Hub Blogs

Hub Blogs contains fresh contributions written by Financial Independence Hub staff or contributors that have not appeared elsewhere first, or have been modified or customized for the Hub by the original blogger. In contrast, Top Blogs shows links to the best external financial blogs around the world.

Retired Money: What Asset Class charts can teach about risk and volatility

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column addresses a topic I have regularly revisited over the years: annual charts that help investors visualize the top-performing (and bottom-performing!) asset classes. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: Reading the “Annual Returns of Key Asset Classes”—what it means for Canadian investors. 

As the column notes, I always enjoyed perusing the annual asset classes rotate chart that investment giant Franklin Templeton used to distribute to financial advisors and media influencers. I still have the 2015 chart on my office wall, even though it’s years out of date.

Curious about the chart’s fate, I asked the company what had become of it, and learned it’s still available but now it’s only in digital format online. As always I find it enormously instructive. It’s still titled Why diversify? Asset classes rotate. As it goes on to explain, “one year’s best performer might be the next year’s worst. A diverse portfolio can protect your from downturns and give you access to the best performing asset classes this year – every year.”

The chart lists annual returns in Canadian dollars, based on various indexes.

Right off the top, you see that U.S. equities [the S&P500 index] are as often as not the top-producing single asset class. It topped the list five of the last nine years: from 2013 to 2015, then again in 2019 and 2021.

On the flip side, bonds tend to be the worst asset class. Over the 15 years between 2007 and 2021, at least one bond fund was at the bottom seven of those years: global bonds [as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index] in 2010, 2019 and 2021, US bonds [Bloomberg US. Aggregate Bond Index] in 2019, 2012 and 2017, and Canadian bonds [FTSE Canada Universe Bond index] in 2013. And consider that all those years were considered (in retrospect) a multi-decade bull market for bonds. You can imagine how bonds will look going forward now that interest rates have clearly bottomed and are slowly marching higher.

As you might expect, volatile asset classes like Emerging Markets [measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets index] tend to generate both outsized gains and outsized losses. EM topped the chart in five of the last 15 years (2007, 2009, 2012, 2017 and 2020) but were also at the bottom in 2008 and 2011. EM’s largest gain in that period was 52% in 2009, immediately following the 41% loss in 2008. Therein lies a tale!

The latest Templeton online charts also include a second version titled “Risk is more predictable than returns.” It notes that “Higher returns often come with higher risks. That’s why it’s important to look beyond returns when choosing a potential investment.” It ranks the asset classes from lower risk to higher risk and here the results are remarkably consistent across almost the entire 15-year time span between 2005 and 2021.

The missing alternative asset classes

This is all valuable information but alas, these charts seem to focus almost exclusively on the big two asset classes of stocks and bonds, precisely the two that are the focus of all those popular All-in-one Asset Allocation ETFs pioneered by Vanguard and soon matched by BMO, iShares, Horizons and a few others. Continue Reading…

Relationship between Inflation and Asset Price Returns

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By Myron Genyk,  Evermore Capital

Special to Financial Independence Hub

You see lots of people on business channels and investing blogs talking about the types of things to invest in when inflation is high – energy stocks, material stocks, value stocks, dividend growth stocks, floating rate bonds, inflation bonds, oil, copper, gold, silver, crypto, etc. OH MY! – and what types of investments you should avoid.  On the surface, it’s pretty reasonable advice. 

“Of course!!  I should be invested in something that does well when inflation is high!  Inflation is high now!  And everyone says it’s going to continue like this for a long time!  And I want my investments to grow!”  But before we go leaping and investing in whatever it is that’s great during inflationary times, let’s explore the soundness of the argument itself.

The Tautology of it all

I’m always a little amused when people say things like:

“When market variable X is high (or low), that will cause thing Y to happen, which will cause thing Z to occur, which will cause some asset A to go up (or down).  And so when market variable X is high/low/whatever, then buy (or sell) asset A.  Easy peasy!”

There’s a lot happening there, but at its core, it’s just a chain of events:  X leads to Y leads to Z leads to A going up (or down).  At each step, there are assumptions baked in, assumptions that aren’t exactly baked into the fabric of the universe, but let’s leave that for now.  Because what is more interesting here is that the expression above can be simplified as follows:

“When asset A is going to go up, you should buy asset A.”

This is much cleaner.  It removes all the unnecessary hand-waving (but, perhaps the hand-waving IS necessary … but by whom?  And for what purpose?) and lays bare what is actually being said:

“Buy things before they go up in value.” Continue Reading…

Retirement Options for Small Business Owners

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By John Shrewsbury, RICP

Special to Financial Independence Hub

As a small business owner who is emotionally, physically, mentally, and financially engaged in a growing startup, you may feel consumed in the now. So many small business owners put everything back into their company without setting aside their profits in a tax-efficient way. If you run your business without an eye to the future, you will never reach the point where work becomes optional. Your business is your vehicle to financial independence, but it won’t happen without years of careful preparation.  

The independence and freedom of your entrepreneurial path comes with an array of responsibilities. As the business owner, the weight of preparing for your retirement and the retirement of your employees falls entirely on your shoulders. After all, if you don’t plan for your retirement, who will? Start building retirement savings into your company budget and making it a part of your compensation for running the company.

Business owners in the U.S. have retirement options for many situations

As a small business owner, you have a retirement option for almost every situation. When choosing a plan, your most significant consideration is the cost of contributing. If you can only afford to set aside a small amount of money each year, an individual retirement account (IRA) will serve you well. 

A Simplified Employee Pension plan (SEP) is the equivalent of a jumbo IRA. This plan works best for self-employed entrepreneurs with few or no employees. You can contribute up to 25% of your compensation to a SEP, with a maximum of $61,000 per year allowable in 2022. Keep in mind that if you have eligible employees, an SEP requires you to contribute an equal percentage of their salaries to the percentage you contribute from your own revenue. For example, a business owner with an employee making $100,000 per year would have to contribute 25% of the employee’s salary if they want to maximize their own contribution at 25%. If you have a number of employees, a SEP will most likely be your most expensive option.  Continue Reading…

Planning for Longevity: How to avoid Retirement Hell

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I never thought that I would fail at retirement and end up in Retirement Hell. But I did.

You see, I spent my entire career – almost forty years- in the banking industry. While there, I learned a lot about money and investing and, over the years, I helped thousands of clients save for their own retirement. Furthermore, my wife is a financial advisor. And yet despite all that knowledge and expertise, I still managed to fail miserably at retirement.

Looking back, I now realize that many of my beliefs about retirement were wrong because they were all linked to the financial aspects of retirement. What I know for sure now is you just don’t fall into a happy retirement because you have a lot of money. You need financial security, of course. But designing a satisfying life takes thought, time and planning on many more levels. You need to know your needs and values, and what makes you happy, and then you have to find ways to satisfy these aspirations on a regular basis. Thinking that you will figure things out when you get there doesn’t work.

Traditional retirement planning has programmed us to think it’s all about the money, but it’s not. In conventional planning, the focus is always on the number: how much money you are going to need to retire. Few financial advisors/planners talk about the other important stuff: how you are going to replace your work identity, how you are going to stay relevant and connected, and how you are going to keep mentally sharp and physically fit, among other things.

Believe it or not most retirements fail for non-financial reasons rather than financial ones. I don’t want that to happen to you so for the past year and a half I along with five of my friends have been working on a new book — Longevity Lifestyle By Design — to help people design a life they would be happy to wake up too.

Retiring from work is simple. Figuring out what you are going to do with the rest of your life is the hard part.

Our mission is to help improve the transition to retirement and help retirees to design a life that they look forward to living everyday.

We know that many people are going to struggle with the non financial challenges that can often accompany retirement. It happened to me, my colleagues and through my discussions with other retirees discovered that it also happened to many of them as well. Continue Reading…

Issues that arise when Financing your Small Business yourself

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Photo Credit: Unsplash

By Beau Peters

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

When you get an idea for a new business, it’s easy to want to launch it right away. It might seem like a “now or never” situation, and your eagerness makes it nearly impossible to think about waiting a year or two to get things running.

However, it’s not uncommon for small business start-ups to cost thousands of dollars. Applying for small business loans can take time, and if you’re worried about launching quickly, you might be tempted to bankroll your business and use your own money to finance it.

Unfortunately, that’s a risky move. While it might seem like an investment, it could be a bad idea for a small business looking to grow.

If you’ve got a great idea for a small business and you’re anxious to launch it, you already know the importance of funding. However, it’s just as important to recognize some of the risks of financing it on your own. Let’s talk about what that might look like, and some issues that often arise when you’re putting in your own money to get things off the ground.

Mixing Business and Personal Funds

One of the biggest problems that can arise when you finance your small business yourself is drawing a line between your personal funds and what you’re spending on the business. It might not seem like a big deal for the two to commingle, especially if you’re starting out as the only employee. Some of the most common ways of commingling funds include:

  • Using one bank account for business and personal needs
  • Moving money back and forth between accounts
  • Depositing personal money to pay for business expenses
  • Withdrawing from your business account to pay for personal expenses

Not only can commingling funds get confusing, but it could put both your business and your lifestyle at risk. First, if your business is listed as an LLC, you could end up being held personally responsible for any business debts or lawsuits. You’ll also risk your personal assets being exposed.

One of the easiest ways to keep yourself from commingling funds is to dedicate a separate bank account to your business. Even if you end up putting some of your personal money in there for funding, you’ll be less likely to tap into it for personal reasons, and it will be easier to keep things organized and easy to understand, especially when tax season rolls around.

Ignoring the Fine Print

Financing your small business yourself doesn’t always mean reaching into your own pocket. It could simply mean you’re taking other routes to fund your idea, rather than relying on a bank or small business loan.

One popular option nowadays is crowdfunding. In the United States, over $17 billion is generated each year through crowdfunding sites. If you need money quickly, setting up a crowdfunding campaign is a great way to get it while encouraging people to get excited about your new business. It can be a solid marketing tool if you invest some time into it.

However, don’t ignore the fine print when it comes to these campaigns.

There are several different sites and platforms that allow you to ask for money. Each of them has a different set of rules and regulations. Some might require a small percentage of whatever you make. Others will charge a fee. Even if you understand that part, make sure you know what you’re liable for if you reach your funding goal. Many platforms require you to offer incentives to people willing to donate or pledge. It’s important to follow through on those incentives. Not only could you end up getting reported and lose some of your funding, but it’s a bad look for your business if you don’t give the people helping you out what they deserve.

If you decide to go with a crowdfunding site, make sure you understand the rules and are willing to stand by them, whether you make your goal or not.

Not Building your Skills

When you’re starting a business, you have to wear many hats. You might have a great idea, but you’re going to have to learn how to market yourself, deal with accounting, work with technology, and even how to hire the right people. In addition to the hard skills you’ll need, there are plenty of soft skills small business owners should have, including:

  • Leadership
  • Strong communication
  • Organization
  • Emotional intelligence

Not only are these skills important for running your business, but they’re necessary if you’re trying to work with angel investors or you want to secure venture capital. Refining your soft skills can make it easier to communicate with potential investors. By communicating clearly and effectively and showcasing your leadership skills, they’ll be more likely to trust your business plan and your projections. Continue Reading…