Longevity & Aging

No doubt about it: at some point we’re neither semi-retired, findependent or fully retired. We’re out there in a retirement community or retirement home, and maybe for a few years near the end of this incarnation, some time to reflect on it all in a nursing home. Our Longevity & Aging category features our own unique blog posts, as well as blog feeds from Mark Venning’s ChangeRangers.com and other experts.

The ultimate guide to safe Withdrawal Rates in Canada (for any Retirement age)

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By Kyle Prevost, for MillionDollarJourney

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Most Canadians approaching retirement have two questions:

1.) How much can I take out of my investment portfolio each year if I want to be guaranteed not to outlive my money?

2.) Once I know the answer to my first question, can I live on that much money, plus whatever government benefits or private pension plan I might get.

The truth is that there are a TON of variables that go into answering these two questions for each person.  BUT the best that we’ve come up with so far is the “4% rule of thumb”.

That said, our 4% number (much more discussion on what this actually means below) depends on you optimizing your portfolio and withdrawal strategy.  If you’re embracing early retirement, and are looking at a retirement horizon of 30, 40, or even 50+ years, the 4% rule of thumb can still working surprisingly well for you!

Before we get to a discussion on the details of this handy tool and how it might apply to you, I should note that after talking to several financial experts in Canada, we all agree on one general observation about Canadian retirees:

It was really hard to get people who had been determined savers to spend their money!

Turns out that flipping the switch from a safe & investment mindset to an “enjoy life and spend nest egg” mindset is not as easy as one might initially think.

You’ve been reading MDJ for years, have used your Questrade DIY discount brokerage portfolio to accumulate a solid nest egg that includes your TFSA, RRSP, and perhaps even a non-registered account.  Now comes the time to start your retirement drawdown or withdrawal strategy. Surprisingly, when it comes to discussing Canadian safe retirement withdrawal rates, and and talking to folks who have retired at all ages, spending their retirement savings represented a massive mental strain for them.  I guess (as someone who has never retired or sold investments to pay for retirement) that I always thought that saving for retirement would be the hard part. Isn’t spending supposed to be more fun than squirreling away?

It turns out that once you get into that savings mindset, it can be hard to flip the switch back to enjoying spending the fruits of your labour.  This is especially true for folks who are looking at an early retirement withdrawal rate or strategy, because they are much more likely to have been super-aggressive savers during their time in the workforce.

Since this will be my first post for MDJ, I wanted to make it a real beauty.  I didn’t go into it expecting the topic to be so deep and full of variables! Afterall, the concept seems simple enough right?

How much can I take out of my investment portfolio each year, if I need that nest egg to last for 30, 35, 40, or even 50 years?

Personally, much like Frugal Trader, I’m hoping to retire sooner rather than later, so this question had particular relevance for me.  After diving into the math on this topic, it turns out that there are many things to consider when looking at how long your retirement savings will last, and it’s actually much more difficult to get a 100% mastery of, than the math involved with building an investment portfolio.  Use the table of contents links below to navigate the article if you’re short on time, or are only interested in one aspect of the extended article.

The 4% Retirement Withdrawal Rule

What the 4% Rule Means for Your Magic Retirement Portfolio Number

Potential Problems of the 4% Rule

How Has the 4% Rule Done In the Past

If I Want to Retire Early or do this whole “FIRE” Thing – Does the 4% Work for Me?

What Could Force My Retirement Into a Worst-Case Scenario?

Fees Suck – Get Rid of Them to Up Your Chances

Will The Returns of My Portfolio Look Like the Last 100 Years?

PWL Capital & Vanguard & the Shiller CAPE ratio

If Lower Returns Are the New Normal – How Does This Affect Me?

Sequence of Return Risk 

Avoiding the Worst-Case Scenario: Handling the First Ten Years to Reduce Your Risk

How Does OAS and CPP Factor into Safe Withdrawal Rates?

Emergencies or Tax Changes

Conclusion

The 4% Retirement Withdrawal Rule

Ok, so let’s maybe start with the rule of thumb that advisors have used when looking at retirement drawdown plans for a while now.

Back in 1994 a financial advisor named William Bengen looked at the last 80 or so years of markets and retirement, did a bunch of math, and arrived at a concept we now call “The 4% rule”.

The basic idea of the 4% retirement withdrawal plan is that someone could safely withdraw 4% of their investment/savings portfolio each year and – assuming a 60/40 or 50/50 split of bonds/stocks in their portfolio – they would never run out of money.  This idea of withdrawing a certain percentage of your portfolio to fund your retirement is called the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR). The math behind this magic 4% figure means that if you have the nice round $1 Million investment portfolio that we all dream of, you could safely pull out $40,000 the first year, and then adjust for inflation and withdraw 4% plus inflation after that. (So if there was 2% inflation between year one and year two, you could now withdraw $40,800.)

Bengen, and another highly influential study took their rule and retroactively applied it to retirees from every single year from 1926 to 1994.  They found that nearly 100% of the time (depending on what was in the investment portfolio) people could retire, and withdraw 4% of their portfolio for 30 years of retirement – and not run out of money.  In fact, a large percentage of the time, if retirees followed the 4% rule, they not only didn’t run out of money, they finished life with more money than when they started retirement!

Keep in mind, these authors didn’t worry about OAS or CPP, or a workplace pension, or even the tax implications of different types of withdrawals.  They were simply trying to come up with a useful rule of thumb for how much a person could safely withdraw from their retirement portfolio.

What the 4% Rule Means for Your Magic Retirement Portfolio Number

If you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio to fund your retirement, then the simple math tells us that if you can accumulate 25x your annual retirement budget, you no longer have to work. Continue Reading…

Retirement planning programs revisited

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More than a year ago I wrote a column for the Financial Post about a handful of Canadian retirement income planning software packages that help would-be retirees and semi-retirees plan how to start drawing down from various income sources: Click on the highlighted text to retrieve the full article: How you draw down your retirement savings could save you thousands: this program proves it.

The focus of the FP piece is Cascades but you can also find a MoneySense piece I wrote from late 2018 that looked at Viviplan, and one I wrote for the Globe & Mail last November that described Cascades, Viviplan and Doug Dahmer’s Retirement Navigator and BetterMoneyChoices.com.

Dahmer has been writing guest blogs on decumulation here at the Hub almost since this site’s founding in 2014. See for example his most recent one, or the similar articles flagged at the bottom: Top 10 Rules for Successful Retirement Income Planning. Dahmer says he’s pleased that others are waking up to the need for tax planning in the drawdown years: “Cascades provides a very good, easy-to-use introduction to these concepts.”

There may be as many as 26 distinct sources of income a retired couple may encounter, estimates Ian Moyer, a 40-year veteran of the financial industry and creator of the Cascades program described in the articles.

When he started to plan for his own decumulation adventure, six years ago, he felt there was very little planning software out there that was both comprehensive and easy to use. So, he hired a computer programmer and created his own package, now called Cascades.

Continue Reading…

Retirement not what many were expecting, and not in a good way: Sun Life survey

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My latest Financial Post column, which is on page FP 3 of Tuesday’s paper, looks at a Sun Life retirement survey released this morning. You can find it online by clicking on the highlighted headline: Canadians finding retirement is not all it’s cracked up to be.

So if you think Retirement is about eternal sea cruises and African safaris, you may be abashed by the Sun Life finding that almost one in four (23%) describe their lifestyle as a frugal one that involves “following a strict budget and refraining from spending money on non-essential items.”

Furthermore, many can expect to still be working full-time at age 66, which just happens to be my own age. And as you can see from this blog, I’m still working, if only on a self-employed semi-retirement basis.

In fact, among the 2150 employed Canadians polled by the 2019 Sun Life Barometer poll conducted by Ipsos, almost half (44 per cent) expect they’ll still be employed full-time at age 66. Among the “frugal” retirees still working after the traditional retirement age, 65 per cent say it’s because they need to work for the money rather than because they enjoy it.

In an interview, Sun Life Canada president Jacques Goulet mentioned most of the main reasons, few of which will come as a surprise to this blog’s readers. Mostly there is a failure to plan for Retirement early enough to save the kind of sums involved. Another familiar culprit is the ongoing decline of employer-sponsored Defined Benefit pension plans, which are becoming more and more rare in the private sector. Most of us can only envy the tax-payer backed guaranteed inflation-indexed DB pensions enjoyed by most government workers, politicians and some members of labor unions: a bulletproof source of income that you can’t outlive.

47% at risk of outliving their money

The alternative for many are employer-sponsored Defined Contribution pensions (DC plans), group RRSPs or personal RRSPs and TFSAs, which means taking on market risk and longevity risk. Both are challenges in the current climate of seemingly perpetual low interest rates and ever volatile stock markets, not to mention rising life expectancy. Even then, Goulet told me Canadians with DC pensions are leaving a lot of money on the table: $3 or $4 billion a year in “free money” that is obtainable if you enrol in a DC pension where the employer “matches” the employee contributions: typically 50 cents for every $1 contributed.

Finally, there is a large group that have no employer pension of any kind, or indeed any steady job with benefits, and these people are unlikely to have saved much in RRSPs or even TFSAs, which they should if they can find the means. This group may account for a whopping 47% of working Canadians, Sun Life finds, and about the only thing they’ll be able to count on in Retirement is the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) as early as age 60, Old Age Security at 65 and probably the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) to the OAS. These people would be better off continuing to work till 70 in order to get higher government benefits, a time during which they can build up their Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSA)s. TFSA income does not impact CPP/OAS/GIS, which is not the case for RRSPs and RRIFs.

Finally, a word about continuing to work into one’s 60s and even 70s. I know many who do, and not always for the money. I’m in the latter category myself, even though personally my wife and I could be considered the poster children for maximizing retirement savings, living frugally and investing wisely. There are worse things in life than going to a pleasant job that provides mental stimulation, structure and most of all purpose. Many of these ideas are explored in the book I jointly co-authored with Mike Drak: Victory Lap Retirement.

 

Healthy Aging: 8 tips for staying healthy after Retirement

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By Kelsi Burley

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Just because you get into your old age it doesn’t mean you have to slow down and stop exploring and living your life. A study by the U.S. Center for Disease Control found senior adults who were still in employment had better health than retirees of the same age. And older adults who worked in physically demanding jobs had the best health overall.

Physical activities are great for promoting health and keeping your mind sharp after retiring. The following are eight simple and fun things you can do to an awesome retirement:

1.) Find other people to exercise with

What makes a fun activity even more interesting is doing it with good buddies. If you can find just two people who share your interest for biking, mountaineering, cycling, bowling, or even fishing, you will find that your days start to get more interesting; and you will feel more energized and creative.

2.) Combine physical and mental exercise for healthy aging

One of the ways you can take care of both your physical and mental health is by taking up a less strenuous activity that engages both body and mind. So swimming can be great for your mental and physical health, but yoga is even better because it strengthens the muscles and joints, helps you to build energy, and promotes calmness and mindfulness: both qualities we need to stay healthy.

3.) Start watching TV with friends

Perhaps at a local joint where you can then walk home and grab some food on the way (basically establishing a routine that allows you to stay in contact with other people, and not withdrawing to yourself). Simple things like watching football in your neighborhood with people whose company you enjoy may not appear so important when you’re younger and obsessed with growing your business or attaining career goals, but when you’re older and left with few physical pursuits, finding time to enjoy the little things will help to keep you grounded and content. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: Should big savers still fear outliving their money?

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MoneySense.ca: Photo created by freepik – www.freepik.com

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column looks at the topic of whether average savers transitioning to Retirement really need to fear outliving their money. The piece picks up from a blog this summer from Michael James on Money, which will be republished in its entirety tomorrow here on the Hub.

You can access the full MoneySense column by clicking on the highlighted text: How long will your retirement nest egg last?  In addition to citing Michael J. Wiener’s work, the piece passes on the views of two prominent recently retired actuaries: Malcolm Hamilton and Fred Vettese, as well as my co-author on Victory Lap Retirement, ex corporate banker Mike Drak.

Like this blog, despite being online the column’s scope is somewhat constrained by a word limit. In fact, in an email, Hamilton told me he didn’t think such a topic could be addressed in just 800 or 900 words.

Actuary and retirement expert Malcolm Hamilton

“Why? We presume that good advice is universal … that it applies to everyone. It does not, particularly when addressing concerns about running out of money. For years I have looked for evidence that large numbers of seniors spent too much and suffered as a consequence. I haven’t found anything persuasive.”

No one knows how much Canadians should save or how quickly they should draw down their savings after retirement, Hamilton added: “Some people are frugal. They save heavily before retirement and spend sparingly after retirement, leaving large amounts to their children when they die. We all want parents like this. Others are spendthrift. They save little before retirement and live frugally after retirement because they have no money except government pensions.”
Finding balance between extremes of Over-Saving and Over-Spending