened to all three of I Alone Can Fix It (number 1 on the adjacent list), Landslide (number 3) and Frankly, We Did Win This Election (Number 6). Thank you for the sympathy.

In the case of the three books already out and flagged above, I borrowed ebooks or audio books from the Toronto Public Library’s excellent Libby service and/or a paid service called SCRIBD: a paid service that has a 30-day free trial. Not being a Trump fan, I really don’t relish the idea of actually paying for these books, although you could also argue the authors are performing a public service in reminding American voters of the folly they committed in 2016 and may yet repeat in 2024.

I certainly hope that these five books will be the last batch but fear that we’re not even close. 45 — as I prefer to call him — grabbed an outsized share of the world’s attention during his ill-fated first term and it’s well within the realm of possibility that he will continue to do so in what may prove to be a mere interregnum of the Joe Biden presidency.

If, God forbid, 45 also becomes 47 by winning in 2024 then all told the world would be subjected to more than 12 years of his commanding the media’s attention and that of the publishing world, like it or not. The implications for the global economy and by extension the stock market are not, I think, pretty, should the worst happen.

True, 2024 may seem like a long shot, given 45’s age (75), obesity and poor dietary and exercise habits, not to mention the multiple criminal and civil legal cases unfolding against him. One hopes that eventually all this will catch up with him and that the American electorate will finally wise up to the conman/would-be dictator. You can fool some of the people all of the time but are there really 74 million Americans who are blinded to 45’s obvious faults?

So far, he’s got away with everything

CNN.COM

Apparently so. As Mary Trump wrote in the closing pages of her book on her uncle,  Too Much and Never Enough, “So far he’s gotten away with everything.” He’s dodged every bullet fired at him during his checkered career as real estate mogul, reality TV star and twice-impeached US president.

In her followup book, Mary outlines her ideas on how America can cope with the aftermath of her uncle’s chaotic four years.

Again, I read a library e-book and found the 205 pages of The Reckoning to be a fairly quick read. Roughly half the content reprises the first book and its focus on Uncle Donny. The other half, including the opening chapter, covers perhaps more American history than most Canadians will be interested in: especially its native origins and early days of slavery of Black Americans and/or a lot of analysis and recommendations for how America can emerge from the “trauma” that psychologist Mary Trump hypothesizes afflicted her and many other Americans following her uncle’s 2016 electoral victory.

Certainly, she has not dialled down her rhetoric about her uncle. A few sample passages:

She concedes that 74 million people voted for Donald, who she describes as “the least worthy person I can imagine.”

“…. despite, or because of, the four years of incompetence, cruelty, criminality, grifting, unconstitutional behaviour, treachery, treason, and most breathtaking of all, the fact that almost there hundred thousand Americans had died by Election Day as a direct result of Donald’s willfully malicious inaction.”

Or:

“Donald wasn’t just incompetent, laughable, and cruel — though he was all of those — he was actively laying the groundwork, through his rhetoric, his policies, and his perversion of democratic norms and institutions, for autocracy.”

 

What has this to do with Financial Independence?

What has all this got to do with Financial Independence? At first blush, not a lot. See for example this Hub blog I wrote from 2018: The glut of books about Trump and prospects for Boomers’ retirements. If he actually wins back office from 2025 to 2029, many of his generation will be retired if they’re not already.

The last time we looked at Trump books was last fall, as we steeled ourselves for the possibility of his reelection: apart from the Mary Trump book cited above I reviewed Michael Cohen’s Disloyal and Bob Woodward’s Rage. Again, note that Woodward is about to publish Peril, another book about Trump’s last year in office, coauthored with the Washington Post’s Robert Costa.

Which brings us to the three bestsellers flagged in yellow in the list at the top of this blog. Apart from them, hose interested in the Covid aspect of the Trump presidency might also want to read Nightmare Scenario. I  enjoyed it, although anyone paying attention to the news throughout 2020 will be familiar with the story arc: 45’s initial and ongoing denial of Covid, his attempt to keep the stock market from being spooked by it, and on through Operation Warp Speed and Pfizer’s announcement of its successful vaccine scant days after the election, which of course infuriated 45. Mary Trump’s The Reckoning also spends a lot of time on Donald’s negligence with respect to the pandemic

Landslide

This is Michael Wolff’s third book on Trump, which in itself should be cause for pity for this author. The New York Times favourably reviewed this along with I Alone Can Fix It. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Is “Core & Explore” too dangerous for retirees and near-retirees?

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column revisits the topic of Core & Explore. You can find the whole column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Rethinking Core & Explore.

If the image on the left looks familiar, it’s because we used it last week to illustrate a republished blog on Explore by Michael J. Wiener, the blogger behind the popular Michael James on Money blog.

Go back to a couple of my Retired Money columns the last year and you’ll see I touch on the topic of speculation for retirees more than once, usually couched in the context of Core & Explore.

See for instance these pieces: Should Retirees Speculate? and How to Master Core & Explore.

“Core” is the prudent long-term strategy inherent in the MoneySense ETF All-Stars: low cost, diversified across geographies and asset class. Fully takes advantage of the “only free lunch:” that of broad diversification.

“Explore” on the other hand, is the polar opposite. The theory is that if you’ve taken care of 80 or 90% of your “Core” or Serious Money, you can go crazy with the other 10 or 20%, by “scratching the itch” of taking flyers on all those crazy things we’ve seen lately, like SPACs, cryptocurrencies etc., nicely surveyed by CFA Steve Lowrie in this recent blog: SPACS, NFTs and another Tech-inspired Silly Season.

Of course, as long as markets keep soaring, it’s hard not to love assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum, which may have tripled or quadrupled in a matter of months. Anyone who bought Tesla a year or two ago, or the ARK ETFs that were roughly 10% in Tesla and many comparable high flyers, was looking like an investing savant by the end of 2020, including Yours Truly. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: how to prepare for “Transitory for Longer’ inflation

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As oxymorons go, you have to love the phrase “Transitory for Longer,” which comes up in my latest MoneySense Retired Money column. It looks at inflation, which of course is in the news virtually every day this summer, and one reason why stock markets are starting to weaken again (along with renewed Covid fears). You can find the full MoneySense column by clicking on the following headline: How might Inflation impact your Retirement plans?

As with trying to divine short-term moves in stocks or interest rates, I view predicting inflation — whether near-term, medium-term or longer-term — as somewhat futile. So the column preaches much the same as it would about positioning portfolios for stock declines or rises in interest rates: broad diversification of asset classes.

Asset Allocation for all Seasons

The ever useful four asset classes of Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio I find may be a good initial mix of assets to prepare for all possibilities: stocks for prosperity, bonds for deflation, cash for depression/recession and gold for inflation. Browne, who died in 2006,  famously allocated 25% to each.

That’s a good place to start, although as I point out in the column, many might add Real Estate/REITs and make it a five-way split each of 20%. Some suggest 10% in gold (both bullion ETFs and gold mining stock ETFs), which might be expanded to include other precious metals like silver, platinum and palladium. Some might add to this a 5% position in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which some view as “digital gold.”

To the extent stock markets and interest rates will forever fluctuate over the course of a retirement, such a diversified approach could help you sleep at night, as some asset classes zig as others zag. Seldom will all these assets soar at once, but hopefully it will be just as rare for all to plunge at once.

Annuities and new “Tontine” approaches

Another approach to this problem is not so much Asset Allocation but what finance professor Moshe Milevsky has dubbed “Product Allocation.” Continue Reading…

My review of The Boomers Retire

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column reviews the new fifth edition of The Boomers Retire by certified financial planners Alexandra Macqueen and David Field. Click on the highlighted headline here to retrieve full article: Fresh takes on the challenges facing baby boomers as they approach retirement.

As I note in the column, the original edition of The Boomers Retire (which I read at the time) was by Lynn Biscott and was published back in 2008.

Macqueen and Field are both CFPs and the book is aimed at both financial advisors as well as their clients, as indicated in the book’s subtitle.

Clearly, retiring boomers constitute a massive potential readership. I myself co-authored The Wealthy Boomer, way back in 1998. At that time, baby boomers may have started to worry about Retirement but most, including myself, would have been squarely in the Wealth accumulation camp.

Wealthy Boomers now well on way to transition to Decumulation

Here in 2021, Decumulation is the emerging financial focus of Baby Boomers, many of whom will already be retired or semi-retired, and considering new decumulation solutions like the Purpose Longevity Fund, which this site has looked at more than once. (here via Dale Roberts and here via another MoneySense Retired Money column.) Continue Reading…

New 2nd edition of US version of Findependence Day now available; plus an Interview with Myself

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Happy Canada Day!

Just in time for America’s Independence Day, I’m happy to announce that a new updated 2021 edition of Findependence Day is now available in the US market. Published by Best Books Media in New York, you can buy the paperback version of the book here through Amazon.com.

Or you can buy the new paperback for US$15.99 or Nook ebook for US$1.99 at Barnes & Noble.

Below is an Interview with Myself, which explains the timing, the differences and other things. If “An Interview with Myself” strikes some as a little bizarre, let me acknowledge that I originally got that idea from British journalist and author Malcolm Muggeridge, who I knew when he was the Writer in Residence at the University of Western Ontario journalism school in 1978-1979.

So without further ado, here’s the Q&A with myself:

 

Jon Chevreau: So Jon, you already had an American edition out in 2013. Why are you updating it eight years later?

Jon Chevreau: Good question, Jon, it’s mostly a matter of timing and the fact that North America, led by the United States, is just starting to emerge from the Covid pandemic. Suddenly, young people are starting to have hope again about their futures, including their financial futures. And, Findependence Day is a novel geared to younger adults, millennials, people just starting out on their life’s journey.

JC-Q: I see. I know Canada is a bit behind the USA in its vaccination program and economic recovery, but why a new US edition and not a new Canadian edition?

JC-A: True but the fact is that while the original Canadian edition has sold well and continues to sell in Canada, the original print run was such that there are still enough copies left that it doesn’t make much sense to make the old version obsolete. And besides, the content in the Canadian edition is still current.

As you know, Jon, the first edition from 2008 was actually written as a North American edition and attempted to include both Canadian and American content. But you decided a few years ago that the US market — which after all is ten times as large — needed its own edition with no reference at all to Canada or to Canadian financial content.

JC-Q: How do the different editions differ?

JC-A: Well, both the 2013 Trafford U.S. edition and the updated 2021 Best Books US edition are what I wanted the original edition to be. The cover concept was always the one you see above: it’s just that when Power Publishers published the first edition, the design team there went with the cover concept of the red balloon in the blue sky.

JC-Q: But you really wanted the image of a calendar set in the future, circling July 4th as the Findependence Day selected by one of your main characters?

JC-A: Correct. The 2013 and 2021 covers are quite similar although Best Books slightly reworked it and we changed the futuristic date from 2027 to 2036.

JC-Q: So the protagonist, Jamie, still has 15 years to achieve his dream of Financial Independence while he’s still young enough to enjoy it?

JC-A: Quite right, Jon.

JC-Q: Any other big differences?

JC-A: Well, the other thing the two US edition incorporated was something some people suggested I include in the original Canadian edition but chose not to at the time. That’s the chapter summary at the end of each chapter of the key lessons that Jamie and his wife Sheena learned. The new 2021 edition retains that feature and updates some of the financial info.

JC-Q: How do you categorize Findependence Day? Is it non-fiction or is it fiction?

JC-A: I wish you hadn’t asked that one, Jon because that’s a tough one to answer. In truth, it’s a hybrid of fiction and non-fiction, which I realize is a bit unusual.

JC-Q: So which is it, if you put a gun to our head?

JC-A: First, I’d say please remove the gun. Second, I’d say it’s primarily a novel but a financial novel.

JC-Q: Like David Chilton’s The Wealthy Barber and its many imitators?

JC-A: Sure, David Chilton established this genre way back in 1989 and no one has sold more copies than him in that niche. Incidentally, David has told us he “believes” in Findependence Day and that it is “excellent.” You can find that among the many laudatory testimonials the book has gathered over the years.

JC-Q: So why the hybrid and how does Findependence Day differ from all those other Wealthy Barber knockoffs?

JC-A: Well, most of the imitators tend to be what I call “information dumps” — the focus tends to be on the financial information and the stories around them tend to be a bit thin when it comes to characterization, plot etc.

JC-Q: And Findependence Day isn’t?

JC-A: We tried to bring traditional novel-writing structure and techniques into the book so that the young people who are its target audience would first be entertained and drawn in sufficiently that they’d want to see what happened to Jamie and Sheena. Yes, we sprinkle in the financial info as the plot proceeds but not at the expense of Story. So the minute any financial dump starts to sound contrived and unlikely to occur in real life, we cut it short and returned to the story.

That’s another reason for the end-of-chapter summaries and incidentally the reason we also created two Amazon ebooks that summarize the plot and reprise the end-of-chapter summaries. They cost just $2.99: they’re called A Novel Approach to Financial Independence. (one for Canada, the other for the US)

JC-Q. In short, we tried to write a “real novel.”

JC-A. We did try and many reviewers seemed to think we pulled it off. One financial planner, Diane McCurdy, said Findependence Day is “the closest you’ll come to a great beach book that helps you make enough money to retire!”

JC-Q: How is it a beach read? Continue Reading…