Tag Archives: indexing

What women want – and how to get it

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By Ed Rempel, CMA, Fee-for-Service Planner

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

There was a gasp from the audience, when this photo of a homeless woman was shown at a talk I recently attended.

A new survey shows that almost half of women fear they will become a “bag lady” someday. They fear being financially desperate and living on the street.

No job. No income. No partner. That is the fear.

 

I have asked thousands of people: “What’s important about money to you?” The #1 answer for women is security.1

What does “security” mean? It’s surprising how often the “bag lady fear” comes up. The #1 explanation is similar, but less severe:

Security: “Having enough so I never have to worry about money.”

Women want to know there will always be enough income for their family, for emergencies, and for the things that are important to their lifestyle. They want to focus on their life, their family and their friends and not have to constantly worry about whether they can afford it.

What does that look like and how do you get there? The answer might surprise you.

First, three questions:

1.) Jennifer has $2 million in stock market investments. This is:

A. Very risky.

B. Financial security.

 

2.) Financial security is:

A. No debt and safe investments.

B. Large diversified portfolio.

 

3.) Who is more secure?

A. Mary has no debt.

B. Andrea has a $200,000 mortgage and $1 million in investments.

 

Whether you ever become financially secure depends a lot on your picture of financial security.

Most people who want security do exactly the opposite of what they need to do to get it. The biggest mistake most people make is to think they can be financially secure by paying off all debt and having safe investments, instead of investing wisely for long-term growth.

I call this the “Zero Plan.” You retire with zero debt, zero investments (nearly), and zero income (except a bit from the government). People who do this are actually making it hard for themselves to have the nest egg they will need to be secure.

The truth is, investing very little money and buying low-return investments means you will never build up much of a nest egg.

What does financial security look like? What I have learned from experience helping thousands of people become financially secure is this:

Real security comes from having a huge nest egg.

A large portfolio of equities (stock market investments) is financial security. That’s what security looks like. Continue Reading…

Vanguard: The hidden $1.3 trillion player in active management

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Vanguard’s Daniel Wallick addresses financial advisors at 2018 Vanguard Investment Symposium

While the Vanguard Group is best known for being a pioneer of index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, it also happens to be one of the world’s largest practitioners of active management. In a presentation Tuesday in Toronto that is taking place across the country, Vanguard executives said the US$5 trillion of money it manages worldwide includes $1.3 trillion in active management.

Vanguard Investment Strategy Group’s Head of Multi-Asset Portfolios, Daniel W. Wallick, presented financial advisors with a framework for constructing portfolios that combine active and passive approaches to investing. The heart of Vanguard’s approach remains broad cap-weighted indexes (or so-called Beta), which is what Vanguard says it means when it uses the term “indexing.”

For many investors, the broad diversification, low costs and tax efficiency of its mainstream index funds and ETFs may suffice.

But, depending on the desired complexity, Vanguard can incorporate “factors” like momentum, value, or liquidity, all factors that have shown a persistency for generating alpha (outperformance) over long periods of time. Beta and Tilts (to for example, overweighting the home country or large market caps) can be combined for the single most important task of Strategic Asset Allocation but overlaying this can be the addition of potential “Alpha” sources like Security Selection and Timing.

“Strategic asset allocation through market-cap-weighted indexes makes for a powerful tool,” Wallick said. And over 10-year periods, asset allocation policy continues to be the biggest source of variations in returns. Asset allocation explains 86% of return variation in 303 Canadian balanced funds tracked by Vanguard, 91.1% of 709 balanced funds in the U.S., 80.5% of 743 balanced funds in the UK and 89.1% of 580 balanced funds in Australia.

Cost trumps talent, patience is crucial

The 3 keys to successful active management = long-term performance

Vanguard sees three keys to successful active management: Cost, Talent and Patience. Wallick described the in-depth process Vanguard uses to select subadvisors for its actively managed funds but hiring talent has to be within strict cost-control parameters.

“Cost is a powerful indicator of future alpha.” But once the talent has been identified and hired, patience is required: Vanguard research over 15 years found that of 2,200 initial funds, 22% survived and outperformed, 24% survived but underperformed, and 54% did not survive. But even among the 22% that survived and performed, 98% of them underperformed in at least four years.

By focusing on both low costs and rigorously overseeing actively managed subadvisors, Vanguard multi manager funds have outperformed their Lipper peer-group averages by various percentages: 78% of them over 1 year, 83% of them over 3 years, 76% of them over 5 years and a whopping 100% over 10 years.

Factor-based funds vs traditional active funds

There is a half-way position between traditional beta-based Style index funds and ETFs and traditional active funds. The former (Beta) provide low cost, low turnover and lower tracking error while traditional active funds provide the opportunity to add alpha, albeit at a higher cost, potentially greater volatility, and less transparency and control. Between these are factor-based funds and ETFs, which provide consistent targeted exposure as well as low cost, but may have higher tracking error and potentially higher turnover. Continue Reading…

This is Easy Street for Canadian investors

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By Dale Roberts

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Investing is simple. We are all familiar with the KISS acronym. Simplicity is the key to successful investing. I have been reading and studying investing and investment strategies for decades and came to the conclusion that for the most part “nobody knows nothing.”

Great. All that research and tens of thousands of hours of study and I came back to the fact that I don’t need to know much at all. What a complete waste of time? No not at all. The thousands of hours of study showed me why I, we, don’t need to know much. We do not need to be experts when it comes to investing. As I like to write: It ain’t rocket surgery. Here’s how you find Easy Street.

What is an investment portfolio? In its basic form we can think of a portfolio as having two components: great companies for greater growth potential and bonds to manage the risk. Those bonds work like shock absorbers on the portfolio to reduce the risk or volatility. The more bonds in the portfolio, the lower the risk level of the portfolio.

A typical portfolio will hold great blue-chip companies (stocks) such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Johnson & Johnson, Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett’s company), Coca-Cola and on and on. On the Canadian side we’ll hold Tim Hortons, the big Canadian banks, the telco companies such as Bell, Rogers and Telus, plus railroad companies such as CN and CP Rail and major energy players such as Suncor and Enbridge and on and on.

The rich are business owners

We know that the richest people on earth are usually business owners. We’re going to join them. We’re going to own a piece of those businesses. When enough of those companies do well, you do well. And certainly not every business is going to do well: that’s why you own a bunch of ’em. And that’s why you’ll own great companies in Canada, US and around the globe. And we don’t have to know how to analyze those companies, we can simply go and buy the ‘entire’ stock market. Here’s What is Index Investing and why it’s simply a superior form of investing. It’s so easy we call it Couch Potato Investing.

And back to risk or volatility. Certainly stock markets mostly go up over time, but they do correct or go down with regularity; it’s a normal and expected part of investing. For the potential of those 9-10% annual returns from stocks we need to accept some risk. Keep in mind that stocks can go down by 50% in major stock market corrections. That’s not everyone’s cup of tea to watch their investment portfolio get cut in half. That’s why many or most investors will need some bonds in the portfolio. Bonds are fixed-income investments and are typically less risky than stocks. A bond pays you a fixed payment on a regular basis and bonds can also go up in value when stocks go down – think teeter totter.

A portfolio with a very generous amount of bonds would have only decreased by about 10%-15% in the last major market correction. For the period of 2008 to end of 2009, here’s a comparison of the US stock market (S&P 500) as Portfolio 1, and a Balanced Portfolio as Portfolio 2.

We see that the all-stock portfolio declined by 50% while the Balanced Portfolio with a 70% bond component declined by just over 15%. By the end of 2009 that conservative Balanced Portfolio is almost back in positive territory while the all-stock portfolio still has more of that hill to climb.

Percentage in Bonds a critical decision

The most important decision that will be made, or the most important question answered will be “What percentage of bonds do you need?” What is your risk tolerance level? What roller coaster do you want to ride? You get to decide. Continue Reading…

Simple investing isn’t easy

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By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

In my last post I covered why simplicity often beats complexity, especially when investing.  To quote myself:  “Simplicity is … the art of designing good, simple habits you can effectively implement and readily sustain.”  This keeps you on track toward your personal financial goals, with minimum fuss and maximum cost-management.

So why doesn’t everyone invest simply?  Because it isn’t easy.  We’re often done in by a host of human habits like fear, greed, loss aversion and herd mentality.  These and many other instinct-driven biases trick us into abandoning our good, simple plans whenever the next “all you need to do …” trend comes along.

“All you need to do is buy some dividend-paying stocks and you’ll have the income you need.”

“All you need to do is buy a few ETFs and you’ll be all set.”

“All you need to do is buy a couple hours of financial advice to get you up and running.”

While dividend-paying stocks, ETFs and hourly advice might still have valid roles to play in your plans, these sorts of “how to invest” fads shouldn’t override why you’re investing to begin with.  Plain and simple, your “why” should be guided by your long-term financial goals, like how much wealth you’d like to create or preserve over what period of time.  Your “how” should be grounded in robust academic evidence and time-tested solutions.

Unfortunately, the data tells us investors are often unable to take it easy on hyperactive trading.  For example, a 2017 Vanguard white paper, “Principles for Investing Success,” found that investors would move in and out of mutual funds and ETFs alike in reaction to market mood swings.  They’d also pile into and out of funds according to recent Morningstar ratings.  Instead of patiently embracing an efficient, long-term discipline, they were buying hot, high-priced funds and selling them low, after they’d cooled off.

Vanguard concluded (emphasis ours): “Investors should employ their time and effort up front, on the plan, rather than in evaluating each new idea that hits the headlines.  This simple step can pay off tremendouslyin helping them stay on the path toward their financial goals.”

Simple?  You bet.  Easy?  The evidence suggests otherwise.  That’s why I prefer to work with families upfront and ongoing with respect to their planning and investing.  That’s the only true way I know to ease their way over the long haul.

Steve Lowrie holds the CFA designation and has 25 years of experience dealing with individual investors. Before creating Lowrie Financial in 2009, he worked at various Bay Street brokerage firms both as an advisor and in management. “I help investors ignore the Wall and Bay Street hype and hysteria, and focus on what’s best for themselves.” This blog originally appeared on his site on June 5, 2018 and is republished here with permission. 

Why simplicity beats complexity

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By Steve Lowrie, CFA

Special to the Financial Independence Hub

Complexity. It’s hard to avoid.  Tune into the news, and something’s always breaking.  Even in your own life, how many “other” tasks get in the way of the good stuff?

I’m not suggesting you should only do what is immediately gratifying.  There’s considerable enjoyment to be found in taking on tough challenges.  But today I want to focus on why simplicity beats complexity, especially when it comes to your personal finances.

Simplifying your investments

When it comes to writing about investments why reinvent the wheel?  I agree with every point “A Wealth of Common Sense” blogger Ben Carlson makes in this excellent piece, “Why Simple Beats Complex.”  Instead of writing an overly repetitive post, I recommend you give this a read.  Basically, we are prone to using our oversized brains to over-complicate things, especially investments.  Simple advice:  Don’t do that.

Simplifying your finances

While I don’t want to split hairs, there is a subtle, but incredibly important difference between financial goals, financial plans and financial planning.  Knowing the difference helps simplify all three. Continue Reading…