Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

Horizons Asset Allocation ETFs for better asset allocation

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By Dale Roberts, Cutthecrapinvesting

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Yes that is an ironic headline. While many of the asset allocation or one ticket ETFs are quite similar, Horizons asset allocation ETFs stand out. For starters as you may know, the ETFs used within these portfolios are held within a corporate structure that do not pay out taxable distributions. They primarily use swap-based ETFs to create the portfolios. That will enable greater tax efficiency with respect to withholding taxes on foreign dividends.

With the shackles of unwanted tax hits removed Horizons TRI (Total Return Investments) one ticket ETFs can create the most efficient mix of Canadian, US and International equities and bonds. They do not have to worry about how an over weighting to US equities might create those tax inefficiencies.

I had the pleasure of chatting with Mark Noble, the Executive Vice President, ETF strategies for Horizons. The general topic was building the Balanced Portfolio for the times. Will the traditional Balanced Portfolio be able to cut it moving forward? Certainly the classic 60/40 portfolio model is built upon studies from decades past. We’ll get to that later in this post.

I had also looked at the subject and offered the New Balanced Portfolio. Not surprisingly, you’ll find mention of Horizons asset allocation ETFs in that post.

The 70/30 is the new 60/40.

It might all start with the stock to bond ratio. With bond yields so low, their contribution is likely to be much less compared to the last few decades. Good bonds might be there as risk managers but their total contribution is likely to be quite muted. How low can yields go? The question might end up being ‘how negative’ can rates go? While lower rates might deliver some higher prices, the bonds would then paint themselves into a corner with no yield to offer. It’s a Catch-22.

We might need a greater allocation to growth – more stocks.

Horizons Balanced Portfolio is 70% stocks and 30% bonds. Here’s the make up of that portfolio – ticker HBAL.

On September 10, 2020 the breakdown (rounded figures) …

  • 40.8% US stocks
  • 19.6% International stocks
  • 10.0% Canadian stocks
  • 19.7% Canadian bonds
  • 9.7% US bonds (treasuries)

The target stock to bond ratio for the Balanced Portfolio (HBAL) is 70/30.

Mark had explained how the largely embraced 60/40 model is built on studies and data from the 70’s and 80’s. The portfolio design was based on looking at the long term Sharpe ratio (risk/return profile) of owning equities from many decades past.

Over the last 20 years the optimal risk return mix has moved closer to 70% stocks and 30% bonds. HBAL offers a 70/30 allocation vs. Vanguard’s VBAL of 60/40. It results in a better return trajectory. And once again, those lower yielding bonds add another reason to slightly stretch the stock allocation if we want or need to eke out some greater gains. Keep in mind that you will be taking on some greater equity risk.

I have long been a proponent of the Balanced Growth Portfolio model. I describe that as the sweet spot, delivering ‘optimal’ risk adjusted returns. Continue Reading…

How world travellers are adapting to Covid restrictions

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Japan Airlines flight crew departing from Dallas in March, 2020. Dale Knight is in blue, without the mask.

By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The COVID restrictions have been very difficult for those of us world travelers in the Early Retirement Community. We have had friends stuck for months in Europe, The Philippines, and Peru, among other countries.

We who travel as a lifestyle have found our footloose approach to life… encumbered, to say the least!

Here we have a travel update from one of our World Traveling Buddies, Dale Knight.

Take a look.

RetireEarlyLifestyle: You have been a world traveler now for decades, Dale. How have these COVID travel restrictions affected your traveling lifestyle?

Dale Knight: It’s been devastating, as I’m sure it has for anyone who is passionate about travel.

Since March, I’ve had to cancel six trips previously booked through the end of 2020. I had plans to travel to SE Asia, then Australia and New Zealand…  a Europe trip in August that included London, the Balkans and Paris… German Christmas markets in November, skiing in Japan in December.

All cancelled.

It’s as if a year of my life has been snatched away.

RetireEarlyLifestyle: Where were you when COVID started to shut the travel world down?

Cherry blossom season in Kyoto, Japan

Dale Knight: In mid-March, I flew to Japan with plans to spend four days visiting friends in Sapporo before continuing on to Thailand. I was in Sapporo when Thailand abruptly closed its border to all International arrivals.

What to do?

I flew to Tokyo for a couple of days, then took the train to Kyoto, where the cherry blossoms were in full bloom. Perfect timing! It was delightful, and everything at that time felt “normal” in Japan. People were out and about, bars and restaurants were open.

At the same time, the US was seeing a surge in COVID cases, and I began to hear from friends in Dallas about a strict lockdown. They warned that I might not be able to get back. I debated on whether or not to just stay in Japan but decided to return to Dallas.

That was not the best decision. In hindsight, I’d rather have spent more time in Japan.

RetireEarlyLifestyle: Have you done any traveling recently? Where have you gone?

Dale Knight: I tried a couple of road trips in the US  … The Oregon coast in June and Colorado in August. Those trips sort of scratched that travel itch, but in many ways it was still very frustrating. Hotels didn’t provide housekeeping services for one thing.

Traveling solo, I like to find a local bar or pub and chat with the locals. That is very difficult when everyone is behind a mask, and you have to sit off by yourself. The lone exception was in Laramie, Wyoming, where I happened upon a small friendly bar where nobody was wearing a mask. Some might think risky, but to me it was refreshing.

Twice I have gone to Mexico, meeting up with friends in Puerto Vallarta and then to the little beach town of Chacala to meet up with you and the Chapala gang. Just last week, I returned after a month in Mexico. – Two weeks with you and Akaisha and friends in Chapala. It was a wonderful time.

The gang’s all here in Chacala, Mexico

 

RetireEarlyLifestyle: Is the “whole world” shut down or only certain places?

Dale Knight: For Americans, it does seem like the whole world is shut down. Australia, New Zealand, and almost all of Asia are completely off-limits, probably through the end of the year. Same with most of Europe. There are a few exceptions like Croatia, Ukraine, Serbia, Belarus – each is open with different entry requirements, such as needing a negative COVID test within so many hours of your departure or arrival.

Turkey is also open to Americans, and Tanzania in Africa. Several Caribbean Islands are open as well as Brazil and Ecuador in South America. At the same time, many US states require quarantine for out-of-state visitors and Canada is closed to Americans.

It’s a constantly changing dynamic and I follow blogs as well as the IATA Travel Centre website to stay up-to-date.

RetireEarlyLifestyle: How do you see the future of travel?

Dale Knight: I’m afraid it will be a long time before we return to the way it was just six months ago.

In 2019 a record 1.5 billion people worldwide traveled internationally. This year, the numbers have fallen off a cliff, with estimates of up to 80% decline. Countries that are heavily dependent on tourism such as Thailand, have made the choice of safety over the economy. They are being overly cautious about reopening borders.

I think we may have to accept COVID testing and quarantines as part of our traveling future. If a vaccine is ever developed, you might have to carry a card much like the Yellow Fever vaccination card, to show you are ok.

RetireEarlyLifestyle: Is it easier in some places to get around versus other locations?

Dale Knight: When I was in Japan, it was easy to get around. Flying to Mexico and getting around Mexico is easy.

However, within the US, right now I cannot go to several states — mainly in the Northeast — without quarantining for 14 days. Before embarking on a road trip, I had to check each state’s restrictions to make sure I wouldn’t have to isolate in a hotel room. Attempting to go to Europe is difficult and even to those handful of countries allowing Americans, it requires planning, testing and possible quarantine.

RetireEarlyLifestyle: How has it been in the airports you have flown? What is different? Both flying into Puerto Vallarta, Mexico and out of Guadalajara, Mexico.

Dale Knight: Airports are pretty busy. People are flying and going places. The main difference is that the wearing of masks is strictly enforced both at airports as well as on the aircraft. Food and beverage service is minimal — or not at all — with the US airlines. My most recent flight was with the Mexican airline Volaris, from Guadalajara to Dallas Fort Worth. Flight attendants come through the cabin with a cart of beverages and snacks. Immigration was a breeze at both Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: How Vanguard’s 4% targeted payout on VRIF makes it easier for retirees to draw income

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My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at Vanguard Canada’s new targeted 4% annual payout vehicle for retirees and near-retirees, provided by its new VRIF ETF. You can find the full article by clicking on the highlighted headline: The lowdown on Vanguard’s Retirement Income ETF: can you rely on its 4% payout target?

The Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio [VRIF/TSX] started trading Sept. 16th and offers retirees and near-retirees a 4% targeted — as opposed to guaranteed — payout. See also the Hub’s republication of Robb Engen’s preview on VRIF that appeared first on his BoomerandEcho site.

Positioned as a “Decumulation” product for retirees and near-retirees, it’s probably no coincidence that the 4% target is nicely in line with the long-established 4% Rule discussed on the Hub and MoneySense earlier this summer.

While a targeted return is NOT a guarantee – unlike the guaranteed but puny rates paid by GICs these days – Vanguard expects it will attract a fair amount of money from income-oriented investors suffering sticker shock when their GICs mature. Currently, many 1-year GICs pay around 0.5%, ranging from as little as 0.3% to no more than 1.1%. Even going out to 5-year terms, they’re typically paying only 1.4%, ranging from under 1% to 2% in the best case.

Technically, those GIC returns are “guaranteed”  but a cynic might say they’re guaranteed to lose money on an after-tax, inflation-adjusted “real return” basis. Based on recent statements by the Bank of Canada and US federal reserve, this is not likely to improve before 2023. In the UK there are even renewed whispers of negative rates.

Of course, to achieve the 4% targeted payout, investors still have to bear some stock-market risk. VRIF consists of eight existing Vanguard stock and bond ETFs with an asset mix of roughly 50% stocks and 50% bonds.

VRIF has much lower fees than comparable income mutual funds and income ETFs

Monthly income mutual funds and ETFs have been around for years but as is typical, Vanguard aims to be the low-cost leader in the category. With such tiny returns from the fixed-income component, those costs are an important determinant of how much money is left for investors. The full MoneySense article recaps the fees relative to existing income mutual funds and income ETFs. Continue Reading…

Vanguard’s VRIF: Your new single-ticket Retirement Income Solution

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Two years ago, Vanguard launched a suite of asset allocation ETFs that changed the game for DIY investors in their accumulation years. These balanced ETFs provide low-cost, global diversification, and automatic rebalancing with just one fund.

On Wednesday (Sept 16), Vanguard announced another evolution in the asset allocation ETF space with a new product aimed at retirees in the decumulation phase. The Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio, or VRIF, uses global diversification and a total return approach to provide steady monthly income at a target payout rate of 4% per year.

ETF TSX Symbol Management fee Target annual payout
Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio VRIF 0.29% 4%

Saving for retirement is by far the number one objective for investors and Vanguard believes that space is well covered with their now flagship products like VEQT, VGRO, and VBAL. An investor in his or her accumulation phase could simply move down the risk ladder, switching from VEQT to VGRO to VBAL as they get closer to retirement age.

But what to do with your ETF portfolio in retirement? It’s a question I get every time I mention the benefits of investing in asset allocation ETFs. Prior to today, the answer was to sell ETF units as necessary to meet your spending needs or rely on smaller, quarterly distributions of around 2% per year.

With VRIF, investors get a predictable monthly income stream (targeted at 4% per year) to help meet their regular spending needs and not have to worry about rebalancing and/or selling ETF units.

Indeed, you could think of VRIF as the retirement equivalent of VBAL.

Vanguard Retirement Income ETF Portfolio (VRIF)

VRIF is a single-ticket income solution. It’s a wrapper containing eight underlying Vanguard ETFs that offer global exposure to more than 29,000 individual equity and fixed income securities.

Related: Top ETFs and Model Portfolios in Canada

Here’s a look under the hood of VRIF:

Asset class ETF Weight
Canadian equity VCN 9.0%
Canadian aggregate fixed income VAB 2.0%
Canadian corporate fixed income VCB 24.0%
Emerging markets equity VEE 1.0%
U.S. fixed income (CAD-hedged) VBU 2.0%
U.S. equity VUN 18.0%
Developed ex North America equity VIU 22.0%
Global ex U.S. fixed income (CAD-hedged) VBG 22.0%

Here is the geographic breakdown of VRIF’s holdings:

  • Canada – 35%
  • United States – 20%
  • Developed ex North America – 44%
  • Emerging markets – 1%

VRIF focuses on a total return approach using an approximate asset allocation of 50% equity and 50% fixed income. This approach allows the portfolio to payout from capital appreciation in years when the portfolio yields fall below the target.

A total-return approach is more tax-friendly because VRIF can distribute from capital appreciation. In that case, only the difference between the cost basis and the sale price is taxed. Meanwhile, the full dividend distribution from underlying securities is taxable.

Vanguard highlights the transparency of VRIF and its underlying holdings, saying because its building blocks are clear, you always know what you’re investing in and why, adding that regular monitoring and rebalancing helps maintain exposures across key sub asset classes and risk levels.

VRIF’s 0.29% management fee (before taxes) is roughly one-third the cost of any comparable monthly income mutual fund in Canada. Costs matter, especially to retirees with sizeable portfolios who are looking to keep more of their returns and protect their investment base. Continue Reading…

Preparing for Retirement: Understanding new spending patterns

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BoomerandEcho.com

Last time we talked about boosting retirement savings during your final working years. In an ideal world you’ll have the double-effect of being in your peak earning years while your largest financial obligations are in the rear-view mirror.

In the real world, however, many Canadians are faced with an uncertain retirement because they lack adequate savings, don’t have a company pension plan, they’re still carrying a mortgage, line of credit, or even (gasp!) credit card debt, or they’re still providing financial support to their adult children.

Preparing for Retirement

Much like preparing for a new addition to the family, or for one spouse to stay home with the children full-time, preparing for retirement is about understanding new spending patterns.

If your final working years aren’t spent in savings overdrive mode, perhaps there’s time to test out your retirement budget in the year or two before you retire. You might as well try living on 40 – 60% of your income while you’re still working to see if it’s realistic.

If it’s not, there’s still time to adjust course by altering your income expectations, working longer (and saving more), or revisiting your investment strategy. Speaking of which …

Investing in Retirement

One of the biggest worries for retirees is outliving their money. That’s why it’s crucial to have a proper investment strategy in retirement. Investors don’t simply sell their stocks and move to bonds, GICs and cash once they retire. Canadians are living longer and our portfolios need to be built to last.

One strategy to consider is the bucket approach. The idea is that while retirees need cash flow, they also need a diversified portfolio of stocks and fixed income. Your first bucket is for immediate needs and should contain one or two years’ worth of living expenses in easy-to-access cash. Bucket two is for medium-term needs and is filled with bonds or GICs. Bucket three is meant for long-term needs and so it’s typically filled with stocks, ETFs, or index funds.

Also read: A better way to generate retirement income

Understanding CPP and OAS benefits

Whether you think you’ll rely on government benefits or not, it’s important to understand how CPP and OAS benefits work and how they might impact your retirement income plan.

The maximum monthly payment amount for CPP in 2020 is $1,175.83 [if taken at 65], but the average monthly amount for new beneficiaries is actually $696.56. You can take CPP as early as 60, but the amount is reduced by 0.6% for every month you receive it before 65.

Alternatively you can delay taking CPP until as late as age 70. In this case your pension amount will increase by 0.7% for each month you delay receiving it up to age 70. Continue Reading…