All posts by Jonathan Chevreau

Theranos’ Elizabeth Holmes and Wolff’s new Trump book: parallel cautionary tales?

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Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes and the book exposing the scam

Being a frugal kind of guy in Semi-Retirement, whenever possible I like to get books out from the library, whether old-fashioned physical books, e books or audio books. The main problem with this, however, is that you usually have to wait several weeks or even months to get to the head of the line for the latest bestsellers.

On a recent long weekend (the one before this one!) two bestsellers arrived the same day, which meant the pressure was on to read them in the three weeks allotted. Neither was likely to qualify for renewal, since there was a long queue of other readers waiting for their return.

The first, which arrived in e-book format, was Bad Blood, a book I had ordered several weeks earlier and has only recently slipped off the bestseller list. The other one was brand new: Michael Wolff’s followup book on Donald Trump, entitled Siege: Trump under Fire. On this one, I got really lucky, just happening to be in the library a day or two after the local branch’s local copy went on display.

Still, suddenly I had two books to read at once, which meant that anything else I either owned or was more likely to be renewable had to be put aside. No one said being frugal was easy!

I ended up reading both books over a long three-day weekend by adopting a strategy of reading a chapter in one, then switching to the next chapter in the other. Which is how I realized there were some fascinating parallels between the two books. It was something of a surreal experience, as I’m sure no one else on the planet would have read these two books simultaneously in this fashion.

Billionaires, or Thousandaires?

Both involve supposed American billionaires, although this point is debatable about both subjects. Trump’s billions are often supposed to be fanciful, which is why one New York Times columnist once earned Trump’s ire by dubbing him a “thousandaire.”

The other was a billionaire for awhile, at least on paper but these days she may not even be a thousandaire. I’m referring to Elizabeth Holmes, a young Stanford dropout who hero-worshipped Apple’s Steve Jobs and started a blood-testing company in California called Theranos.

The only problem, as Bad Blood recounts at length, is that apparently Theranos supposed ground-breaking technology didn’t work. Google Elizabeth Holmes and you can find a bunch of short videos that describe the sordid tale if you missed it the first time around and don’t wish to join the library queue for the book.

Blinded by ambition and the quest for fame and wealth, it appears Holmes and her much older partner/lover (Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani), cut numerous corners and forgot the first rule of health care is to first do no harm. They raised billions from investors, in the process fooling such retail giants as Walgreens and Safeway. Holmes had founded the firm in her early 20s and used her influential rolodex to suck in many investors who should have known better.  She also was famous for emulating Jobs and his attire of a black turtleneck sweater. And finally, as any number of Google searches will demonstrate, she pitched her voice a few octaves lower so as to impress prospects and investors with a deep baritone she must have felt would allow her to be taken more seriously.

Will Trump’s reign also end in tears?

Wolff’s Siege was released just a year after his previous Trump bestseller, Fire & Fury, and relies just as much on input from Steve Bannon. As I read and alternated chapters between the two books, it was fascinating to watch the unravelling of Holmes and to wonder whether Wolff was describing a similar unravelling of the Trump presidency. Certainly, Wolff depicts an isolated and desperate president and has predicted it will all end in tears: not necessarily ours but of Trump’s. Continue Reading…

No surprise: living beyond our means is why 38% are in Debt

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Talk about cause and effect: 38% of Canadians admit that living beyond their means resulted in their being in debt. That’s according to a survey being released this week by Manulife Bank of Canada. It also found a third of Canadians aged 20 to 69 with a household income of at least $40,000 say their spending growth outpaces their income, and 19% of those who went into debt cited not being able to break the debt habit. Almost half (49%) on indebted Canadians between the age of 20 and 34 and a majority of those aged 35 to 54 report carrying credit cards with a balance.

No surprise then that one in ten (9%) admit to being “clueless” about how much they are spending each month on average.

Blame YOLO and FOMO

Apparently cultural attitudes like “You only live once” (YOLO) and “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) are starting to take their toll on indebtedness. Apart from the 38% who admit their debt arose because of living beyond their means, 12% directly correlated their indebtedness to the outcome of too many costly outings with friends or family.

While 19% of debtors say they can’t break the habit, the survey also reveals that seeing debt paid off can result in joy, which is what 36% of Canadians say.

Manulife CEO Rick Lunny

And once again (see yesterday’s post on the HSBC study), Canada’s high housing prices are seen impacting this country’s Millennials. Millennials are now at the age many want to get on the property ladder and start families, two areas where Manulife is seeing expenses grow. “Housing affordability remains at near-historic highs across the country and child-care costs have risen faster than inflation for Canadians,” said Manulife Bank president and CEO Rick Lunny in a press release, “We have a financial wellness crisis in Canada.”

Obviously debt can limit one’s social life but the survey quantifies this. it found that debt limits activities with family and friends (22%), makes it impossible to spend money on entertainment (18%) and negatively impacts mental health (in 17% of cases.)

Manulife says Boomers feel less affected by debt: one would hope so since any Boomer contemplating retirement should by now have a healthy positive net worth rather than a negative one! In which case, they will be less constrained in spending on entertainment or meeting with family and friends.

Manulife finds that those under 55, women, and those with high levels of debt are most likely to feel stressed by these circumstances. It also found a “gradual yet significant” decline in the proportion of Canadians with mortgagers who express comfort with the payments. “There has been a sharp year-over-year decline in the proportion who claim to feel very comfortable about both the payments (28%, down 8 from Spring 2018) and the amount owing (21%, down 9) on their mortgage.”

The Joy of getting out of Debt

Asked to rate the perceived joy they would get from various financial accomplishments, two thirds of Canadians put getting out of debt (“escaping”) first or second overall, with having a hefty retirement nest egg a distant third.

Of course, reducing debt is easier said than done. Manulife suggests a clear “area of opportunity” is making adjustments to non-essential spending but there are demographic differences. Millennials are much more willing to sacrifice dining out compared to those who are over 35. Women are twice as likely as men to stop shopping for non-essential goods and services. Men and those who are 35 or older are most willing to give up travelling (which I’d say is certainly a non-essential spending activity!)

There are some positives in the survey. it found that three in ten say their debt is under control and they don’t need any help to control it. Others believe there are more effective ways to track debt and curb spending. Manulife cites its own Manulife All-in Banking Package, which includes Saving Sweeps that automatically moves excess funds into savings accounts each night. For more on the Debt Survey, click here.

Millennials value property more than looks when it comes to dating: HSBC study

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HSBC.com

It seems Canada’s soaring real estate market has started to affect Millennial dating patterns. According to a survey coming out today from HSBC Bank Canada 61% of Millennials feel anxious about buying a property, so much so that shared financial (39%) or property (33%) goals are considered more important than looks when daters are considering a potential future partner.

HSBC adds that this obsession with shared property has a downside for Canadian millennials: “They are far more likely to say they had stayed in a bad relationship due to property (16%) than Canadians on average (6%).” Sounds like a possible basis for a new Millennial situation comedy!

All this is contained in Beyond the Bricks, an HSBC-sponsored annual global survey of almost 12,000 adults in ten countries, including 1,077 in Canada.

HSBC says that getting on the property ladder can be both exciting and stressful for Canadian millennial once they’ve found their perfect partner.  Most (62.8%) Canadian millennials said financial considerations drove their last house move, and the top two reasons for the move were getting more house for their money (25.5%) or a lower cost of living (23.4%). And the biggest source of tension was accepting money from parents for the purchase (in 14% of cases.) Continue Reading…

Motley Fool: Best vehicles for an Emergency Fund

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What are the best investment vehicles for holding a safe and highly liquid Emergency Fund? That’s the focus of the third in my latest series of blogs for Motley Fool Canada introducing the basic principles of establishing Financial Independence.

You can find the latest instalment by clicking on the highlighted headline here: One Essential Tip for Achieving Financial Freedom.

In the first two installments of this new series of articles, we looked at two key steps toward Financial Independence: jettisoning debt and, once that is accomplished, applying the resulting surplus to savings and ultimately long-term investments.

As the latest blog argues, you could even argue that an emergency cash cushion should take precedence over both debt elimination and saving/investing.

What should you be looking at in an Emergency Fund? First, you need liquidity: the ability to access the cash at a moment’s notice. Second, you want safety of capital, which really means cash equivalents or fixed income, not equities normally held with a time horizon of more than five years. Third, assuming some sort of fixed income that’s not locked up like a 5-year GIC, you want at least a reasonable rate of interest to be paid on it.

Normally, you shouldn’t regard RRSP investments as an emergency cushion, since you’ll have to pay tax to access the funds. Most people will try to keep relatively high cash balances in their chequing accounts that can serve as a cushion, although typically these accounts pay next to nothing in interest income. One possibility is short-term or redeemable GICs that may pay somewhere between 1 and 2% per annum. Another good place to “park” such funds is a High Interest Savings Account (HISA).

As the name suggests, HISAs pay high amounts of interest, usually more than 2%. According to this source, several pay more than that: as of mid 2019, EQ Bank was paying 2.3%, Motus Bank up to 2.5%, Tangerine was offering a promotional rate of 2.75%, and Motive Financial was paying 2.8%, Wealth One Bank of Canada was paying 2.3% and WealthSimple 2%. Pretty nice returns for liquid cash cushions! Continue Reading…

Retired Money: What to do about falling GIC rates

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PWL Capital’s Ben Felix

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column has just been published. It looks at the reversal the past year in interest rates, which impacts seniors who had started to look forward to at least half-decent GIC rates near 3%. You can find the full piece by clicking on the highlighted headline: Are GICs right for retirees looking for Fixed Income? 

Short of embracing high-yielding dividend paying stocks, the more palatable alternative for conservative retirees might be fixed-income ETFs. The article focuses on a recent video by CFA Charterholder Benjamin Felix, an Ottawa-based portfolio manager for PWL Capital. Felix argues that at a minimum such investors should have a mix of both fixed-income ETFs and GIC ladders.

The latter let you sleep at night because they are invariably “in the green” in investment accounts. But while in the short term fixed-income ETFs can be in the red — just like equity ETFs — Felix makes a compelling argument for the higher potential returns of bond ETFs.

Felix believes that what really matters for investors is total return: “Holding a lower-rate GIC after a rate increase still results in an economic loss.” Bond returns consist of principal, interest payments and reinvested interest, so focusing only on return of principal misses the point. Individual bonds are not ideal for individual investors, as they require extensive research, are relatively expensive and tricky to trade.

Short-term GICs miss out on the term premium

But short-term GICs miss out on the term premium, which is substantial over time. Going back to 1985, Felix says short-term bonds returned 6.51% annualized versus 7.97% for the aggregate bond universe (which includes some short-term bonds).  This shows how much mid- and long-term bonds bring up the overall return. To be clear, this period captures one of the greatest bond markets in history but Felix says it is still reasonable to expect a relationship between riskier longer-term bonds and higher expected bond returns. Risk and return should be related.

GICs are also illiquid, so even if an investor chooses to include GICs in a portfolio, they will generally also include bond ETFs, which – like stock ETFs – can be sold any trading day. Nor do GICs provide exposure to global bonds.

Of course, a nice alternative are those asset allocation ETFs we have often discussed on this site. See for example this excellent overview by CutthecrapInvesting’s Dale Roberts: Which All-in-One, One-Ticket Portfolio is right for you? 

The Felix video can be found at his Common Sense Investing YouTube series here.