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The great migration to Cash: Money Market and Short-Term Fixed Income

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Image from Pixabay: Alexander Lesnitsky

By Matt Montemurro, CFA, MBA, BMO ETFs

(Sponsor Content)

One of the biggest trends in the market, thus far in 2023, has been the flurry of inflows ($AUM) into money market and short-term fixed income. We have seen a “great migration to cash” as investors are literally being paid, handsomely, to park cash on the sidelines. We are now 6 months through the year and flows into the short end do not seem to be slowing down. Thus far YTD, we have seen $5.7bln flow into money market and ultra short-term fixed income ETFs, accounting for over 50% of all flows into fixed income ETFs in 2023 (Source: NBCFM ETF).

Money Market and Ultra Short-Term Fixed Income:  after years of being a forgotten segment of the market, how and why are they the leading asset gatherer?

With the accelerated path of rising rates, we have seen in the short end of the yield curve; (the overnight rate) the yield curve inverted. An inversion of the yield curve is caused when shorter-term rates rise faster than longer-term rates. Generally, this is something that occurs but reverses quite quickly.

Not this time. We are currently in a period of a prolonged yield curve inversion, which could be a leading indicator of economic weakness to come. This inversion is exactly what these money market and ultra short-term fixed income investors are looking to cash in on. Lock in higher shorter-term rates and take advantage of the inverted yield curve.

For too long, investors were forced to move outside of investment grade bonds and further out the yield curve to achieve their yield and return expectations. The market has shifted that paradigm on its head and allowed investors to truly get paid to wait on the sidelines in cash.

 Current Canadian Yield Curve

Source: Bloomberg, June 30, 2023

The short end appears to be the sweet spot for many investors, in terms of risk and reward.

Risk: by targeting the short end of the curve, investors will be minimizing their interest rate sensitivity (Duration exposure) and will generally be buying bonds that will be maturing in less than 1 year. Buying investment grade bonds, issued by high quality issuers, this close to maturity provides investors with downside protection as all these bonds will mature at par.[1]

Reward: Achieve a higher yield to maturity than further out the curve. Allowing investors to earn higher yields for lower interest rate sensitivity risk. The current market isn’t paying investors to lend money for longer periods. The front end provides an extremely attractive proposition for investors.

Today’s market is uniquely positioned and many market participants expect volatility to be on the horizon and as higher interest rates make their way through the economy, potentially causing growth to slowdown. Money market and short-term fixed income are well positioned for this environment, as investors can weather the potential volatility in the market while still meeting income and return needs. Continue Reading…

A Financial Guide for the Sandwich Generation: Navigating the Challenges of Caregiving

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By Aman Raina, MBA

 (Special to Financial Independence Hub)

As an investment coach, my job is to educate and empower people with the knowledge to make informed investment decisions and set them on their journey towards financial freedom. However, over the last several years, I’ve found myself on a unique financial journey of my own.

Several years ago, my father was diagnosed with dementia. As his ability to manage his and my mother’s financial affairs began to diminish, I stepped into the role of their primary caregiver. This responsibility, layered on top of raising my two young boys, growing my investment coaching practice, and navigating a global health emergency, placed me firmly within the Sandwich Generation.

The Sandwich Generation refers to those caught in the middle of caregiving, balancing the needs of aging parents with the needs of their own families. According to a report by the Pew Research Center, nearly half (47%) of U.S. adults in their 40s and 50s fall into the Sandwich Generation. They are responsible for a parent who is 65 or older and either raising a young child or financially supporting a grown child.

In Canada, according to a 2020 report from Statistics Canada, around one in four Canadians aged 15 and older (7.8 million people) provided care to a family member or friend with a long-term health condition, a disability, or problems associated with aging. However, these figures likely underestimate the true prevalence of caregiving, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased the demand for home care.

With an aging population, these percentages are predicted to increase in the coming years, further magnifying the importance of addressing the challenges faced by the Sandwich Generation and all caregivers. It has been and continues to be an experience that has been for me mentally, emotionally, and physically stressful, filled with difficult conversations, worries about the future, and moments of feeling overwhelmed.

Despite my financial background, there were times when the responsibilities felt like a juggling act. The multitude of financial decisions to be made, from managing cash flow and long-term care planning for my parents to ensuring the financial stability of my own family, felt daunting. If I was experiencing this, I shudder to think what others who were not as well-versed financially were trying to cope?

Support from Caregiver Groups

In seeking support, I turned to various caregiver groups. It quickly became apparent that many others were grappling with the same challenges. They, too, were struggling to tackle the unique financial demands of being part of the Sandwich Generation.

From my experience, I found the core areas caregivers need to focus on revolved around these critical financial issues: Continue Reading…

Retired Money: In Semi-Retirement, reducing stress may be more important than generating extra taxable revenue

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Pexels: Amir Ghoorchiani

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the trade-offs between leisure time and using time to generate extra but taxable revenue. Early in one’s career, there’s little choice but to generate taxable revenue but Semi-Retirement has a different dynamic. Find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline: Is semi-retirement stressful? You bet — here’s what to do about it.

One of my philosophies of Semi-Retirement is the principle that reducing stress can sometimes be more important than maximizing revenue. Assuming you are self-employed in Semi-Retirement, as I am, you may find yourself juggling multiple clients and conflicting demands on your limited time and energy.

Given the sporadic nature of freelancing, most freelancer writers or suppliers know how hard it is to turn down paying work. I was like that in my first stint at freelancing, back in the 1980s: long before I achieved a modicum of financial independence.

This time around, I have the luxury of being able to pick and choose. I’ve even stated this boldly to some clients: “My goal these days is to minimize stress, not to maximize taxable revenue.” Another way to look at this is the age-old dilemma of time versus money. It’s been years since I read the classic book on financial independence, Your Money or Your Life (by Vicki Robin and Joe Dominquez); however I’ve never forgotten their core message that time is life energy. When we earn money we do so by exchanging our time or in effect giving up some of our life energy.

There comes a time it’s time to say “Enough” to further expenditures of Life Energy

So it follows that if you have accumulated enough money after working a lifetime to accumulate it, then at some point it may be necessary to stop and say “enough!” when it comes to requests to expend still more of your life energy.

True, not everyone in Semi-Retirement is self-employed and enjoys the flexibility to make these trade-offs. More likely though, a semi-retired person is self-employed or working part-time on one or two gigs, while simultaneously collecting some combination of Government benefits, employer pensions, and investment income. The more secure those passive sources of income are, the less you may feel compelled to take on extra work requiring your time and life energy. Continue Reading…

Looking to invest in AI? Consider a large-cap tech ETF

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Canadians asking how to invest in AI may want to consider an ETF holding large-cap tech stocks with diversified exposure to the rise of artificial intelligence

Deposit Photos

By David Wysocki

(Sponsor Content)

The rise of AI has sparked a huge wave of investor interest. Generative AI tools like Chat GPT have many Canadians asking how they can invest in AI, or wondering if they’ve missed the wave of excitement around this new technology.

We believe that this latest wave of excitement around AI is only the first stage of investor interest in what could become a technological mainstay for years or even decades to come. There could be hiccups and corrections in this area of the market in the short-term, but in the long-term we believe in the investment prospects of AI technology.

The question remains, though, where can Canadian investors go to find AI exposure for their investment portfolios? We believe that Canadians looking to invest in AI could consider the prospects of a large-cap technology ETF.

What is AI and how do companies make money from it?

AI stands for Artificial Intelligence and AI technologies are essentially machines that can perform cognitive functions we normally associate with a human mind. These are functions like critical analysis, prediction, and the creation of original works. AI tools are all around us and have been integrated into technologies for almost three decades, whether in gaming, online shopping, or social media.

In 2023 much of the focus around AI has been on one specific subset: generative AI. Generative AI is a form of AI focused on the creation of original works. Generative AI tools can write text or code, create images, even generate audio and video.

The business applications of AI in general, and generative AI in particular, are wide. First and foremost, generative AI can help businesses operate more efficiently. Many repetitive process tasks such as writing technical guides, analyzing legal text, conducting background research or even generating graphics can be done with an AI tool.

AI, however, cannot replace human workers entirely. In their current state AI technologies can add efficiency and scale to certain tasks, but they are not replacing human workers — especially highly skilled workers — en masse.

Companies in the tech sector developing AI software, as well as hardware tools that support AI, are seeing immediate business impacts as their AI tools are now in demand from a wide range of industries. So far, large-cap tech companies have been leaders in this AI race.

Why large-cap tech companies are AI leaders

The rallying value of technology stocks in 2023 so far has been driven largely by large-cap tech companies. In a still-uncertain macro environment, investors have flocked to large-cap tech for the combination of market share, business fundamentals, and exposure to innovation that these companies bring.

One of the innovation trends that has peaked investors’ interest is the rise of AI, specifically generative AI: tools like Chat GPT or Dall-E that can generate an original image or piece of text. What has made this AI investment trend interesting, however, is that it has largely focused on large-cap companies.

Historically, when a new technology comes into investors’ focus, large-cap companies capture some positive growth trends, but the biggest gainers in the short-term are usually smaller-cap tech companies tied directly to the new tech. In the case of generative AI, there has been a paradigm shift. Large-cap companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft have been so quick to roll out and announce new AI tools that they’ve been some of the primary beneficiaries.

Put simply, large-cap companies have established leadership in the AI space. But, there’s another key reason why large-cap companies, especially combined in an ETF package, can be attractive for Canadians looking to invest in AI: diversification.

How diversified exposure can benefit an AI investor

It takes more than software to build a market-leading AI. The end output of a generative AI tool is built on incredibly complex algorithms, software platforms, cloud infrastructure, and — crucially — hardware like semiconductors.

Semiconductors are the fuel behind the rise of AI, as investors recently experienced through Nvidia’s stock boom. That spike followed forecasts from Nvidia of demand for its semiconductors from other large-cap tech companies building AI tools and platforms.

The rise of AI has had similar impacts on a range of different tech subsectors. It has impacted areas like tech devices, software, and hardware in different ways. Investors seeking exposure to AI can gain breadth of exposure through an ETF holding large-cap stocks from many tech subsectors.

The Harvest Tech Achievers Growth & Income ETF (HTA:TSX) works on the underlying investment thesis of investing in large-cap companies across the tech sector to gain diversification. HTA is designed to capture a range of growth opportunities in the technology sector, and the rise of generative AI has been a test case for the ETF’s long-term objective. Its varied exposure to large-cap companies in semiconductors, software, social media, and even IT services has allowed it to capture a wide range of positivity from investor interest in AI. Continue Reading…

Timeless Financial Tips #6: Aligning your Investments with your Time Horizon

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Lowrie Financial: Canva Custom Creation

By Steve Lowrie, CFA 

Special to Financial Independence Hub

I’ve spent my entire career railing against the dangers of market-timing — i.e., dodging in and out of markets based on current conditions. But there is a time when “timing” of a different sort matters. I’m talking about your investment time horizons.

Today, let’s look at how to use your personal time horizons to successfully separate today’s spending from tomorrow’s future wealth.

Spending and Investing over Time

One of the reasons we advocate for holding a diversified investment portfolio is because your investment horizons are diverse as well:

  1. For immediate spending, you’ll need cash reserves, which almost don’t count as investments.
  2. To preserve what you’ve already got and smooth out the ride, we turn to medium-term holdings such as bonds.
  3. For your long-term spending plans, nothing beats the overall staying power of owning a slice of the corporate pie, typically in the form of stocks, stock funds, or similar equity stakes in markets around the world.

On that last point, global equity markets are relatively dependable in one sense: by delivering on the success of collective human enterprise, they’ve delivered strong, inflation-busting returns in the long run. But these same markets are also quite chaotic in the near-term, with big, unpredictable price swings along the way. This means not all your dollars belong in this arena to begin with: only the ones you’re prepared to invest in for a good, long while. In other words:

Your cash reserves are for spending sooner than later. Your long-term investments are there for your future self, rather than as an ATM-like source for immediate spending.

Market-Timing vs. Financial Planning

How do you determine how long is “long-term” for your investments? Unfortunately, many investors use market-timing instead of personalized financial planning to decide when it’s time to move their money in and out of various positions. They pile into the action when markets surge and flee as they plummet. This is a timeless timing tragedy that foils the ability to preserve, if not grow, wealth over time.

Instead, use your own goals and investment timeframes to decide how much of your wealth to invest in pursuit of higher expected returns, as well as how much to shelter against the uncertainty.

  • For upcoming spending needs, your money may be best kept in cash or similar humdrum holdings. That way, it’s there when you need it. The catch is, cash and cash-like reserves aren’t expected to keep pace with inflation over time, which means your spending power gradually shrinks. So …
  • For spending that’s still years away, you’ll want to own positions that are expected to generate new wealth, rather than just maintain a status quo. That’s where the wonder of global enterprise comes in — aka, stocks. The catch here is, you must commit to keeping your future money patiently invested and ride out the downturns along the way.

Estimating your Time Horizon

Even if you’re committed to financial planning, it’s surprisingly common to underestimate how much time you’ve actually got to invest. For a couple retiring at age 65, there is a 50% chance one of you will live past age 90, which means your retirement timeline could be 25–30 years, or more. Extend it even further if you’d also like to leave a substantial financial legacy. Continue Reading…