Tag Archives: Financial Independence

Why the 4% rule is actually (still) a decent rule of thumb

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By Mark Seed

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

I’m not a huge listener to podcasts but I do enjoy them from time to time – beyond the ever popular Joe Rogan Experience that is.

Recently, I found the BiggerPockets Money Podcast with financial independence enthusiast, financial planner, along with a host of other financial designations Michael Kitces very interesting.

For an hour+ the hosts of that podcast dove deep into the simple math behind the 4% safe withdrawal rate so many investors in the early retirement community rely on, and, why Michael Kitces ultimately believes the 4% rule actually remains a very good rule of thumb to plan by.

If you don’t have an hour and 22 minutes to listen to this episode (not many people do…) then no worries, I’ve captured the essence of the interview from this solid podcast below. Kudos to the folks at BiggerPockets for the deep dive.

Let me know your thoughts about the 4% rule in the comments section. I look forward to them.

Mark

Background – what is the 4% rule???

In general terms, the “4% rule” says that you can withdraw “safely” 4% of your savings each year (and increase it every year by the rate of inflation) from the time you retire and have a very high probability you’ll never run out of money.

Some things to keep in mind when you read this:

  1. This ‘rule’ originated from a paper written in the mid-1990s by a financial planner in the U.S. who looked at rolling 30-year periods of a 50% equity/50% fixed income asset allocation. His name was Bill Bengen.

4% rule

You can find the details of the report here.

2. This rule was developed almost 30-years ago. A lot has changed since then including real returns from bonds. There are also products on the market now that allow investors to diversify far beyond the mix of large-cap U.S. stocks and treasuries the Bengen study was based on.

3. The study was designed to answer the question: “How much can I safely withdraw from my retirement savings each year and have my nest egg last for the duration of my retirement?” Little else.

4. The study assumed (at the time) most retirees would retire around age 60. Therefore, a “good retirement” would be ~30 years thereafter; what is the safe withdrawal rate to make it through retirement until death.

5. The rule takes none of the following into account:

  • Will you (or your spouse) have a defined benefit pension plan?
  • Do you expect to receive an inheritance?
  • Will you downsize your home?
  • Do you have a shortened life expectancy or health issues that should be considered?
  • Will you continue to earn some form of income in your senior years?
  • And the list of what ifs goes on and on and on

My 4% rule example:

My wife and I aspire to have a paid off condo AND own a $1 M personal portfolio to start semi-retirement with in the coming years.

If we can grow our portfolio to that value, markets willing, the 4% rule tells us we could expect to withdraw about 4% of that million nest egg (or about $40,000 per year indexed to inflation) and have virtually no concerns we would run out of money for the next 30 years (mid-70s by then).

To the podcast and my takeaways!

On the subject of a 4% withdrawal rate – is that conservative?

Michael: Yes. If your time horizon is 30-years, it probably is. Because, when Bengen looked at his different rolling periods … he found the worst case scenario was a withdrawal rate of about 4.15%. “It was the one rate that worked in the worst historical market sequence…”

Does recent data say anything different since the 1994 study?

Michael: Not really. Continue Reading…

Tackling changes to your Retirement Income Plan

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Spending money is easy. Saving and investing is supposed to be the difficult part. But there’s a reason why Nobel laureate William Sharpe called “decumulation,” or spending down your retirement savings, the nastiest, hardest problem in finance.

Indeed, retirement planning would be easy if we knew the following information in advance:

  • Future market returns and volatility
  • Future rate of inflation
  • Future tax rates and changes
  • Future interest rates
  • Future healthcare needs
  • Future spending needs
  • Your expiration date

You get the idea.

We can use some reasonable assumptions about market returns, inflation, and interest rates using historical data. FP Standards Council issues guidelines for financial planners each year with its annual projection assumptions. For instance, the 2020 guidelines suggest using a 2% inflation rate, a 2.9% return for fixed income, and a 6.1% return for Canadian equities (before fees).

We also have rules of thumb such as the 4% safe withdrawal rule. But how useful is this rule when, for example, at age 71 Canadian retirees face mandatory minimum withdrawals from their RRIF starting at 5.28%?

What about fees? Retirees who invest in mutual funds with a bank or investment firm often find their investment fees are the single largest annual expense in retirement. Sure, you may not be writing a cheque to your advisor every year. But a $500,000 portfolio of mutual funds that charge fees of 2% will cost an investor $10,000 per year in fees. That’s a large vacation, a TFSA contribution, and maybe a top-up of your grandchild’s RESP. Every. Single. Year.

For those who manage their own portfolio of individual stocks or ETFs, how well equipped are you to flip the switch from saving to spending in retirement? And, how long do you expect to have the skill, desire, and mental capacity to continue managing your investments in retirement?

Finally, do you expect your spending rate will stay constant throughout retirement? Will it change based on market returns? Will you fly by the seat of your pants and hope everything pans out? What about one-time purchases, like a new car, home renovation, an exotic trip, or a monetary gift to your kids or grandkids?

Now are you convinced that Professor Sharpe was onto something with this whole retirement planning thing?

One solution is a Robo Advisor

One solution to the retirement income puzzle is to work with a robo advisor. You’ll typically pay lower fees, invest in a risk appropriate and globally diversified portfolio, and have access to a portfolio manager (that’s right, a human advisor) who has a fiduciary duty to act in your best interests.

Last year I partnered with the robo advisor Wealthsimple on a retirement income case study to see exactly how they manage a client’s retirement income withdrawals and investment portfolio.

This article has proven to be one of the most popular posts of all time as it showed readers how newly retired Allison and Ted moved their investments to Wealthsimple and began to drawdown their sizeable ($1.7M) portfolio.

Today, we’re checking in again with Allison and Ted as they pondered some material changes to their financial goals. I worked with Damir Alnsour, a portfolio manager at Wealthsimple, to provide the financial details to share with you.

Allison and Ted recently got in touch with Wealthsimple to discuss new objectives to incorporate into their retirement income plan.

Ted was looking to spend $50,000 on home renovations this fall, while Allison wanted to help their daughter Tory with her wedding expenses next year by gifting her $20,000. Additionally, Ted’s vehicle was on its last legs, so he will need $30,000 to purchase a new vehicle next spring.

Both Allison and Ted were worried how the latest market pullback due to COVID-19 had affected their retirement income plan and whether they should do something about their ongoing RRIF withdrawals or portfolio risk level.

Furthermore, they took some additional time to reflect on their legacy bequests. They were wondering what their plan would look like if they were to solely leave their principal residence to their children, rather than the originally planned $500,000. Continue Reading…

Retired Money: What I’m reading this summer in personal finance

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Amazon

My latest MoneySense Retired Money column is a mini review of roughly a dozen personal finance or Retirement books I’ve been reading of late, or intending to finish. You can find the full column by clicking on the highlighted headline here: 12 Top Personal Finance books to read this summer.

First up are a couple of macroeconomics books: Graham Summers’ The Everything Bubble: The Endgame for Central Bank Policy, first published in 2017. It describes what the author calls “serial bubbles” – not just stocks but virtually every asset class, including fixed income and real estate. The book also tackles the two sources of financial repression for retirees hoping to live on interest income: ZIRP and NIRP, which stand respectively for Zero Interest Rate Policy and Negative Interest Rate Policy.

Like it or not, the November 2020 U.S. election is likely to have an impact on investors and would-be retirees, no matter how it works out. Two years ago, my MoneySense column reviewed several other Trump books in an attempt to understand the investment implications of his presidency.

Have we reached Peak Trump?

Amazon

Since then, I’ve also read Peak Trump: The Undrainable Swamp and the Fantasy of MAGA, by David Stockman, published in 2019.  Peak Trump includes a chapter also titled The Everything Bubble. Stockman believes the Trump boom – aided by the Federal Reserve’s “rotten regime of Bubble Finance” — has been a mirage and is fated to fade away. Presidential incumbents usually win re-election if the economy and stock market stay strong, but that’s hardly a slam dunk after the depression-level unemployment and social unrest that has come about in the wake of Covid-19.

Dual citizen and political pundit David Frum has just released his second Trump book: Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy, a followup to his earlier Trumpocracy, which was mentioned in the link above. The blizzard of online and media reviews seem to suggest Frum believes Trump has lost the plot and may be vulnerable in the upcoming election.

With all this talk of asset bubbles and negative interest rates, it seems everyone is fated to worry about money and not just near-retirees. Worry-Free Money, by financial planner Shannon Lee Simmons, was published in 2017, and will primarily interest younger investors with a long time horizon. Simmons declares “everyone is worried about money” and says social media has only aggravated the situation. But if you’re worried she will nag you about things like budgeting, fear not: she gives reasons why “you need to stop budgeting.” Rather, you have to control your spending, living within your “hard limit” and say “No” to unhappy spending.

The Joy of Being Retired

For those closer to Retirement The Joy of Being Retired, by the prolific Edmonton-based international self-publishing master Ernie J. Zelinski, is a light read, with 365 reasons (and cartoons) on why Retirement Rocks “and Work Sucks.” Continue Reading…

How to fail at Early Retirement

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OPEN to your opportunities

By Billy and Akaisha Kaderli, RetireEarlyLifestyle.com

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

First, let me say Billy and I don’t really use the word “fail.”

We believe every situation offers learning opportunities and calling that experience a failure just doesn’t jibe with who we are. In our lives, we want to move forward with the knowledge and wisdom we’ve gained : not benchmark it emotionally by calling it a failure.

We read Financial Samurai’s Sam Dogen’s  piece on how he claims to have failed at early retirement.

We have great respect for anyone who puts their personal life out there to the public as a source of education and benefit for others, and Sam has done that.

Sam retired at age 34 with 3 million dollars (US$): six times more than we had, 30 years ago. Now, at age 42, he claims that he “failed” at early retirement (even with $250k passive annual income: 5 times what the average retiree has, for the following reasons:

They had a child (with all the costs involved including education at kindergarten level at $2k month)

He underestimated how low interest rates would go (he’s invested in bonds, real estate and dividend-producing stocks)

Rising health insurance premiums for his healthy family (which continue to rise in order to subsidize those who are less healthy)

The bliss of early retirement didn’t last as long as he thought it would, or in other words, he now wants to do more than play tennis and sleep in. (This statement is bewildering to us.)

Options, Choices, Opportunities

We at Retire Early Lifestyle have always focused on providing our readers with options. There is no one-size-fits-all for anything, so why try to fit into a limited description of your retirement?

We don’t believe Sam has “failed” at early retirement; we think he is locked into his own personal version of “limited thinking.”

Eliminate your Stinkin’ Thinkin’

For the continuing education of our readers, let’s look at his reasons one at a time. Continue Reading…

10 Millennials on how they approach planning for their Retirement

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The importance of planning for retirement is something every parent, mentor, and financial advisor will reiterate time and time again. While the general concept makes sense, it isn’t always accessible or palpable for all parties, especially millennials. Previous generations seem to have prioritized their finances, so what about millennials? How are they handling it?

Below, 10 millennials talk about their approach to retirement planning.

Admit that you don’t know

As a millennial, I think the greatest service that someone in my generation can do is admit that they don’t know what they don’t know: and then find someone who can teach them. Let’s face it, retirement planning is a convoluted phrase that doesn’t express its various nuances. My advice: if it is accessible, partner with a fiduciary financial advisor to help map out your future financial goals and create a plan. If it isn’t accessible at this moment, make it a habit of setting aside a few dollars each payday until you can hire a financial advisor. Action is important; however, informed action is what will serve you best in the long run. — Desiree Cunningham, Markitors

Avoid high fees

If you are an investor, you want to earn income on your retirement balance. Whether you are identified as a “Boomer” or “Millennial,” that desire doesn’t change. What you do tend to see with millennials in regards to their retirement plan is the avoidance of high fees. With a long road ahead to retirement, retirement planning fees can eat into a retirement balance.  — Kimberly Kriewald, AVANA Capital

Benefits, Benefits, Benefits

As a staffing agency, we’ve worked with hundreds of employers in helping them attract and retain talent. We have placed many millennials in roles over the years. The thing that helps put employers over the top in terms of ability to attract talent relates to the strength of an employee benefits package. When discussing benefits, a “401k” is often the first thing millennial candidates ask about. At this point, it’s almost an expectation that an employer offers a retirement plan as part of their offering. — Ryan Nouis, TruPath

Start early

Retirement has always been top of mind when financial planning. The earlier you start, the more time your money has to compound interest and accumulate wealth. This smart financial philosophy only gets stronger when you consider that most employers offer a dollar for dollar match up to a certain percentage. — Megan Chiamos, 365 Cannabis

Make ends meet

Many millennials are in a tough spot: they are trying to make ends meet in a difficult economy. Most millennials I know value building meaningful lives and experiences: above accumulating wealth. — Rebecca Longawa, Halong Esports

It varies

Before diving in, I think it is important to highlight the fact that the age range that constitutes a millennial is vast. Some are in their young ’20s and just entering the workforce, while others are in their ’30s and may have a family of their own. With that said, everyone’s financial situations are different. Some people have student loans, medical bills, family obligations, etc. and may not have the means to put away as much as they like. Others may have more freedom and the capacity to save up more. It really depends on the individual. — Shiela Lokareddy, UCSD Health

Compound interest

From what I understand, millennials are not putting as much money or thought into their retirement planning as generations prior. Continue Reading…