Building Wealth

For the first 30 or so years of working, saving and investing, you’ll be first in the mode of getting out of the hole (paying down debt), and then building your net worth (that’s wealth accumulation.). But don’t forget, wealth accumulation isn’t the ultimate goal. Decumulation is! (a separate category here at the Hub).

Eight questions to ask when evaluating a stock

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By Aman Raina, SageInvestors.ca

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

The process of trying to determine what stocks to buy and sell is a very repetitive and iterative experience. I’ve analyzed thousands upon thousands of stocks and the process I’ve used for each one has been the same. For any company being evaluated, an investor must ask the same fundamental questions over and over again in order to truly assess the investment opportunity.

The level of detail required to answer these questions are a function of time you have. If you have lots of time, you can dive more deeply into the nuances and intricacies of the company’s business model. For most investors, all that is needed is an understanding of the core elements of the business.

Make no mistake; these questions have to be answered at a basic level at a minimum in order for you to have complete understanding of the company before you commit your hard earned money to buying into it. Most people I’ve had the pleasure to work with and teach often buy stocks without even knowing what the company does or sells yet they can tell you all the specs of about their vacuum cleaner they have researched for 4 months. In my Everyday Investing course I teach, I help investors answer these questions. Below I’ve listed what I’ve determined to be the 8 questions you have to ask each time when evaluating a stock.

As we go through the questions I will put them into practice by using a stock I recently purchased as an example to illustrate. I recently made a decision to buy shares in CVS Health (Ticker: CVS).

1.) What do they sell?

Stocks are pieces of paper representing ownership of businesses. Companies are not created because nature dictated they should be. Profit-generating businesses are created to sell something, be it a product and/or service that the owners perceive society will want in large quantities. When you look at companies, it is the first fundamental question to ask. What are the core products and services that the company sells? Often in larger companies this can be answered by looking at how the company is structured with products and services often having their own separate divisions. In other cases if a company is structured by geography, the product lines will be found under each regional umbrella.

There are many sources from which you can get quick sysnopsis of a company. Here’s one I pulled from Valuentum Securities that describes CVS.

“ … The 2007 merger of CVS Corp and Caremark created the largest pharmacy health care provider in the US. The company has more than 7,800 retail locations and operates in 98 of the top 100 US drugstore markets. Its PBM business serves more than 60 million plan members. The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Rhode Island.

CVS recently acquired Target’s pharmacies and clinics and it will operate the acquired pharmacies in a store-within-a-store format. The deal expands its footprint of pharmacies by ~20% (adding more than 1,660) and clinics by ~8% (adding ~80 clinics)…”

CVS also purchased Aetna Insurance, one of the largest healthcare insurance providers in the US.  With this CVS aims to become a one-stop shop for health care services in the US using their drug stores as the prime distribution point.

2.) Who do they compete with?

Chances are the company is not the only one selling the same product or service. There are likely to be other companies offering a similar or slightly similar product at higher or lower price points. Understanding or being aware of the level of competition the company faces can give us insight into how large the demand is for their product and potentially how much revenue, profit and market share they can be expected to take in the future.

In the case of CVS, the company competes with other major pharmacy chains such as Walgreens, as well as the big retailers like Walmart and Costco. The acquisition of Target’s pharmacy footprint essentially makes them de facto direct retailers. With the purchase of Aetna, their competitive universe has now expanded to include the health care insurers, like United Health.

3.) Who buys their products and services?

You know what the company sells. Now you want to know who would actually buy their goods and services. Who are the main customers for the company? What are their characteristics and background? Why do they buy the product?

For CVS, their target market is anyone that is not well or anybody that is well and wants to stay that way. I’m being very simplistic here. Again, you could do a whole market research analysis or market segmentation of their client base if you have the time.

4.) Will they buy it over and over again?

How often will a company’s client base buy their products? Can they be counted on to be repeat customers? Repeat customers mean repeat revenues and the greater the repetition, the greater for long term sustainable cash flow which will ultimately bode well for the stock price. Continue Reading…

The Back Page 2020 Energy Surprise

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By Jeff Weniger, WisdomTree Investments

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

If the term “IMO 2020” doesn’t resonate with you, pay attention: it could be front-page stuff soon.

The International Maritime Organization is putting fuel cleanliness standards in place on January 1, 2020. But the shipping companies have been caught flat-footed, despite years of forewarning. Their scramble could have a bigger effect on 2019–2020 petroleum markets than OPEC deliberations.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the shipping industry used 3.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2016, about equivalent to Canada’s total output. The fuel supply chain could be upended, because the “light sweet” crude oil that you find in Texas is going to be in demand, while the portion of Canada’s production that is “heavy” will want for bids.

That’s because of the pollution dynamics of the oil varieties. Think about what ships use: “bunker fuel.” Filthy, thick and viscous—one step above the tar-like stuff used to pave roads. An important component of this fuel — the enemy — is sulphur, which leads to acid rain, the destruction of ocean ecosystems and respiratory ailments. And the full-scale attack on this generation’s Big Tobacco is underway.

The regulations weren’t decided yesterday, but you wouldn’t know it from the shippers’ snail-like efforts at preparedness. Outside the “Emissions Control Area” standard for areas such as the coastal waters of North America and Europe, sulphur content must fall to 0.5% by January 1, 2020, for a ship to be allowed to set sail. In some jurisdictions, violators will even face jail time.

Figure 1:  Sulphur Content: “IMO 2020” 

Figure 1_Sulphur Content IMO 2020

Heavy Western Canada Select oil, with all that thick, sticky, high-sulphur bitumen, is exactly the variety of oil that, when refined, results in the kinds of fuels the IMO is essentially banning.

Remember when Canadian oil reached a US$50 discount to light sweet West Texas Intermediate oil last year (figure 2)? Alberta was gushing oil with no easy route to buyers. The province’s OPEC-like production cuts of 325,000 barrels per day, recently reduced to 250,000 barrels, are a temporary solution. It works, as long as nothing unexpected wallops the supply/demand dynamic. Continue Reading…

Theranos’ Elizabeth Holmes and Wolff’s new Trump book: parallel cautionary tales?

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Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes and the book exposing the scam

Being a frugal kind of guy in Semi-Retirement, whenever possible I like to get books out from the library, whether old-fashioned physical books, e books or audio books. The main problem with this, however, is that you usually have to wait several weeks or even months to get to the head of the line for the latest bestsellers.

On a recent long weekend (the one before this one!) two bestsellers arrived the same day, which meant the pressure was on to read them in the three weeks allotted. Neither was likely to qualify for renewal, since there was a long queue of other readers waiting for their return.

The first, which arrived in e-book format, was Bad Blood, a book I had ordered several weeks earlier and has only recently slipped off the bestseller list. The other one was brand new: Michael Wolff’s followup book on Donald Trump, entitled Siege: Trump under Fire. On this one, I got really lucky, just happening to be in the library a day or two after the local branch’s local copy went on display.

Still, suddenly I had two books to read at once, which meant that anything else I either owned or was more likely to be renewable had to be put aside. No one said being frugal was easy!

I ended up reading both books over a long three-day weekend by adopting a strategy of reading a chapter in one, then switching to the next chapter in the other. Which is how I realized there were some fascinating parallels between the two books. It was something of a surreal experience, as I’m sure no one else on the planet would have read these two books simultaneously in this fashion.

Billionaires, or Thousandaires?

Both involve supposed American billionaires, although this point is debatable about both subjects. Trump’s billions are often supposed to be fanciful, which is why one New York Times columnist once earned Trump’s ire by dubbing him a “thousandaire.”

The other was a billionaire for awhile, at least on paper but these days she may not even be a thousandaire. I’m referring to Elizabeth Holmes, a young Stanford dropout who hero-worshipped Apple’s Steve Jobs and started a blood-testing company in California called Theranos.

The only problem, as Bad Blood recounts at length, is that apparently Theranos supposed ground-breaking technology didn’t work. Google Elizabeth Holmes and you can find a bunch of short videos that describe the sordid tale if you missed it the first time around and don’t wish to join the library queue for the book.

Blinded by ambition and the quest for fame and wealth, it appears Holmes and her much older partner/lover (Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani), cut numerous corners and forgot the first rule of health care is to first do no harm. They raised billions from investors, in the process fooling such retail giants as Walgreens and Safeway. Holmes had founded the firm in her early 20s and used her influential rolodex to suck in many investors who should have known better.  She also was famous for emulating Jobs and his attire of a black turtleneck sweater. And finally, as any number of Google searches will demonstrate, she pitched her voice a few octaves lower so as to impress prospects and investors with a deep baritone she must have felt would allow her to be taken more seriously.

Will Trump’s reign also end in tears?

Wolff’s Siege was released just a year after his previous Trump bestseller, Fire & Fury, and relies just as much on input from Steve Bannon. As I read and alternated chapters between the two books, it was fascinating to watch the unravelling of Holmes and to wonder whether Wolff was describing a similar unravelling of the Trump presidency. Certainly, Wolff depicts an isolated and desperate president and has predicted it will all end in tears: not necessarily ours but of Trump’s. Continue Reading…

Those TV ads about financial advisors

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By Darren Coleman

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

There is an Oscar Wilde quote that goes like this: “A cynic knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.” I think of it every time I see one of those Questrade TV commercials where the client meets with their wealth-management advisor so they can tell the person they are fired. Why? The fees are too high.

The commercials drive home the point that advice costs more than doing things yourself, which is no surprise. I’m also flattered because in one of the ads, the character has my name – Darren – and it makes me think I might be in that seat. But that’s as far as the similarity goes because in all the years I have been in this business no client has ever told me they are leaving because of my fees. Not one.

This is where I think those TV ads miss the point. The issue at hand should not be about price. It should be about Value.

All those ads focus on the price of advice and the implication is clear: that advisors are gouging their clients. The advisor gets to retire early because of fat fees while the client, according to the ads, loses up to 30% of their retirement savings to fees. While the math in these ads may be  questionable, the ads also ignore any benefit that the Advisor’s advice may bring.

The ads showcase clients not experiencing true value

Let’s explore what these ads are really about. What they showcase is that the client is not experiencing true value in the relationship. So, the client decides to go it alone and hire Questrade’s robot to do things for them. Questrade, and ‘robo-advisors’ as they are called in the industry, offer a discounted trading commission to do-it-yourself traders, along with pre-built portfolios for more passive investors. As there is no personalized advice on any financial matters for the client, the fees are much lower. Which is as it should be.

I, for one, would never use such a service. I don’t even like those robot vacuum cleaners; the one my wife bought always gets caught under the couch because it can’t find its own way out, which is annoying. I also dislike those robot attendants which more and more companies are using for navigating their telephone systems. And I use these analogies for good reason.

As far as handling your investments and financial matters, does going it alone or going with a pre-built model portfolio actually work? The evidence shows this is not the best solution for most people.

Behavioural mistakes rob people of bulk of their returns

Every year Dalbar, North America’s leading independent expert for evaluating, auditing and rating business practices, produces its annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviourstudy, which shows that most investors underperform their own investment portfolios. Year after year, investors buy and sell at the wrong times. They do this because they allow their emotions to get in the way. Consider it part of the human condition. Believe me, professional advisors know all about these tendencies: that behavioural mistakes rob people of the bulk of their returns.

For example, in March 2019, Dalbar calculated that the average investor lost more than twice as much as the market in the previous year! The average investor saw their portfolio drop by more than 9% while the market was down only 4%. And this was no fluke. Over a 20-year time period, these mistakes have continued and investors, on average, underperformed the broad market by about 4% annually. Continue Reading…

How to create a pension for the Average Joe: 65 with as little as $200K in Savings

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By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

We know many of our readers are not “average.” However, if average Joe can support his retirement on as little as US$200,000 savings, imagine what you can do with the amount you have!

By reading the chart below, you can see that the average spending for retirement households age 65 – 74 is US$46,000.


It is tough to make that $46k amount with only Joe’s savings, so what should he do?

Social Security

The average recipient today (in the United States) collects US$1,461 a month, or US$17,532 a year. Joe’s SS check is average and he has a wife who also collects the average Social Security amount.

$17,532 times 2 (people) = US$35,000 per year.

Not quite the $46,000 that they need but getting closer.

Hopefully, Joe has his retirement money invested in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market) or SPY (S&P 500 Index) and is making market gains equaling around 10% annually.


Here you can see that since the 1950’s — about when Joe was born — the S&P 500 has had an annualized return of over 11%, dividends reinvested, but let’s use 10% as a more conservative projection.

Remember, Joe has to make up $11,000 to match his average spending ($46,000). But let’s give Joe an extra one thousand dollars per year so he can pamper Mrs. Joe with occasional gifts and dinners out.

So, he needs $12,000 out of the $200,000 in savings per year to make up the difference in spending. That’s an extra $1.000 per month.

Invested in the S&P 500 — based on 69 years of returns and using 10% as the annual return — after his first year he would have $220,000 minus $12,000 withdrawal = $208,000.

Now Joe has $47,000 in annual income: $35,000 from Social Security and $12,000 from investments.

Plus, his $200,000 has grown to $208,000, a 4% gain outpacing inflation at the current rate of less than 2% per year.

Their Social Security payment is also indexed to inflation so as inflation rises, so will their Social Security. Continue Reading…