Victory Lap

Once you achieve Financial Independence, you may choose to leave salaried employment but with decades of vibrant life ahead, it’s too soon to do nothing. The new stage of life between traditional employment and Full Retirement we call Victory Lap, or Victory Lap Retirement (also the title of a new book to be published in August 2016. You can pre-order now at VictoryLapRetirement.com). You may choose to start a business, go back to school or launch an Encore Act or Legacy Career. Perhaps you become a free agent, consultant, freelance writer or to change careers and re-enter the corporate world or government.

What Fritz Gilbert learned writing 400 blogs on Retirement

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TheRetirementManifesto.com

 

By Fritz Gilbert, TheRetirementManifesto

Special to Financial Independence Hub 

On April 12, 2015, I published my first post.

In the nine years since I’ve kept writing… and writing…and writing.

I’ve published 428 articles about retirement (see my Archives page).  If you do the math * …

…I’ve written the equivalent of 11 books over the past 9 years. *

(* The Math: 1,500 words per post x 428 posts = 642,000 words.  The average 200-page book is 60,000 words, so that’s ~ 10 books.  Add in the actual book I wrote, and it’s equivalent to 11 books in 9 years.)

And yet, with all of the writing, I’ve missed something.

I’ve never taken the opportunity to step back and think about what I’ve learned from all of my writing.

During our recent RV trip to the Ozarks, I took some time to reflect, and today I’m sharing the most important things I’ve learned through my years of writing articles about retirement.

I suspect the most important lesson may surprise you.  But I’m getting ahead of myself…

I’ve written the equivalent of 11 books in the past 9 years, all on retirement. What’s the most important thing I’ve learned in the process? Share on X

What I’ve Learned Writing 400 articles about Retirement

Reflecting on the past 9 years of writing has been an interesting trip down memory lane.

  • The first 3 years, as I was preparing for retirement.
  • The middle 3 years, as I was making the transition.
  • The final 3 years, as I figured it out.

It’s all there.

The 428 articles are like pebbles I’ve sprinkled on the trail, helping those in my footsteps find their way.  I’m thankful I decided to experiment with blogging.  It’s turned into something I love.

But what have I learned?

Image created by Fritz Gilbert on Pinterest

What I’ve Learned about Retirement

  • Retirement is Complex:  Any topic that can fill 11 books has more layers than an onion. Don’t underestimate how complex retirement is.  Yes, we all expect the financial complexity (Bucket Strategies, Roth Conversions, Safe Withdrawal Rates, Estimated Quarterly taxes, Asset Allocation, etc.).  What’s been more surprising to me is the complexity behind the non-financial aspects of retirement.  Working through your experiments to determine how to replace all those non-financial aspects you once received from work (Sense of Identity, Purpose, Structure, Relationships).  As complex as the financial issues are, I would argue the non-financial aspects are more so. Be prepared for ebbs and flows as you go through your retirement transition, you’re entering a maze that’s more complex than most people realize.
  • Retirement can be Difficult:  I’ve gotten hundreds of emails from readers telling me their stories, and I’ve read every one.  Many are stories of the difficulties you’re having adjusting to retirement.  Your stories led me to research the Four Phases of Retirement and realize how blessed I was to be in the 10-15% of retirees who skip the dreaded Phase II.  As you’ll read in the next bullet, I’m convinced there’s a proven way to make retirement less difficult, and I’m fortunate that I chose the right path.
  • There are Proven Ways to Make it Easier:  I was 3 years from retirement when I started this blog.  I’d seen some of my friends struggle with the retirement transition, and I was obsessed with learning why some people have great retirements, whereas others struggle. I was motivated to find the path that led to success and was fortunate to discover it. I’m convinced it wasn’t merely luck, but rather a result of the extensive planning my wife and I did in my final few years of work.  If there’s one trick I’ve learned to make retirement less difficult, it’s the importance of putting in the work to prepare for the transition before you cross The Starting Line. Focus on the non-financial aspects as much (or more) as you do the financial ones.  To understand how I approached the challenge, check out The Ultimate Retirement Planning Guide, which lays out all the steps starting 5 years before you retire.
  • Retirement Changes with Time:  I’ve often said that retirement is like marriage – you never really know what it’s like until you do it.  As I thought about what I’ve learned from writing so many articles about retirement, I realized there’s another parallel between marriage and retirement.  Just as your marriage will evolve over the years, so too will your retirement.   The honeymoon is great, but it doesn’t last forever.  Working through the challenges that surface is one of the fun parts of both marriage and retirement.  No retirement (or marriage) is perfect, but there’s a lot you can do to make it the best experience possible.  Learn to experiment, learn to follow your curiosity, and learn to maintain a positive attitude.  If there’s one piece of advice I’d give to help you deal with the changes that occur throughout your retirement, it is to embrace, nurture, listen to, and follow your curiosity wherever it leads.
  • Retirement can be the Best Phase of your Life:  We all want great retirements, right?  I’m grateful that retirement is the best phase of my life.  Many of you can say the same.  But …. there is a large percentage of folks who can’t.  If you’re struggling, I encourage you to study those in the first camp.  Listen to what they talk about, and observe what they do.  Chances are good you won’t hear much talk about money.  As I wrote in The 90/10 Rule of Retirement, if you’ve done your planning correctly you won’t worry much about money after you retire.  By studying the 72% of happy retirees,  you’ll find the common themes of Curiosity, Purpose, Relationships, Fitness, and Planning.   Focus on doing those things well, and you’ll find, like many others, that retirement can be the best years of your life. It’s interesting to realize how many of those commonalities relate to the non-financial aspects of retirement.  In my experience, it’s in those areas where you’ll find true joy. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Sun Life enters the Decumulation market

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks in-depth at a new “Decumulation” offering from Sun Life, unveiled late in September. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: What is Sun Life’s new decumulation product?

As you can see from image below taken from MyRetirement Income’s website, the emphasis is on providing regular income to last to whatever age a retiree specifies. That income is not, however, guranteed as a life annuity would be.

The Globe & Mail’s Rob Carrick first wrote about this shortly after the Sun announcement. My column adds the opinions of such varied Canadian retirement experts as author and finance professor Moshe Milevsky, retired actuary Malcolm Hamilton, Caring for Clients’ Rona Birenbaum and Trident Financial’s Matthew Audrey, as well as Sun Life Senior Vice President, Group Retirement Services, Eric Monteiro.

Some of the more cynical takes are that this is a way for Sun Life to continue to profit from client financial assets gathered during the long accumulation phase, rather than seeing them migrate to other solutions, such as annuities provided by either one of its own life insurance arms or that of rivals.

Aiming for Simplicity and Flexibility

As Sun’s Eric Monteiro told me in a telephone interview, the company’s preliminary research found that rival products that were first on the market (see full MoneySense column) were often perceived as complicated, and as a result uptake of some of these pioneering Decumulation products have been underwhelming. It sought to create a solution that was relatively simple and flexible.

In essence, it is not dissimilar to some Asset Allocation ETFs, such as Vanguard’s VRIF, which is 50% equities and 50% fixed income. But Sun’s product may and probably will have different proportions of the major asset classes. In fact, it lists 16 external global money managers who deploy up to 15 different asset classes, which include Emerging Market Debt, Liquid Real Assets, Direct Infrastructure, Liquid Alternatives and Direct Real Estate. Managers include BlackRock Asset Management, Lazard Asset Management, Phillips, Hager & North, RBC Global Asset Management and its own Sun Life Capital Management. Continue Reading…

Canada’s Great Companies make the HLIF ETF worth consideration

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Image courtesy Harvest ETFs
By Ambrose O’Callaghan, Harvest ETFs

(Sponsor Blog)

Many Canadians are watching closely as their neighbour to the south prepares to hold a crucial Presidential election in November 2024.

Meanwhile, Canada’s federal election is still more than one year away. Canada continues to contend with economic, social, and political issues that are faced in varying degrees by its partners in the G7. These issues include managing immigration, aging populations, and housing affordability. Its central bank also seeks to strike a balance in monetary policy after raising interest rates to combat inflation.

In this piece, we’ll look at how the Canadian economy has fared over the past year. Moreover, we will look at an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offers exposure to Canada’s great companies. Let’s jump in.

Where does Canada stand in the fall of 2024?

From an economic standpoint, Canada finds itself in a difficult predicament. The OECD chart below illustrates that Canada has fallen behind many of its peers in the post-COVID-19 pandemic era.

 

Source: Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2024 Household Dashboard, accessed October 6, 2024.

Canada’s Real GDP per capita ranking compared to its peers, especially stand outs like the United States and Italy, has been abysmal. This is coupled with dismal employment statistics that have shown rising unemployment. Even positive jobs data is skewed by government hiring in some cases.

Indeed, unemployment in Canada has climbed from a low of 5% in 2022 to 6.5% in its latest reading. Royal Bank of Canada Deputy Chief Economist Nathan Janzen recently stated that unemployment would continue to rise to 7% by early 2025. That is nearly a percentage point higher than pre-pandemic levels.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is in a tough spot as it battles a weak economic environment and a housing supply shortage that has kept prices elevated. Now, the BoC finds itself in a position where it will need to employ further interest rate cuts. However, in doing so, it runs the risk of re-inflating the housing price bubble.

Why should you trust Canadian companies?

Canada has been in a rut economically in recent years. However, the forward price-to-earnings ratio difference between the S&P TSX 60 and the S&P 500 show that publicly traded Canadian companies still offer attractive value at this stage. Continue Reading…

Bonds: The Comeback Kid

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Image by Shutterstock, courtesy of Outcome

By Noah Solomon

Special to Financial Independence Hub

A change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that’s all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed
‘Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

Won’t Get Fooled Again. The Who;  © Abkco Music Inc., Spirit Music Group

 

As inflation rapidly accelerated towards the end of 2021, bond yields woke up from their decade plus slumber breathing fire and brimstone. Subsequently, bonds have once again become a worthwhile asset class for the first time since the global financial crisis.

I will explore the historical behaviour and characteristics of bonds. Importantly, I will also discuss how they have reclaimed some of their status as a valuable part of investors’ portfolios.

Riding the Roller-Coaster for the Long Term

Notwithstanding that stocks have periodically caused investors some severe nausea during bear markets, those who have been willing to tolerate such dizzy spells have been well-compensated. In Stocks for the Long Run, Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel states “over long periods of time, the returns on equities not only surpassed those of all other financial assets but were far safer and more predictable than bond returns when inflation was taken into account.”

As the following table demonstrates, not only have stocks outperformed bonds, but have also trounced other major asset classes. The effect of this outperformance cannot be understated in terms of its contribution to cumulative returns over the long term. Over extended holding periods, any diversification away from stocks has resulted in vastly inferior performance.

Real Returns: Stocks, Bonds, Bills, Gold and the U.S. Dollar: 1802-2012

With respect to stocks’ main competitor, which are bonds, Warren Buffett stated in his 2012 annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:“Bonds are among the most dangerous of assets. Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal … Right now, bonds should come with a warning label.”

The Case for Bonds

Notwithstanding that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, the preceding table begs the question of why investors don’t simply hold all-stock portfolios. However, there are valid reasons, both psychological and financial, that render such a strategy less than ideal for many people.

The buy-and-hold, 100% stock portfolio is a double-edged sword. If (1) you can stick with it through stomach-churning bear market losses, and (2) have a long-term horizon during which the need to liquidate assets will not arise, then strapping yourself into the roller-coaster of an all-stock portfolio may indeed be the optimal solution. Conversely, it would be difficult to identify a worse alternative for those who do not meet these criteria. Continue Reading…

To Hedge FX Risk, or not to Hedge

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To Hedge FX Risk, or Not to Hedge: Currency markets are notoriously difficult to call but can meaningfully impact portfolio returns. ETF Strategist Bipan Rai provides a detailed framework for investing outside the Canadian market.

Image Getty Images courtesy BMO ETFs

By Bipan Rai,  BMO Global Asset Management

(Sponsor Blog)

Admittedly, using a spin on a famous Shakespeare quote to start a note on currency hedging1 is verging on trite. Nevertheless, if Hamlet were running a portfolio of overseas assets, his primary concern would have to be the “slings and arrows” of currency markets — which are notoriously difficult to call but can meaningfully impact portfolio returns.

For Canadian investors, looking abroad provides several benefits. The most important is diversification, whether it’s through access to other regions that are less correlated with Canadian markets or to other products that aren’t available domestically.

However, investing abroad also means taking on foreign exchange risk given that international assets are priced in currencies other than the Canadian dollar (CAD).

For illustrative purposes, consider Chart 1, which shows the total return for the S&P 500 in U.S. dollars (USD) and in CAD terms for Q1 of this year. In USD terms, the index was up 10.6% over that time frame, but since that period also corresponded to weakness in the CAD relative to the USD (or USD/CAD moved higher) the index outperformed in CAD terms (up 13.3%). That means that Canadian investors would have fared much better leaving their USD exposure unhedged ex ante.

Chart 1 – S&P 500 Total Return for Q1 2024

Source: BMO Global Asset Management

Now let’s look at an alternative period in which the CAD strengthened against the USD. Chart 2 shows a comparison of the total return for the S&P 500 from April 2020 to April 2021 (in which USD/CAD was lower by over 11%). During that period, the total return index outperformed in USD terms by close to 20%. In this scenario, an investor who had hedged their FX risk would have been in the optimal position.

Chart 2 – S&P 500 Total Return Between April 2020 – April 2021

Source: BMO Global Asset Management

As these examples show, currency risk is a key consideration for any investor who wants to look beyond Canada for diversification. That risk can cut both ways, which amplifies the importance of hedging decisions. In our minds, the decision to hedge foreign exchange (FX )risk (including the degree to which foreign exposure is hedged) comes down to the following:

  1. An investor’s view of the underlying currency pair
  2. Whether the currency pair is positively or negatively correlated2 with the underlying asset

In this note, we’ll make a brief comment on the first point but focus largely on the second one. as we feel that should be given more weight for hedging decisions.

FX Markets are Tough to Call

Taking a view on the underlying currency pair is easy to do — but difficult to capitalize on.

Indeed, foreign exchange markets are notoriously fickle. One reason why is the relationship between predictive factors and currency pairs is rarely stationary. For instance, a lot of market participants tend to use front-end (2-year) yield spreads as a proxy for central bank divergence in the spot FX market. Chart 3 shows the current correlation between those spreads and the different CAD crosses, and as expected, the relationship isn’t consistent from a cross-sectional perspective.

Chart 3 – Correlation Between Two-Year Spreads and the CAD Crosses

* * Correlation window is 2 years. The CAD is used as a base currency for this analysis. The spread is tabulated by subtracting the foreign 2-year yield from the CAD 2-year yield. Source: Bloomberg, BMO Global Asset Management.

We can also see this by looking closer at the relationship between a factor and a currency pair over time. Chart 4 shows the rolling 100-day correlation between USD/CAD and the price of oil (proxied by the prompt WTI contract3) going back ten years. Note how frequently the strength of the correlation (as well as the sign) changes over time. Continue Reading…