Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

TFSA room may jump to $6,000 in 2019 but is the TFSA right for you?

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By David Miller, CFP, RFP

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

2019 TFSA limits will likely see an increase to $6,000 for 2019, up $500 from $5,500 in 2018. But is taking advantage of the TFSA the right choice for you?

The big story

Most Canadians still don’t understand the TFSA or know if it’s the right type of account for them. More room is great but according to the CRA in 2015, only 10% of Canadians are currently maximizing their TFSA limits1.  Also, the CRA has looked to collect over $75 million in past audit penalties over improper use of the TFSA2.

The history

Starting in January 2019, annual TFSA room of $6,000 will be provided to each Canadian resident over the age of 18. Since 2009, Canadian residents have been able to contribute a small portion of their after-tax savings into this tax-free account. If you still are paying taxes on interest, dividends or capital gains on your investments in a non-registered account, it’s time to review the TFSA. If no contributions had been previously made, your TFSA room accumulates over time and a full $63,500 contribution could be made January 1, 2019.

The contribution you make today can grow without any tax implications in the future. If you over contribute, the CRA will penalize you 1% per month on any amount over the approved threshold. A best practice is to check first with the CRA to determine your personal TFSA limit for the calendar year.

Improper use

If you accidently, or purposefully, over-contribute to your TFSA, the CRA will impose a 1% per month penalty on the overage. This may be overstating the obvious, but over-contributing is a bad idea. You would have to reasonably expect your investments to grow higher than 12%/year (assuming simple math with a January 1stcontribution) to break even. Having TFSAs at two or more institutions may be a way you lose track of your contribution room. Ensure you check with the CRA to understand your annual TFSA contribution limit.

Another example of improper use could be frequently trading stocks within the TFSA, aka ‘day trading.’This may be considered a  ‘business activity,’ as perceived by the CRA and you could be taxed personally on all the income, dividends and capital gains.

Spousal successor

An important but often overlooked benefit to utilizing a TFSA is as an estate planning feature: the spousal successor declaration. Continue Reading…

Is every day a Saturday in Retirement?

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Is every day a Saturday in retirement? That’s what behavioural scientists Dan Ariely and Aline Holzwarth claimed in a recent study about retirement income. The premise being that when you’re no longer working 40 hours a week (or more) all of a sudden you have 40 hours a week available to spend money. Every day is like Saturday. Not to mention, many of the things your employer used to pay for, such as coffee, a smart-phone, or gym membership, now falls on you.

The study’s conclusion? Retirees should expect to spend as much as 130 per cent of their preretirement income after they retire. Yikes!

That flies in the face of typical retirement planning advice, which pegs the income replacement rate at around 70 per cent of your preretirement income. A lot of expenses should disappear when you reach retirement age. Hopefully your kids have left home, and your mortgage is paid off. You’ll no longer have payroll deductions for income taxes, CPP, and EI. Say goodbye to the long, soul-crushing commute, along with the expensive business attire.

Because of these reasons (and others) some retirement experts, like Fred Vettese, even champion a much lower retirement income target of 50 per cent of your income.

On the flip side, in this article about money myths, financial advisor Kurt Rosentreter seems to concur with the Ariely / Holzwarth study:

All the old retirement planning textbooks said you could expect to live off less than your working income (e.g. 70 per cent). The reality of what we are seeing in the trenches doing this work everyday is that there are three phases: Age 60 to 70 where we are seeing as high as 110 per cent of pre-retirement spending; age 75 to age 85, where costs can drop to 80 per cent after the first spouse death; and costs in the final phase of age 85 onward that can be lower or higher depending on health care.

This study resonated with me because one of my biggest fears about retirement is that I’ll overspend and completely blow my carefully planned budget.

Overspending is one of the biggest Retirement fears

Why is that a fear?

We do spend more money on the weekend. That’s when we do our shopping, our leisure activities, and when we go out for dinner. Weekends can be expensive!

Continue Reading…

The (Renewed) Case for GICs

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**This is a sponsored post written by me [Robb Engen] on behalf of EQ Bank. However, as always, all opinions are my own.

A guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) is unlikely to spark an exciting dinner party conversation but when stock markets are reeling, like they were earlier this year, investors often seek safe havens to wait out the storm. Cash is king for those who don’t have the stomach to watch their portfolio plunge in value, and GICs at least offer the promise of a modest return.

Back in February 2009, when the global financial crisis had just about reached rock-bottom, 30-year-old me was scrambling to meet the RRSP deadline and bought a five-year GIC. It was a costly mistake in hindsight. The Toronto Stock Exchange surged ahead for the next five years, earning annual returns of 9.52 per cent, while my five-year GIC earned an average annual return of 2.75 per cent.

Instead of turning my $7,000 contribution into nearly $10,000, I only had $7,800 to show for my decision. At the time, though, I thought the GIC was a smart move because I had to make a quick decision on what to do with my contribution, and the stock market still looked downright nasty.

Why invest in GICs?

The truth is there’s nothing wrong with stashing your savings inside the comfort of a GIC. Here are four times when it makes good sense to put your money in GICs:

1.) When your entire portfolio is sitting in cash, waiting for “the right time” to get into the market

If you’re the type of investor who can’t ignore the doom-and-gloom economic headlines, and who’s convinced that a market meltdown is always imminent, maybe the stock market isn’t right for you.

Having your retirement savings constantly sitting in cash and earning nothing is like sitting on the fence and being paralyzed to move for fear of making the wrong decision at the wrong time.

A GIC ladder, which might involve purchasing equal amounts of one, two, three, four, and five-year terms, will maximize your risk-free returns and still give you the option of dipping your toes in the market each year when one of the terms comes due.

2.) When your investing strategy boils down to chasing last year’s winning stocks or mutual funds

If you’re the type of investor who’s constantly looking for the latest fad, you might be falling victim to the behaviour gap – the difference between investment returns and investor returns.

Consider that, according to DALBAR, from 1986 to 2016 the S&P 500 Index averaged 10.16   a year, but the average equity fund investor earned just 3.98   a year.

When you think about our poor investor behaviour, coupled with sky-high mutual fund fees (at least, here in Canada), those investors who just can’t help themselves might be better off parking their savings in the best five-year GIC and earning a guaranteed return. Continue Reading…

Stock portfolio management and planning for your Heirs

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Our work with stock portfolio management clients sometimes gives us a window into problems that can arise with the death of parents and the distribution of their personal belongings and financial assets.

For instance, siblings may assume they were supposed to get particular items of jewelry or furniture. When they learn that somebody else asked first, they can harbour a grudge that can last for decades.

Planning for your heirs: Head off sibling conflict with frank discussions

The best way to spare your family this problem is to head it off while you’re still alive. Tell your kids that you want to be fair to everybody. Ask them to send you a note or an email to express interest in any particular article. But don’t put too much emphasis on who asked first, and don’t feel you need to rush into making a list of who gets what. Some of your children may be slow to think of what items matter most to them. Or they may feel shy about asking for them.

Everybody should understand that if one child gets valuable household items from the estate, they may wind up receiving less cash.

Unpaid loans from parents can also cause dissension. Sometimes adult children run into money problems and wind up having to sell their home, for instance. Later, they may want to borrow the down payment to buy another home. If you grant that request, don’t simply write a cheque.

Instead, have a lawyer register a mortgage on the new home for the full amount of the loan. Explain to your child that this protects the money from attachment by creditors if new money problems come along, and keeps it in the family. You should also be aware (no need to mention it to your child) that this step also keeps the money in the family in the event of divorce.

Dissension can also arise when a child stays in the family home long after his or her siblings have moved out. Living at home and taking care of a parent can hold a child back from career advancement, and may get in the way of the child’s social or romantic life. But siblings may see it as simply taking advantage of free room and board. If you think it’s appropriate, you may want to add a line or two in your will that acknowledges the personal contribution of the stay-at-home child.

It’s hard to avoid all tension that grows out of these all-too-human conflicts. But if you think about them and talk about them with your children, things will go much more smoothly than if you leave them for the kids to sort out on their own.

Planning for your heirs: Invest based on your heirs’ timelines

If you have substantially more money than you’ll need for the rest of your life, and you plan to leave the excess to your heirs as part of your retirement planning, it makes sense to invest at least part of your legacy on their behalf. That is, invest based on their time horizon, not yours. And above all, choose investments with our Successful Investor philosophy in mind.

For instance, if your heirs are in their 40s, your retirement planning should involve holding at least part of your portfolio in a selection of investments that would suit investors in their 40s, and that follow our Successful Investor approach. Of course, you’d still want to invest conservatively. But you’d want to take advantage of the many years that 40-somethings have till they reach retirement age. Continue Reading…

Resilience in the face of Market Volatility

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By Fritz Gilbert,

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The market’s been a bit “wobbly” in the past few days, in case you haven’t noticed.

We shouldn’t be surprised, and we shouldn’t worry.

Today, I’ve chosen to talk about market volatility, and how we should think about volatility in terms of our overall retirement plans.

As I write these words, the S&P 500 was down another 2%, on top of a 3.3% decline yesterday.

Down 5% In Two Days.  Yep, that’s volatility.

Here’s the 5-day chart:

Down … down … down.

But, it’s no big deal

Funny thing about markets, they’re volatile.  As Ben Carlson wrote last Friday, the market has averaged a daily drop in excess of 3% three times per yearsince 1928.  So, we should expect “Big Down Days” on a regular basis, even if we haven’t seen too many of them lately.  One interesting note is that 80% of those “Big Down Days” occur during a market correction or bear market.  Makes sense, but it can and does happen during Bull markets, as well.

Here’s what I posted on Twitter after the Big Down Days last week:

I’ve no idea where things will go from here. In all honesty, I really don’t care.  I know markets will go up, and markets will go down, and we’d be naive to assume otherwise as we plan for our retirement.  I don’t check the market daily, and I don’t worry about daily volatility.

Markets Go Up, And Markets Go Down. Make sure you prepare for volatility as part of your retirement plan.

Let’s Be Real.  The CAPE ratio continues at abnormal highs, which increases the likelihood of subpar performance over the coming years.  I’m expecting it, and I’ve incorporated it into our retirement withdrawal strategy. As of October 16th, after two consecutive down days of 2%+ declines in the S&P 500, the CAPE ration remains at a level of 30.80, well above historical norms of 16.6, as shown below:

We’re being unrealistic if we expect the market to continue an uninterrupted upward trend, especially in light of today’s high valuations. Volatility is real, so make sure you incorporate it into your retirement plans.

One Day’s Decline = One Year Of Withdrawals

As I thought about the market’s move on October 10, I realized that the 3%+ move was equivalent to an entire year’s Safe Withdrawal Rate, and I sent the following Tweet:

Resilience In The Face of Market Volatility

Rather than worry about the volatility, Be Resilient.  Think about volatility before you retire, and incorporate your strategy for volatility into your retirement planning.

As part of our retirement planning, we have to be realistic to the fact that markets will face volatility.  They always have, and they always will.  It’s the way the world turns, and we’re well advised to plan accordingly.   It’s why I built my Bucket Strategy as my primary plan for Retirement Income, and it’s the reason I really don’t worry as the market ebbs and flows over any given day.  In fact, I don’t even watch the market dynamics on a day-to-day basis.

On a long-term basis, it doesn’t really matter.

I don’t watch the market on a day-to-day basis. I know our Bucket Strategy will cover all but the worst Bear Market. Click To Tweet

Markets will be volatile. 

It’s the nature of The Beast.  Plan for it, and have sufficient funds to absorb a significant market downturn should it happen in the early years of your retirement.

Best to plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

Fritz Gilbert is the Founder of The Retirement Manifesto, a Plutus Award winning blog dedicated to helping people Achieve A Great Retirement.  After 30+ years in Corporate America, most recently as a Commodity Trader, Fritz retired as planned in June 2018 at Age 55.  He and his wife are looking forward to extended travel and “giving back” to their community through charitable work in retirement. This blog was published on his website on Oct. 16, 2018 and is republished here with his permission.