Hub Blogs

Hub Blogs contains fresh contributions written by Financial Independence Hub staff or contributors that have not appeared elsewhere first, or have been modified or customized for the Hub by the original blogger. In contrast, Top Blogs shows links to the best external financial blogs around the world.

Slaughter on the High Seas: Time to bottom fish Cruise Line Stocks?

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Photo by Ian Duncan MacDonald

By Ian Duncan MacDonald

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Did you ever try to defend investing in the stock market when the risk averse shouted that no one can foretell the future and investing is just a crap shoot?

The Canadian Pension Fund’s purchase of several million more shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd in the fourth quarter of 2019 is an example of our inability to foretell the future.  Due to COVID-19, Royal’s shares dropped a billion dollars in the first quarter of 2020.  With assets of $420 billion, our pensions are not in jeopardy, but it may well be years (perhaps decades) before Royal Caribbean share price recovers to its former glory.

“Capital value is going to fluctuate over time,” was the pension fund’s response to the hit.  They are right. As long as the pension fund does not sell these depreciated shares, they will technically never take the billion-dollar hit.

Not having to sell is the joy of investing with the public’s money. The next time you lose a few thousand on your stock pick you can tell your spouse, who is questioning your investment skills, “It’s a long-term play. At least it wasn’t a billion dollars like those professionals at the Canadian Pension Fund.”

Until COVID-19, investing in cruise lines looked like the safest of investments.  Every year their boats were full of more and more baby boomers with the time and money to splurge on the non-essentials of life.

The $46 billion-dollar cruise industry is dominated by Miami based Carnival Corporation (CCL/NYSE), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH).  In 2019, these three gave boat rides to 80% of the 26 million cruise passengers in the world.  Between them they employed 272,000 in 200 ships.  These now under utilized assets are tied up at docks with only a hope that some of them might tentatively begin cruising again August 1, 2020.

Would cruise shares make a good edition to now add to your portfolio?  The following chart gives you an idea of how speculative an investment they might be:

Do you find it interesting that despite the pandemic, analysts are rating all these stocks as buys and strong buys?  Based on this limited data, did the pension fund choose the best one to add to their portfolio?  Interestingly Royal paid a dividend in April; this appears to be the last dividend they will be paying for the foreseeable future.  The other two have not paid dividends this year.

Supply 20 times more than Demand

The book values of these three companies are well ahead of their current share price, which indicates a bargain.  Admittedly, “book values” are calculated by accountants and are not the same as the “market values” that might be realized if the company’s assets were liquidated.  Currently, the supply for cruise ships is probably 20 times greater than the demand.

The price to earnings ratio is low confirms that the shares are not overpriced.  The operating margins for the three reflects their historical sales minus the expense to realize those sales.  With little new revenue now coming in, their operating margins will probably be a minus figures when more current financial information is released.

The IDM score at the bottom of the chart is a measuring stick and summary to quickly evaluate stocks. It is based on the data currently available to the public.  It does not reflect the dire straights that these businesses are now in.  The scores reflect those of the profitable well-run companies that these three once were just a few months ago. Normally any score over 70 indicates a very desirable stock to own.  Anything over 50 is normally a safe stock purchase. (You can learn more about the IDM score at informus.ca). Continue Reading…

Podcast on Squeezing All the Juice out of Retirement

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Earlier this week, financial planner and author Riley Moynes featured me on his weekly podcast, Squeezing All the Juice out of Retirement. You can find the 24-minute interview here, using any number of podcasting platforms.

I have written about Moynes’ books in the past (such as The Four Phases of Retirement) as well as his son Chris Moyne’s book about the Retirement of pro athletes: After the Game.

While both those books come up in the podcast, Riley Moynes starts by asking me about why I coined the term Findependence instead of using the more traditional term Retirement.

Most readers of the Hub will by now be familiar with this topic. In fact, one of the first blogs we published when we launched the site in November 2014 was this one on “Which is the better goal: Findependence or Retirement?”

However, for the sake of more recent subscribers, I’ll recap that Findependence is merely a contraction for Financial Independence. And Findependence Day is the day you estimate  you will reach your Findependence. All this is explained in the Hub’s sister site and processor, FindependenceDay.com. There you can purchase the Canadian edition of Findependence Day or find a link to the Trafford site to buy the U.S. edition. (The book is a financial novel.) There is also a button at the top right of this site that will take you to the site.

Moynes elicits a fair bit of my recent history since leaving full-time employment in 2014. As i said, I was working from home long before the Covid-19 crisis hit! What is different — and is also discussed in the podcast — is that a year ago, my wife also left her full-time job in the transportation industry, so we’re experiencing the joys and challenges of Findependence together, albeit aided by two well-equipped home offices.

The 4-hour workday

Another topic that we spent some time during the podcast is the concept of the four-hour day. I used to write about this back in my days at the Financial Post, and it also comes up in the book I co-authored with Mike Drak: Victory Lap Retirement. The 4-hour day concept was brought to my attention by a former employer and friend:  published in 1955 by William J. Reilly it was titled “How to make your living in Four Hours a Day Without Feeling Guilty About It.” (not to be confused with the more recent Tim Ferris book, The 4-Hour Workweek).  Continue Reading…

How to save on auto insurance during COVID-19

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By Matt Hands, RateHub.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

You might only review your car insurance once a year, but in times of financial hardship, exploring all opportunities to cut back is a smart idea. Whether your car is sitting parked, or you’re only driving for essentials like groceries and medicine, you should know two things.

First, the industry is adapting to the current climate in COVID-19 by offering some payment deferrals and flexible payment options. Second, there are things you can do, be it in a pandemic or not, to save money.

Auto insurance industry response to driving less

The industry’s initial response, almost unanimous in nature, was to offer payment deferral options allowing individuals to delay their monthly premium payments for a defined period of time: ideally once your income returns to expected levels. In addition to this, some providers are waiving non-sufficient funds charges (NSF fees), but be mindful that your bank could still charge you the fee, so it’s best to check with them.

In a more surprising move, many insurers have relaxed their rules about using your vehicle in the shared economy:  e.g. uber, lyft, etc. Depending on your provider, you may also be able to get a coverage extension at no additional charge allowing you to drive your car for commercial reasons to make ends meet. Typically, you’d need a special coverage addition or endorsement on your policy to drive and make money from services like Uber Eats.

More recently, the provincial government announced they will allow the Ontario auto insurance industry to provide premium rebates in the otherwise regulated environment. Now, we’re seeing some more tangible reductions being offered to Ontario drivers. The various relief options can be unique to each provider, so make sure you contact your insurer to find out what potential discounts and flexible payment options are available to you.

Automatic discounts

A number of insurers are applying automatic discounts, which don’t require the policy holder to do anything. Allstate, Pembridge, Pafco, and Travelers are issuing a one-time payment equal to about 25% of your monthly premium. Gore Mutual decided to give a payment worth 20% of 3 months of premium payments. iA insurance is offering the same 20% premium discount, but over 2 months, and used as a credit on your account. L’unique, SSQ, and LaCapitale are both offering a 20% rebate applied as a credit for one month. Unica is offering a 15% break on premiums for April, May, and June.

Passive discounts

Other insurers are taking a more passive approach, which requires the policy holder to initiate the conversation about discounts. Aviva, Economical, Sonnet, and Family will reduce your car insurance premium by 75% if you aren’t driving anymore, or 15% if you’re driving less. They still don’t want you driving for commercial purposes, though. CAA is offering a 10% base rate reduction, Unica is doing the same by 15%. Desjardins and The Personal are calculating their discounts by looking at 3 months of premiums and reduced driving to figure out your unique discount.

Actions you can take to save on car insurance

Deferral should be a last resort, as you will still have to pay the premiums owing eventually on top of future payments. But don’t fret, there are some other ways to save on car insurance.

Reducing the kilometres on your policy

You may not remember, but when you first get car insurance quotes, you’re asked how many kilometres you drive in a year and your daily commute to work. Continue Reading…

American, Delta and United: Which airlines will survive?

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By Ian Duncan MacDonald   

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

An investor asked If he should invest in American Airlines, Delta Airlines and United Airlines.  He had noticed that the share prices of these industry leaders had reached new lows.

Is investing in airline stock currently a risky speculative play?  Just how much of a gamble would it be?

A quick Google search discloses that Warren Buffett recently sold all his airline stocks (4 billion dollars worth); air travel has dropped to 5% of its pre-pandemic level; airline employees are being offered early retirement; airline executives have taken pay cuts; capital expenditure projects have been shelved and  billions of dollars in emergency loans from the government have been taken out.  The daily cash burn rate of the airlines is reported to be over US$100,000,000 a day

The US government’s passing of a 50 billion dollars in aid for the airline industry was contingent on the airlines not furloughing employees or cutting their pay. This seems to have ignored the reality that hundreds of thousands of the 750,000 employees in that industry are now redundant.

Historically commercial risk dictates that when there are too many suppliers to serve a market, the weakest supplier must disappear through merger or insolvency.  The survivors then become stronger with the acquisition of the departed’s market share.

Which of the three airlines in the following chart seems weakest? Which seems to be in the best financial condition?  Does it surprise you that analysts are still recommending buying all 3 of these stocks or does it indicate that these businesses are deteriorating faster than financial information can be provided to make accurate projections?

Try to identify each of the airlines in the chart

While the Information in the chart is for the 3 major airline stocks (AAL, DAL and UAL) I have deliberately not identified them by name. Who do you think is in the number one, two and three columns? By going to Yahoo finance and entering in these three stock symbols you can quickly find information that identifies which they are. You will also see, if you have never done it before,  just how easy it is to gather facts to help you evaluate a potential stock purchase.

The IDM Stock Scoring software on the bottom line of the chart is a measuring/summary tool that was developed to grade stocks by their potential.  A score cuts through pages of data available on every common stock.  It helps investors quickly and easily determine if a  stock is a desirable purchase or not.  This score is compiled from the 9 factual items itemized in the chart. The “best” score seen, reported so far, was a Canadian bank with a score of 78.  The “worst” or lowest score was an 8 for a company that soon became defunct.  Purchasing stocks scoring less than 50 is thought to be too speculative.

Dividends are paid from the Operating Margin.  Does it surprise you that the airline in the chart with the highest operating margin and highest dividend also has the highest score and the highest number of analysts recommending it as a buy?

A reliable score enables investors to add stocks to their portfolios without the need to rely on the questionable advice of investment advisors.  Periodic rescoring of stocks in a portfolio allows investors to react to positive and negative changes easily and quickly.  Scoring puts a stop to making stock purchases blindly based on questionable rumours or recommendations.

Being aware that stocks can be easily and accurately graded makes many investors reluctant to invest in mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds.  They quickly realize they have no certainty as to what these bundled investments are putting their money into.  Continue Reading…

Vanguard reduces fees on three passive Canadian Bond ETFs

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With interest rates falling ever closer to zero, the mantra that costs matter in investment funds is truer than ever.

So it’s good news that on Tuesday Vanguard Canada cut fees on three passively managed Canadian bond ETFs, the sixth fee reduction in its Canadian operation in the last seven years. With the latest fee cuts, Vanguard says its average Management Expense Ratios on its ETFs are 57% lower than the industry average.

As the graphic to the left shows, the management fee will now be 0.15% on the Vanguard Canadian Long-Term Bond Index ETF (VLB/TSX), the Vanguard Canadian Government Bond Index ETF (VGV) and the Vanguard Canadian Corporate Bond Index ETF (VCB). Previously the fee on VLB was 0.17%, VGV’s was 0.25% and VCB’s was 0.23%.

Vanguard Canadian Long-Term Bond Index ETF seeks to track the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Canadian 10+ Year Float Adjusted Bond Index, investing primarily in public, investment-grade fixed income securities issued in Canada. Vanguard Canadian Government Bond Index ETF seeks to track seeks to track the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Canadian Government Float Adjusted Bond Index, and invests primarily in public, investment-grade government fixed income securities issued in Canada. Vanguard Canadian Corporate Bond Index ETF  seeks to track the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Canadian Credit Float Adjusted Bond Index  and invests primarily in public, investment-grade non-government fixed income securities issued in Canada.

Kathy Bock, Managing Director and Head of Vanguard Investments Canada Inc.

“For us, low costs are not a pricing strategy. We are built to pass on the benefits of our size and scale to investors in helping them achieve investment success,” said Kathy Bock, Managing Director and Head of Vanguard Investments Canada Inc. in a press release, “This is even more important in the current market climate, where low returns mean that costs erode an even larger share of returns than they would normally.”

The extreme volatility of the last few months has challenged both individual investors and financial advisors and in such an environment “high-quality bond ETFs can play a key role as a stabilizing force in a portfolio,” said Scott Johnston, Vanguard Canada’s Head of Product, “We are pleased to support investors with these fee reductions to help them keep more of their returns.”

Low fees and the “Vanguard Effect” in Canada

Including fee reductions from 2013 to 2015, and in 2018 and 2019, Vanguard estimates the cumulative reductions have saved Canadians more than $10 million.

As competitors adjust fees down in response, industry investment fees have come down significantly over the last several years, typically after Vanguard enters a particular geographic market. This “Vanguard Effect” phenomenon has occurred in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia as well as Canada.

For more information on Vanguard’s broad pricing impact on the ETF market, see this infographic.