Hub Blogs

Hub Blogs contains fresh contributions written by Financial Independence Hub staff or contributors that have not appeared elsewhere first, or have been modified or customized for the Hub by the original blogger. In contrast, Top Blogs shows links to the best external financial blogs around the world.

Expect strong single-digit returns in possible soft landing: Franklin Templeton’s 2024 Global Investment Outlook

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Investors can expect strong positive single-digit returns for the ten years between 2024 and 2034, portfolio managers for Franklin Templeton Investments told advisors on Thursday.

Ian Riach

Speaking at the 2024 Global Investment Outlook in Toronto, portfolio manager Ian Riach said Canadian equities will have expected returns in C$ of 7.2%, a tad below the 7.4% of U.S. equities and 8.6% for both EAFE and Emerging Markets and 8.1% for China. Riach is Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions and CIO of Fiduciary Trust Canada.

Fixed-income returns are expected to be in the low single digits: 3.9% for Government of Canada bonds, 6% for investment-grade Canadian bonds and 4.8% for  hedged global bonds, again all in C$. See above chart for the Volatility of each of these asset classes, as well as the past 20-year annualized returns for each. From my read of the chart, expected returns of North American equities the next decade are slightly below past 20-year annualized returns but EAFE and Emerging Markets expected returns are slightly higher, with the exception of China.

Fixed-income investors who were dismayed by bond returns in 2022 will no doubt be relieved to see expected future returns of Canadian bonds and global bonds are higher than in the past 20 years. “Expected returns for fixed income have become more attractive; recent volatility [is] expected to subside​,” Riach said in the presentation provided to attendees.

Capital markets expectations (CME) are used to set Strategic Asset Allocation, which forms the basis of Franklin Templeton’s long-term strategic mix for portfolios and funds, the document explains: “Portfolio managers then tactically adjust.”

“This year CMEs are generally higher than last year. Primarily due to higher cash and bond yields as a starting point,” the document says.

Global equity returns are expected to revert to longer- term averages and outperform bonds​,  EAFE equities “look attractive,” and Emerging market equities are expected to outperform developed market equities​, albeit with more volatility.

Central banks may have to tolerate higher inflation, but are determined to at least get it closer to target in the short-run.  The Bank of Canada does have some room to tolerate a higher rate as its target is more flexible at 1%-3%.  This compares to the Fed’s hard-wired 2%.  Thus, rates in the US may stay higher for longer to bring inflation down to target

Risks of Recession

Riach described three major broad portfolio themes. The first is that Recession risks are moderating but “reasons for caution remain.” The second is that on interest rates, central banks have reached “Peak policy, but expect higher rates for longer.” The third is that “Among the risks, opportunities exist.” Addressing the narrow market of the top ten stocks in the S&P500 (the Magnificent 7 Big Tech stocks plus United Health, Berkshire Hathaway and ExxonMobi), market breadth should broaden to the rest of the market.

For portfolio positioning, Riach suggested selectively adding to Equities, overweighting U.S. and Emerging markets equities, underweighting Canada and Europe equities, and for Fixed Income,”trimming duration and prefer higher quality corporates.” In short, “a diversified and dynamic approach [is] the most likely path to stable returns.”

Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments (part of Franklin Templeton) gave a presentation titled “Anatomy of a Recession.” A recession always starts as a “soft landing,” as the slide below illustrates.  “We’re not out of danger. Leading indicators point to Recession,” he said, “The base case is Recession.” While the S&P500 consensus is for earnings growth, the U.S. GDP is expected to worsen.

 

 

He described himself  not as a permabear but a permabull, at least until a year ago. If as he expects there’s a “soft landing” with stocks possibly correcting by 15 to 20% in 2024 Schulze would view that as an opportunity to add to U.S.  equities in preparation for the next secular bull market.

One of the catalysts will be A.I., not just for the Magnificent 7 but also for the S&P500 laggards. As the chart below illustrates, economic growth often holds up well leading into a recession, with a rapid decline coming only just before the onset of a recession.  Continue Reading…

In the pursuit of financial security for all, we can’t overlook older widowed women

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Image by Pexels: Andrea Piacquadio

By Christine Van Cauwenberghe

Special to Financial Independence Hub

Canada has a bold vision – to build a more accessible, inclusive and effective financial literacy ecosystem for all. The five-year plan, laid out in the National Financial Literacy Strategy 2021-2026, is an important step forward to achieving sweeping financial literacy. But one cohort is noticeably absent from this ambitious strategy – older widowed women.

During Financial Literacy Month in November, we had an opportunity to cast a light on financial education and empowerment for this often overlooked and underserved, but statistically significant, group. In 2022, there were approximately 1.5 million widowed women compared to the roughly 472,000 widowed men, reports Statista Research Department. As our nation nears “super-aged” status, where 20 per cent of our population will be 65 years or older, these numbers will continue to climb.

Longer life expectancies for women, paired with women generally marrying or partnering with older men, leaves them more likely to spend at least some of their retirement in widowhood. As such, it’s estimated that 90 per cent of women will become the sole financial decision-maker at some point in their lifetime, representing a substantial segment of Canada’s wealth management sector.

Lower financial literacy than male counterparts

However, this same group generally reports lower levels of financial literacy than their male counterparts. While many reasons account for this disparity, traditional societal norms play a significant role – older generations of women were more likely to stay home and rear children while men typically joined the workforce, granting them greater financial exposure.

Now, we have an opportunity and a responsibility to change this. Widespread financial literacy matters, but in our effort to educate the masses we can’t leave certain groups behind. By narrowing the knowledge gap, we can empower widowed women from and after the Silent Generation with a voice – we can give them a say in their own financial future.

Women will soon control half of accumulated Wealth

By 2026, women in Canada will control roughly half of all accumulated financial wealth, estimates Strategic Insights, up from one-third a decade earlier. While this is a welcomed shift, many women’s’ lack of core financial understanding and involvement is sobering. Too often, it’s men who assume a leading role in personal wealth management, specifically retirement and estate planning. This despite the fact that women, on average, survive their husbands by roughly five years. Yet, only 17 per cent of women in Canada over the age of 65 have an up-to-date will, according to a survey from LegalWills Canada. Continue Reading…

The Power of Low-Fee Core Bond ETFs in your Investment Portfolio

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By Alizay Fatema, Associate Portfolio Manager, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

The latest economic data unveils a captivating narrative of a strong and resilient economy in both Canada and the U.S. The current inflation stickiness and robust job market numbers make a solid case for the central banks in both countries to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Towards the end of September 2023, markets basked in record-high yields. However, earlier this month, based on the current situation in the Middle East, bond yields fell owing to an increase in demand for safer assets and caused longer-term bond prices to surge.  U.S. consumer prices remained elevated for the month of September and a pullback in demand for a treasury auction pushed longer-term yields higher again, resulting in 10-yr U.S Treasury yields touching their highest point since 2007. On the contrary, the recent CPI printed lower than expectations in Canada, yet the yields remain high as hot economic data continues to build pressure south of the border.

Source: Bloomberg

Given the current two-decade-high interest rates, yields on Aggregate Bond ETFs have surpassed 5%, making them an interesting avenue for fixed-income investors. Before we dive in further, let’s discuss some aggregate bond ETFs in detail along with their benefits.

Aggregate Bond ETFs as the Core of your Investment Strategy

Aggregate bond ETFs are exchange traded funds that aim to track performance of a diversified portfolio of bonds. These ETFs are referred to as core because it reflects their status as a foundational building block of a well-rounded investment portfolio. These ETFs can help investors achieve diversification, steady income & stability within their investment portfolios. BMO currently offers two Aggregate Bond ETFs:

  • BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZAG) aims to replicate the performance of the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index. This ETF primarily invests in a Canadian investment-grade fixed income securities consisting of Federal, Provincial and Corporate bonds, with a term to maturity greater than one year.
  • BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZUAG) tracks the performance of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. It invests in U.S. investment-grade bonds such as U.S. treasury bonds, government-related bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed pass-through securities, and asset backed securities with a term to maturity greater than one year. ZUAG is also offered as hedged to CAD (ZUAG.F) and in USD (ZUAG.U).

Source: BMO Asset Management.

These aggregate bond ETFs have proven to be an extremely viable investment solution owing to their key features:

  • The Symphony of Diversification: Aggregate Bond ETFs provide exposure to a broad spectrum of bond market offering diversification across the curve, various sectors and segments, maturities, issuers, and credit qualities; making them resilient for any market environment.

For example, in the current high-interest rate environment, exposure to short duration bonds might provide some down-side protection. On the other hand, if central banks start cutting rates, then longer duration can provide some upside potential.

Aggregate Bond ETFs can also be considered an equity market hedge. Given the inverse correlation between equities and bonds, they can provide a cushion against market turbulence and can potentially outperform stocks during selloffs.

  • Harnessing Cost Efficiency through Lower Fees: These ETFs are passively managed with the aim to track performance of the aforesaid indices. Their expense ratios are lower as compared to some actively managed funds, thereby reducing overall investment costs and improving net returns for investors. BMO is currently charging a Management Expense Ratio of 0.09% for both ZAG & ZUAG.  
  • Liquidity & Ease of Trading: Like all other ETFs, ZAG & ZUAG are traded on stock exchanges, enabling investors to easily buy and sell shares throughout the trading day, allowing them to see real-time prices. The bid-ask spreads on these products are lower in contrast with the underlying bonds which enhances their liquidity compared to traditional bonds, making them a cost-effective way to attain the exposure to the aggregate bond market.
  • Navigating Risk Management through High Credit Quality: Aggregate Bond ETFs are perceived as a stable and safer investment option as they provide exposure to investment-grade bonds, which are considered to have lower risk as opposed to high-yield or junk bonds. In the current rising interest rate environment, the credit quality & relative stability of the investment grade bonds make them an appealing choice for investors seeking to minimize risk & preserve capital.

Combined with the key features mentioned above, these Aggregate Bond ETFs provide investors with a low-cost core in any investment portfolio. They distribute monthly interest payments, providing a steady stream of income. These ETFs emphasize on preservation of capital and provide transparency and visibility into the funds’ composition and their underlying assets. Continue Reading…

Interview with Harvest ETFs CEO Michael Kovacs on how Retirees can generate income in volatile markets

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The following is an edited transcript of an interview with Michael Kovacs, CEO of Harvest ETFs, conducted by Financial Independence Hub CFO Jonathan Chevreau.

Jon Chevreau (JC)

Thanks for taking the time today, Michael. We all know that 2022 was a pretty bad year as markets were impacted by higher interest rates. That turbulence bled into much of 2023, although the last few weeks have seemed much rosier.

How do you respond to unitholders of funds who are currently down year over year? Does your covered call writing protect retirees?

Michael Kovacs

Michael Kovacs (MK)

Thanks for having me, Jon. It is important to remember that we offer equity income funds. That means that you have to look at the total return of the product, which includes the price of the ETF and its accumulating distributions.

Yes, there has been turbulence in 2022 and through much of 2023. However, over that period, products like the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income Fund (HHL) have paid consistent distributions.

Let’s look at the Harvest Diversified Monthly Income ETF (HDIF). In terms of actual returns, this ETF is down nearly double-digit percentage-wise in the year-over-year period (as of early November). But, when you look at the distributions paid over that same period, HDIF has delivered positive cashflow for its unitholders, which reduces the decline by more than half.

JC

Are you saying that between the covered calls, the distribution and the leverage plus the underlying equity income, that a retiree could expect annual yields as high as 10% or 12% or higher?

MK

Yes. Yields are anywhere from 1.5% to 3%, depending on the equity category. Then you have option writing. We can go right up to 33% on any of those portfolios, which generates additional yield. So, to be able to generate 9-10% is very achievable. And we’ve been able to do that consistently for a quite a few years now.

Jon Chevreau

JC

What is your view on the current interest rate climate? Have we reached a top? If so, when will they start to come down?

MK

Many of us remember the high interest rates of the 1980s, especially some of your readers who were trying to obtain their first mortgages. We have experienced a big jump in interest rates over the past two years. However, we believe that we have probably seen the top for rates for now. Or, if we haven’t, we are very close to the top. That means there are going to be some great opportunities in fixed-income markets. The next move for interest rates may be down by mid-to-late 2024.

That said, there are still great opportunities that will benefit equities and bonds in the current climate. Our first launch in the Bond area is the Harvest Premium Yield Treasury ETF (HPYT). We’ve launched with a high current yield. We are targeting long treasury bonds in this fund. This is about generating a high level of income while owning a very good credit-worthy security like a U.S. Treasury. So, if rates start declining next year, it is a great time to be holding fixed income.

JC

Findependence Hub readers tend to be retirees who want steady cash flow. What is Harvest’s view of cash flow for retirees?

MK

I think cash flow for retirees is essential. Once your employment income has gone, you must depend on your investments, your pensions, your CPP, and so on. The recent increases in interest rates have been good for retirees in the short term. Higher rates allow retirees to keep shorter-term cash and generate a safe yield of 5% or more.

Our longer-term equity products aim to have that heavy bias toward equities. For example, the Harvest Healthcare Leaders Income ETF (HHL) is typically written at about 25-28% average, with the other 70% or so fully exposed to health care stocks. The covered call option writing strategy allows us to generate a high level of income.

Cash flow is the basis behind our name: Harvest. People have spent decades building up capital, sowing the seeds. Our products allow them to harvest the fruits of their life-long labour.

We believe our equity-income and fixed-income products are a fantastic way to do that. If we can help you preserve capital and generate consistent income, we are doing our job.

JC

There is also interest among investors in asset allocation ETFs. Is HDIF essentially your answer to that demand?

MK

You’re correct. Some people prefer to allocate to specific funds, but the idea behind HDIF is to allocate to the best of Harvest’s top products that generate cash flow. In the case of HDIF, you do have a leverage component. You are increasing the yield but at the same time, you do increase your risk as well. Continue Reading…

Read these 2 books if you care about Democracy

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Joe Biden this week carrying a copy of Democracy Awakening, via Threads.

While the Hub’s focus is primarily on investing, personal finance and Retirement, Findependence has given me sufficient leisure time to absorb a lot of content on politics and the ongoing battle to preserve democracy and in particular American democracy. What’s the point of achieving Financial Independence for oneself and one’s family, if you find yourself suddenly living in a fascist autocracy?

To that end, I have recently read two excellent books that summarize where we are, where we have come from and where we likely may be going. These books came to my attention from two relatively new social media sites I joined in the past year.

For those who care, I am still on Twitter (now X) but restrict most of my posts there to the financial matters on which this blog focuses. I post there as @JonChevreau, which is the same handle I have on Mastodon (since Nov 6, 2022) and Threads, which I joined a week after its early July launch this summer. Threads is now almost the polar opposite of X politically, a veritable Blue haven: just last week Joe & Jill Biden both signed on as @potus and @flotus respectively, as well as under their real names. So did vice president Kamala Harris (posting as @VP and @kamalaharris).

Amazon.ca

But back to the books. The first must read is Prequel, by the brilliant U.S. broadcaster Rachel Maddow [cover image shown on the left]. Tellingly, it’s subtitled An American Fight Against Fascism.

The second is Democracy Awakening, by Heather Cox Richardson [cover shown below]. Both are available as ebooks on the Libby app, through (hopefully) your local library. I couldn’t find either book on Scribd (now called Everand) but they do have ebook Summaries of both.

An American Hitler?

Given that the 2024 U.S. election is now about 12 months away, there is a certain urgency to these books. The Maddow book I’d read first since it’s a brilliant historical recap of the rise of German Fascism in the 1930s and — the shocking bit! — how close Germany came to installing fascists in America. It’s literally about Germany’s search for an American Hitler it hoped to install. It’s full of sinister characters you’ve probably not heard about before, like the assassinated Huey Long.

Maddow credits the reader with enough intelligence to extrapolate from that period into the current dangerous environment. One is left to infer how she feels about the parallels to the modern GOP and its fascist leader and would-be dictator: she never says their names although she is usually more explicit in her MSNBC and podcast commentaries.

Modern readers could easily substitute Putin’s Russia for Hitler’s Germany and draw their own conclusions about the parallels to collusion with foreign powers.  There are also similarities between protracted attempts by the U.S. government to try the perpetrators in court and the protracted Delay tactics of the Defence — including many U.S. senators of the 1930s and early 1940s. And as is currently the case, these tactics largely seemed to work, since the Allies won World War II before most of the collaborators were brought to justice. Frustrating indeed, as many of today’s Americans bristled at the ultimate futility of the Mueller Report around 2019 and other protracted legal proceedings that may not be resolved before the 2024 election.

Maddow of course hints at this right at the end, quoting one frustrated prosecutor (O. John Rogge) from the 1940s:

“The study of how one totalitarian government attempted to penetrate our country may help us with another totalitarian country attempting to do the same thing …the American people should be told about the fascist threat to democracy.”

Continue Reading…