Decumulate & Downsize

Most of your investing life you and your adviser (if you have one) are focused on wealth accumulation. But, we tend to forget, eventually the whole idea of this long process of delayed gratification is to actually spend this money! That’s decumulation as opposed to wealth accumulation. This stage may also involve downsizing from larger homes to smaller ones or condos, moving to the country or otherwise simplifying your life and jettisoning possessions that may tie you down.

6 steps to avoiding a bear market near Retirement

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By Fritz Gilbert, TheRetirementManifesto.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Did you know a looming Bear Market Crisis is approaching?!

I just read it on the internet, so it’s got to be true!

To make matters worse, I just retired a month ago.

Uh Oh!  (Am I screwed?)

Today, some reality about Bear Markets, along with 6 steps to consider as you structure your retirement portfolio.

A Looming Bear Market

Ok, I’m having a bit of fun with the “read it on the internet” line, but the reality is that a Bear Market WILL happen. I’m not being prophetic, just stating the facts.  Since before the days of the tulip mania in 1637, bear markets have always been will us, and they always will.  We’ve benefited from a very nice bull run. We’re being naive if we think that it will never end.

Since 1900, we’ve had 32 Bear Markets, defined as a correction of 20% or more.  Do the math, and that averages out to a Bear Market every 3.7 years.  The average bear market lasts 367 days (the longest was 34 months!). Here’s what they look like graphically:

The Looming Bear Market Will Drive A Retirement Crisis

I actually did read an article on the internet about the looming bear market crisis.  In “The Next Bear Market In Stocks Will Drive A Retirement Crisis,“ the author states:

“A recession could decimate even substantial retirement portfolios.”

Further, the author goes on to say that Social Security and Medicare, and the resulting increase in taxes, increase in eligibility age and reduction in benefits “would be a disaster” for those dependent on the safety net.

Add to that the Voices Of Worry over the global debt pile up and the underfunded status of many state & local pension funds and things could get really, really ugly.

Maybe I shouldn’t have retired early. 

Too late now, I guess I’d better get to work on building a Bear Market Crisis Prevention Plan.

The Looming Bear Market Crisis

We all know a Bear Market is coming. It’s been an increasing theme in the blogosphere, with even the esteemed Financial Samurai taking risk off the table. America’s wealthy are moving to cash.  Ben Carlson of A Wealth of Common Sense has 36 Obvious Investment Truths to remind folks that you should protect yourself.

I’m not a panic-driven investor, screaming a scare tactic headline to drive traffic (tho, if you’re reading this, I guess it worked, right?).  Rather, I’m reminding folks of the reality of how the markets work and encourage you to think about it as you develop your retirement portfolio strategy.  Yes, stocks have historically outperformed over the long-term, and will likely continue to do the same.  Just recognize that the road can be bumpy, and plan accordingly to avoid getting bitten by a bear when you can least afford it.

A Bear Market Crisis Contingency Plan

The reality is that bear markets have always been with us, and always will.  Unfortunately, we never know when that snake is going to strike, so it’s best to wear snakeproof boots along the path of retirement.  Following are some steps I’m taking, as an early retiree, to defend our portfolio against the risk of a bear attack.  View them as suggestions, and pick and choose as appropriate for your situation.

6 Steps To Bear Market Protection Continue Reading…

Boosting Retirement Savings during your final Working Years

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Whether you’re a late starter or seasoned saver, the five years or so leading up to retirement just might be the most crucial time to get your finances in order.

Most retirement-ready checklists suggest your final working years is a time to double-down on retirement savings. The idea being that major financial burdens, such as paying down the mortgage and raising children, should be behind you and those savings can be parlayed into big contributions to your retirement nest egg.

High-income earners should look to their unused RRSP contribution room and contribute as much as possible in their final working years. This has the added benefit of generating big tax returns, which can be reinvested into your RRSP or used to pay down any outstanding debts.

Procrastinators have a final chance to break any bad spending habits and set their finances straight. The first step is to draw up a financial plan. Make it a top priority to pay down any remaining debt and get spending under control. You should then have a rough idea when debt-freedom is in sight and from there decide how long to continue working to meet your retirement savings goals.

Retirement income target

The often-used retirement income target is 70 per cent of your final pay, meaning if you earned a $100,000 salary in your final working years then you should aim for a retirement income goal of $70,000 per year. But new research suggests a more realistic retirement income target may be closer to 50 per cent.

Regardless, you’ll need to find YOUR retirement number and determine whether you can reach your income goals through some combination of workplace pension, personal savings (RRSP, TFSA, non-registered investments), CPP, OAS, and/or GIS.

Piecing that puzzle together takes a lot of planning (and still plenty of guess work). No wonder choosing a retirement date can seem like such a daunting challenge!

Taking advantage of your final working years

Continue Reading…

Is typical retirement advice good? – Testing popular Retirement rules of thumb

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By Ed Rempel, CMA, Fee-for-Service Planner

Special to the Financial Independence Hub 

You want to retire soon. How should you set up your retirement income?

You talk with some friends, read about it on the internet, and talk with a financial advisor. Are you actually getting good advice?

When it comes to retirement income, most financial advisors rely on a few rules of thumb handed down from one generation of advisors to the next. The rules appear to be common sense and are usually accepted without question.

Do these rules of thumb actually work?

Before giving clients this advice, I tested them with 150 years’ history of stocks, bonds and inflation. I wanted to see if these rules were reliable for a typical 30-year retirement. (The average retirement age is 62. In 50% of couples that reach their 60s, one of them makes it to age 92.) 

These five rules are the “conventional wisdom” – the advice typically given to seniors:

  1. “4% Rule”: You can safely withdraw 4% of your investments and increase it by inflation for the rest of your life. For example, $40,000 per year from a $1 million portfolio.
  2. “Age Rule”: Your age is the percentage of bonds you should have. For example, at age 70, you should have 70% in bonds and 30% in stocks.
  3. “Sequence of returns”: Invest conservatively because you can’t afford to take a loss. You can run out of money because of the “sequence of returns.” You can’t recover from investment losses early in your retirement.
  4. Don’t touch your principal. Try to live off the interest.
  5. Cash buffer: Keep cash equal to 2 years’ income to draw on when your investments are down.

The results: NONE of these rules of thumb are reliable, based on history.

Let’s look at each to understand this.

1.) “4% Rule”: Can you safely withdraw 4% of your investments plus inflation for the rest of your life?

Based on history, the “4% Rule” was safe for equity-focused investors, but not for most seniors.

In the results shown in the graphic at the top of this blog, the blue line is the “4% Rule,” showing how often in the last 150 years a 4% withdrawal plus inflation provided a reliable income for 30 years.

The “4% Rule” only works with at least 50% in stocks.

The “4% Rule” worked only if you invest with a minimum of 50% in stocks. Even safer is 70-100% in stocks. It is best to avoid a success rate below 95% or 97%. They mean a 1 in 20 or 1 in 30 chance of running out of money during your retirement.

Most seniors invest more conservatively than this and the 4% Rule failed miserably for them.

A “3% Rule” has been reliable in history, but means you only get $30,000 per year plus inflation from a $1 million portfolio, instead of $40,000 per year.

These results are counter-intuitive. The more you invest in stocks, the safer your retirement income would have been in history.

To understand this, it is important to understand that stocks are risky short-term, but reliable long-term. Bonds are reliable short-term, but risky long-term. Why? Bonds get killed by inflation or rising interest rates. If either happens during your retirement, you can easily run out of money with bonds.

The chart below illustrates this clearly. It shows the standard deviation (measure of risk) of stocks, bonds and cash over various time periods in the last 200 years. Note that stocks are much riskier short-term, but actually lower risk for periods of time longer than 20 years.

Stocks are more reliable after inflation than bonds after 20 years.

Ed’s advice: Replace the “4% Rule” with “2.5% +.2% for every 10% in stocks Rule.”  For example, with 10% in stocks, use a “2.7% Rule.” If you invest 70% or more in stocks, then the “4% Rule is safe.

2.) “Age Rule”: Your age is the percentage of bonds you should have. For example, at age 70, you should have 70% in bonds and 30% in stocks.

Continue Reading…

The Case for Financial Assets over real estate

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Billy kicking back on Mexico’s Pacific Coast

By Billy Kaderli

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

When I was a stock broker in California — one of the hottest housing markets in the US — real-estate was my competition. “Everyone” was making money in real-estate, so why would they invest in the stock market?

I needed an angle

I went to the Board of Realtors and got prices for 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom homes in the area, both at the current price and for 10 years prior. I did the math to calculate what annual return these houses were creating for that ten-year span, then compared that to the S&P 500 Index for the same time period.

The index clearly beat all three home styles without the hassles of ownership. Now I had my argument to help people invest in the market.

Ok, that was then and this is now

Using Zillow.com I looked up what the home we used to own was now worth. It was listed at US$862K. Again I did the math and found that over the last 31 years since we bought it, that house has appreciated 6.4% annually. Sounds OK, except that there were property taxes, maintenance and repairs that would need to be deducted lowering that annual return.

Then, I wondered, what if we had put the money to buy our home into the S&P 500? So I calculated that figure also.

Are you ready?

It would be worth 3 million (US) dollars today! Over three times the current value of the home, as the Index produced a 10.46% annual return during those 31 years. Continue Reading…

FP: A look at three retirement income planning software packages

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My latest Financial Post column looks at a few retirement income planning software packages that help would-be retirees and semi-retirees plan how to start drawing down from various income sources: Click on the highlighted text to retrieve the full article: How you draw down your retirement savings could save you thousands: this program proves it.

There may be as many as 26 distinct sources of income a retired couple may encounter, estimates Ian Moyer, a 40-year veteran of the financial industry and creator of the Cascades program described in the article.

When he started to plan for his own decumulation adventure, five years ago, he felt there was very little planning software out there that was both comprehensive and easy to use. So, he hired a computer programmer and created his own package, now called Cascades.

While the main focus of the FP article is on Cascades, (available to financial advisors for $1,000 a year; do it yourself investors can negotiate a price directly), the article also references a couple of other programs we have looked at previously here on the Hub: Doug Dahmer’s Retirement Navigator and BetterMoneyChoices.com, the latter currently nearing the end of beta testing.

Dahmer has been writing guest blogs on decumulation here at the Hub almost since this site’s founding in 2014. See for example his most recent one, or the similar articles flagged at the bottom: Top 10 Rules for Successful Retirement Income Planning.

Dahmer says he’s pleased that others are waking up to the need for tax planning in the drawdown years: “Cascades provides a very good, easy-to-use introduction to these concepts.”

Planning for peaks and valleys in spending

Retirement Navigator’s Doug Dahmer

However, Dahmer would like an approach that doesn’t assume yearly spending remains relatively static: his Better Money Choices(available on line for $108 a year) allows for the “peaks and valleys” of spending as retirees pass through their Go-go to their slow-go and finally their “no-go” years.  Most retirees have to plan for sporadic large purchases like renovations or replacement of roofs or furnaces, plus of course vacations with widely varying price tags. Each spending peak represents a tax challenge, while the valleys are where the tax planning opportunities exist. Dahmer likens Better Money Choices to a gym monthly membership and Retirement Navigator to a personal trainer.

Personally, I found going through both firm’s programs a fascinating exercise, very much like putting together a jig saw puzzle. For me, Better Money Choices helps you visualize the final picture you’re trying to assemble, showing how much money you’ll need and when you’ll need it. Cascades provides vivid yearly snapshots of your year-by-year progress in putting the pieces together.