All posts by Pat McKeough

Is now a good time to buy stocks? Look beyond headlines to learn answer

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Examine The Theories That Forecasters Rely On To Predict Market Swings — And Learn Their Flaws

The universe is constructed in such a way that nothing is certain. You can always come up with perfectly rational reasons why something won’t work. But people find ways to overcome obstacles, and some businesses succeed despite risks.

Is now a good time to buy stocks? Below are a couple of factors to consider. 

Is now a good time to buy stocks? Understand pendulum theory and you will understand the past

You could sum up the investment version of the pendulum theory like this: stock prices alternate between periods of overvaluation and undervaluation; the degree and duration of each period of overvaluation is related to the degree and duration of the subsequent period of undervaluation, and vice versa.

In other words, pendulum theory says that when stocks head downward after a period of overvaluation, they won’t stop at fair value. Instead, they’ll keep dropping until they hit lows that are in some sense as out-of-whack as previous highs, or close to it.

Pendulum theory is a handy way to label the past, and it gives you a sense of how stock prices behave. But it’s useless at predicting the future or timing the market. That’s why pendulum theory generally plays a small part in successful investing. If you qualify as a “successful investor,” you probably recognize that the market never gets so high that it can’t go higher, nor so low that it can’t drop some more. This is a key part of understanding the stock market.

Is now a good time to buy stocks? Consider this valuable concept to gain another perspective

Here’s one of the most valuable things you should recognize as an investor: “A rising market climbs a wall of worry.” In other words, you need to recognize that a stock market’s rise automatically generates negative comments. The higher and/or longer the market rises, the more negative comments it generates. These are the bricks in that wall of worry.

The inevitable building of this wall grows out of human nature. Many people are instinctively cautious or conservative. When they see a stock or the stock market go on a rise, they look for reasons why the rise may falter or reverse. That’s especially true of stock market commentators. When a stock or the market rises beyond their expectations, they dig deep for hidden flaws.

This spurs them to come up with comments that at times seem deliberately slanted to promote a negative view. You might call them “misleading indicators.” Here’s an example:

“The market had the biggest drop in a day (or week, or month),” or “the longest string of falling days, since … [a date chosen to maximize shock value].” When these kinds of comparisons began appearing in the news this year, after a long dry spell, some investors took it as ominous news. They assumed it meant the market was at risk of greater declines. It means nothing of the kind.

Sometimes, of course, the market puts on big one-day declines near the start of a long-term price decline. It has also done so near the end of such declines and at various points in the middle. The same goes for big one-week and one-month declines and for long strings of down days.

Every year, the market will hit a series of “new highs for the year,” or a series of “new lows for the year.” In many years, it will hit some of each.

When you adopt “A rising market climbs a wall of worry” as a mindset, it will help you maintain your perspective. You’ll start to recognize that milestones like these are trivia, passed off as meaningful statistics. The investment news is full of them. You may find they make interesting reading or listening, but they also burn up valuable time. You’ll earn a far greater return on that time if you devote it to learning and comparing facts about the companies you invest in.

Stop worrying too much about the big picture

If you constantly worry about the “big picture,” including trying to pick market tops, you may at times manage to sell at just the right moment to sidestep a serious downturn. But you may only do that after sitting through a series of downturns. The downturn you avoid may turn out to be the last in a series—the “final leg downward,” as short-term traders like to refer to it. Continue Reading…

How Real Return Bonds compare with regular Bonds, protecting against unexpected rises in Inflation

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Real Return Bonds (RRBs) pay you a rate of return that’s adjusted for inflation, but that’s not always as promising as it seems.

When a real-return bond is issued, the level of the consumer price index (CPI) on that date is applied to the bond. After that, both the principal and interest payments are typically adjusted every six months, upwards or downwards from that base level, to compensate for a rise or fall in the CPI.

In general, Government of Canada real-return bonds pay interest semi-annually, on June 1 and December 1.

How a real-return bond works: A theoretical example

The Bank of Canada issues $400 million of 30-year bonds maturing on December 1, 2049. The bonds have a coupon, or interest rate, of 2%.

If after six months from the date of issue, the new CPI level is, say, 1% above the level of the CPI on the issue date, then each $1,000 of bond principal is adjusted to $1,010 of bond principal ($1,000 x 1.01). The semi-annual interest payment is then $10.10 ($1,010 x 2% / 2).

If after 12 months, the level is 2% higher, then the bond principal is adjusted to $1,020 ($1,000 x 1.02), and the interest payment rises to $10.20 ($1,020 x 2% / 2).

Three important considerations to recognize with real-return bonds

1.) The price you pay for real-return bonds reflects the anticipated rate of inflation. In other words, if investors feel that inflation will rise 2% over the long term, the price of the bond will reflect that future inflation increase and its effect on the bond’s principal and interest payments. So, when you buy a real-return bond, you are only protecting yourself against unanticipated rises in inflation.

2.) When the inflation rate falls over a six-month period, the principal and interest payments of a real-return bond fall. In times of deflation, the inflation rate turns negative. In a prolonged period of deflation, the principal of a real-return bond could fall below the purchase price. Interest payments would fall, as well.

3.) As with regular bonds, holders of real-return bonds must pay tax on interest payments at the same rate as ordinary income. That income gets taxed at the investor’s marginal rate. In addition, holders of real-return bonds must also report the amount by which the inflation-adjusted principal rises each year, as interest income, even though you won’t receive that amount until the bond matures. That amount is added to the bond’s adjusted cost base.

If the CPI level falls, that reduces the inflation-adjusted principal. You deduct the amount of that reduction from your taxable interest income that year, and also subtract it from the adjusted cost base.

Real-return bonds in comparison to regular bonds

In simple terms, a bond is a form of lending whereby you lend money to a corporation or government. In return, a bond pays a fixed rate of interest during its life. Eventually, a bond matures, and holders get the bond’s face value—but nothing more. Receiving the fixed interest and face value at maturity is the best that can happen. Note, though, that in some cases, corporate bonds can go into default. As well, inflation can devastate the purchasing power of bonds and other fixed-return investments. Continue Reading…

No surprise: the best retirement investments are the same as for everyone else

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We recommend that you base your investing for retirement on a sound financial plan relying on the best retirement investments.

One thing investors of all ages fear is not having a good financial plan in place so they have enough retirement income to live on once they’ve stopped working. Looking for the best retirement investments, addressing this concern is usually a high priority for many of our Successful Investor Portfolio Management clients.

Four key factors to consider when investing for retirement

  1. How much you expect to save prior to retirement;
  2. The return you expect on your savings;
  3. How much of that return you’ll have left after taxes;
  4. How much retirement income you’ll need once you’ve left the workforce.

Our portfolio diversification approach gives you strong potential for long-term gains  

If you diversify as we advise, you improve your chances of making money over long periods, no matter what happens in the market.

For example, manufacturing stocks may suffer if raw-material prices rise, but in that case your Resources stocks will gain. Rising wages can put pressure on manufacturers, but your Consumer stocks should do better as workers spend more.

If borrowers can’t pay back their loans, your Finance stocks will suffer. But high default rates usually lead to lower interest rates, which push up the value of your Utilities stocks.

As part of their portfolio diversification strategy, most investors should have investments in most, if not all, of these five sectors. The proper proportions for you depend on your temperament and circumstances.

For example, conservative or income-seeking investors may want to emphasize utilities and Canadian banks in their portfolio diversification, because of these stocks’ high and generally secure dividends.

More aggressive investors might want to increase their portfolio weightings in Resources or Manufacturing stocks. For example, more aggressive investors could consider holding as much as, say, 25% to 30% of their portfolios in Resources.

However, you’ll want to spread your Resource holdings out among oil and gas, metals and other Resources stocks for diversification and exposure to a number of areas.

Stick with conservative estimates to account for unforeseen setbacks

As for the return you expect from investing for retirement, it’s best to aim low. If you invest in bonds, assume you will earn the current yield; don’t assume you can make money trading in bonds.

Over long periods, the total return on a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality stocks runs to as much as 10%, or around 7.5% after inflation. Aim lower in your retirement planning — 5% a year, say — to allow for unforeseeable problems and setbacks.

Above all, it’s important to remember that while finances are important, the happiest retirees are those who stay busy. You can do that with travel, golf or sailing. But volunteering, or working part-time at something you enjoy, can work just as well. Continue Reading…

If you must speculate in penny stocks, find those with these common characteristics

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Penny stocks do sometimes pay off, but there are many pitfalls to avoid. As you’ve heard us say often, a lot of penny stocks are little more than very well executed marketing campaigns.

Take a look at the penny stocks in your portfolio. If you’re a penny stock investor you likely have a number of them. The top 10 penny stocks in your portfolio should follow these guidelines:

Tips for analyzing your top 10 penny stocks

  • Look for strong management: Look for an experienced management team with a proven ability to develop and finance a mine, product or service.
  • Look for a strong balance sheet: High-quality penny stocks should have strong balance sheets with low debt. It’s even better if they have a major financing partner.
  • Look for well-financed companies: To profit in penny stocks, you should look for well-financed companies with no immediate need to sell shares at low prices, since that would dilute existing investors’ interests.
  • Look past the hype: Avoid stocks that are trading at unsustainably high prices as a result of broker hype or investor mania.
  • Look for stocks trading on a well-regulated exchange: We think you should avoid stocks trading “over-the-counter”, where such things as regulatory reporting are lax. Stick to penny stocks trading on regulated exchanges like the Toronto and New York stock exchanges.
  • Look for a results-focused company: Automatically rule out investing in companies that promote themselves too aggressively, or do so misleadingly. Success is more likely if the managers focus on developing a saleable product or service, rather than hyping their story.
  • Look for reasonable share prices: Compare the market caps (the total dollar value of all of a company’s outstanding shares) of the stocks with the estimated value of their assets or future earnings streams. Only a few penny stocks will successfully launch a product with enough success to justify the current share price and avoid collapse.

Your top 10 penny stocks will not be marketing ploys

Many penny stocks are little more than very well executed marketing campaigns. Your top 10 penny stocks won’t fall into this category. Many penny stock promoters will do anything in their power to get their penny stock noticed. These extensive marketing campaigns include emails, TV interviews, podcasts, newsletters and paid sponsorships.

There are also some so-called news sites that will sell sponsorships to penny stock promoters. These are great opportunities for penny stock promoters but bad for investors looking for an unbiased opinion on a stock. Continue Reading…

10 keys to picking the best Canadian income trusts and REITs

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Canadian income trusts have always involved far more risk than most investors realize. This is why we’ve recommended so few of them in the past.

Income trusts are a type of investment trust that holds income-producing assets. Their units trade on stock exchanges, but they flow much of their income through to unit holders as “distributions.”

On January 1, 2011, Ottawa imposed a tax on distributions of income trusts. The new tax put income trusts on an equal tax footing with regular corporations.

Virtually all Canadian income trusts then converted into conventional corporations. But some are still out there: mostly real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Investing in trusts — and in particular oil and gas trusts — was risky, as the businesses that underpinned them needed steady cash flow. But that could stagnate during economic downturns. At the same time, we believed that investors should have looked for trusts with low capital expenditures and mature businesses.

More about Canadian Income Trust taxes

Canada offers special tax treatment for Canadian income trusts. When they flow their income through to their unitholders, they don’t pay much if any corporate tax. Investors pay tax on most of the distributions as ordinary income (although some distributions qualify as a tax-free return of capital).

Ottawa feels the income-trust business structure is appropriate for real estate investment trusts, or REITs, so it has exempted REITs from the income-trust tax.

Real estate investment trusts resemble Canadian income trusts, but with a key difference: REITs invest in income-producing real estate, such as office buildings, shopping centres and hotels. (We cover a number of carefully selected income trusts and real estate investment trusts in our Canadian Wealth Advisor newsletter.)

Regardless of whether or not they have converted, the basic tests we use to ferret out good investments and reject bad ones still apply, not only to Canadian income trusts, but to other types of investments, as well.

Keep “Investment Inputs” in mind when judging income trusts, or any investment

In evaluating investments, many investors focus on what we’d call “investment outputs,” such as earnings, dividends, cash flow, return on equity, sales growth and so on. These are all important, of course, but you shouldn’t focus on them to the exclusion of what you might call “investment inputs.”

Investment inputs are harder to work with than investment outputs, since it takes a judgment call to determine their risk or value. To give you a better idea of what we mean, here are 10 keys to picking the best Canadian income trusts and real estate investment trusts. We look each before recommending any income trust: Continue Reading…