Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

Get Income at the Short End

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Franklin Templeton/iStock

By Brian Calder,

Franklin Bissett Investment Management

(Sponsor Content)

Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide: that could be the description of the 2022 investor year. It has been a difficult 2022, and many investors are looking to enhance their cash positions while preserving capital, given market volatility and rising interest rates. In this environment of high inflation, higher rates, and slow economic growth, an ultra-short duration bond strategy could be timely.

The major equity and bond markets have been hit hard this year by geopolitical shocks, fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, and sluggish growth. Rapid and aggressive moves by major central banks to increase interest rates resulted in a flat or inverted bond yield curve and contributed to elevated market volatility. An inverted yield curve means that interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than those of long-term bonds. For instance, on October 6, 2022, the yield on the three-month Government of Canada bond was around 3.68%, while the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond was 3.34%.

An inverted yield curve is often seen as a pessimistic market signal about the prospects for the wider economy in the near term. Bond markets have priced in even more interest rate hikes from central banks like the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve.

So, rather than thinking about being ‘ahead of the curve,’ it may be time for investors to be at the front of the curve.

These challenging market conditions are ideal for an ultra-short-duration bond strategy. Duration is a number that’s used to measure how sensitive a bond’s price is to changes in interest rates:  how much the price is likely to change as rates change. The longer the duration, the greater the sensitivity to shifts in interest rates for a bond. Understanding the use of duration can help an investor determine the position of bonds in a portfolio.

Time for short-term thinking

At the front end of the federal government bond yield curve, opportunities are available for investors because the curve remains flat in the middle and at the back end. A yield comparison of the Canadian market as of August 31, 2022, showed that an ultra-short duration strategy outperformed three-month Treasury bills and was competitive with one-year to three-year government bonds. Because short-term yields are less sensitive to rate hikes, they can be more protected and stable, plus they are not as exposed to potential drawdowns like those seen in strategies with longer-term exposures.

Also, an ultra-short duration strategy can be less volatile than longer bonds (see chart).

 

Continue Reading…

Retirement, Meet Target Date Funds: The opportunities, and how they work

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By Brian See, Evermore

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Target date funds are a fantastic investment tool, particularly for Canadians who are saving for retirement. Despite their benefits, though, they have not been made widely available to the masses yet.

If we look at our U.S. neighbor, target date funds are already taking off. In fact, target date funds hit a record US$3.27 trillion in assets in 2021, up from $52 billion in 2020. The market value speaks for itself: target date funds are here to stay, and they’re growing in popularity.

When it comes to retirement, there are many Canadians who don’t save long-term because it seems out of reach. In fact, about 1 in 3 Canadians have never saved a dime for retirement even though the majority of Canadians have expressed concern about not having enough money in retirement. To boot, record-high inflation is leading Canadians to fear a retirement crisis, and 72% of Canadians believe saving for retirement is ‘prohibitively expensive.’

We have seen target date funds play out well in the U.S. If Canada is able to further adopt this form of investing to the market, we can close this retirement investing accessibility gap.

In order to understand the opportunities that target date funds provide for investing for retirement, it’s important to break down how they work.

How Target Date Funds work

At their core, target date funds are a one-stop-shop for long-term saving and investing. Target date funds use a systematic or rules-based asset allocation where the mix of stocks and bonds changes over time as you approach the target date. The funds are a mix of stocks and bonds that increase and decrease their risk levels according to the person’s age. This “glide path” model increases risk as you’re younger, and decreases risk as you get closer to retirement because, simply put, you’ll need that money to draw upon in retirement! Target date funds are also easy to choose. You simply pick the year you want to retire and select the target date fund with that year.

Of course, with any investment strategy, there are risks. The inherent risk here is that you are investing in the market. Stocks and bonds go up and down: they ebb and flow but in the long term, markets have increased in value. A key feature of target date funds is that they are diversified across asset classes, geographies and sectors, and that diversification helps whether there is a downturn in the market or not. Target date funds weather the storm. Continue Reading…

Keep calm and dividend on

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By Mark Seed, myownadvisor

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The markets are down, inflation remains hot, and interest rates are moving higher.

Are you worried?

I’m really not that worried.

I’ve been preparing for higher interest rates for years, well before the pandemic.

Case in point: this post is literally from five years ago. 

Where am I going???

Well, readers of this site will know I’m a big fan of companies that reward shareholders with dividends.

And why not love dividends?

Although I use a few indexed products in my investment portfolio, for extra diversification just in case, getting paid on a consistent, growing basis from Canadian and U.S. stocks: that’s a beautiful thing. I got another raise this week that I’ll link to below!

Digging deeper, I’m not that worried about the markets or inflation right now. There is a reason why dividends matter to me. Why do dividends really matter?

Beyond the Canadian dividend tax credit, beyond consistent payments and ever growing income I’ve experienced to date, dividends help me stick to my plan.

There is no financial advisor in my plan, nor fees paid to any advisor in my plan.

There is no day trading, there are no wasted fees or losses for trading.

There is no wild market speculation, I’m not trying to time anything.

I focus on my savings rate for investing and I invest more money when I have it. It’s that simple. 

Recall that dividends paid is real money paid from real company profits. Buying and holding an established company that has paid dividends for decades is a good sign (at least from a historical perspective) that this company had enough cashflow to reward shareholders and stay in business.

Companies that don’t pay dividends tend to use their money for other means, grow their business; make acquisitions or buy back shares, pay down risky debt, therefore driving the stock price higher over time.

These are not poor management decisions by any means: far from it. There are lots of ways shareholder value is created and to be honest, acquisitions, share buybacks and other company reinvestments could be better company decisions in the long-run!!

When it comes to the capital gains versus dividend income debate, there really isn’t a debate to be had, since every dollar you earn in capital gains from a stock is worth just as much as your dividend dollar paid. I love the graphic shown at the top of this blog.

Continue Reading…

MoneySense Retired Money feature on Canada’s new “Tontine” Retirement solutions

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the revolutionary “Tontine” type Retire Solution announced by Guardian Capital and finance professor Moshe Milevsky earlier this month. My initial take was here on the Hub and the more in-depth MoneySense feature story can be viewed by clicking on this highlighted headline: Tontines in Canada — Moving from Theory to Practice as a solution to our Retirement Crisis.

We’ve illustrated this blog with financial projections of one of the three new Guardian Capital Retirement solutions developed in partnership with Milevsky. Some of the ideas were adapted from Milevsky’s latest book: How to Build a Modern Tontine. The theory behind this book is a driving force for Guardian Capital’s efforts to commercize these concepts and put them in the hands of retirees and would-be retirees worried about outliving their money. Nobel Laureate Economist William Sharpe has described this as “the nastiest, hardest problem in finance.”

Milvesky’s book is certainly aimed at industry practitioners and sophisticated financial advisors and investors, and contains a lot of mathematics that may beyond the reach of average investors or retirees. So rather than attempt to review it, we’ll move on to the efforts to bring these ideas to the market. What Milevsky calls “tontine thinking” is belatedly showing up in the marketplace in Canada, starting last year with Purpose Investments’ and now with three different solutions from Guardian Capital. Hub readers also can read an excerpt of the book which ran earlier Wednesday: Longevity Insurance vs Credits — a Primer.

All this has been a long time coming. MoneySense readers may recall two of my Retired Money columns about Milevsky and the future of tontines published in 2015: Part one is here and part two here. Also see my 2018 column that explains tontines in detail: Why Ottawa needs to push for tontine-like annuities.

Last June (2021), Purpose got the tontine ball rolling in Canada with its Purpose Longevity Fund. Here’s my MoneySense take on that one: Is the Longevity Pension Fund a cure for Retirement Income Worries? 

As the MoneySense feature explains, Milevsky is Guardian Capital’s Chief Retirement Architect. It sums up the original 2021 launch of Purpose Longevity Fund, and how it compares to Guardian’s three solutions.

Think of Purpose’s product as a lower-case tontine, and Guardian Capital’s as a Tontine with a capital T.

Guardian Capital’s Modern Tontine  

Guardian Capital’s September 7th press release uses the term “Modern Tontine.” There, Guardian Capital Managing Director and Head of Canadian Retail Asset Management Barry Gordon said “With our modern tontine, investors concerned about outliving their nest egg pool their assets and are entitled to their share of the pool as it winds up 20 years from now … Over that 20-year period, we seek to grow the invested capital as much as possible to maximize the longevity payout.”

 Along the way, investors who redeem early or pass away leave a portion of their assets in the pool to the benefit of surviving unitholders, boosting the rate of return. “All surviving unitholders in 20 years will participate in any growth in the tontine’s assets, generated from compound growth and the pooling of survivorship credits. This payout can be used to fund their later years of life as they see fit, and aims to ensure that investors don’t outlive their investment portfolio.” Continue Reading…

Longevity Insurance vs. Credits: A Primer

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This guest blog is excerpted from Moshe Milevsky’s recently published book, How to Build a Modern Tontine

By Prof. Moshe A. Milevsky, Ph.D.

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I have been asked about the difference between a tontine – be it modern or medieval – and a conventional life annuity, purchased from a regulated life insurance company. Both might appear to perform similar tasks at first glance, but the differences are subtle and important and get to the essence of the distinction between longevity insurance versus longevity (or survivorship) credits.

One aspect of the life annuity story is the financial benefit of risk pooling, and the other is the insurance benefit and comfort from having a guaranteed income that you can’t outlive. Allow me to elaborate with a statement that some readers might find shocking. If you are 75 years old with $100,000 in your RRIF and would like to guarantee a fixed annual income for the rest of your life, there is absolutely no need to purchase a life annuity from an insurance company to achieve that goal. There are other options.

This might sound like something odd for a long-term annuity advocate to say. But the fact is that a non-insurance financial advisor can design a lovely portfolio of zero-coupon strip bonds that will do the job. That collection of bonds will generate $4,000 per year for the rest of your life, even if you reach the grand old age of 115. Ok, financial advisors need to eat too, so they may not do it for $100,000, but I’m sure that a lump sum of $1,000,000 will pique their interest and in exchange you will get $40,000 per year.

Moreover, with these strips, if you don’t make it all the way to the astonishing age of 115, they will continue to send those $4,000 (or $40K) to your spouse, children or favourite charity until the date you would have reached 115, if you had been alive. This collection of strips would be completely liquid, tradeable and fully reversable, although subject to the vagaries of bond market rates. For this I have assumed a conservative, safe and constant 2.5% discount rate across the entire yield curve, which isn’t entirely unreasonable in today’s increasing environment.

Stated technically, the present value of the $4,000 annual payments, for the 40 years between your current age 75 and your maximum age 115, is exactly equal to $100,000 when discounted at 2.5%. Yes, those numbers and ages were deliberately selected so my numerical example rhymes with the infamous 4% rule of retirement planning but has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Now, I’m sure you must now be thinking (or even yelling) “Moshe, but what if you live beyond age 115, eh? You will run out of money!”

Touché. Let’s unpack that common knee-jerk reaction to non-insurance solutions for a moment. To start with, the probability of reaching age 115 is ridiculously and unquantifiably low. If you do happen to be the one in a 100 million (or perhaps billion) that reaches age 115, I suspect you will have other things on your murky mind. Personally and post-covid, there is a very long list of hazards that worries me more than hitting 115.

Nobody really “runs out of money” in this century

Second and more importantly, nobody really “runs out of money” in retirement in the 21st century. That is plain utter fear-mongering nonsense. With CPP, OAS/GIS, the elderly will continue to receive some income for as long as they live even if they have completely emptied every piggy bank on their personal balance sheet. In fact, with tax-based means-testing you might get more benefits if you actually do empty your bank accounts.

Ok, so back to my prior claim and the supporting numbers, if you want a guaranteed (liquid, reversable, bequeathable) income for the rest of your life, you can exchange your $100,000 for a bunch of strip bonds and voila, you have created a sort of pension plan. My point here is that the primary objective isn’t a guaranteed lifetime of income: which anyone can create with a simple discount brokerage account and a DIY instruction manual. Continue Reading…